Notes from the NVIDIA conference call Q&A session

[duffer]

Here are my notes from the NVIDIA conference call Q&A session:

I reordered the notes slightly to put most of the Xbox-related stuff in a seperate section from the PC related stuff.

PC-related Q & A

Jensen actually never stated whether or not the NV30 had taped out, even when asked specifically. The clear implication is that it didn't tape out yet.

They do not expect to ever get significant revenue from the NV30. It's a product for the enthusiast market, and there aren't enough enthusiasts.
[or maybe we'll all buy the 9700 instead? ]

1400 employees at end of quarter

NV28 - will be our new fall part. (No other details given.)

We have a hole at the high end of the line. We are waiting for NV30 to fill it.

Hobbiests not buying high-end GeForce4 Ti 4600 parts. Ti 4200 sells great. This shows that the "Performance" market much better than "Enthusiast" market.

3 new games drive GPU sales next year: Doom3 ut 2003, Half life 2

Q: Ati says doom3 might ship q4. What do you think? [Implication: If DOOM 3 ships in Q4 everyone will buy ATI 9700s instead of NV30.]

A: I don't think it will ship in Q4. However, I hope it ships soon since it will drive sales of all kinds of GPUs across the industry. It's going to be as big as Quake 2 and a few other FPS games were four years ago.

When will the NFORCE2 ramp: ship q3.

We will announce NForce 2 and NForce 1 design wins next quarter.

Q What's your AMD Hammer support?

A: we'll announce our support for it when it ships, around the end of the year.

Xbox related Q&A

Moved to the Console Talk board.
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=32423#32423

 

[Dave Baumann]

3 new games drive gpu sales next year: Doom3 ut 2003, Half life 2

They're out of touch - what about Deus Ex 2? (unless thats 2004)

Q: Ati says doom3 might ship q4. What do you think? [Implication: If DOOM 3 ships in Q4 everyone will buy ATI 9700s instead of NV30.]

Well, makes sence for Id to hit XMas. I'm sure all the hardware vendors would absolutly love it to come now! But I bet ATi will be eging JC along as much as possible!

 

[Doomtrooper]

What about Duke Nukem...Grrrr

 

[alexsok]

But I bet ATi will be eging JC along as much as possible!

I bet on that too!

ATI have been bugging Carmack a LONG time now!

I remember he stated himself that they bugged him to give 8500 another chance, which he did!

 

[alexsok]

What about Duke Nukem...Grrrr

You must be kidding!

 

[Reverend]

Okay, I'm out of touch - where's the press release regarding Half Life 2 actually debuting this or next year? Again, out of touch, what engine is HL2 using?

 

[Joe DeFuria]

I think it's wishful thinking (for all IHVs) that Doom3 would be out this year. I'm guessing x-mas 2003.

However, Doom3 itself isn't really needed to drive sales. A Doom3 "test" would have very much the same effect.

Until then, UT 2003 will likely be the next "standard" high-end gaming benchmark until then. That, and the next 3D Mark, which I'm guessing should debut about the same time NV30 ships.

 

[Sabastian]

Jensen actually never stated whether or not the NV30 had taped out, even when asked specifically. The clear implication is that it didn't tape out yet.

Exactly then what was all the rubbish coming from Anand? Obviously the nv30 isn't taped out.

They do not expect to ever get significant revenue from the nv30. It's a product for the enthusiast market, and there aren't enough enthusiasts.
[or maybe we'll all buy the 9700 instead? ]

They don't anticipate any major revenue from it in the next quarter because it won't be obtainable in any sort of volume for 6 months. Further the yields on the nv30 are low thus costing even more for nvidia to produce. There always used to be enough enthusiast to contribute to nvidias bottom line .... why not now?

NV28 will be our new fall part. (No other details given.)

LOL, I thought the nv30 was to be their fall part.

We have a hole at the high end of the line. We are waiting for NV30 to fill it.

Can anyone say Radeon 9700?

Hobbiests not buying high-end GeForce4 Ti 4600 parts. Ti 4200 sells great. This shows that the "Performance" market much better than "Enthusiast" market.

They aren’t buying the geforce 4 ti 4600 because the geforce 4 ti 4200 performs nearly as well. The geforce 4200 was put in place in an attempt to keep "hobbiests" from buying the Radeon 8500. Nvidia decided it was better to lose some margins rather then actual market share here. As far as I am concerned the geforce 4 ti4200 is "enthusiast" why in hell would you pay so much more for the geforce 4 ti 4600 if the 4200 series is nearly as good not to mention the nice standing that the Radeon 8500 has. Now the Radeon 9700 is significantly more potent then the geforce 4 ti series of cards, it may be that this whole line of product offering suffers massively. Then to fan the flames(no pun intended.) throw a cheaper Radeon 9500 on the fire... Nvidia stands to lose a lot here.

