NPD January 2011

[Silent_Buddha]

NPD Behind the Numbers

Some interesting points.

Accessories continues to be a growth segment which makes sense it has both Kinect and Move and as importantly Digital purchase cards from MS and Sony. It's too bad we don't get a breakdown for the accessories category as this could indicate a growth in digital only sales.

Ouch, the top Move required title was The Fight: Lights Out at 16k for the month. The top Kinect required title was Danced Central at 217k for the month. It makes me wonder if any of the Move required titles will make back their initial investment dollars. And Dance Central might have greater lifetime sales than ALL of the Move Required titles combined, at least in the US with 1.2 million in sales in the US alone.

With both X360 and PS3 software showing growth in revenue, that leaves the Wii with the majority of software revenue drop (ignoring the now irrelevant PS2 and PSP software sales). And puts it in danger of being surpassed by PS3 software revenue (X360 surpassed Wii monthly software revenue months ago). Especially surprising to me was that Holiday 2010 didn't have a significant impact on Wii software sales as it has in the past. Nor did it increase Wii software sales to the extent that it did for X360 and PS3. And the DS is rapidly declining also. It'll be interesting to see how 3DS does in the months following its launch.

Regards,
SB

 

[Squilliam]

Another interesting point is that Accessory revenue is up YOY which is something the Xbox 360 dominates, Xbox 360 console ASP has increased to $305 from $256 6 months prior and console sales as well as software sales are up. The Xbox 360 sure is raking it in at the moment in the United States!

 

[NavNucST3]

Another interesting point is that Accessory revenue is up YOY which is something the Xbox 360 dominates, Xbox 360 console ASP has increased to $305 from $256 6 months prior and console sales as well as software sales are up. The Xbox 360 sure is raking it in at the moment in the United States!

THAT is the most interesting tidbit when you couple it with the console going into its sixth year, to have the ASP increasing. The last price drop was in 2008 and we STILL have both the $299 and $399 launch prices I would imagine the "Apple-model" of maintaining price but adding "value" is at the end of its chain, right? What else could MSFT add that would justify maintaining current price points? [assuming sales begin to fall...sometime...]

Slightly off-topic but MSFT along with Harmonix and Ubisoft truly needs a Kinect + XBOX Live, if not, just an XBOX Live commercial because looking at the top 20 from Major Nelson, to me it suggests that a large majority of Kinect owners are not on Live and that is some serious lost revenue in Dance Central, Your Shape, Kinect Sports DLC.

 

[Squilliam]

THAT is the most interesting tidbit when you couple it with the console going into its sixth year, to have the ASP increasing. The last price drop was in 2008 and we STILL have both the $299 and $399 launch prices I would imagine the "Apple-model" of maintaining price but adding "value" is at the end of its chain, right? What else could MSFT add that would justify maintaining current price points? [assuming sales begin to fall...sometime...]

They could probably continue to add services. That Avatar chat looks interesting and they can roll out more media services to places outside of the U.S because they gained access to them through Nokia when they agreed to support WP7. Most likely the bulk of their efforts for the next year should/will focus on countries outside of the U.S. in order to increase the sales of the Xbox 360 in Europe and Asia especially. Outside of software and network improvements I can't really see their being able to improve the value of the brand as unlike Apple they don't have the ability to physically improve or change the hardware significantly and certainly not yearly.

 

[Rotmm]

......because they gained access to them through Nokia when they agreed to support WP7.

Interesting. Explain more please.

 

[Squilliam]

Interesting. Explain more please.

Nokia has licences to distribute content (media) in a lot more countries than Microsoft does, this means that now Microsoft has access to them they will have an easier time rolling out media services outside the U.S.A. and especially in places like Europe and Asia and the Middle East.

 

[patsu]

Some speculation about price drop...
http://everythinghq.com/2011/02/sony-preparing-hack-proof-ps3-sku/

With all the recent price drops circulating Sony’s PlayStation 3 console and even reports suggesting the company may even introduce an official price drop, you can’t help wonder why Sony are really doing this for. If they really wanted to drop the price of their machine the best opportunity would have been at E3 last year. So, there must be a motive behind the recent price drops from major retailers – Sony are reportedly looking into a hack-proof PS3 SKU.

According to what I have been told by an anonymous source Sony are already deep into plans of developing a hack-proof PS3 system. This is mainly due to the recent leaks of Killzone 3 which has worried Sony of their console becoming a mainstream threat to piracy.

The hack-proof SKU will be a slim PlayStation 3 model and will contain a 300GB hard drive as an incentive to purchase the hack-proof system – the price of the SKU will be £186.99, my source informs me. The scheduled launch is unsure at this time due to Sony seeing if they can win the battle in the courts against the root of all the PS3 hacks – George Hotz.

