Next-Gen Console Lifespan? (PS4 and Xbox One)
- Thread starter Mabru
- Start date
Anyways, that's entirely not a technical issue, so if this discussion continues on we'll likely need to move it to a new thread.
That all depends on how long both consoles will be on life support and what new rendering technologies emerge the next few years. The Xbox 360 (PS3 too?) will exist for another 3 years with new games lined up. That's insane to me, but then again there's 142 million of them in existence so it will be hard to ignore that market presence.
Personally, I can't envision even a 4TF console having a lifespan of 10 years. I hope next-gen (PS4/XB1) have a very short lifespan of 4-5 years. Bring on the replacement consoles in 2017-2018. And they better be always connected and digital delivery only! None of this antiquated technology or experience.
That all depends on how long both consoles will be on life support and what new rendering technologies emerge the next few years. The Xbox 360 (PS3 too?) will exist for another 3 years with new games lined up. That's insane to me, but then again there's 142 million of them in existence so it will be hard to ignore that market presence.
Personally, I can't envision even a 4TF console having a lifespan of 10 years. I hope next-gen (PS4/XB1) have a very short lifespan of 4-5 years. Bring on the replacement consoles in 2017-2018. And they better be always connected and digital delivery only! None of this antiquated technology or experience.
Rurouni
Veteran
Nope. It's more of a marketing speak to add the value of the console. But if it's meant as an assurance that the hardware itself could last for ten years (durable), then yes, I believe it.
The thing with X1 and especially PS4 is that they're using a customized PC tech, which makes it easier for the future console to have backward compatibility. I wouldn't be surprised if in 5 year (or even earlier) they would come out with a new console that is basically just a performance upgrade while still retaining the same architecture. And devs would probably make the game scalable where if you play it in X1 it would run in lower resolution / lower settings.
I hope it's shorter. 5-6 years.
6 years would be reasonable.
360 will be 8 years old when XBO comes. That's crazy. PS3 will have a 7 year span.
Heh, I still remember Shane Bettenhausen on weekend confirmed (podcast) back in like 2008 fudding how MS was developing a new console and might not support the 360 for long (because you know they did it for Xbox so it must always be true)...
6 years would be reasonable.
360 will be 8 years old when XBO comes. That's crazy. PS3 will have a 7 year span.
Heh, I still remember Shane Bettenhausen on weekend confirmed (podcast) back in like 2008 fudding how MS was developing a new console and might not support the 360 for long (because you know they did it for Xbox so it must always be true)...
People use much weaker hardware than the 360 every day (phones/tablets/portables) and it's almost 8 years old.
There's no reason to expect current hardware to get displaced any more rapidly, especially as each new generation approaches 'good enough', generations are quite capable of extending for longer.
There's no reason to expect current hardware to get displaced any more rapidly, especially as each new generation approaches 'good enough', generations are quite capable of extending for longer.
One issue is PS3/360 were much closer to state of the art at time of release then PS4/XBO.
Imagine if PS360 had released with, 1/3 the GPU power that they actually have (so basically, same GPU's but clocked at 166 mhz instead of 500). Not a pretty picture.
At least next gen didn't skimp on the RAM. I dont think any adjustment is needed for the RAM, 8GB today is comparable to 512MB in 2005 I think.
Yes, without a doubt. But that doesn't mean there won't be a new system out sooner than that. Two systems can coexist in time. IMO, MS has built a system that will scale down very well in terms of price so it should have a long lifetime.
I think part of the big ram reservation is future proofing as to where the Xbox platform will go as a whole.
ok the ps1 lasted 10 years
the ps2 lasted 10 years
the ps3 will last 10 years
now youre saying the PS4 will break the trend and be available for less time
So what does a game look like that's built for 3x the gpu power from the next gen? We might not find out for quite a few years.
Yep. You might be streaming your game from the Xbox cloud by then.
It could be kept a good all-round TV media box. It's well set up for that.
ok the ps1 lasted 10 years
the ps2 lasted 10 years
the ps3 will last 10 years
now youre saying the PS4 will break the trend and be available for less time
Well, I at least am counting until the successor is released. Of course consoles live 2-3 years after the successor comes on the market.
I'd easily prefer 5-6 years until PS5/XB4 come out, if they are to come out.
ok the ps1 lasted 10 years
the ps2 lasted 10 years
the ps3 will last 10 years
now youre saying the PS4 will break the trend and be available for less time
PS2 was only discontinued from production this year - this makes it 13 years. There were units on the shelf until a few months ago, ad least here where I live. Those units are now gone, so someone must have bought them.
There are still games released for it - ex. FIFA14.
The question all by itself belies a naive PC-centric, devoid-of-history perspective on the console world.
