Nintendo Switch Event 2017-01-12 and Switch Launch discussion

[Eteric]

Nintendo is gambling that shiny new hardware coupled with their biggest Zelda game in history will carry the Switch at launch, and guess what, they are right. Switch will be sold out immediately at launch. Zelda is going to carry Switch until the release of MK8 Deluxe and ARMS, which will inject some needed energy to maintain any momentum. Then we have Splatoon in summer, and Mario Odysey, Xenoblade 2, Fire Emblem Warriors, and Skyrim to carry Switches first Christmas. By launching in March, this will allow Nintendo the opportunity to gauge the popularity of Switch, and make adjustments if needed. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Smash Bros U get a port to Switch, announced at E3. This is a strong year one from Nintendo. How much weight do these games carry in 2017? I don't know, going to be interesting to see Switch either really take off or fall flat on its face.

Honestly, I agree. Switch is going to be THE Nintendo system. If Nintendo truly lets the 3DS die and fires on all cylinders on Switch, it will be a very desireable console even for people who already own a PS4. It will really depend on how they go about it. If they also keep on making new IPs like Splatoon and ARMs, that could bring in a lot of people who were simply tired of Mario and Zelda.

There's a lot of ways they can make this thing very successful, despite the current negativity.

 

[Syferz]

Nintendo's most sold hardware (ds) had a much softer launch and GBA was only 3 years old and seemingly had a much longer life ahead of it, so the idea that Switch's launch is somehow already cast the Switch to fail is foolish to say the least, Switch has a very strong line up for 2017, especially if Pokémon Stars launches this year as rumored. (already a confirmed game btw)

 

[Strange]

Well to be fair they have a usb port on the switch and so you can put out a camera / gps / lte adapter to enable those types of games.

Each sold for $79.99.

That's right, EACH

 

[eastmen]

Each sold for $79.99.

That's right, EACH

don't forget you need a charge grip for it otherwise there goes the battery life of the switch

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Because Nintendo handhelds get more software than their home console counterparts (More, not better), and this is effectively a home console as well. All of Nintendo's teams have to make games for it, they don't have to make different games like with Wii U and 3ds.

True as long as those devs are still interested in Nintendo's handheld. But if it doesn't sell, they may move on. Make 3DS a whiles longer as long as they are still workable, then move to mobile.

Same goes for 3rd parties, if they wanted to make a game for Nintendo's handheld, but not the home console or vice versa ; they only have one option now.

3rd parties never bothered with Wii U so there's not really going to be a massive influx of 'console' games onto Nintendo's new 'handheld'.

Personally I think the software situation may end up dire. I think the platform could well sell in small enough numbers that it's not fiscally viable as a platform and becomes Vita-like. It's a platform that needs some good fortune in the first year or it's dead, IMO.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Nintendo is gambling that shiny new hardware coupled with their biggest Zelda game in history will carry the Switch at launch, and guess what, they are right.

The only Zelda that was exclusive to the 3DS sold 2.5 million units.
Looking at the ridiculous launch line-up, buyers of the Switch on launch window will be mostly Nintendo hardcore fans (which right now seems to be ~10million and going down).
And hardcore fans are the ones who already own a Wii U, for which Breadth of the Wild will be a lot cheaper.

Nintendo's most sold hardware (ds) had a much softer launch and GBA was only 3 years old and seemingly had a much longer life ahead of it, so the idea that Switch's launch is somehow already cast the Switch to fail is foolish to say the least, Switch has a very strong line up for 2017, especially if Pokémon Stars launches this year as rumored. (already a confirmed game btw)

The Switch's launch has already cast the Switch's launch to fail, unless they do a 180º on lots of stuff in the meanwhile. That's my personal opinion, foolish or not.

