Microsoft Xbox One X Scorpio Price Prediction and Reaction

That may be a sku issue, from recall the S was for pre order as a ltd 2tb edition at a premium, then followed the cheaper SKU's. They could easily do the same for Scorpio to cash in on early adopters and offer something for collecting fans, similar to the day one edition they were so fond of at launch.

 

this is a point I've made before also, so I don't disagree.
it's at what price point can they grab the hardcore, early adopters at.

I think 4pro is less to do with price but about marketing, possibly availability, being able to demonstrate a big enough difference to justify buying it.

I wonder if 4pro cost more if it would actually sell less. Maybe not, as its not the price that's determining its sales as far as I can tell.

these are all things ms has opportunity to try and do better at imo

 

I don't think this is the case, or I've misunderstood what you are saying.

From a hardware console perspective, the early adopters and enthusiast gamers don't make up the majority of hardware console purchases.

However, while those enthusiast gamers make up a minority of any given console user base, they generally make up for it by buying a lot more software than your average consumer. So, I wouldn't disagree with an assertion that the majority of software sales come from a minority of console owners.

In that respect, consoles like the PS4-P and Project Scorpio are important even if they sell in lower volumes than the base console. It helps to retain the users that are the most likely to buy a high number of software titles generating high margin revenue.

Regards,
SB

 

Speaking as a non-PS consumer, I don't think the PS4Pro is a good point of comparison to Scorpio. First, the PS4 was already the most powerful system so there was little need to upgrade to the PS4Pro for most users except for Second, I saw the messaging pretty clearly (despite Sony's attempts at marketing otherwise), that the PS4Pro was for the PSVR.

That means, in my opinion, the price of migration from PS4 to PS4Pro is really PS4PRO + PSVR. Sure, they are sold separately, but I'd wager most PS4Pro sales are going to people also buying PSVR. So PS4Pro owners are probably shelling out $800 or so, far in excess of what the Scorpio will sell at and I wouldn't take "slow" PS4Pro sales to be any indication of potential Scorpio sales.

https://www.vg247.com/2017/02/03/ps4-pro-sales-are-stronger-than-that-of-ps4-slim-says-sony-cfo/

 

The longer you wait, the less reason to get a Sc4Prio as the new machines will be closer to releasing. Unless you don't own a XB1PS4 or these consoles are dirt cheap.

 

psvr is a good reason to get 4pro, but not the only one.
due to either marketing or in ability to show a bigger difference (dependent on persons point of view I guess) maybe that's why it's not sold as well in its own right.

I think it's a good comparison, especially for ms to help them see what worked and what didn't.
hard to compare marketing though, as I've personally not seen any.

I don't see the Scorpio winning back the market share in the manner some present though.
I do think the Scorpio customer will be the most valuable one with how much they spend individually, also halo affect, and improving brand.
a lot of possible benefits beyond just basic market share.
can win/impact high end market share.

 

Right, in many ways that particular statement makes these mid-gen refreshes more focused on upgrading their existing user base, than acquiring new purchasers. But there also seems to be evidence that 4Pro is obtaining many new owners as well. If 4Pro and Scorpio take over the base model however... and all the titles are BC for next gen, there's not really any harm buying into the ecosystem late; you buy into the ecosystem at the cheapest price point possible and you don't lose your library when everyone moves to next gen. This was a bigger issue where there was a hard cut, but I don't see that as being a big of a problem now.

 

True. You've kinda convinced me $449.

A lot depends on their goals. Are they trying to sell a lot or price it as a premium profit maker?

I suspect Spencer wants to sell a lot of them and make a splash actually. Certainly they are hyping it a lot, wouldn't you agree? Like a mainstream console attempt. I've noted before how relatively quiet Sony was with the Pro vs how MS is treating the Scorpio.

Gun to my head I would guess one Scorpio SKU will hit 399.

Plus we have a lot of people predicting price cuts on PS4 Pro. So if Pro drops to 349, then the extra BOM in Scorpio is accounted for if it's $399.

I heard on a podcast the host actually said something to the effect of imagine if Sony drops the Pro price, then it would be like boom 249 pro vs $500 Scorpio! That's crazy. I guess too be fair to him, podcasters dont typically have any real tech knowledge, and they just hear big tech numbers for Scorpio tossed around so they assume it must be really really expensive.

 

"Imagine if"s are mostly stupid fantasy. "Imagine if MS loss-lead Scorpio to get marketshare but replacing XB1S and selling it at $250! Sony would be doomed."

A price cut for a console a year after launch is normal, so a reduction for 4Pro ahead of the holidays is reasonable, along with PS4 price adjustment. I think one of the interesting points with 4Pro is Sony didn't push it massively, which accounts somewhat for sales interest. MS making a big song-and-dance of Scorpio means they are generating interest. Strikes me as counter-business to then sell the product discounted. Basically, with all this marketing and market preparation, going ahead with a $400 SKU would be a very clear indication of wanting to sell en masse like a next gen console, but I think that'd back-fire because it's not a next-gen console and I doubt consumers will be convinced otherwise. So it'd be a lot of expense for less return. I think the sensible business action to maximise profits is keep the price higher, sell to the XBox enthusiasts, and then consider price drops once that market is tapped out and you want to get more of the mainstream.

