Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

Discussion in 'Console Technology' started by Tkumpathenurpahl, Jan 19, 2018.

Tags:
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. ultragpu

    Legend Veteran

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    5,364
    Likes Received:
    1,590
    Location:
    Australia
    I think Sony has always aimed towards having the best specs at launch, they are a hardware centric company after all and competing bleeding edge tech is their specialty. The reason PS3 tanked initially was mainly due to its extreme awkward and difficult hardware architecture to program, not because of taking risks. They can certainly take risks in a different way such as go nuts with the hardware juice but not necessarily making it difficult to program. They've learned their lesson and acquired knowledge of what works and what not, if they can push a 14-15tf machine without Cell 2.0 esque design then we'll have a winner for sure.
     
  2. Xbat

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2013
    Messages:
    797
    Likes Received:
    448
    Location:
    A farm in the middle of nowhere
    If they hit 14-15 tflop machine it will make it very hard if not impossible for Microsoft to beat it. I feel it's going to be closer to 12 TFlops.
     
  3. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
    Moderator Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2004
    Messages:
    40,505
    Likes Received:
    10,877
    Location:
    Under my bridge
    An XBox gaming laptop sound pretty niche to me. An 8" Surface Pro gaming tablet sounds far more appealing. Don't aim for console level performance - just compatibility with the library so you can buy and play on home console and PC and tablet. Is a PC architecture going to scale down that low though?
     
  4. Xbat

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2013
    Messages:
    797
    Likes Received:
    448
    Location:
    A farm in the middle of nowhere
    Better off selling a console that can stream to tablets and whatever else with a screen. Me thinks.
     
    BRiT likes this.
  5. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
    Legend Regular Subscriber

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2014
    Messages:
    7,715
    Likes Received:
    6,006
    The idea would bank on whether they would use continuum here and allow the user to switch from w10 desktop device to Xbox OS.
     
  6. anexanhume

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Messages:
    1,482
    Likes Received:
    668
  7. phoenix_chipset

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2016
    Messages:
    546
    Likes Received:
    246
    I've been seeing quality 1tb ssd's for $200 and lesser known brands or wd blues for even less. If we're due for launch in 2020 i'm 100% expecting a full ssd solution.

    Would be interesting if ps5 launches sooner with a hybrid storage and scarlett launches after with a non comprised solution. Ms has branded external ssd's available for xbox one so they probably want to go that route.
     
  8. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
    Legend Veteran

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2012
    Messages:
    5,360
    Likes Received:
    3,850
    The storage on consoles is whatever they can get for $35 to $40. Right now an SSD in that range is barely enough for the OS and apps provisions. They need at least 2TB for next gen, so the cost of SSD is currently 10x too much.
     
    goonergaz and milk like this.
  9. Megadrive1988

    Veteran

    Joined:
    May 30, 2002
    Messages:
    4,637
    Likes Received:
    148

    I think a 12-14 TFlop PS5 is reasonable. It still does not leave much room for Microsoft to beat it.
     
  10. phoenix_chipset

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2016
    Messages:
    546
    Likes Received:
    246
    I think 1tb is enough to start. We launched with 500gb this gen and that's also what ps3's were shipping with. 1X with its ridiculously huge (bloated) games like gears 4 and f7 only has 1tb. The ps3 had a 20gb option at launch!

    Also, they won't be paying newegg prices. Just last nov. 1tb drives were more than $250 easy so another year and a half who knows. + bulk buying...?

    Another non hybrid option I suppose are 3.5inch 7200rpm drives but that'd make the consoles bigger. Given full speed sata 6 connections would be good enough, hopefully with the option to upgrade later to ssd like ps4.
     
  11. anexanhume

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Messages:
    1,482
    Likes Received:
    668
    I regularly see the 2TB Micron for $250. By 2020, we should be under 10 cents/GB.
     
  12. BRiT

    BRiT (╯°□°)╯
    Moderator Legend Alpha Subscriber

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    12,274
    Likes Received:
    8,468
    Location:
    Cleveland
    We wont be seeing 1TB SSD in any console with a $399 launch price in 2019 or even 2020. The most we might be fortunate enough to have is a SSHD hybrid 2.5" internal drive. Maybe in 2020 on a premium model at $499 there might be a 64-128GB flash unit that acts as an accelerator for the current game being played.

    They will however improve the external ports for USB3.1 and fully support UASP so external SSD units will take full advantage of that protocol.

    Thats my realistic thoughts on the matter.
     
    milk, temesgen and Xbat like this.
  13. anexanhume

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Messages:
    1,482
    Likes Received:
    668
    I think full USB 3.1 support is a great idea. I also think a 512GB base SSD could be viable.
     
