Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

Discussion in 'Console Technology' started by Tkumpathenurpahl, Jan 19, 2018.

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  1. DieH@rd

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    If the PS5 is indeed coming out in 2019, I hope that devs will stick to checkerboard rendering for a while more. GPU will not be as strong, and I would rather they invest rendering resources in sub-4K resolution that will be ironed out [checkerboarded] into great looking 4K output.
     
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  2. Shortbread

    Shortbread Island Hopper
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    If there are PS5 SDKs out in the wind 'now' ...I don't see a 2019 launch happening. Even a mediocre first-party launch title would require more time than a year, let alone a high quality one. Maybe late 2020 at best.
     
  3. fehu

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    If the PS5 will be based on amd tech, this time a developer can easily "port" a pc game or an existing engine.
    It will be "good enough" for a launch title, so no need to wait till 2020
     
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  4. dobwal

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    Mobile phones are redesigned on a yearly basis. It's not like your brand new iPhone or android set is using the same memory from 2013.

    MS nor Sony are looking for more memory and bandwidth while demanding better power efficiency on a yearly basis. It's easier for them to lock in prices and shipping schedules over longer terms because they aren't forcing memory makers to constantly retool their production lines and deal with things like migration costs.

    LG's strategy involved putting in orders a month earlier to ensure supply. I doubt Sony or MS is ordering memory in such a short term fashion.

    https://motherboard.vice.com/amp/en...ing-iphone-may-be-causing-component-shortages

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-to-lock-up-memory-chip-supply-idUSKBN19B39S

    These articles are talking how some memory customers are moving away from 3 month contract and towards 6 month supply contracts. Unless you are a big consumer like apple, you are going to get caught up in short term volatility when your contracts are limited to such time periods.
     
    #404 dobwal, Mar 8, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
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  5. Globalisateur

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    Never say never (except me here)
     
  6. rokkerkory

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    If 2019 for PS5, didn't cerny say ~8TF is needed for true 4k? I think they will shoot for that then if they really want it by next year. I hope 2020 however and give us more juice.
     
  7. TheAlSpark

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    I think the assumption there was that most devs target 1080p on PS4, so ~4x PS4 for shader/tex = 7.36TF. The 8TF figure was just a minimum figure (even some games are a bit less than 1080p on there), and could cover some additional enchantment though they'd cernly need to deal with scaling up bandwidth. Delta compression only helps with the ROP side of things, but maybe they can mitigate it with more GPU L2.

    Also would be curious to see updated results of renderers with different tile/cluster sizes with the larger framebuffer.
     
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  8. Mobius1aic

    Mobius1aic Quo vadis?
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    With all the PS4 and PS4 Pro work that has been accomplished and it's implications for the PS5, there's no real reason to ditch AMD. Any PS5 devkit out in the wild is just going to be reflective of target specs at launch, of which a current 8 core Zen and probably a Vega 56 or 64 should cover. The new consoles are already hinged upon the availability of new memory foundries and 7nm, so until they are online and spitting out good yields, no new consoles. 2019 Is the absolute earliest to expect new systems I suspect, with 2020 being the more sensible year.

    But how much memory will these new supposedly true 4K machines need? 16GB of HBM + 16GB of something less expensive?
     
    #408 Mobius1aic, Mar 8, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
  9. michael.green133

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    There is no way that the PS5 Will have 32 mb of memory

    Sent from my SM-S120VL using Tapatalk
     
  10. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    Considering this gen was 5GB available for games, I'm betting 18GB total with 16GB for games, over 3 times the memory should be fine.
     
  11. Mihailjones

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    Yes, 32mb wont happen.

    I hope for 16gb minium.

    Ps1 to 2 to 3 to 4 = ~8-16x mem on every gen.

    So even 32gb would not be much when looking back, but things have slown down so.
     
  12. Shifty Geezer

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    As mentioned before, with faster data streaming (SSD), memory requirements can be reduced. Pass the saving from less memory onto fast storage. I can't see a logical reason for any other design. 16 GBs + SSD will trump 32 GBs plus slow-ass HDD. Allow external HDDs (already present) for swapping in/out 'active' games to overcome the storage shortage. And with Sony-like partial installs, you don't even need to wait that long for a full copy. Can start the game and have a one minute 'loading' screen as the first GBs are copied over to SSD and run.
     
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  13. bitsandbytes

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    I would think it a bit too early for PS5 devkits of any description being in third party hands but maybe if the particular dev has a launch game it is possible? If devkits are in dev hands at all then late 2019 is an absolute lock surely?

    You don't have devkits nearly three years out. GG started Killzone:SF in March 2011 FYI so if late 2019 is to be the launch date then I expect first party are already ~1 year into dev of a launch game. Add on more extensive use of outsourcing now and I can see a AAA first party game on an existing, modified engine being completed in 2.5/3 years especially if a sequel.
     
  14. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    They can certainly have a rough target 3 years in advance, and use equivalent PCs to start development. I would think what AMD tells everyone publicly is different from what MS/Sony/Nintendo are told under rock solid NDA contracts. They probably already know what the post-navi architecture is...
     
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  15. Shortbread

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    I just don't see it happening in 2019. There are way too many triple-A PS4 games still penciled in for 2019. If Sony is releasing something in 2019, then it is not a PS5 or next generation system. Maybe another addition to the PS4 family (i.e, PS4 Pro+ or something like that).

    Even a PS5 supporting backward capability, using the PS4 software with nicer IQ (resolution) settings, isn't going to look majorly different from XB1-X games. I just don't see it happening in 2019, there is no reason for it.
     
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  16. bitsandbytes

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    We won't have to wait long to find out. GDC starts in like 10 days so any leaks/Kotaku articles will or will not start coming after then. If we do get leaks in the next month then 2019 is definitely happening for a new Sony console as there won't
    be any leaks (because no GDC disclosures this early) if PS5 is 2020.
     
  17. fehu

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    texture compression has made leaps from 2013's old tech
     
  18. milk

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    I don't understand why the overal tech forum userbase is always disapointed with the specs of new gen systems, as they were with ps4/bone and yet the moment there is a rumor of a next gen they want their companies to rush them out with whatever barely distinctive tech they can put out...
    What do you guys want?
     
  19. DieH@rd

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    It's better to be pessimistic :)

    I have no illusions, any kind of upgrade over old PS4 will be great news for games. Not having to aim for base gen7 systems will boost visual quality and size of the worlds dramatically, but the question remains by how much.
     
  20. milk

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    If the diffence is not big enough to be worth it, it will keep mostly recieving cross-gen titles anyway, and the first company to put itself in that position leaves the door opened for their competitors to wait it out a couple more years and release a more significantly superior kit, leaving your rushed product on a half-gen linbo.
    It happened to dreamcast.
     
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