NPD June 2009

[RobertR1]

Ah, never even thought about the release date. Still, usually the first week is big and the weeks after are slow. Seems like it will hit less than 1 mil on each platform. Not sure if that's good enough with the huge roster of fighters they had to pay for.

I thought putting vintage Mike Tyson on the cover would drive sales by itself. The Fight Night crowd has been begging for Mike since the series started.

Actually it's 2 weeks for Fight Night. NPD coverage period = May 31st to July 4th. The game came out a week early on June 23rd.

I can't imagine this being a success for EA. This should have been doing UFC like numbers. I expect it to be off the charts (even top 20 would be impressive) next month. I believe the round 4 demo was in the Live 10 top list for the week announced. Going my reactions of various forums, many people were put off by the lack of face button punching. They should have never taken it out, regardless of how good the stick is.

 

[obonicus]

Looks like the 360 crowd is more drawn to UFC.

But UFC sold along install-bases, as usual, last month. It probably will have this month too, but ~160k is somewhere under #10. FN4 is an anomaly.

 

[Acert93]

What's up with FNR4 numbers being so close for each platform?

Looks like the 360 crowd is more drawn to UFC.

It also follows a trend I've noticed where popular franchises from the prior gen have disproportionately high attach rates on PS3 compared to new IP.

Besides strong sales from another fighting game (UFC) and Prototype garnering strong numbers lacking on the PS3 (cut into by Infamous) another possibility is that FNR3 was an early big seller on the 360 (not sure it did relatively as well on the PS3--did it?). While that would usually have a positive effect, between some bad vibe about the controls and the competition and FNR3 already filling what is a niche market on the 360 maybe. It could be a strong PS brand, or demographically appealed relatively better. I would say other strong sales and a strong fighting game had a factor though.

Fight Night is a great game. Too bad it didn't sell better. I wonder if it was the buttons or just competition from UFC? If it was the buttons, I had no idea the buttons were such a big issue. I wonder how many people played the demo vs buying the final product.

I was excited for this until I couldn't get my punches to work regularly.

 

[obonicus]

Prototype apparently did 180k on PS3. Underperformed across install-bases, but not as bad as as, say, MLB2k did.

 

[mrcorbo]

But UFC sold along install-bases, as usual, last month. It probably will have this month too, but ~160k is somewhere under #10. FN4 is an anomaly.

Looking back to last month I see you are right. With the 360 version of UFC being the top game last month overall, I missed the fact that the PS3 version had a comparable attach rate (or at least it didn't make a lasting impression).

I don't think FN4 is an anomaly at all though. When you go back and look at COD4, DMC4, GTA4 (taking into consideration how heavily this was pushed on 360), NCAA Footbal 09, Soul Caliber IV...(I could go on right up to SFIV) many long-running franchises and particularly ones that were popular on PS2 remain disproportionally popular on PS3 just as many of the (few) franchises that were notably popular on the original XBOX remain disproportionally popular on the 360. Not too surprising, really.

 

[Rangers]

stolen from gaf:

YOY

PlayStation 2 -1%
PlayStation 3 -59%
PSP -52%
Xbox 360 +9%
Wii -46%
Nintendo DS -2%

This is where the 360 price drop shows up. You sometimes see people say "360 price drop didn't work, it's sales are essentially flat year over year". But when you see the two competitors dropping on the order of 50% while 360 holds steady..that's where it shows up, I guess due to the recession.

Also credit VVGchartz for this, YoY +/- for the first half of 2009 versus 2008.

Wii -444,700
X360 +279,600
PS3 -488,200
DS +914,800
PSP -563,300
PS2 -490,300

The "Sony family" is just hemorrhaging..for example the PSP drop jumps out.


As to software, UFC is a monster hit..poor EA, they're on Dana White's very bad side now As apparently they scoffed when UFC first approached them about doing a game. 360 UFC sales alone are around ~1 million now, with another 400-500K PS3, just in the US.

Infamous shows legs.

One thing I thought interesting was the top 2 Wii games this month were third party, specifically EA, rather than Nintendo. EA's Wii strategy paying some fruits?

Wii hardware appears to have stabilized, rather than dropping even further.