This.
For the early adopters, no. For the budget gamer and wider (international) markets, yes, just like other consoles.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
It depends how fast the Internet gets. Both Sony and MS want to move to the cloud, but can't seriously consider it until everyone is on super-broadband. I doubt that will happen this generation, but maybe the next...
Now you guys are completely forgetting one major thing. DIMINISHING RETURNS! How much longer do you think graphics will be improving? Is it worh spending 100s of hours on artwork that people might not be able to notice the difference?
In my opinion both of these consoles are fine capability wise. Next console gen, PS5 and X2, will probably be last hardware upgrade you're going to see.
dragonelite
Veteran
I hope this is a short gen its not something to get excited about when a lot of games struggle to get to 1080p..
Then you have a modular console like the Steam Machines that come out next year.
And AMD releasing a low level API and Nvidia will probably follow we will pc will sprint away even further.
Reason why i gamed on pc the last 2 years is i got kinda pissed at the low res while my screens went to 1080p and the games looked blurry.
Then you have a modular console like the Steam Machines that come out next year.
And AMD releasing a low level API and Nvidia will probably follow we will pc will sprint away even further.
Reason why i gamed on pc the last 2 years is i got kinda pissed at the low res while my screens went to 1080p and the games looked blurry.
I hope this is a short gen its not something to get excited about when a lot of games struggle to get to 1080p..
Then you have a modular console like the Steam Machines that come out next year.
And AMD releasing a low level API and Nvidia will probably follow we will pc will sprint away even further.
Reason why i gamed on pc the last 2 years is i got kinda pissed at the low res while my screens went to 1080p and the games looked blurry.
Neither is struggling to do 1080p they take optimisation to do 1080p @60fps just like pc would but again NO ONE IS GOING TO BE MAKING GAMES MUCH MORE DEMANDING THAN RIGHT NOW
I was under the impression that PS4 hardware basically just needs to bridge the gap until Gaikai takes off, i.e. fast internet connections become widespread enough to make any new home-console hardware revisions (generally) unnecessary.
SONY's next "console" hardware will probably just be a Vita-TV-ish Gaikai streaming device that's capable of 4K output. Which is to say: As soon as they get Gaikai going, they won't only be able to take care of backwards compatibility on PS4 by adding some of the more beloved PS3 games to their Gaikai catalogue, they will also be capable of "launching" a new "console" by building a few new server farms, running their games with "next-gen" specs on them and putting them behind a "PS5" Gaikai paywall that can be accessed/streamed through local PS4 hardware.
So, yeah. Don't be surprised if PS5 basically just ends up being a "virtual"/"software" console realized via Gaikai and centralized servers, accessible via PS4 or any other future Gaikai-enabled device.
In that case, PS4's lifespan will basically last until the machines take over.
As for XBOX One, I really think their current cloud-computing approach is very interesting, but also very limited in real-world gaming usability. So they either come up with some better hardware in 5-7 years, or implement straightforward, Gaikai-type game streaming.
All that being said, there'll, of course, always be a certain market for fast "offline" console hardware - but I really think that this market will shrink significantly during the next 5-10 years - probably to an extent where a statement like "we do have an offline console, it's called PS4" won't make any huge splash anymore and powerful local console hardware becomes a niche market taken care of by really fast (and expensive) "Steam Machines" that have shorter life cycles than iPhones
SONY's next "console" hardware will probably just be a Vita-TV-ish Gaikai streaming device that's capable of 4K output. Which is to say: As soon as they get Gaikai going, they won't only be able to take care of backwards compatibility on PS4 by adding some of the more beloved PS3 games to their Gaikai catalogue, they will also be capable of "launching" a new "console" by building a few new server farms, running their games with "next-gen" specs on them and putting them behind a "PS5" Gaikai paywall that can be accessed/streamed through local PS4 hardware.
So, yeah. Don't be surprised if PS5 basically just ends up being a "virtual"/"software" console realized via Gaikai and centralized servers, accessible via PS4 or any other future Gaikai-enabled device.
In that case, PS4's lifespan will basically last until the machines take over.
As for XBOX One, I really think their current cloud-computing approach is very interesting, but also very limited in real-world gaming usability. So they either come up with some better hardware in 5-7 years, or implement straightforward, Gaikai-type game streaming.
All that being said, there'll, of course, always be a certain market for fast "offline" console hardware - but I really think that this market will shrink significantly during the next 5-10 years - probably to an extent where a statement like "we do have an offline console, it's called PS4" won't make any huge splash anymore and powerful local console hardware becomes a niche market taken care of by really fast (and expensive) "Steam Machines" that have shorter life cycles than iPhones
Last edited by a moderator:
Similar threads
- Poll