NPD June 2009

Because the article stated percentages revolving around the whole US and not just console gamers with statements like "72% of America plays games". Well if NPD felt its study encompassed all of America then 1% or 2% of respondents would be equivalent to 3-6 million Americans. Even if you removed people age 0-5 as being too young to game, you still have 270 million people, which meant 2% was roughly equal to the PS3 userbase at the time.

Ok Hmm... I immediately assumed it has to be 2 % of the people that owns a console in the first place, which at that time would have put it 500k, which to me sounds reasonable. It could be just an error in the interpretation. I quess the original study is nowhere to be seen?
 
prolly has an influence though another reason is perhaps ps3 owners are likely to be richer (more expensive console + we know in the US the average ps3 owner is older than the average xbox360 owner)

I actually did the numbers before on a number of games, but at an equal install base the 360 sold more copies than the PS3 in a number of multiplatform games (e.g. Madden and NCAA). It is a reliable trend in most consoles that as a platform install base grows a titles attach ratio, even with significant sales increases, decreases as a general trend. I have posted these results in these threads quite a few times, but simply game tie ratios don't parallel install base increases. If the PS3 Madden sells 1M copies in August this year and the PS3 install base doubles in the next year in the US, Madden PS3 sales in next August won't double. But my point was that at similar install base sizes 360 sales in a number of annual franchises were larger than the PS3 sales at a time of similar install base so the "current" tie ratio of software units to consoles cannot be drawn out directly with platform install base growth because as it grows the new consumers, for a variety of reasons, don't trend in parallel.

For these reasons I don't accept the "PS3 owners have more money and buy more games." In fact just looking at the 360 install base and the lower price of entry the tie ratio of software should be dilluted with non-core consumers, but the annual software tie rate indicates there is a healthy segment who adopts software at a rate to offset this segment.
 
prolly has an influence though another reason is perhaps ps3 owners are likely to be richer

Considering how much said people bitch about the cost of Live, Wifi, etc. then I honestly doubt that is the case. On top of that, PS3 owners tend not to buy so many games, which must denote less disposable income.
 
I actually did the numbers before on a number of games, but at an equal install base the 360 sold more copies than the PS3 in a number of multiplatform games (e.g. Madden and NCAA).
whoops, I think you better check your 'facts'
as From my looking at the NPD data with both madden 09 + NCAA 09
the ps3 version in fact performed better than the xbox360 relatively

Whilst no doubt there are games that have performed relatively better on the xbox360 the two titles you listed did not :)
 
whoops, I think you better check your 'facts'
as From my looking at the NPD data with both madden 09 + NCAA 09
the ps3 version in fact performed better than the xbox360 relatively

Whilst no doubt there are games that have performed relatively better on the xbox360 the two titles you listed did not :)

You misunderstood what he wrote. He is saying that he went back and looked at the sales of Madden & NCAA from the prior year when the 360's userbase was closer to what the PS3's was a year later when Madden '09 and NCAA '09 came out. The 360's attach rate for Madden '08 was higher than the PS3 attach rate for Madden '09. Not much higher, but it was higher.

The 360's attach rate also dropped between Madden '08 and Madden '09 (and so did the PS3's for that matter) as the userbase grew.

The data backs up what he is saying, as does common sense. The notion that one can just assume that software sales can be scaled with userbase is a fallacy and this is just one example of why.
 
yes my simple naive method, Ive used a more accurate method below.
Im was just reporting the fact in the month of june2009 maybe it was an anomaly but the ps3 had the highest attach rate, due to the numbers being cut off at 20,000 the actual attachrate figures will be a bit better.
whilst 0.1682 vs 0.1618 only looks like 4% difference it is in fact larger due to the 20,000 cutoff giving greater benefit to the larger installbase

a more accurate figure is after normalizing the installbase, do the math + its
ps3 -------- 0.1682 games per console
xbox360 -- 0.1282 games per console
which is a 31% difference
You're assuming that the < 20000 sales will disproportionately favour the PS3, but it's not that simple. The 360 has more games, and therefore, the numbers lower than 20K may actually have significantly more 360 sales than PS3 sales.
 