Q: Ati says doom3 might ship q4. What do you think? [Implication: If DOOM 3 ships in Q4 everyone will buy ATI 9700s instead of NV30.]

Exactly.

Sabastian

 

[Joe DeFuria]

NV28 - will be our new fall part. (No other details given.)

I hope this teaches a few folks a lesson about "what the CEO says." A couple calls ago (or was it the last one?) nVidia was still "insisting" that NV30 was "their fall part."

Everyone must keep in mind that at these meetings, the company reps will basically do the following when talking about the future: they will state what they believe to be a realstic, if not most optimisitc, case, and state it as fact. People need to realize that when talking about the future, there is no FACT, it's all "guessing."

If they are wrong, they are not "lying,"...they are making "forward looking statements" about which you hear all those disclaimers.

So when the CEO says it will be the fall product, or the X-Mas product, it's not fact, nor should it be treated as such, it's a guess. (Albeit, one would think the most educated guess based on the info at his disposal.) And the further off in the future the prediction is made, the more chance there is of it being wrong.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Now the Radeon 9700 is significantly more potent then the geforce 4 ti series of cards, it may be that this whole line of product offering suffers massively. Then to fan the flames(no pun intended.) throw a cheaper Radeon 9500 on the fire... Nvidia stands to lose a lot here.

This will be a very interesting battle to watch.

ATI has a "hole" in their line up. They have super high-end and value covered very nicely with the 9000 and 9700.

But nVidia still stands to do well (volume wise, not so sure about profit wise) with the GeForce4 ti. The $150-$225 price market is usually where the majority of the "mainstream gamer" purchases are made, and that's where the Ti 4x00 series (and/or NV28?) will sit, and where ATI has a hole.

In steps the 9500.

So it would be in ATI's best interest to get the 9500 out very soon.

Similar to the situation that nVidia had when it launched the GeForce4 cards. They had the GF4 MX at the low end, and Ti 4400/4600 at the high end, but nothing in the middle. It wasn't until a few months later that they shipped the 4200. The 8500 was occupying that $150-$225 price point, and the product that nVidia WANTED to sell there (the MX 460) was not competitive.

 

[Sabastian]

Now the Radeon 9700 is significantly more potent then the geforce 4 ti series of cards, it may be that this whole line of product offering suffers massively. Then to fan the flames(no pun intended.) throw a cheaper Radeon 9500 on the fire... Nvidia stands to lose a lot here.

This will be a very interesting battle to watch.

ATI has a "hole" in their line up. They have super high-end and value covered very nicely with the 9000 and 9700.

But nVidia still stands to do well (volume wise, not so sure about profit wise) with the GeForce4 ti. The $150-$225 price market is usually where the majority of the "mainstream gamer" purchases are made, and that's where the Ti 4x00 series (and/or NV28?) will sit, and where ATI has a hole.

In steps the 9500.

So it would be in ATI's best interest to get the 9500 out very soon.

Similar to the situation that nVidia had when it launched the GeForce4 cards. They had the GF4 MX at the low end, and Ti 4400/4600 at the high end, but nothing in the middle. It wasn't until a few months later that they shipped the 4200. The 8500 was occupying that $150-$225 price point, and the product that nVidia WANTED to sell there (the MX 460) was not competitive.

I may be wrong here but the TI series cards from nvidia don't make good "mainstream" parts simply because of the cost to produce them. Card makers have to use expensive cooling on them and the chips themselves are far more expensive then the 30million transistor chips. Nvidia will try to wring as much margin out of their offerings as possible for as long as possible. But... if they start losing substantial market share the price may drop significantly.. that would be an interesting development. Surely the only way ATI could combat it would be to produce the Radeon 9500 having a wide lead in performance with this part would stifle ti series card sales. But the problem would remain that the third party companies would be stuck with an expensive card to produce (as a result of the extensive cooling the geforce 4 ti series cards require.) with low margins. At any rate I do agree, this will be a nasty street fight to watch.

Sabastian

 

[Joe DeFuria]

I may be wrong here but the TI series cards from nvidia don't make good "mainstream" parts simply because of the cost to produce them.

I agree. That's why I said that they would do well "volume" wise, but not necessarily profit wise.

 

[SteveG]

Here is a more complete transcript of the NV30 tapeout question:

Q: Has the NV30 taped out yet, and if so, when did it?

Jen-Hsun: I think the most important thing for you to focus on is when is NV30 going to be on the market, and we are very confident that it will be in time for the Christmas season...[lots of irrelevant marketing speak here]... we fully expect it to be here for the Christmas season... [more irrelevant marketing speak]...

And addressing a separate question about the progress of the .13u process: "we have built a couple of test chips [on the 0.13u process] and we are delighted with the functionality of the process..."

