I wanted to have this discussion but I wasn't sure where to post this. So instead of starting a new thread, I will pose the question in here.
In regards to mid-generation refreshes, do we still think they are coming this gen?
I feel like it has been a forgone conclusion by many that since PS4/Xbox One gen had refreshes that this gen will have it too.
I would like to say that I don't think thats the case for a few reasons.
Cost:
Richard from DF has stated that in his conversations with MS that he was informed that the prices of memory is not expected to drop enough to make any upgrades tangible while still hitting an attractive price point.
We have just witnessed Sony increase the price of Playstation 5 almost 2 years after launch due to global economic pressures. So, a fair assumption can be made is that we will not see a significant price drop within the next 12-18 months. This price drop would be needed to make a more powerful and expensive machine still viable in the market.
In general, we know how expensive it is to bring new hardware to market. Its more than just the bill of materials. Its also R&D, administration, shipping and some other costs that are associated with it that may deter these companies to rethink the strategy. Why take the loss if you don't have to?
Corporations in general have been looking at cutting spending due to economic uncertainty.
Incentive:
Playstation executives have been on record stating that the PS4 Pro was released to stop users from migrating to PC. Well, the times and strategies have changed. Playstation is in the process of developing their PS PC brand so instead of launching new hardware, they will just support those gamers who moved to PC by releasing titles for them.
Xbox is in a similar situation as well. Honestly, the Xbox brand seems to be PC first at this point. It seems like all of their marketing efforts this year have been about PC Game Pass as that has been looked at as a key area for growth. So, with that thought process in mind, why launch more powerful hardware, the people who crave the highest end stuff will still be the ecosystem through services.
Ease of development:
For a variety of reasons we still have cross gen titles. Also, we still havent even seen any 1P Xbox exclusives launch to really showcase the system. I believe that our current XSX/PS5 systems can still be leveraged to produce pretty visuals so why burden them with another SKU to worry about testing for?
Even the biggest developers have limited resources. The more platforms/skus you have to develop for will have a negative effect on optimization per sku. Certain hardware features like mesh shaders already require a ton of debugging, so why give them the extra work?
Any thoughts of this? Or am I rehashing a topic that has already been discussed to death.