NPD August 2009

[ShadowRunner]

And yet, Halo3 is outselling Killzone 2 in the US practically every month.
Now I doubt that anyone owning a 360 hasn't bought Halo3 yet, so it's probably tens of thousands of new people flowing in constantly...

Yes, a lot of new 360 owners will be buying halo 3. The question is whether halo 3 was the reason they bought the console and whether a new halo 3 "expansion" will increase the appeal of the xbox to those that halo 3 wasnt already enough to sway.

I am not saying that ODST will not sell in large quantities to new and current xbox users. Im debating whether or not it will greatly expand the appeal of the box.

FFXIII on xbox wont sell as much as ODST/COD6 but it will still do more to expand the appeal of the box to a wider audience, it will provide something that is otherwise lacking to some degree (assuming it is good ).

 

[Laa-Yosh]

The question is whether halo 3 was the reason they bought the console and whether a new halo 3 "expansion" will increase the appeal of the xbox to those that halo 3 wasnt already enough to sway.

I am not saying that ODST will not sell in large quantities to new and current xbox users. Im debating whether or not it will greatly expand the appeal of the box.

ODST's tone is very different from Halo3. It's noticeably darker and more serious with some small gameplay differences (more sneaking) so it may win over some of the customers who think Halo is too cartoonish.

You're right that it's probably not such a big crowd... but there may be a few more tens of thousands left sitting on the fence whom the X360 could reach, thanks to this game. Enough to give a little boost for september's sales.

 

[djskribbles]

I'm not sure I understand this post. Are you saying Forza 3 will be head and shoulders above GT5?

Or that it could be a better game than GT5 and potentially not sell as much?

I think the latter...

 

[Rangers]

You know it's interesting, a lot of the recent XBLA games have been reported to be over 200,000, even 300,000, and seem to be smashing XBLA sales records all the time. Shadow Complex, Trials HD etc.

At those levels, granted $15 games, they would easily be placing in NPD top ten. It's just interesting, download games seem to be growing more and more. And dont forget DS games run $29, and still get counted in NPD, so $15 games wouldn't be that much of a stretch.

On a totally other subject, next months NPD will be totally fascinating to me, the first month I honestly wont have a clue whether Wii, PS3, or 360 will finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (consoles).

 

[Acert93]

I think one of the "mistakes" of the industry is standard new release pricing. A new game $10-$15 is judged different than a $60 title. e.g. I would never, every buy Trials HD at $60 and would be forgotten by the time it was $15 and yet it was more enjoyable than most $60 releases. As a product it just cannot offer the value and expectations of a $60 standalone, but at $15 it offers great value.

If more companies took their 6-8hr SP games and marketed them as $30 products aimed at huge volumes and targetted as 'fling' gaming I think we could see a lot better sales. Of course this creates a quagmire of "value" propositions in regards to $60 titles and errodes the "premium" price point. I think they would rather maintain that barrier and control supply/demand tightly and take losses on most titles and recoup on the big sellers. Of course the slippery sloap is going this route and cutting out resell / used markets, but then again Publishers would be certain to creap prices back up. They kind of are their worse enemies and the timing of the $10/title price hike while subtle I don't think helps. It really puts more weight on pubs releasing some killer apps to float the entire company. This, as much as the Wii segmentation in a different direction, I think has created a situation that will be interesting to see play out over the next couple years and shape the new consoles down the road.

 

[liolio]

I'm not sure I understand this post. Are you saying Forza 3 will be head and shoulders above GT5?

Or that it could be a better game than GT5 and potentially not sell as much?

The latter

 

[Squilliam]

If more companies took their 6-8hr SP games and marketed them as $30 products aimed at huge volumes and targetted as 'fling' gaming I think we could see a lot better sales.

The problem with offering games at a lower price is that it creates a perception issue. People use price as a signaling mechanism so its quite likely that they will percieve $60 = good game, $30 = bad game unless theres some other mechanism to inform them that the game is still of good quality which is a catch 22. There are the platinum titles which have an obvious root in being the top sellers, but in what way can you convince people of the quality of $30 new release titles without instituting some sort of Nintendo seal of quality program?