...

Take it with a pinch of salt.

 

[patsu]

Ouch, the top Move required title was The Fight: Lights Out at 16k for the month. The top Kinect required title was Danced Central at 217k for the month. It makes me wonder if any of the Move required titles will make back their initial investment dollars. And Dance Central might have greater lifetime sales than ALL of the Move Required titles combined, at least in the US with 1.2 million in sales in the US alone.

There are quite a few core games supporting Move though. Even Dead Space: Extraction (a Wii port) has DS3 support. So it is quite meaningless to limit Move sales tracking to only Move exclusive games. ^_^

Judging from their posts, many Gaffers seem to prefer Move controller when playing KZ3 too.

 

[Rotmm]

There are quite a few core games supporting Move though. .

Indeed. The generally weak "Move Exclusive" sales vs the number of Move peripherals shipped does strongly suggest that PS3 Move owners are very definately interested in Move controls being added as an option to games that support a standard control method as a value-add, However there is little incentive for devs to develop titles specifically for Move as it's not what the PS3 core are looking to support.

 

[Rotmm]

Nokia has licences to distribute content (media) in a lot more countries than Microsoft does, this means that now Microsoft has access to them they will have an easier time rolling out media services outside the U.S.A. and especially in places like Europe and Asia and the Middle East.

Cool. I didn't read anything about that being part of any cross-licensing agreement, but that is it can only be a good thing for 360 owners outside of the US.

 

[patsu]

Indeed. The generally weak "Move Exclusive" sales vs the number of Move peripherals shipped does strongly suggest that PS3 Move owners are very definately interested in Move controls being added as an option to games that support a standard control method as a value-add, However there is little incentive for devs to develop titles specifically for Move as it's not what the PS3 core are looking to support.

They take a different approach. We should see more Move exclusive games as the userbase increases. Instead of the big bang approach, they are just using staple PS3 titles and multi-plat Wii games to build up the base -- unless it's a genre that Move offers clear advantage (dancing and exercising). If DS3 works well with a Move game, it'd be money left on the table if they ignore DS3.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

There are quite a few core games supporting Move though. Even Dead Space: Extraction (a Wii port) has DS3 support. So it is quite meaningless to limit Move sales tracking to only Move exclusive games. ^_^

Judging from their posts, many Gaffers seem to prefer Move controller when playing KZ3 too.

Sure, but there's no way to track how many people bought KZ3 ONLY because it has Move support.

Would they have bought it if there was no move support? Pretty much everyone on this forum that has gotten KZ3 also had KZ2, so I find it unlikely anyone here wouldn't have bought the game if Move hadn't launched.

Or to think of it another way.

Kinect actively promotes buying new games. And that's bourne out by people buying games that can only be experienced on Kinect. Which then boosts sales of the controller which then boosts sales of the games, etc.

Move doesn't as Move only title sales are anemic at best.

On the other hand. Games which people will buy with or without Move support encourages people to buy the controller. So for instance, I don't think I'd be far off saying that there's very very few additional KZ3 sales due to Move, but a whole TON of Moves will probably be sold because of KZ3.

Obviously that's just my opinion as there's no way to statistically prove or disprove it.

And the argument could be made that if Move support was only available in Move required games, then Move required software would have sold better. But I don't think that'd be the case. Move would most likely have failed rather misearably if that were the case, IMO.

Anyway, I'm not saying their strategy was wrong. It's probably the best strategy Sony could have used in order to get a lot of Moves into homes. At which point they are hoping that eventually that will result in more software sales.

Regards,
SB

 

[patsu]

Sure, but there's no way to track how many people bought KZ3 ONLY because it has Move support.

That's not Sony's problem though. They should have a good idea who's playing with Move and who's not, especially when you're online. It's outsiders who don't have the info.

Even if Move software sold better, if the game is compatible with DS3, they have a much larger base to sell to for the moment. They can grow the Move userbase organically by merits of the control scheme. For the most part, Move and DS3 core games target the same segment anyway.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

That's not Sony's problem though. They should have a good idea who's playing with Move and who's not, especially when you're online. It's outsiders who don't have the info.

That still doesn't matter as, IMO, chances are almost all of those players would have bought KZ3 if Move had never launched.

All that data would only indicate that KZ3 was successful in getting people to buy Move. Not the other way around, again IMO.

Regards,
SB

 

[patsu]

That still doesn't matter as, IMO, chances are almost all of those players would have bought KZ3 if Move had never launched.

All that data would only indicate that KZ3 was successful in getting people to buy Move. Not the other way around, again IMO.