You misunderstood what he wrote. He is saying that he went back and looked at the sales of Madden & NCAA from the prior year when the 360's userbase was closer to what the PS3's was a year later when Madden '09 and NCAA '09 came out. The 360's attach rate for Madden '08 was higher than the PS3 attach rate for Madden '09. Not much higher, but it was higher.

The 360's attach rate also dropped between Madden '08 and Madden '09 (and so did the PS3's for that matter) as the userbase grew.

The data backs up what he is saying, as does common sense. The notion that one can just assume that software sales can be scaled with userbase is a fallacy and this is just one example of why.

Thank you! Now I don't have to waste my time replying to his snarky ,"whoops, I think you better check your 'facts'" remark.

I actually ran these numbers in these NPD threads multiple years on multiple titles. I stopped doing this because people pretty much ignored the data and I abandoned any attempt at rational duscssion in these threads because people "misread and insult" and make basic assumptions (like stringing out sales ratios relative to install bases) which makes the discussion very circular.
 
Can we really draw any conclusions from that data? Isn't it better to look at attach-rates across similar periods directly? It seems that using different games sales across different years just introduces far too many variables.
 
Can we really draw any conclusions from that data? Isn't it better to look at attach-rates across similar periods directly? It seems that using different games sales across different years just introduces far too many variables.

The survey I did covered quite a few franchises from multiple years and only serves to demonstrate the fallacy of extrapolating sales from an increased install base on the basis of an install base increase.

Following your suggestion, looking at attach rates across similar periods, is pretty much irrelevant to my point in it gives no baseline to contrast the impact of a growing install base.

But as mrcobro noted, my point is common sense and you can see it with nearly every title in every generation. Even really successful games that have an increase in sales see a decline in attach rate--they just don't scale linearly in almost every case. If the 360 Madden is selling 2M units a year now, if in 2011 the 360 install base doubles from the 2009 version the number of units sold won't double based on normal trends. A game like Halo Reach, even if it is a better game than Halo 3, won't double Halo 3s pace to 8M units even with a double-fold user base increase.

There will always be different factors (multi-console ownership, title quality and cross platform disparity, competitive launch titles, etc) that may individually impact selective analysis but a brief browsing of historical console software attach rates across platforms and selective analysis this generation holds this trend to be generally true.

Hence pointing out a titles attach rate on a platform with a smaller install base as a direct point of reference to extrapolating sales for future titles as the install base increase OR as some kind of metric to compare/contrast against another platform is really unfounded.

Now if a title on a smaller platform has a lower attach rate than a larger platform that is another issue. If a title (lets say "GTA") sold had a 10% attach rate on the PS2 and a 5% on the Xbox this would be an indicator of user demographic, title quality, impact of delays and marketing, and so forth. This phenonema was quite common on the GCN where there were a lot of titles that were delayed, had poorer quality and lacked certain features, and sometimes missed the marketing push. Toss in demographic differences, often compounded by these issues early on, the attach rate on many multiplatform titles lagged and was an indicator to publishers to move their investments elsewhere, even when Nintendo was making a big push with big price drops that resulted in install base growth.
 
My main concern is that for several of those yearly franchises, it seems like we're seeing fatigue set in -- Madden's not selling as well as it did a couple of years ago. I accept your hypothesis, though.
 
My main concern is that for several of those yearly franchises, it seems like we're seeing fatigue set in -- Madden's not selling as well as it did a couple of years ago. I accept your hypothesis, though.

Not selling as well by absolute numbers or by attach rate?
 