 

[dobwal]

Yes, a lot of new 360 owners will be buying halo 3. The question is whether halo 3 was the reason they bought the console and whether a new halo 3 "expansion" will increase the appeal of the xbox to those that halo 3 wasnt already enough to sway.

I am not saying that ODST will not sell in large quantities to new and current xbox users. Im debating whether or not it will greatly expand the appeal of the box.

FFXIII on xbox wont sell as much as ODST/COD6 but it will still do more to expand the appeal of the box to a wider audience, it will provide something that is otherwise lacking to some degree (assuming it is good ).

I am of the opinion that ODST will attract new gamers and a wider audience. Doing so only because, when it comes to the Halo franchise, MS seems to be one of the few pub willing to advertise more to the general public.

 

[ShadowRunner]

I am of the opinion that ODST will attract new gamers and a wider audience. Doing so only because, when it comes to the Halo franchise, MS seems to be one of the few pub willing to advertise more to the general public.

Yep was just thinking about that actually. The increase in marketing will definately have an effect.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Nope, 360 is still showing growth YoY. Note that this was the last month before the 360's price cut last year, which is what started its current YoY trend.

        Aug08   Aug09   Change
NDS     518.3   552.9    +6.7%
Wii     453.0   277.4   -48.8%
PS3     185.4   210.0   +13.2%
X360    195.2   215.4   +10.3%
PSP     253.0   140.3   -44.5%
PS2     144.1   105.9   -26.5%

All reports I've read (and from my spotty memory) were that the price cuts hit Middle of August with some shops jumping the gun even earlier than that.

So I'm a bit surprised that X360 still saw a YoY gain.

And dang, I was expecting a bit higher YoY gain for PS3, since reports were that PS3 saw a 100%+ increase in sales with the introduction of the slim. Sept. should show the full impact though and I expect those numbers to be quite a bit better for PS3.

Regards,
SB

 

[Silent_Buddha]

The problem with offering games at a lower price is that it creates a perception issue. People use price as a signaling mechanism so its quite likely that they will percieve $60 = good game, $30 = bad game unless theres some other mechanism to inform them that the game is still of good quality which is a catch 22. There are the platinum titles which have an obvious root in being the top sellers, but in what way can you convince people of the quality of $30 new release titles without instituting some sort of Nintendo seal of quality program?

Additionally the length of the single player campaign in a game isn't necessarily reflective of the time (cost) and effort (cost) of producing the game. Whether it be art assets, engine creation or modification, etc.

It's quite possible that some of those 60 USD 6-8 hour games actually cost 4-10 times more to produce than the 15 USD Trials HD or Shadow Complex. Which then makes it difficult to hit the lower price points and still have a reasonable chance to recoup costs.

Released digitally (no physical media or packaging) might allow them to shave off 15-20+ USD though, so that would be an interesting proposition (and something I personally think Next Gen consoles are seriously looking at - primary distribution being digital only).

Regards,
SB

 

[DrJay24]

All reports I've read (and from my spotty memory) were that the price cuts hit Middle of August with some shops jumping the gun even earlier than that.

So I'm a bit surprised that X360 still saw a YoY gain.

And dang, I was expecting a bit higher YoY gain for PS3, since reports were that PS3 saw a 100%+ increase in sales with the introduction of the slim. Sept. should show the full impact though and I expect those numbers to be quite a bit better for PS3.

Regards,
SB

3/4 of August was low supply for the 80GB and no price cut with rumors of one coming, those are a perfect storm for low sales.

The 360 price cut was official the first week of Sept 2008, so if there were rumors of one then it would stifle sales in much of the same way which would actually help the YoY for Aug 2009.

What you see next month is the 360 YoY going big negative and the PS3 going big positive.

 

[Asher]

3/4 of August was low supply for the 80GB and no price cut with rumors of one coming, those are a perfect storm for low sales.

The 360 price cut was official the first week of Sept 2008, so if there were rumors of one then it would stifle sales in much of the same way which would actually help the YoY for Aug 2009.