As for the Switch being cast to fail, it's up in the air. Nintendo's efforts weren't enough to put ever make the Wii U a profitable platform. The 3DS only gained traction after a huge price reduction only 4 months after release.
At $220 base or $250 with Zelda, the console would probably fly off the shelves. The pricing for now is pretty terrible. It's a pretty terrible product regarding launch line-up, 3rd-party presence, value-for-the-money, hardware features, software features and online features.

Same goes for 3rd parties, if they wanted to make a game for Nintendo's handheld, but not the home console or vice versa ; they only have one option now.

3DS-exclusive games have been mostly jRPGs or visual novels with very low budgets. Most of those jRPGs have to use Super-Deformed characters because those take a lot less polygons and don't look as bad with low-quality textures.

Those japanese 3DS third-parties can just move over to Vita and/or mobile phones.
That way they can make prettier games (do away with the Super-Deformed limitation), justifying the platform transition, while not putting all their eggs into a platform whose future is uncertain and so far has had a terrible public reception.

 

[Allandor]

As for the Switch being cast to fail, it's up in the air. Nintendo's efforts weren't enough to put ever make the Wii U a profitable platform. The 3DS only gained traction after a huge price reduction only 4 months after release.
At $220 base or $250 with Zelda, the console would probably fly off the shelves. The pricing for now is pretty terrible. It's a pretty terrible product regarding launch line-up, 3rd-party presence, value-for-the-money, hardware features, software features and online features.

don't forget the 99€/$ 2DS which brought many new customers to the 3DS games.
Well, hardcore Nintendo fans might but this new "console"/"handheld"/whatever but the pricing is definit much to high to get the attraction of more customers.
Can the new controllers really be more expensive than the Wiimotes?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The only Zelda that was exclusive to the 3DS sold 2.5 million units.

Well console Zelda sales were far stronger. We have no idea whether we should be comparing buying habits to consoles or handhelds!

And hardcore fans are the ones who already own a Wii U, for which Breadth of the Wild will be a lot cheaper.

That's a fair point actually. Releasing on Wii U gives very little reason for Wii U owners to sidegrade.

As for the Switch being cast to fail, it's up in the air. Nintendo's efforts weren't enough to put ever make the Wii U a profitable platform. The 3DS only gained traction after a huge price reduction only 4 months after release.

Indeed
http://kotaku.com/5825489/nintendos-hardware-sales-arent-looking-so-hot

That would be OK if the new 3DS was doing a roaring trade, but in the past three months only 710,000 of the new handhelds have been sold. Worldwide.

And

Here's hoping for their sake the Wii U is a big hit!

I love the Internet's ability to record history in such a dynamic and accessible way!

http://kotaku.com/5825495/nintendo-3ds-gets-sudden-massive-price-drop

The 3DS only went on sale earlier this year for $249, but as of August 12, it'll be slashed all the way down to $169.99. That's...wow.

3DS could only sell en masse at $170, not $250. Switch is $300 for base...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Can the new controllers really be more expensive than the Wiimotes?

Yes. Wiimotes had the most basic of accelerometers and fewer buttons and no rumble.

 

[phoenix_chipset]

True as long as those devs are still interested in Nintendo's handheld. But if it doesn't sell, they may move on. Make 3DS a whiles longer as long as they are still workable, then move to mobile.

3rd parties never bothered with Wii U so there's not really going to be a massive influx of 'console' games onto Nintendo's new 'handheld'.

Personally I think the software situation may end up dire. I think the platform could well sell in small enough numbers that it's not fiscally viable as a platform and becomes Vita-like. It's a platform that needs some good fortune in the first year or it's dead, IMO.

No way in hell it's a Vita, I wish we could bet on it lol. Devs will move on from the 3ds, it's very weak esp. the original model that has a cpu so anemic it can't even emulate snes.

I don't expect the thing to get the battlefield's and gta's, but at least the ancient cpu and gimmicky tablet has been taken out of the equation.