The HD twins did beat the Wii.

Month over month June vs May 09 hardware weekly sales +/-% (adjusted for 5 weeks versus 4):

Wii 0%
360+10%
PS3+1%
DS-3%
PSP +30%
PS2 +4%

(suddenly the Sony family looks much better)

Overall another hum drum, recession drenched month. Even the 5 week month couldn't lift the raw totals up beyond drab levels.

Here's a tidbit from a GAF poster about when the PS3 may break it's YoY decline trend

8 straight months of being down yoy is a fine consolation prize. And unless it sells 225k next month which seems unlikely that will be the 9th.


Its best chance to break that lucky number trend at 10 will be August at 185.4K.

Seems if they price drop in August, it would be likely. If they dont, then very unlikely. But I guess the point is if they get a price drop, breaking the YoY declines would be in sight.

I think it's also interesting that a case can be made, again a GAF comment brought this to my attention, that 360 is getting closer and closer to Wii hardware sales (still a long way off, and I'd need to see more of a trend there). Another interesting thing is that 360 is seeing YoY increases in it's 4th year, when a consoles 3rd year is supposed to be it's strongest. This can easily point to a lengthening hardware cycle imo. However, 360's third year was a very weak one (it was stuck at a high price, and PS3 was very strong with MGS4), making the YoY comps easy. But I guess in the end it doesnt really matter why it happened. 360 is doing better later, because it got a major price drop later, which still points to the lengthening cycle. The thing is I dont feel like 360 has hit it's mainstream stride at all yet really, still think the price is high. But now we're approaching an unknown effect called Natal, which is going to possibly throw whatever predictable track the 360 was on out of whack, for good or for just as easily bad I feel (Natal being packed in may prevent a normal 360 price cut that would have otherwise occurred, and draw more fickle casuals). We'll see.

 

[obonicus]

What was pushing the PSP last year? I realize very little interesting has come out for it this year and last year had GoW, but is that it?

 

[AzBat]

Aaron Greenberg tweet...

Some #Xbox360 numbers to share that #NPD does not report -> Xbox LIVE paid downloads from Jan-June grew 73% over last year.

Tommy McClain

 

[Rangers]

more

PS3 RED FACTION: GUERRILLA 67,486
PS3 KILLZONE 2 26,696
360 HALO 3 62,546
360 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE GOTY ED 71,175
360 GHOSTBUSTERS: THE VIDEO GAME 192,298
360 CALL OF JUAREZ: BOUND IN BLOOD 23,684
360 GEARS OF WAR 2 21,516
WII THE CONDUIT 71,913

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Aaron Greenberg tweet...



Tommy McClain

Whoa...that's huge...

Could be due to the global recession. DLC being much cheaper than a 50 USD retail game.

Regards,
SB

 

[-tkf-]

Wow where is the PS3 version of Prototype?

I guess Infamous may have caused some issues.

Since Infamous is considered the better game i guess they bought that instead. A mild surprise

 

[RobertR1]

NPD got leaked big time this month:

PS3 FIGHT NIGHT ROUND 4 210,335
PS3 INFAMOUS 192,674
PS3 UFC 2009 UNDISPUTED 187,895
PS3 PROTOTYPE 179,210
PS3 GHOSTBUSTERS: THE VIDEO GAME 103,413
PS3 TIGER WOODS PGA TOUR 10 96,539
PS3 RED FACTION: GUERRILLA 67,486
PS3 CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR 38,798
PS3 MLB '09: THE SHOW 38,000
PS3 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE GOTY ED 37,149
PS3 BLAZBLUE: CALAMITY TRIGGER 36,570
PS3 TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN 35,351
PS3 KILLZONE 2 26,696
PS3 RESIDENT EVIL 5 23,267
PS3 X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE UNCAGED ED 22,359
PS3 FIFA SOCCER 09 21,209
PS3 GUITAR HERO: SMASH HITS 20,909

