MS: 1.5 million 360s sold as of Dec 31st 2005

[patsu]

Like? Given the fact they have a 2.5million goal to meet in Feb, and 4.5million goal in June. Tell me 1 good reason they would bother lying about their numbers in Jan?

They will already be passed these milestones before the PS3 is even launched, so fudging numbers right now would do absolutely nothing. This isn't a general question, it's a question in this specific context.

Scooby,

I'm not interested to know whether MS lied or not. To explain the discrepencies, I'm just saying that it's not so simple as shipped vs sales only.

Microsoft has to choose an accounting method to report their XB360 sales (in units and revenue). They have some room to define the formula, based on regulations and some voodoo combination of orders, shipping, returns, cancelled orders (especially based on track records). As long as their auditor is ok with the final number, and the CEO + CFO signed on the document, that accounting method will (should) be used uniformly to report results. As you would expect, a lenient method usually generate a higher number despite operational issues.

For market research purposes, companies like MediaCreate and NPD will have to find their own counting method to apply uniformly between different companies (e.g., Sony, MS, and Nintendo). They usually focus on "point-of-sales" data and have less operational information (e.g., backorders) to work on. It's only natural that the numbers differ.

As for your second question. Yes, I have seen large companies trying to present themselves in better light by managing the ambiguity. e.g., A company can pick a lenient revenue recognition method (report higher unit/revenue), when in reality its unsold inventory are still hidden in the channel, or not fulfilled yet. Is MS doing that ? I do not and am not interested to know.

 

[Mr. Hanky]

Sorry, they are just a company, I could care less about whether MS is pristine.

Evidently not. You need to calm yourself. No one is attacking you.

 

[Mr. Hanky]

...managing the ambiguity...

Ambiguity Management...Sounds like a cool term!

 

[Sethamin]

I don't even see why you would question the numbers at all. NPD's numbers are just an estimate. They say that themselves. They don't get data on every unit sold everywhere; they get some subset of the data and extrapolate. So if we have somebody saying that they estimate one number, and then the company themselves (who clearly would be in a position to know) says "No, this is the actual number", which one is more likely to be correct? What possible reason would there be to take the estimate over the actual number? Unless there's some other factor here that I'm missing, it doesn't make any sense to keep treating NPD's speculative estimates as fact.

 

[TrungGap]

Evidently not. You need to calm yourself. No one is attacking you.

Mr.Hanky, did you not meant to address this to scooby_dooby?

I guess that person should have worded the question more specifically. I'm sorry if this maligns your pristine perception of MS as a corporation. Your line of questioning seems to suggest that up to this point, you believe MS has not ever done anything at one time that caused someone to go, "Huh?" The answer is that they have done lots of "things", and those things do not simply cease to exist because you cannot conjure an explanation, given the data available to you.

People, let's stick to the argument. If the numbers are lies, what are the motives for these lies. The consequences of lying (in this case) is huge, it's not something any company in MS position would take.

There's no question that the numbers don't add up. Unfortunately, there are different account methods that give MS favorable results (which I'm sure they're using), however that's not the same as lying.

Have we consider the fact that MS have a lot of cross promotional events (Mt. Dew, etc?)? MS could be using those shippped unit as part of overall unit shipped.

 

[TrungGap]

I don't even see why you would question the numbers at all. NPD's numbers are just an estimate. They say that themselves. They don't get data on every unit sold everywhere; they get some subset of the data and extrapolate. So if we have somebody saying that they estimate one number, and then the company themselves (who clearly would be in a position to know) says "No, this is the actual number", which one is more likely to be correct? What possible reason would there be to take the estimate over the actual number? Unless there's some other factor here that I'm missing, it doesn't make any sense to keep treating NPD's speculative estimates as fact.

You have a point here. The MS's financial number is more likely to be more accurate than NPD's. If MS gets it wrong, it likes you and I miss reporting our incoming to the IRS. If NPD gets it wrong, what does it mean? Well, who knows...nobody is there to audit them right?

 

[patsu]

Actually the NPD and MediaCreate data are very valuable to companies like Microsoft too.
They just serve different purposes from MS's internal numbers.

For various reasons, the raw data they have can be used to estimate consumer demand better than MS's own numbers.

Can we talk about console games now ? :|

 

[Martin Eddy]

Could the 1.5 Million include prepaid preorders that are still yet to ship?