Personally, I see it outselling the 3ds, but getting nowhere near the OG DS. Exciting times are ahead that's for sure. It definitely, definitely will sell more units than gamecube.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

No way in hell it's a Vita, I wish we could bet on it lol. Devs will move on from the 3ds.

Why from the 3DS? Nintendo aren't discontinuing it. And why to the $300 Switch instead of mobile?

There's definitely scope for games on a new platform with little competition, but it's chicken and egg. Who wants to make games for a platform with no users? Who wants to buy a platform with no games? And Switch isn't looking greater for software especially given the high hardware price. How many dollars are new owners going to spend on software? I see parallels with a certain $400 VR headset. Who wants to buy a $400 headset with only a handful of titles to play, and not much money to spend on them once the headset is bought? Who wants to write software for a VR headset that isn't owned by many people and who have less money left to spend on software? Of coruse Switch is going to sell many more initial units than PSVR, but there's no reason to believe it'll maintain a robust market IMO. Could very easily do a Wii U/Vita. I don't see any evidence showing this isn't a possiblity.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Can the new controllers really be more expensive than the Wiimotes?

Yes. Wiimotes had the most basic of accelerometers and fewer buttons and no rumble.

To be fair, back in 2006 the MEMS accelerometers that were present in the Wiimotes hadn't really entered into a real economy of scale.
This was before smartphones, over a year before the iphone was introduced.
MEMS accelerometers were actually top-notch technology, not to mention the embedded IR camera, some flash memory to store user-specific data and a speaker.
The MEMS gyroscope was probably so expensive in 2006 that only a few years later would be made available through an add-on to insert in the back of the original Wiimote (the Wiimote Plus had it integrated).
Nowadays, a MEMS gyroscope+accelerometer probably costs pennies, but 10 years ago it probably wasn't like that at all.


So going back to the original question, there's a good chance the Joycons are actually cheaper to make than the Wiimote was back in 2006.

 

[phoenix_chipset]

Why from the 3DS? Nintendo aren't discontinuing it.

So you might say... the switch is a third pillar.

As for mobile, that's a platform for people with more money than sense, people buy those just to have the latest gizmo, same with vr in its current form. I heard the same bs about the 3ds failing because of mobile, well it didn't, and I know the reasons why. Mobile's also a platform for games that you put down after 5 minutes while you're on the subway or bus. Mobile isn't taking over *anything* anytime soon.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

So you might say... the switch is a third pillar.

No, it's not. Nintendo has closed all the purchase links to Wii U in their page while stating they're still supporting the 3DS.

It's a second pillar next to the 3DS, so it's not replacing their successful console. It's replacing their failure (while seemingly keeping all the mistakes of the previous failure).

 

[CaffeinatedChris]

It's a second pillar next to the 3DS, so it's not replacing their successful console. It's replacing their failure (while seemingly keeping all the mistakes of the previous failure).

Don't forget adding a few new failures: more expensive base hardware, higher priced accessories, paid online that requires a smartphone app for many features, no backwards compatibility ...

 

[Goodtwin]

Yes. Wiimotes had the most basic of accelerometers and fewer buttons and no rumble.

Wii remotes do have rumble.

The Switch is already sold out. Its launch is already off to a great start, and it doesn't release till March 3rd. The best thing Nintendo has going for it is the ability to get aggressive if need be leading into its first Christmas. If things really slow down, they can drop the price and bundle a game to make sure they maximize sales. Launching in March gives them flexibility. As a day one Switch gamer, that's aggravating in a way, because I will then have paid a huge premium to buy Switch at launch, but so is the way of things.

I just get the feeling that there are multiple people here who are anticipating, even rooting for Switch to fail, so that they can have the stratification of saying they were right. However, if the Switch does well, I doubt they will concede that they were just wrong. Somehow the success wont count, and they will give reasons why this isn't a sustainable business and try and undermine its success. Basically, Switch could sell 10 million units this year, and certain members here will refuse to accept that its a successful platform. I read forum post all the time with people undermining the success of the DS and Wii, its all BS, the entertainment industry is always evolving, what works now wont be successful in 20 years.