A game like Halo Reach, even if it is a better game than Halo 3, won't double Halo 3s pace to 8M units even with a double-fold user base increase.
Its a pity you picked halo
since halo2 did even better than halo1 relativey :) or do you disagree

Im sorry if you thought my comments snarky

Whilst no doubt there is a grain of truth to what youre saying, it doesnt always hold up (see halo et al)

My original point (+ the facts bear it out) today crossplatform games tend to have a better tie-ratio sales on the ps3 vs the xbox360.
Remember a couple of years ago WRT xbox360 there was a lot of talk every month about tie-ratios, best ever yada yada (eg see the MS press releases) but now since one the competitors is doing better, it suddenly has become 'irrelevant'
 
Your still completely ignoring the fact that as install base increases, attach ratios decrease.

It was shown to happen on PS1 and PS2, both of which had great software sales and large install bases.

It is happening with X360 and as PS3 install base gets large it'll happen to the PS3 also.

The other fact you are ignoring is that the attach rate overall for X360 has been larger than PS3 both when the install base is the same size AND at the same point in their lifespan.

In other words the attach rate of PS3 with 7+ million install base is smaller than attach rate of X360 at 7+ million install base. Likewise for PS3 at 32 months and X360 at 32 months.

What is worrying when considering PS3 is that it's showing the attach rate effects of a larger install base, but without the sell through benefits of a larger install base.

Regards,
SB
 
I don't worry about it. But I find it fascinating to watch the evolution of consoles and the market dynamics. Going all the way back to the Atari 2600, Intellivision, and Odyssey.

Likewise with computer gaming going all the way back to the Apple ][, C64, Tandy TRS-80...

And I have a vested interest in Sony dong well because I would eventually like a PS3 if the price ever comes down into a range where I can justify shoe-horning it into my budget. And in that regards Sony's current financial situation is worrysome for me not only in terms of the PS3, PSP (which I own), future PS4, but also Sony as a whole (I generally like their stuff).

Regards,
SB
 
Not selling as well by absolute numbers or by attach rate?

Absolute. Madden's on a downturn, Guitar Hero seems to be too. WE is down, but I'm not sure if Fifa's picked up the slack. Non-yearly releases are better-off, I think. GTA was up, Halo was up.
 
Its a pity you picked halo
since halo2 did even better than halo1 relativey :) or do you disagree

Ahem, so you think Halo Reach in 2010 is going to sell a similar (or better) units soft:hardware ration in its first 6 months relative to Halo 3 in 2007 ...

As Silent_Buddha said you seem to be missing my point and not addressing it...

Whilst no doubt there is a grain of truth to what youre saying, it doesnt always hold up (see halo et al)

I took care to leave many notes of generality and trends in my post. It is a general trend, not a moral absolute with no exception. Halo 1/2 is an example of a dynamic shift in market: Halo 1 had extremely song sales on a launch platform (first Xbox) due to strong word of mouth and established itself as a killer app. Halo 2 reaped that build up of an install base that was initially highly focused around Halo and had the benefit of the launch of Live. There is always the potential for Uncharted 2 to follow a similar "besting the first" path as benig a better title and the first "cuttings its teeth" and establishing positive word of mouth (even with low sales).

But these weren't really the trends I was noting... it is worth going back and reading it now if you wish.

My original point (+ the facts bear it out) today crossplatform games tend to have a better tie-ratio sales on the ps3 vs the xbox360.
Remember a couple of years ago WRT xbox360 there was a lot of talk every month about tie-ratios, best ever yada yada (eg see the MS press releases) but now since one the competitors is doing better, it suddenly has become 'irrelevant'

Tie ratios weren't tossed out as the "discussion" in the past from MS was the software units:hardware tie ratios--not "Xbox 360 titles have a better tie ration than PS3 titles in multiplatform games." I am sure there were examples of such, but by Summer 2007 when the first major multiplatform games were hitting franchise tie ratios were higher on the PS3--but lower than the 360's previous year and overall PS3 software tie ratios were lower (overall and staggard) and the 360 was selling more in general.