What you see next month is the 360 YoY going big negative and the PS3 going big positive.

You think the 360 is going to go YoY "big" negative even though it got another price cut (just like last year), and has a Halo game coming out?

 

[DrJay24]

You think the 360 is going to go YoY "big" negative even though it got another price cut (just like last year), and has a Halo game coming out?

Yes. A fake price cut and a Halo expansion will not do as well as the first month with a real price cut including the "magic" $199 price point.

 

[liolio]

Yes. A fake price cut and a Halo expansion will not do as well as the first month with a real price cut including the "magic" $199 price point.

In US it's not a fake price cut If you consider Japan and Europe your claim might be right imho.
In US it's a different matter.

 

[Scott_Arm]

For USA one of the questions for predicting September onward is how many units until the Pro has run out. The price cut on the Pro could be a big boost to sales if there are enough of them out there. If not, then it is more of a head to head between the Elite and the Slim.

 

[DrJay24]

The 60GB is #102 at Amazon and in stock, the demand is low because the Elite is the better deal, or at least people think it is.

The 360 "price drop" is not real, it is value added (60GB+Black). They had a $199/$299 price point before the drop and the have a $199/$299 price point now. Last year the HD-less entry price dropped from $279 to $199 and the base HD model went from $349 to $299, those were real drops.

 

[Asher]

The 60GB is #102 at Amazon and in stock, the demand is low because the Elite is the better deal, or at least people think it is.

The 360 "price drop" is not real, it is value added (60GB+Black). They had a $199/$299 price point before the drop and the have a $199/$299 price point now. Last year the HD-less entry price dropped from $279 to $199 and the base HD model went from $349 to $299, those were real drops.

As real as you think it's not, sales have gone up substantially since the 'fake price drop'. To go "big negative", that'd take quite an achievement on the wake of already positive year over year sales historically further increasing due to the "fake" price cut.

 

[dobwal]

You think the 360 is going to go YoY "big" negative even though it got another price cut (just like last year), and has a Halo game coming out?

I agree with DrJay24. Last year the 360 sold near or at 350K last September. Even with ODST, I don't expect the move much beyond the low 200Ks, which is the typical volume for the 360 the past three months.

If DrJay24 is referring to a huge negative in comparing all of 2009 versus 2008. I doubt that will happen. The 360 would have do 50K in Sept to give up the gains it has made over the last 8 months versus first 9 months of 2008.

 

[liolio]

For USA one of the questions for predicting September onward is how many units until the Pro has run out. The price cut on the Pro could be a big boost to sales if there are enough of them out there. If not, then it is more of a head to head between the Elite and the Slim.

Overall I feel like there is some truth to DrJay24 claims if it's not just now, Sony is likely to gain a lot of steam in the coming months. They have an outstanding line up in Japan for this fall. GT5 will be a test for Sony, they have a correct pricing in regard to their offer (more functionality+free online), it'sx a good point for Sony to start regaining mindshare.
I thank more about one of my earlier post and I feel it' would be the right move. Ms doesn't seem to want to subsidize right now (or do it more), I'm sure the RroD has slowed their cost reduction effort a lot. Ms has to stand still for a while and suffer. They will need to restaure a significant price gap. They need to have this advantage for Natal launch. Ms should suffer not growing sales, being outsold in Europe and Japan, do some damage control in US and spend a bunch of money on cost reduction during the next quarters. To not sink the division result they can't afford to fight too much on the price now. A 7 millions gap won't be fill that quickly and even if it is by the time Ms is position to make a really aggressive move, parity in installed base won't have any effect on editors choices.
Ms has too somewhat suffer till early H2 2010.
Their eyes and efforts should be focused on getting the three chips making the 360 into one single package (ie xenon @45nm xenos @40nm edram @65nm and if they could pay ATI to rework the memory controller so they can use GDDR5 along with a 64bits bus it would even better).
They have to do this anyway if they want the system to last and be able to lower the price. I feel like it's the right moment to "swallow the bullet".