… but if they buy Move, Sony earns more, and can sell more attachments. On top of that, Move opens up new type software opportunity too. They can do that without a separate, large Move marketing budget. It's just a different go to market strategy.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

… but if they buy Move, Sony earns more, and can sell more attachments. On top of that, Move opens up new type software opportunity too. They can do that without a separate, large Move marketing budget. It's just a different go to market strategy.

Yes, I agree and mentioned that the strategy they are using which is unlikely to move many additional software units at the moment is also the best one available to them. Unless their Move required software is atrocious, the inabilty of any of them to sell in any appreciable numbers is indicative that consumers wouldn't have been very receptive to Move if it hadn't been tacked onto existing games.

Or in other words, the games that PS3 users would have bought regardless of whether Move launched or not are what is getting the controller into homes and thus bringing in significant additional revenue for Sony. But Move has yet to emerge as a software mover.

Sony's strategy hinges on hoping that once enough people have Move, then it'll be able to move software. That upcoming Sorcery game might be a good measuring stick of how well this angle of the strategy works. I believe it's slated to be a Move required title, right?

Regards,
SB

 

[mrcorbo]

… but if they buy Move, Sony earns more, and can sell more attachments. On top of that, Move opens up new type software opportunity too. They can do that without a separate, large Move marketing budget. It's just a different go to market strategy.

The thing is, though, that this is a strategy that when it has been used previously hasn't been very successful. Do you believe that there is a reason that the results will be different this time?

 

[patsu]

Yes, I agree and mentioned that the strategy they are using which is unlikely to move many additional software units at the moment is also the best one available to them. Unless their Move required software is atrocious, the inabilty of any of them to sell in any appreciable numbers is indicative that consumers wouldn't have been very receptive to Move if it hadn't been tacked onto existing games.

The consumers at large have already played Wii. In fact, they love Wii but as I understand, Wii core games could perform better ? That is the hole Sony tries to claim. From Sony's perspective, it may not make sense to go against Wii casual games face to face at this late stage. They sold 65 (?) or so millions of Wiimotes. Sony is only after the Wii upgraders according to their earlier interviews.

Or in other words, the games that PS3 users would have bought regardless of whether Move launched or not are what is getting the controller into homes and thus bringing in significant additional revenue for Sony. But Move has yet to emerge as a software mover.

Sony's strategy hinges on hoping that once enough people have Move, then it'll be able to move software. That upcoming Sorcery game might be a good measuring stick of how well this angle of the strategy works. I believe it's slated to be a Move required title, right?

For Move to be a software mover, the software has to be suitable for the target market first. Move is largely marketed as a precision tool (i.e., more tuned for core gamers). It may take a few years for core gamers to warm up to it because Sony needs to work on 2 things: (i) Perception that Move can perform better than DS3 for certain tasks. This is why you tend to hear comparisons between Move and DS3 too. (ii) Make [strike]a[/strike] great core games.

They can come up with new innovative ideas, but in the mean time, counting only Move exclusive games won't give you the right/complete picture. Once core gamers prefer Move controls, then Sony can differentiate better in core gaming.

EDIT:
Ph*ck, 65 millions sold in US alone. I thought it was worldwide:
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/104679-65-Million-Wii-Remotes-Sold-in-the-United-States

 

[patsu]

The thing is, though, that this is a strategy that when it has been used previously hasn't been very successful. Do you believe that there is a reason that the results will be different this time?

Too early to tell. It depends on many factors at the moment. Traditional gaming itself is also changing. As I mentioned above, I believe it will take a few years to pan out. All I know right now is: Wii is packaged for the casuals. Move is more tailored for core gamers, by observing what Sony said and did. You can use Move for casuals, but the spearhead is pointing at Sony's core fan base.

EDIT: It's also clearer now that Sony will target casuals via Playstation Suite and other avenues.

 

[ShadowRunner]

Its not strictly true that move wont shift software, for instance i had little interest in SOCOM until i was a move convert, now ill most likely be picking it up. I may purchase MAG this weekend, which i hadnt planned to before either. Now im only one person but im sure there are others like me, its just a matter of how much.

Its a similar case, although not so pronounced, with 3D. I have a 3DTV and any games that have 3D support 3D seem to be getting an extra look in. I may not buy just because of 3d support but it certainly grabs my attention a little more.

There are also incentives for owners of multiple consoles, if the next big FPS was to support move id pick it up on PS3 instead of 360 for sure.

EDIT:
I think its too early to say move exlusive software wont sell. I think we have to wait until some really great games that are apealing come first, and whatch them fail, before we can come to that conclusion. I havent purchased any myself simply because none of it really apeals to me yet, doesnt mean i wont be a big move software purchaser later if the right content is there for me.