 

[superguy]

Are NPD's numbers that much different anyway? They counted 607k. Add in like 60 k for Canada, and you're near 700k. Then add in a bunch shipped but not yet sold at the end of December or something, and it's not hard to get to 900k. I expect these are shipped numbers as well, as all companies do.

I find it funny all the dire claims of huge MS supply problems, and in the end they shipped the same 1.5 mil in Nov-Dec as every other console launch I can recall..just as I expected. Albeit spread over three territories.

There seems to definitly be a lot of X360 resupply of chain stores like Best Buy coming in the last few days lately too from what I'm reading across the web. Some were even predicting the fabled ability to just walk into a store and buy one off the shelf in not too long if this keeps up..

 

[superguy]

Geez, supply is still incredibly tight though:

http://bensbargains.net/xbox360/xbox360.php

http://xbox.clambert.org/

Pretty much nobody has stock online..even the ones claiming instock are like 899 bundles, and still sold out. Pretty amazing.

Ahh well, I guess as soon as they do become freely available, the next thing will be trolls with "SEE, NOBODY WANTS THE XBOX ANYMORE" It's inevitable.

 

[Draikin]

Canada + 3 last days of december not accounted in NPD + consoles in transit + all the consoles MS gave away + higher NPD error margin around launch (the method they use to guess wallmart sales is not as accurate when the only real factor is MS supply) = 0.9 million, why is it so hard to understand ? MS never really lied about these numbers.

Nintendo overshipped in 2002 and had 6 months without sales in 2003. Sony count shipped units as soon as the console leave the factory, that's why they always have a press release around september/october about the huge PS2 userbase and everyone is "holy shit, and the christmas season didn't even begin yet!" when in fact most of the christmas sales are already factored.

 

[function]

What is the probability of fan boy or "hater" accusing MS of lying? What is the likelihood, based on statistical analysis, of an internet user spotting a conspiracy by a big company based on practically no evidence?

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

Ugh, guys...

The "shipped vs. sales" argument doesn't really apply here, SINCE EVERY SINGLE XBOX 360 ON SALE IS SNATCHED UP IMMEDIATELY.

So, either all these retail chains have /hundreds of thousands/ of 360s just sitting around, MS is, um, "exaggerating" their sales numbers, unless NPD and Media Create were off by 50% or so!

I know which one is far, far more likely.

That said... this isn't really a big deal, but it is pretty blatant.

Edit: Reading back up a few posts, and seeing Nelg's post... maybe that is what they are doing. Anyone going to arse Sony about "shipped" numbers anymore? That is a pretty grey area though, Sony could claim 30 million PS2s after launch! Hey, someone probably wants them if they were available!!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Anyone going to arse Sony about "shipped" numbers anymore? That is a pretty grey area though, Sony could claim 30 million PS2s after launch! Hey, someone probably wants them if they were available!!

They couldn't claim that if they didn't have 30 million supply, nor retail chains asking for 30 million units worth. These numbers need to be based on some reality other than wishful thinking!

 

[superguy]

Serenity, the numbers are legit.

Like I said, you get 667k just between US and Canada by NPD. And somebody just said last three days weren't counted. You're only off 233k worst case scenario. Not counting last three days and shipped and possible NPD error and some rounding off. And shipping by the way, is not instant, so the whole "they sell immediatly" doesn't hold either. There's still 2-3 days transit time or more.

But that turns into "Ms overstated by 50%". OK.

Even SonyCowboy on GAF, a Sony ****** and a guy who knows sales numbers, said these numbers are legit and defended them.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Confirmed: 1.5 Million units SOLD(not shipped) by the end of the 1/4

GS: OK. So, you guys said that you shipped 1.5 million Xboxes so far?
BL: Sold. Sold.

Confirmed: They are on pace to make 2.5million by Feb, so they think they will miss their 90 projections by 250-500k units.

BL: So, if you split the difference between supply and demand--demand was always going to be big and supply was a little bit less than we thought. That's the way to think about it. We are slightly missing the quantity. We still think we'll actually sell over $1.5 billion over the entire Xbox world, $1.5 billion dollars, which is an enormous number for 90 days of a consumer product. But like we said, instead of seeing 2.75-3 million consoles, we believe the number will be 2.5 [million]. That is a little bit less than we thought. My gosh, we wish we'd had a few hundred thousand more.

So all this buzz about problems and really they underdelivered by 250k-500k units over 90 days. Big deal!

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6143414.html

 

[mckmas8808]

It's nice to get confirmation.