WII EA SPORTS ACTIVE BUNDLE 289,083
WII FIT W/ BALANCE BOARD 271,556
WII TIGER WOODS PGA TOUR 10 MOTION PLUS BUNDLE 204,899
WII MARIO KART W/ WHEEL 202,137
WII PUNCH OUT!! 148,754
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE 146,149
WII THE CONDUIT 71,913
WII GHOSTBUSTERS: THE VIDEO GAME 71,899
WII TIGER WOODS PGA TOUR 10 67,523
WII LEGO STAR WARS: COMPLETE SAGA 60,000
WII GRAND SLAM TENNIS 54,379
WII LINK'S CROSSBOW TRAINING W/ ZAPPER 47,619
WII BOOM BLOX BASH PARTY 47,288
WII SUPER SMASH BROS: BRAWL 44,098
WII INDIANA JONES AND THE STAFF OF KINGS 40,042
WII UP 39,194
WII LEGO INDIANA JONES: THE ORIGINAL ADVENTURES 38,528
WII STAR WARS: THE FORCE UNLEASHED 36,627
WII GUITAR HERO: SMASH HITS 35,827
WII LEGO BATMAN 32,817
WII TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN 30,895
WII MARIO PARTY 8 29,341
WII GOLD'S GYM CARDIO WORKOUT 27,595
WII MY SIMS RACING 26,683
WII CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR 26,563
WII ROCK BAND 2 SPECIAL ED 26,158
WII MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K9 26,081
WII NEW PLAY CONTROL! MARIO POWER TENNIS 26,019
WII SUPER MARIO GALAXY 24,114
WII GUITAR HERO WORLD TOUR W/BAND KIT 22,453
WII GUITAR HERO METALLICA 21,581
WII MARIO SUPER SLUGGERS 21,537
WII DECA SPORTS 21,030
WII MY FITNESS COACH 20,342

360 PROTOTYPE 419,863
360 UFC 2009 UNDISPUTED 338,278
360 FIGHT NIGHT ROUND 4 260,817
360 RED FACTION: GUERRILLA 199,380
360 GHOSTBUSTERS: THE VIDEO GAME 192,298
360 TIGER WOODS PGA TOUR 10 133,321
360 CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR 88,589
360 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE GOTY ED 71,175
360 HALO 3 62,546
360 NBA 2K9 61,400
360 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K9 58,916
360 TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN 58,829
360 GUITAR HERO: SMASH HITS 43,139
360 OVERLORD 2 38,772
360 FALLOUT 3 OPERATION ANCHORAGE AND THE PITT EXPANSION PACK 38,559
360 LEFT 4 DEAD GOTY ED 35,141
360 FABLE II 31,796
360 X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE UNCAGED ED 30,878
360 ELDER SCROLLS IV: OBLIVION GOTY ED 29,201
360 GRAND THEFT AUTO IV 29,176
360 BLAZBLUE: CALAMITY TRIGGER 28,905
360 FALLOUT 3 28,404
360 HALO WARS 26,346
360 RESIDENT EVIL 5 25,796
360 FIFA SOCCER 09 25,431
360 STAR WARS: THE FORCE UNLEASHED 24,191
360 CALL OF JUAREZ: BOUND IN BLOOD 23,684
360 SACRED 2: FALLEN ANGEL 22,163
360 GEARS OF WAR 2 21,516
360 LEFT 4 DEAD 21,316
360 PRINCE OF PERSIA 20,756
360 GUITAR HERO METALLICA 20,076

PSP MONSTER HUNTER FREEDOM UNITE 68,768
PSP ROCK BAND UNPLUGGED 37,480
PSP GOD OF WAR: CHAINS OF OLYMPUS 35,144
PSP X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE 28,384
PSP MLB '09: THE SHOW 27,575
PSP UP 26,328
PSP GRAND THEFT AUTO: LIBERTY CITY STORIES 25,370
PSP STAR WARS: THE FORCE UNLEASHED 25,294
PSP TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN 25,150
PSP MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K9 20,956
PSP RESISTANCE: RETRIBUTION 20,901
PSP CRISIS CORE: FINAL FANTASY VII 20,458

152 games in the leak, all over 20k

NDS:42
Wii:34
360:32
PS3:17
PS2:15
PSP:12

Overall
360 > Wii > DS > PS3 > PS2 > PSP

1st Party:
Wii > DS > PS3 > 360 > PSP > PS2

3rd Party:
360 > Wii > PS3 > DS > PS2 > PSP

 

[TrungGap]

360 HALO 3 62,546

This amazed me every time I look at it...

