NPD December 2017

[Goodtwin]

It's only growing if that hardware is selling to new gamers and not existing gamers upgrading. Is Switch selling to 3DS owners? Is PS4 selling to PS3 owners? Well, it depends how you measure growth. Financially, more dollars spent, it's likely growing, but I think that generally true every year.

The market goes through cycles, rising and falling because we have young new gamers entering the market and older gamers losing interest in games and falling out of the market.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/276768/global-unit-sales-of-video-game-consoles/

Assuming the chart is accurate, we were seeing a steady decline year over year for console sales going back to 2008. PS4 sales for 2017 nearly match all console sales combined in 2016. Even in 2013 with the release of the PS4 and X1, there was still a reduction in year over year sales, and then 2014 saw another reduction in sales. 2017 is like the first time in many years we will have seen an increase in year over year sales, and could very well be the best year for console sales of the current generation. I think that is a good sign.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Total market size is the aggregate of all the previous years. If in 2018, only 1 console is sold, the market has still grown from 2017 in terms of userbase. On top of that you have money spent, which typically has increased YoY (more console owners than the previous year), and active users which we don't know.

 

[Goodtwin]

Total market size is the aggregate of all the previous years. If in 2018, only 1 console is sold, the market has still grown from 2017 in terms of userbase. On top of that you have money spent, which typically has increased YoY (more console owners than the previous year), and active users which we don't know.

If hardware sales were to fall off the cliff year over year, I doubt anyone would argue in favor of growth. Because you always have people exiting the market so you must have adequate number of brand new users in order to offset those who have vacated. Gamestop is reporting solid year over year increases in sales, primarily thanks to Switch and to a lesser extent Xbox One X. The bottom line is that we were seeing a yearly decline in hardware sales this generation, something that we were not seeing from 2006-2011, and for the first time this generation we saw a year over year increase, and it wasn't an insignificant increase. Hardware and software sales are up so I am having a hard time seeing how this isn't growth on all accounts, and is favorable compared to the previous two or three years.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

You specified 'market'. The market, as I understand it, is the number of consumers in that market, measured by install base. Or the other most common measure of growth is revenue. More units selling YoY actually doesn't tell us if the market is growing because, as you say, users could drop out. So for all we know, YoY sales are up but also maybe 30 million console owners gave up gaming in 2017 and took up table tennis?

The yearly decline in hardware sales didn't represent a shrinking of the market, but a decrease in the rate of growth. The market was still largely growing year after year. If a tree grows 100 cm in its first year, 90 in its second, and 80 in its third, is it not still growing despite getting taller by less each year?

 

[djskribbles]

Very much more than that. Ratio is ~ 10:9:7 SW : XB : PS. If we consider 1 million units sold for SW, that'd be 900k for XB and 700k PS4. The higher Switch's numbers, the greater the differential between XB and PS. It 'll be several hundred thousand more XBs sold.

Probably 200 to 400 k...

My guess is:
NSW: ~1.5M
XB1: ~1.37M (XB1X ~250K)
PS4: ~1.08M (PS4 Pro ~220K)

I still find it strange that Sony's December promos were so lackluster. Even if they kept the 249/349 prices all month I think that would have pushed the PS4 to be on par with XB1. I would think that Sony would still profit from those prices.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

You specified 'market'. The market, as I understand it, is the number of consumers in that market, measured by install base. Or the other most common measure of growth is revenue. More units selling YoY actually doesn't tell us if the market is growing because, as you say, users could drop out. So for all we know, YoY sales are up but also maybe 30 million console owners gave up gaming in 2017 and took up table tennis?

Measuring the market size is bit of an arcane science*. Absolute revenue will drop when console prices fall even if more consoles are sold because.. absolute numbers. Units sold will generally increase when prices drop but this often an increase in budget-conscious buyers who may spend less. By 'market', most of the industry is referring to the freely spending kind. Things like attach rates can be helpful but these are figures that are more commonly released early in a console generation and not later when it would be a more helpful.
*actual science** not included.

 

[DrJay24]

My guess is:
NSW: ~1.5M
XB1: ~1.37M (XB1X ~250K)
PS4: ~1.08M (PS4 Pro ~220K)

I still find it strange that Sony's December promos were so lackluster. Even if they kept the 249/349 prices all month I think that would have pushed the PS4 to be on par with XB1. I would think that Sony would still profit from those prices.

They could have been low on stock while MS was much more aggressive at feeding the channels and had the motivation to clear some of the shelves.

 

[Rangers]

I think the biggest bump for Xbox in december is the Xbox One S at 189 dollars it was out of one week 110 dollars cheaper than a PS4 and 60 dollars cheaper for one week... Now price sensitive people begin to buy consoles...

I didn't pay super close attention, but the PS4 1TB Battlefront bundle was 249 on Amazon (and thus I presume everywhere) all December IIRC. It seems like revisionist history now a lot are claiming PS4 was 299 except for one week. The Xbox Hot Wheels 500GB bundle was 199.

$50 difference is nothing to sneeze at of course, although 1TB vs 500GB HDD isn't analogous.

Anyways it's probably just that GDDR5 is expensive to manufacture vs DDR4 in Xbox One, so Sony has troubles getting the price lower.

I see currently, just with some minor checking, PS4 is honestly 299 most places again (249 at Wal Mart though). Crazy I didn't know they sold consoles that high anymore. Xbox seemed ~279 typically, which is also quite high. I thought these consoles were available for sale 249 and less pretty much always for a long time now.