  14. BRiT

    BRiT (╯°□°)╯
    Moderator Legend Alpha Subscriber

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    12,274
    Likes Received:
    8,468
    Location:
    Cleveland
    I dont believe they would downgrade to under 1TB of storage. So that makes a base unit with 1TB too costly for reasonable market penetration. Even at 500gb the SSD cost will be more than the typical $35 budget allocated for storage. Thats why I dont see there being anything but SSHD as being viable at the entry level.

    By then the data density of drives will allow them to perform faster. The drives in the One and S are around 40 MB/s while the X is 60 MB/s, posted on DigitalFoundry. The specs of the raw drive in One and S should be 75MB/s, but measured perf is lower. The Sata 2 connections have max speed of 300MB/s but that doesnt account for some protocol overhead. Also USB 3 with default protocol has practical limits around 250 MB/s, but with UASP the limit is around 400 MB/s.

    So some easy performance increases for nextgen are SATA 3, USB3.1 for 10Gbps with 128b/132b encodings, and throw in UASP support for higher efficiency. That will allow external drives and external SSDs to really shine.

    Maybe they'll even add in support for USB 3.2 Gen 2x2, but I highly doubt it.

    Of course that assumes the CPU is has enough performance to make use of it.
     
    AzBat likes this.
  15. BRiT

    BRiT (╯°□°)╯
    Moderator Legend Alpha Subscriber

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    12,274
    Likes Received:
    8,468
    Location:
    Cleveland
    Thought it might be useful to the discussion on why MS did not include an SSD on the One X and instead stayed with the eMMC setup, posted on Reddit from a member of the "XboxOne Dev Team" (software side).

    Namely pointing out that additional PCIe lanes would be needed for NVMe support which would require additional architecture rework, additional costs for SSD, and the lack of genuine benefit when internal connections limit it already to 3GBps.

    Now perhaps the next-gen architecture can be designed fresh to have dedicated NVMe support or Sata III.

     
    iroboto likes this.
  16. phoenix_chipset

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2016
    Messages:
    546
    Likes Received:
    246
    The never ssd crowd reminds me of peeps saying we'd be lucky to get 4gb ram this gen. The possibility is definitely there even if we don't get them, nand has already come down a hell of a lot the last couple years. @anexanhume And yeah, i've also seen those 2tb ssds for $250 but I thought it was a scam at first :lol:
     
  17. Liandry

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2011
    Messages:
    319
    Likes Received:
    37
    Some people here said what next gen consoles will be 14tf. That is 10x more than Xbox One S, that is good, but only ~2x more than Xbox One X. Next consoles will be 4k, like Xbox One X already, so with this little difference in power graphics improvements will be very little if any. Also if next gen consoles will have only 32GB of RAM this also is not enough. Because for 4k games textures should be with 4x resolution. If current gen consoles use 3GB of RAM for textures that means what next gen consoles will need 48GB of RAM only for textures. So they should have 64GB of RAM.
     
  18. eloyc

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2009
    Messages:
    1,949
    Likes Received:
    1,130
    Your math is all wrong. ;-)

    "only 32GB of RAM"? That is far more RAM than what is feasibly possible in a near future. Also, 4K doesn't necessarily mean that we need the current texture resolution x4.

    I recommend you read past posts in this thread to better understand this, since there's a lot of information and realistic speculation as well.
     
  19. AlBran

    AlBran Ferro-Fibrous
    Moderator Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2004
    Messages:
    20,604
    Likes Received:
    5,710
    Location:
    ಠ_ಠ
    The early speculation was marred by the lack of info regarding higher density GDDR5, but we had a pretty good idea of what options were possible on a particular memory bus circa 2011/early 2012. The 4Gbit variety wasn't quite public info until towards the latter half of 2012.

    There were also cost considerations to temper expectations (16 chips in clamshell for 256-bit bus for how many years, devkits, was 8Gbit even happening etc.).

    Folks probably shouldn't have said "impossible" or "never". Literally.

    It's been interesting that GDDR5 has lasted for about a decade now.

    ----

    Anyways, you're not offering much of a discussion point by appealing to a past prediction of an unrelated HW component ( that not everyone even necessarily, definitively asserted) as a means for justifying your expectations for non-volatile storage. :embarrased:
     
    #1819 AlBran, Jul 2, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2018
    vipa899 and BRiT like this.
  20. Liandry

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2011
    Messages:
    319
    Likes Received:
    37
    In PC's there's already 64GB of RAM and even 128GB of RAM, but we are talking about consoles what will release in 2020-2021.

    And what about TF?
     
Loading...
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Beyond3D has been around for over a decade and prides itself on being the best place on the web for in-depth, technically-driven discussion and analysis of 3D graphics hardware. If you love pixels and transistors, you've come to the right place!

    Beyond3D is proudly published by GPU Tools Ltd.
Loading...