Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

[Tkumpathenurple]

I highly doubt MS will ever go back to a console with a Power Brick, not after they showed they can perform electrical engineering feats too, unless it's more like the docking port of their Surface product where it's minimal and nothing like the power bricks from the X360 days.

I'm not so sure. Power bricks aren't desirable, but they're a worthwhile tradeoff if they get you a smaller, quieter, cooler, cheaper console.

For a flagship, like the X1X, I agree. But I wouldn't be surprised to find one with an XBoxOneSS.

 

[Megadrive1988]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/09/...-gaming-partnerships-with-sony-microsoft.html

About 8 minutes in. Obviously there's no actual info, just a neat headline, "secret sauce"

 

[Karamazov]

BarbeCUs sauce

 

[fehu]

Lisa Su talk with Woody Harrelson. Leaked the plot for True Detective's next season.

 

[cheapchips]

Is that as close to actual confirmation that MS are using AMD for next gen?

 

[VitaminB6]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/09/...-gaming-partnerships-with-sony-microsoft.html

About 8 minutes in. Obviously there's no actual info, just a neat headline, "secret sauce"

I'll waiting for the secret sauce in the Xbox l

BarbeCUs sauce

The next Xbox is already in our living rooms. Microsoft just needs to unlock the hidden GPU

 

[anexanhume]

Is that as close to actual confirmation that MS are using AMD for next gen?

That’s how I read it.

 

[Lalaland]

That’s how I read it.

I'll +1 this, it would be "I'm taking this company private at $420 a share" levels of dumb for the CEO to be talking about their strong relationship with MS if they weren't involved in the next gen platform. That's not to say CEOs don't say dumb things but Jim Cramer is a rather more middle of the road chap unlikely to beard the SEC for laughs.

 

[iroboto]

Definitely helpful piece of information there for this thread. We can narrow our prediction of hardware now which, given the history of work with AMD, we should come to have some expectations on the price of the consoles and possibly what to expect from a performance level. We can narrow our architecture solutions, and figure out what's available by 2020. Overall most of us were leaning this way anyway, but good to snip off the nvidia and ARM noise.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

For me, the exciting takeaway is that AMD is going to be adding ultra-core next-gen Cell raytracing-accelerated architectures to their CPU and GPU solutions.

 

[iroboto]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1037893489156083713

Raytracing demo on Xbox One X 100 sample per pixel.

This is nice to see DXR working as marketed here. This really bodes well for seeing the whole RT support movement move forward as a whole. Fast forward 2 years the landscape could be dramatically different from today. I can't imagine support at the xbox layer being very strong lol. But perhaps I'm completely wrong and they are working now in preparation for a future device.

Who knows!

 

[AlNom]

For me, the exciting takeaway is that AMD is going to be adding ultra-core next-gen Cell raytracing-accelerated architectures to their CPU and GPU solutions.

Is it time to Cellebrate the inclusion of Cell Units into Graphics Cell Next for next gen Raydeons

 

[MrFox]

The amiga blitter modified for ray tracing.

 

[anexanhume]

I'll +1 this, it would be "I'm taking this company private at $420 a share" levels of dumb for the CEO to be talking about their strong relationship with MS if they weren't involved in the next gen platform. That's not to say CEOs don't say dumb things but Jim Cramer is a rather more middle of the road chap unlikely to beard the SEC for laughs.

Exactly. Su has been very coy about announcing semi-custom wins in the past, so I know she’ll be very careful with wording on this.

 

[MrFox]

Dram is really dropping right now. DDR4 on dramexchange was $9/GB a few months ago, it's now $7.40 and continues to drop. It's the start of a long overdue market correction.

24GB is still a stretch for 2020, but not impossible. I think it needs GDDR6 to drop below $4/GB for a 399 console, or $5/GB for a 499.

By comparison, gddr5 was about the same price as ddr4 back when it peaked above $8 last year, so the dram production should keep this close. Gddr6 should be 10% more in 2020.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Dram is really dropping right now. DDR4 on dramexchange was $9/GB a few months ago, it's now $7.40 and continues to drop. It's the start of a long overdue market correction.

The thing about DRAM pricing is that's always an inverse-bell circle between new technology and old technology. New technology is always expensive which gets cheaper with mass-market adoption (economies of scale for production) which swings back expensive as it becomes less mainstream and more niche. The trick is jumping in at the right time. The swings between drop and rise are rarely mirror images.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

24GB is still a stretch for 2020, but not impossible. I think it needs GDDR6 to drop below $4/GB for a 399 console, or $5/GB for a 499.

Or...$5/GB for a $425 console. It'd be moronic to stick to a launch price-point defined by a Base 10 numbering system. If a system would be $399 at $4/GB intended, but price isn't that low come launch, sell it with the extra $25 price-tag.

 

[anexanhume]

Or...$5/GB for a $425 console. It'd be moronic to stick to a launch price-point defined by a Base 10 numbering system. If a system would be $399 at $4/GB intended, but price isn't that low come launch, sell it with the extra $25 price-tag.

That’s the case where you eat the loss because the mental consumer biases about the first number of the price drive so much of their behavior.

 

[MrFox]

Or...$5/GB for a $425 console. It'd be moronic to stick to a launch price-point defined by a Base 10 numbering system. If a system would be $399 at $4/GB intended, but price isn't that low come launch, sell it with the extra $25 price-tag.

I was thinking going with $120 for 24 would probably be a balanced choice to beef up everything since they'd use a 384bit bus. But the weird intermediate capacities are possible too... And you end up with more money into the memory than the SoC.

If they have a choice to add $25 more BOM, they would put it on the weak spot of the design. How they split the BOM between Ram, Storage, and the SoC, should favor boosting the SoC until ram becomes a problem?

 

[dten]

Thanks Dr. Su. So instead of water cooling, it'll be ranch dressing cooling?