Newegg has Xbox for 189 but that seems an outlier sale.

 

[Globalisateur]

I didn't pay super close attention, but the PS4 1TB Battlefront bundle was 249 on Amazon (and thus I presume everywhere) all December IIRC. It seems like revisionist history now a lot are claiming PS4 was 299 except for one week. The Xbox Hot Wheels 500GB bundle was 199.

$50 difference is nothing to sneeze at of course, although 1TB vs 500GB HDD isn't analogous.

Anyways it's probably just that GDDR5 is expensive to manufacture vs DDR4 in Xbox One, so Sony has troubles getting the price lower.

I see currently, just with some minor checking, PS4 is honestly 299 most places again (249 at Wal Mart though). Crazy I didn't know they sold consoles that high anymore. Xbox seemed ~279 typically, which is also quite high. I thought these consoles were available for sale 249 and less pretty much always for a long time now.

Newegg has Xbox for 189 but that seems an outlier sale.

No, it wasn't and no. From my fuzzy memory It was $249 earlier (than others places) on amazon but only 7 or 10 days $249 everywhere else.

 

[iroboto]

DDR4 in Xbox One

DDR3 unless I missed something right? If so please point! I also don't see how DDR3 could be cheaper than DDR4. But DDR4 is likely cheaper than GDDR5 right now

 

[Rangers]

Shouldn't the market being considered there be consoles+handhelds? I doubt Switch is growing the market beyond previous gens - I don't see that it's converting new people into gamers.

It's bringing back that broad Nintendo family appeal to some extent though.

Supposedly 3DS sold 700k or something, and someone at Era was marveling at that It doesn't surprise me at all, 3DS fits a niche nothing else does. Kids say, 4-12, you cant really buy them a smartphone. Switch may be a little advanced/expensive for them. You can give them a 3DS, and it's 149 or whatever. Probably smartphones are even encroaching on that market though.

 

[function]

DDR3 unless I missed something right? If so please point! I also don't see how DDR3 could be cheaper than DDR4. But DDR4 is likely cheaper than GDDR5 right now

DDR3 it is.

DDR3 2133 is currently cheaper than DDR4 2133 still - at least on long trend retail prices - and DDR4 is significantly cheaper than GDDR5, last I saw (several tens of percent per GB).

That DDR3 might a brick wall when render targets spill out of super-fast-esram .... but at least it's cheap(ish).

 

[DrJay24]

No, it wasn't and no. From my fuzzy memory It was $249 earlier (than others places) on amazon but only 7 or 10 days $249 everywhere else.

Correct, mostly. Camelcamelcamel tracks prices, it was mostly around $280 on Amazon, which is my memory. I think there were some sporadic deal here and there for $249 towards the end of the month.

I don't see any $249 deals in Dec from Amazon for a PS4.

 

[manux]

My guess is:
NSW: ~1.5M
XB1: ~1.37M (XB1X ~250K)
PS4: ~1.08M (PS4 Pro ~220K)

I still find it strange that Sony's December promos were so lackluster. Even if they kept the 249/349 prices all month I think that would have pushed the PS4 to be on par with XB1. I would think that Sony would still profit from those prices.

Sony might be playing a game where sales are done throughout the year. Consumers will not wait for magical price cut if it's not there consistently.

Another reason could be supply. Maybe Sony sold what they had and discount would not have had that much of an effect.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Or it could just be that Sony are now wanting to maximize profit. Similar to how Microsoft in the X360 generation would very rarely respond to Sony price cuts (temporary or otherwise).

Both companies now have a healthy share of the console market. There is little incentive for Sony to cut into profits just to sell a few more consoles in a single month. Microsoft still has some incentive. While they have a healthy share of the market, shareholders might wonder why they aren't working harder to decrease the marketshare gap to Sony if they were to stop aggressively trying to gain more sales.

Also, Switch wins as expected. Microsoft came a lot closer to them than I expected, however. I wonder if Minecraft sold well in Dec.? If so, it could be the Minecraft effect combined with a low price making it attractive as a gift for children (IE - Minecraft + XBO-S being cheaper than Minecraft + Switch).

Regards,
SB

 

[dobwal]

The market goes through cycles, rising and falling because we have young new gamers entering the market and older gamers losing interest in games and falling out of the market.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/276768/global-unit-sales-of-video-game-consoles/

Assuming the chart is accurate, we were seeing a steady decline year over year for console sales going back to 2008. PS4 sales for 2017 nearly match all console sales combined in 2016. Even in 2013 with the release of the PS4 and X1, there was still a reduction in year over year sales, and then 2014 saw another reduction in sales. 2017 is like the first time in many years we will have seen an increase in year over year sales, and could very well be the best year for console sales of the current generation. I think that is a good sign.

Accurate?

The PS4 went from 17-18 million in sales in 2015 to just 12-13 million in 2016? How did we all miss that?

 

[zed]

I assume thats not the full year, eg perhaps just the first 9 months

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Sony sold 10 million PlayStation 4 consoles between early May 2016 and December 6, 2016.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/playstation-4-sales-2016-12

 

[djskribbles]

Accurate?

The PS4 went from 17-18 million in sales in 2015 to just 12-13 million in 2016? How did we all miss that?

It's not accurate.

https://twitter.com/x/status/950526210697777152

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Must have been a bogus figure going around then, because that Business Insider article says 10 million between May and 6th december. Another 7 between the first four months at the beginning of the year and the last month seems implausible!