Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [pre E3 2019]

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MrFox said:
I think someone here mentionned sony's gnm not being very friendly to translation?
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Those kinds of oversights are real head scratchers. After Nintendo's handheld team had managed forward/backward compatibility for Gameboy in the 80's and kept on maintaining it gen after gen, I still can't believe how little effort console designers seam to put into planning ahead for that stuff.
 
GDDR5 next-gen :V /s

Nice to have a reference ballpark figure though. Give it another year...

ahem.
 
Yeah, how does this compare to last gen...people back then said the PS4 RAM was too expensive to have 8gb;

http://www.redgamingtech.com/ps4-developers-were-speechless-when-8gb-gddr5-ram-was-announced/

"It’s extremely likely that one of the major reasons developers were so surprised at Sony’s announcement is the extra costs associated with the 8GB of GDDR5 RAM. Prices regularly fluctuate on RAM, but the PS4’s RAM is currently around 30 dollars more expensive than the PS4’Xbox One’s. Cost and worries over yields of chips large enough to provide 8GB RAM are the reasons its thought Microsoft opted to go with DDR3 in the X1."
 
DieH@rd said:
https://www.techpowerup.com/251108/gddr6-memory-costs-70-percent-more-than-gddr5
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Comment on that article from a reader there questioning the accuracy of it all as list prices show 27% difference not 70%.

The main thing in this article is a consistent flow of brown bullshit.
70% is ridiculous. Just by going to Digikey and verifying prices can shed some light:
1) Micron 8Gbit GDDR5 1.5GHz : $18.50
2) Micron 8Gbit GDDR6 1.5GHz : $22.25 (+20%)
3) Micron 8Gbit GDDR6 1.75GHz : $23.58 (+27%)

GDDR5 also became more expensive this year. To be more specific - 40+% more expensive than it was last year.
Not sure out of who's ass did they pull that 70%.
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Regarding listed price sources: component-mart.com (or component-mart/shop/center. *[insert your local zone here]) is a scam. So far the only reviews I've managed to find(since I've never heard of them) are either bad or non-existent. Website(s) are ranked in either "scam" or "suspicious" or "non-trustworthy" categories, so this invalidates pretty much the whole article by 3Dcenter.
Shit, if that GDDR5 was really that cheap, they'd be out by now. Just to put this in perspective - $6 for 1.5GHz GDDR5 is comparable to the current retail of old 4Gb GDDR5(overstock most likely), or refurbished 8Gbit chips on Ali (read "used and reballed from dead mining cards").

EDIT: Some reviews
https://www.trustpilot.com/review/www.components-center.com
https://www.supplierblacklist.com/2018/11/26/components-mart/
https://www.supplierblacklist.com/2017/09/09/components-center-review/
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BRiT said:
Thats DDR3 vs GDDR5 for those not following along at home.
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I suppose I'm just saying that the RAM cost ~60% more in PS4 so does it really matter that this RAM might be 70% more? (even though it seems that figure is off anyway)
 
goonergaz said:
I suppose I'm just saying that the RAM cost ~60% more in PS4 so does it really matter that this RAM might be 70% more? (even though it seems that figure is off anyway)
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The reality is that the memory type is a necessity for performance. The question is how much RAM can be budgeted and at what speeds in terms of tempering expectations.

The HW design teams will be looking at the performance per dollar metric, not just cost in a vacuum.

edit:

The irony is that MS betting on more RAM (and worse performance) led to Sony choosing to roll with the extra cost and ultimately force some humble pie down Mattrick's sore throat, costing MS the generation.

:V

ahem. :p
 
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From ram manufacturers statements, we know the production cost overhead of gddr6 is 20% at launch and will drop to 10% afterwards. But that doesn't include offer/demand price gouging. Maybe that 70% isn't crazy until production ramps up.

Not sure I fully understand, but it looks like the low quantity suppliers like digikey, farnell, mouser etc... don't change the price based on offer and demand. That's why you see the availability at 0 with no lead time, you won't get anything from there until the supply side can make more parts than their big contracts ask for. So it follows that large orders which require a hundred million chips is going to be much more expensive if the supply is limited.