Totally different issues. Red herring even. It isn't irrelevant either--the Wii has slowly turned into a software monster while stepping outside traditional software evolution.

Putting stock in the PS3 having a higher ratio of Madden or NFS titles to hardware units as something relevant is quite lame on its own and is pretty much irrelevant by itself as there is a general and regular trend that as a platform install base grows software title ratios decrease even if general sales of the title increase.

I would be willing to bet, for example, that if we picked 5 annual franchises on the PS3 (or 360) that sell more than last years version that we will see at least 4 of the 5 have a lower tie rate. Sales up, tie ratio down... and what does this tell us? Nothing outside of platform diversification. There will be titles that break the mold, but if they are multiplatform you will typically see that mirrored outside of edge cases (e.g. see Prototype which had stiff cmpetition from Infamous on the PS3).

Btw, have the Wii or PS3 surpassed the 360's software:hardware tie ratio? That was the number MS focused on and you are indicating this is now surpassed. I didn't think the PS3 passed it and the Wii has more console units but similar software sales so its tie rate is lower per unit (obviously now being made irrelevant by marketshare).

I would be interested to see if the PS3 has a higher software tie rate now as you indicate.
 
Absolute. Madden's on a downturn, Guitar Hero seems to be too. WE is down, but I'm not sure if Fifa's picked up the slack. Non-yearly releases are better-off, I think. GTA was up, Halo was up.

Per-platform Madden is selling better absolute numbers every year on the next-gen HD consoles compared to the previous year (the 360 even elipsing the PS2 the last couple years in launch sales). Just looking at the first 2 months of sales in 2008 and 2007 clearly shows an increase in sales for these platforms:

Madden NFL 09 (360) -- 1,000,000 (Aug) 224,000 (Sep)
Madden NFL 08 (360) -- 896,600 (Aug) 173,000 (Sep)
Madden NFL 07 (360) -- 575,000 (Aug) 250,000 (Sep)

Madden NFL 09 (PS3) -- 643,000 (Aug) [100k-158k] (Sep)
Madden NFL 08 (PS3) -- 336,200 (Aug) did not track (Sep)

Sources
http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/folder.php?fid=23&page=3
http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_August_2007
http://www.gamesetwatch.com/2008/10/analysis_the_puzzling_case_of.php

Remember, it was in 2007 that Madden "spiked" in terms of alltime sales across all platforms--a year when the franchise had its furthest "reach" on active platforms (i.e. market condition driven, not so much franchise strength related). As a general August sales can be doubled to get the typical average Aug-Dec sales, toss in all the other platforms (PS2, Wii, PSP, NDS, PC) and "bargin bin" sales after the season this franchise is still charting industry leading numbers. Just on the PS3 and 360 what did Madden do last year--a little over 3M units?

Which is an increase from 2008 sales on those platforms.

The x-factor of course has been the slow consumption of HD consoles, the death of last gen sales, and the divergent demographic of the Wii and its the fact it killed continuity that the franchise had built.

I am curious on what grounds you determined Madde was on a down turn. The franchise is about 20 years old and it isn't very tired as the NFL is massive as is the NCAA and EA is the only game in town.
 
I'm not looking at HD growth, I'm comparing to total sales, including PS2, for the year. I can find aggregate sales for 2008, but not for earlier years -- I thought Edge had a list, but seems not. It seems that the PS2 version would pull an easy 3 million on its own, and it did this in years where 2k was still in the running (and selling over a million). It seems the Xbox version could get another million on its own a couple of years. Maybe it's not down (2008 says 5.25m across all SKUs), it just seems that way because the split userbase means we don't see the full numbers on yearly top 10 lists which means we don't have figures for total sales -- 360 version sold 1.8 million last year, and it was the only Madden game to show up. I still wouldn't call it year over year growth, it seems more stagnant than that.

I do take back what I said about GTA's growth, it seems to have done as well as San Andreas did in 2004. Halo still seems up, though.
 
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