Next Q: Is this a product that we should look for volume in the January quarter, or might it be..introduced in the January quarter and ramping perhaps in the April quarter... (was this guy not listening???)

Jen-Hsun: [incredulously] "...First of all, it's a Christmas product, so you will have some revenue contribution in Q4..."

Let me paraphrase Jen-Hsun's original answer: "I'm not going to tell you whether it has taped out or not, because you simply don't need to know and wouldn't know what to do with that information anyway. The only thing you guys need to know, as market analysts, is that the product will be ready for Christmas."

A fair response, in my opinion. Talking about tapeouts could easily confuse the issue (frankly, those analysts didn't sound like the brightest bunch of guys, and the definition of "tapeout" has confused quite a few hardware enthusiasts on this board). They don't need to know any details of Nvidia's internal product development timeline. All they need to know is the bottom line - when will the product hit the streets.

And re: Doom3 hitting the market this Christmas - are you people smoking crack? The game is not even *remotely* close to being finished. The chances are *zero* that it will be out this Christmas. Even back at E3 in May, id had huge banners announcing "Coming in 2003". I'm putting my money on Fall 2003. Jeesh, how do ridiculous rumors like this get started?

[Edited to clarify the Nvidia quotes]

 

[Johnny Rotten]

3 new games drive gpu sales next year: Doom3 ut 2003, Half life 2

They're out of touch - what about Deus Ex 2? (unless thats 2004)

Small beans. Deus Ex, while a critical success, had lukewarm sales.

Okay, I'm out of touch - where's the press release regarding Half Life 2 actually debuting this or next year? Again, out of touch, what engine is HL2 using?

There hasnt been yet. HL2 is probably the most tightly guarded secret in the industry right now. Valve makes 3DRealms look like a chatty schoolgirl. That said, there have been some interesting hints and clues that its only(?) about 9 months away. Oh and they are developing their own engine for this one (and TF2 presumably). They have some considerable software engineering talent.

I think it's wishful thinking (for all IHVs) that Doom3 would be out this year. I'm guessing x-mas 2003.

It is indeed wishful thinking for the full game. A technology test for xmas, however has much better odds. The full game isnt as far off as you think Joe. Late 1st quarter 2003. Which body part do you want to bet?

 

[Joe DeFuria]

The full game isnt as far off as you think Joe. Late 1st quarter 2003. Which body part do you want to bet?

LOL...betting body parts is Teasy's department....Speaking of which, Spet 30 is looming on the horizon.

That being said, I would be surprised to see Doom3 as early as Q1 2003. A welcome surprise to be sure though!

 

[alexsok]

That being said, I would be surprised to see Doom3 as early as Q1 2003. A welcome surprise to be sure though!

You won't see it that early, that's for sure...

Fall 2003 is my bet.

 

[Typedef Enum]

SteveG,

I'm down with pretty much everything you just said...

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Let me paraphrase Jen-Hsun's original answer: "I'm not going to tell you whether it has taped out or not, because you simply don't need to know and wouldn't know what to do with that information anyway. The only thing you guys need to know, as market analysts, is that the product will be ready for Christmas."

Well, perhaps the "analyst" is not interested in PR bullsh*t "predictions", but real FACTS so that the analyst can make his own predictions.

A couple calls ago, Jen-Hsun also said that the NV30 would be "launched" in August and be the "fall" product.

So perhaps instead of being fed another "this is what we believe will happen" line, the analyst DOES want to know when / if the chip actually taped out, so that the analyst can guess for HIMSELF when the product might be ready to ship...

EDIT (addition): Any time someone refuses to directly answer a question, and instead spins it to something else, alarm bells should go off. It would be different if Jen-Hsun answered the question about the tape out and THEN explained "what's important." But that's not what happened....

 

[SteveG]

NV28 - will be our new fall part. (No other details given.)

I hope this teaches a few folks a lesson about "what the CEO says." A couple calls ago (or was it the last one?) nVidia was still "insisting" that NV30 was "their fall part."

Um, Nvidia is still saying that NV30 is a "fall part". On yesterday's call, Jen-Hsun said no fewer than *four times* that NV30 will be ready for the Christmas season. Fall ends on December 21st. Unless Nvidia takes the "Christmas season" to mean the three days before Christmas, then you can expect NV30 this fall.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

SteveG,

Sure, nVidia can change their definition of "fall part" any time they like. Traditionally (as in, every year that I can remember), nVidia's "fall line-up" is launched in Aug/Sept, and ship in Sept/Oct. In time to meet the OEM fall scheduling.

nVidia's "Spring Line-up" is launched in March, and ships April/May.

In other words, if NV18 and NV28 is "launched" next week, and ships in Sept, is that suppossed to be nVidia's "summer" part?