"Imagine if"s are mostly stupid fantasy. "Imagine if MS loss-lead Scorpio to get marketshare but replacing XB1S and selling it at $250!
Sony would be doomed."
A price cut for a console a year after launch is normal, so a reduction for 4Pro ahead of the holidays is reasonable, along with PS4 price adjustment. I think one of the interesting points with 4Pro is Sony didn't push it massively, which accounts somewhat for sales interest. MS making a big song-and-dance of Scorpio means they are generating interest. Strikes me as counter-business to then sell the product discounted. Basically, with all this marketing and market preparation, going ahead with a $400 SKU would be a very clear indication of wanting to sell
en masse like a next gen console, but I think that'd back-fire because it's not a next-gen console and I doubt consumers will be convinced otherwise. So it'd be a lot of expense for less return. I think the sensible business action to maximise profits is keep the price higher, sell to the XBox enthusiasts, and then consider price drops once that market is tapped out and you want to get more of the mainstream.
That's said, few machines released above well above $400 (
inflation adjusted) get anywhere. PS4 did well because it was priced below $400. XB1 didn't because it wasn't! Without Kinect weighing it down, $400 would be the natural position for a new XBox. So I can definitely see it being anywhere between $400 and $500 - hence no vote from me!
Gun to my head...I'll say 'shoot me now.'
Finger on a button about to release a deadly virus that'll wipe out all life on Earth including the cute, fluffy ones that don't deserve to die...I'll say '$400 entry level, no extras, pseudo upgrade SKU, $450+ fancy bundle, or maybe a $500 Elite SKU with Elite controller and Elite paint-job and a copy of Elite delivered by helicopter.' (Sorry, all life on Earth)