That's said, few machines released above well above $400 (inflation adjusted) get anywhere. PS4 did well because it was priced below $400. XB1 didn't because it wasn't! Without Kinect weighing it down, $400 would be the natural position for a new XBox. So I can definitely see it being anywhere between $400 and $500 - hence no vote from me!

Gun to my head...I'll say 'shoot me now.'
Finger on a button about to release a deadly virus that'll wipe out all life on Earth including the cute, fluffy ones that don't deserve to die...I'll say '$400 entry level, no extras, pseudo upgrade SKU, $450+ fancy bundle, or maybe a $500 Elite SKU with Elite controller and Elite paint-job and a copy of Elite delivered by helicopter.' (Sorry, all life on Earth)

 

This was my thinking. With ScPro we have 'upgraded this gen' consoles - as such there's no real reason to buy other than if you must have the best version of games (ie small market).

I always said if the Scorpio does well there's nothing stopping Sony starting to make noise about about 'true next gen PS5 coming soon' which would potentially stem any tide of people buying Scorpio for this reason. I realise MS are moving away from generations, it remains to be seen if console gamers appreciate this format, because from my own PoV I like generational consoles, for me it means "new and exciting things coming" (regardless of if that actually happens!).

 

there are issues in releasing consoles. If they stick with AMD I think it's clear to me that to get a significant difference over PS4 at 4K resolution, 3 years may not be enough time. And that is us talking strictly power here, other factors like graphical features is a different topic. Shoukd Polaris be their last attempt at improving performance/watt architecture efficiency (for the foreseeable roadmap) and they continue to focus on memory and 7nm, and then next gen memory: I don't have significant confidence we will see much more than double TF performance of Scorpio. Of course I could be entirely wrong, but this is just me thinking out loud and looking at their roadmap and is why I feel this generation is going to last longer than most people think.

Phil clarified his stance on generationless: it really just means supporting games as a long term service and the release of a new console won't kill those games. So to cater to games like destiny, division, etc games that want to release once and continue forward with expansion/DLC models only.

This reads to me as:
The idea of hard generation will still be there I think. The next generation of console will allow for BC. But your library will continue forward and your progress within that library won't be lost if you upgrade to next gen. Developers would be free to continue support Xbox one after next gen is released, and developers would be free to make their games exclusive to next gen as well.

More or less I think Sony will take this stance. But they may be more vested in pushing their population along to the newer platform than having longer term support for the older one.

Should this be true, the price points of these consoles this generation makes it all the more interesting.

Should this generation stretch out and ScPro are the baseline models for the living room. That could migrate the OG models into a more mobile compact space. A lot to think about. Unfortunately not a price discussion about Scorpio.

Gun to my head; 399. I think MS may be willing to subsidize slightly to make this work for them if the long term roadmap is what I think it is.

 

So many guns to people's heads.

 

I'm not sure who started it. I just had to follow it. LOL

 

I was thinking what if MS' strategy is to get the S to be really really cheap... $199 with deals this holiday while keeping Scorpio $450-500? They want to sell as many Ones as they can so it's important for S to sell. S users can later on 'upgrade' to scorpio when it's then the bottom-end sku? The only way for them to expand the user base in a meaningful way is with the S at this point.

 

the price has allegedly been leaked and it is around 399€, yes.

https://www.onmsft.com/news/xbox-ne...eaked-xbox-game-pass-close-to-launch-and-more

Possible Project Scorpio price leaked by retailer
Spanish retailer Xtralife.es may have leaked the price of Project Scorpio – and it’s a whole lot lower than expected. Microsoft has been telling us that Scorpio is “Premium console” – something that’s going to be pumped full of strong hardware to give gamers the absolute best performance – and we were expecting some serious pricing to reflect that kind of power. The projected price tag give to us by the leak was just about $420 USD, which is actually pretty reasonable compared to the average launch price of a console. We’ll see if this number holds up.

 

^ I think that site pulled the price after the 'leak'?

 

i believe price leaks like this as much as if it said 250, 500, 700. basically i don't.

curious, is there any reason ms would tell retailers the price so early?
why can't they find out same time at e3?
they should still have plenty of time prior to release to decide how many they want, or even will be sent from ms, and time enough to prepare marketing etc.
considering what ms has had to deal with in regards to leaks, i don't see why they would tell anyone, it's not like pre onslaught of the internet days, when lead times etc was lot longer

 

it could be as easy as the database has price as a required field for it to go into the system. So people can really put whatever they want.

 

placeholders I think? I've been searching the site and it looks like they removed the page or something.

the leak comes from there, in every news I've read on the subject

 

i wouldn't be surprised to hear it is a place holder price.

I'm just curious why ms would need to tell retailers so soon anyway.
If they have no reason, then there's definitely no reason to believe any price 'leaks' prior to e3. Which i don't personally anyway