The 8GB of ps4 wasn't just buying twice the chips for twice the price on a whim, it must have required a significant negociation to get the rumored low price sony managed to get. I speculate that rebalancing the yield by helping samsung dump a stable hundred million lowest bin gddr5 per year might have been profitable to both companies. It increased the availability of the very profitable high speeds bins for samsung.
 
MrFox said:
From ram manufacturers statements, we know the production cost overhead of gddr6 is 20% at launch and will drop to 10% afterwards. But that doesn't include offer/demand price gouging. Maybe that 70% isn't crazy until production ramps up.

Not sure I fully understand, but it looks like the low quantity suppliers like digikey, farnell, mouser etc... don't change the price based on offer and demand. That's why you see the availability at 0 with no lead time, you won't get anything from there until the supply side can make more parts than their big contracts ask for. So it follows that large orders which require a hundred million chips is going to be much more expensive if the supply is limited.

The 8GB of ps4 wasn't just buying twice the chips for twice the price on a whim, it must have required a significant negociation to get the rumored low price sony managed to get. I speculate that rebalancing the yield by helping samsung dump a stable hundred million lowest bin gddr5 per year might have been profitable to both companies. It increased the availability of the very profitable high speeds bins for samsung.
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Can you please link the source for your first paragraph? Thanks.
 
anexanhume said:
Can you please link the source for your first paragraph? Thanks.
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https://www.gamersnexus.net/industr...-next-gen-nvidia-gpus-3-month-mass-production

Also of interest, we learned that GDDR6 will be about 20% more expensive in manufacturer cost than GDDR5 at launch. That cost will obviously be passed on from board vendors to consumers. GDDR6 should come down to +15% and +10% over time, as mass production ramps and overtakes GDDR5 production lines in the factories.
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New specs for HBM2E, it allows 16gbits per die.
https://www.jedec.org/news/pressrel...breaking-high-bandwidth-memory-hbm-standard-0
JEDEC standard JESD235B for HBM leverages Wide I/O and TSV technologies to support densities up to 24 GB per device at speeds up to 307 GB/s. This bandwidth is delivered across a 1024-bit wide device interface that is divided into 8 independent channels on each DRAM stack. The standard can support 2-high, 4-high, 8-high, and 12-high TSV stacks of DRAM at full bandwidth to allow systems flexibility on capacity requirements from 1 GB – 24 GB per stack.
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The jesd235b doc is not available for free yet.

A single stack of 4 of even the garbage speed bin would allow a ps4pro-slim?
 
MrFox said:
New specs for HBM2E, it allows 16gbits per die.
https://www.jedec.org/news/pressrel...breaking-high-bandwidth-memory-hbm-standard-0

The jesd235b doc is not available for free yet.

A single stack of 4 of even the garbage speed bin would allow a ps4pro-slim?
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I doubt they revise the pro. Going to a 128-bit GDDR6 bus makes more sense if you’re going to touch the memory controller.

Tkumpathenurpahl said:
Why is it that it only comes in even numbered stacks, why no 5-high stacks, for example?
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Notice they skip 10-stacks too. I’m not sure why.
 
Tkumpathenurpahl said:
Why is it that it only comes in even numbered stacks, why no 5-high stacks, for example?
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anexanhume said:
Notice they skip 10-stacks too. I’m not sure why.
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It's a question of banking and channel aggregation through the stack. With HBM the stack gets full speed and full bank count from 4 dies together, (2 channels per die, 8 channels on the interface at the bottom of the stack). Anything that isn't a multiple of 4 makes little sense unless it's the half speed 2hi and quarter speed 1hi for special low capacity and low power needs, I don't think those exist yet outside of standards docs.

It would be like putting different dimm sizes or count in different ddr4 channels on a PC, or using a single dimm and leaving the other channels empty. You know, like Dell does all the time.
 
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