 

[Rangers]

This amazed me every time I look at it...

It's less impressive when you see that COD4 is doing the same thing, though.

360 fans appear to really like shooters. For a project I plan to go through and check the sales ratio of every game on the list that shows up both PS3 and 360. Eyeballing, it appears shooters are more relatively popular on 360.

Halo 3 does look good next to Gears 2 though. One year newer and Gears 2 selling 1/3 as much.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Well, interestingly, Halo Wars is performing about the same as KZ2.

Ouch CoJ and Overlord II couldn't even pull 20k on PS3?

KZ2 is the only old PS3 exclusive with legs?

Lots of X360 older exclusives with some long legs there. Halo Wars, Halo 3, Fable II, Gears 2, L4D twice (Original L4D with 21k and L4D GOTY with 35k).

Dang, Fallout 3 and Oblivion have some legs on X360 also.

Really fascinating. And informative when thinking about companies complaining about viability on PS3 if sales fall off quickly on PS3 while they seem to just keep going and going on X360.

Regards,
SB

 

[Silent_Buddha]

It's less impressive when you see that COD4 is doing the same thing, though.

360 fans appear to really like shooters. For a project I plan to go through and check the sales ratio of every game on the list that shows up both PS3 and 360. Eyeballing, it appears shooters are more relatively popular on 360.

RPGs also apprear to be significantly more popular on X360. You could argue that there's less available on PS3, but both Fallout 3 and Oblivion have already fallen uner 20k.

Likewise RTS is doing better on X360.

Fighers and platformers seem to do relatively better on PS3 though. Blazblue, Wolverine, RE5, FNR 5.

Regards,
SB

 

[TrungGap]

It's less impressive when you see that COD4 is doing the same thing, though.

That's true...both are really impressive...considering they're almost two years old games. That's some legs. Clearly CoD series got the formula down. It's doing pretty well on the PS3, too.

 

[obonicus]

I'm surprised that Red Faction did so poorly on PS3. Were there issues with that version of the game? Too many open-world games released in the same month for the PS3?

On Fallout, there was the retail expansion pack and another DLC released. Have to see if Fallout has any sort of resurgence after September, though odds are that we won't see those sales.

Also, I wouldn't call KZ2 an 'old' exclusive. It's from March. Plus there's been DLC released, another control tweak, so that might account for it. The Show did a little better this month, though no doubt fewer sales overall. Interesting, though, is that The Show outsold MLB2k on the 360 the month it was released (by 100k), but now 2k on 360 is outselling it by 20k. I wonder if it'll manage to outsell The Show.

 

[obonicus]

Aaron Greenberg tweet...



Tommy McClain

Too bad there's no actual numbers. Hate when they play around with percentages.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I'm surprised that Red Faction did so poorly on PS3. Were there issues with that version of the game? Too many open-world games released in the same month for the PS3?

On Fallout, there was the retail expansion pack and another DLC released. Have to see if Fallout has any sort of resurgence after September, though odds are that we won't see those sales.

Also, I wouldn't call KZ2 an 'old' exclusive. It's from March. Plus there's been DLC released, another control tweak, so that might account for it. The Show did a little better this month, though no doubt fewer sales overall. Interesting, though, is that The Show outsold MLB2k on the 360 the month it was released (by 100k), but now 2k on 360 is outselling it by 20k. I wonder if it'll manage to outsell The Show.

What I meant was it's the oldest exclusive, but seems I somehow missed MLB the Show. ooops.

But it's interesting that the oldest exclusive with legs on the console is only 4 months old (as of this NPD).

And other than that the only games with significant legs has been the two COD games.

Giving rise to the question, do PS3 owners just not buy games once the initial hype is gone?

For example, I would have thought Oblivion and Fallout 3 would still be going strong since there's almost a total lack of RPGs on the system.

I don't know, I'm still trying to figure out the PS3 userbase. X360 and Wii, despite different taste in games, are similar in that popular games continue to sell well. PS3 games though appear to drop off a cliff after a couple months for the most part.

Regards,
SB