Concerns are all valid with Switch, we are having them amongst the most passionate Nintendo fans. Paid online for a second rate online experience? Very expensive accessories? Limited lineup of games at launch? These are real concerns that we all have. Will this turn away your average consumer? I don't know, but we will know pretty quickly. It took 4 years for Nintendo to sell 12 million Wii U's, and if it can do that in 12-16 months, then its obviously penetrating the market with much better success than Wii U.

As for Vita/3DS developers going mobile.......Come on, really? So they have just been waiting on that cash cow all these years? For realz people, most developers quickly found out that success in the mobile market is like hitting the lottery. Huge dividends if you hit it, but chances of success are very low. There is a reason developers like Image and Form have supported Wii U and 3DS, their games sell far better on dedicated gaming hardware than they do on mobile. Mobile isn't replacing dedicated gaming devices, more so for developers than consumers. Developers haven't been supporting 3DS and Vita if they believe their games would do better on mobile.

 

[phoenix_chipset]

I just get the feeling that there are multiple people here who are anticipating, even rooting for Switch to fail, so that they can have the stratification of saying they were right. However, if the Switch does well, I doubt they will concede that they were just wrong.

Oh there are.

What they'll do if it sells well is they'll just shift it over to a quality argument, like how most people call the wii "gimmicky crap." Or "the graphics suck." Which ok, a lot that sells well isn't actually good, but the Wii is probably the most underrated console of all time. There are plenty of games which use the Wii's unique features in smart and beneficial ways, and it just has great games in general. Like, the Ps2 doesn't have tons of shovelware?

...Anywho I definitely have concerns about the switch, but it definitely isn't set up for failure like the Wii U (a console which I admit isn't good, despite a few great games.)

 

[phoenix_chipset]

No, it's not. Nintendo has closed all the purchase links to Wii U in their page while stating they're still supporting the 3DS.

It's a second pillar next to the 3DS, so it's not replacing their successful console. It's replacing their failure (while seemingly keeping all the mistakes of the previous failure).

Yeah, the Wii U and GBA situations are pretty substantial in that the gba didn't get dropped like a ton of bricks, but all the same, the writing is on the wall for the 3ds. There's no reason to keep supporting vastly inferior hardware.

I mean come on people, every company does this. Sony made god of war 2 for the ps2 after ps3 launched, and they said it'd have a 10 year life cycle but outside of the occasional fifa and madden it really didn't. I can see the 3ds getting software for an extra year ; games that were already in development for it. Then after that, just the occasional cash in.

 

[Rikimaru]

Yeah, the Wii U and GBA situations are pretty substantial in that the gba didn't get dropped like a ton of bricks, but all the same, the writing is on the wall for the 3ds. There's no reason to keep supporting vastly inferior hardware.

I mean come on people, every company does this. Sony made god of war 2 for the ps2 after ps3 launched, and they said it'd have a 10 year life cycle but outside of the occasional fifa and madden it really didn't. I can see the 3ds getting software for an extra year ; games that were already in development for it. Then after that, just the occasional cash in.

Sony systems have a really long life.
PS3 is going to have Persona 5. PSP got Trails in the Sky SC in 2015.

 

[phoenix_chipset]

Sony systems have a really long life.
PS3 is going to have Persona 5. PSP got Trails in the Sky SC in 2015.

And I was thinking of atlas when I wrote that, devil summoner on ps2 came out late as well. But I couldn't think of anyone besides atlas, and a couple of late games would be considered life support if anything. Point is, if the 3ds is going to be supported for the next couple of years it's going to be very limited and eventually it'll have to pack it up.

Pretty glad P5 is coming to Ps3 though, since I won't be getting any non nintendo console after the 7th gen now that they're basically closed box PCs.