Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo's Price drop discussion

[RancidLunchmeat]

As we're talking about Elites and buying new units and such, I thought I might just threadjack rather than starting a new one.

When do people expect MS to announce their next price drop? Clearly, it will be after the Holidays at this point, but will it be first QTR next year?

Most merchants have a 30 day return or price matching policy, so it couldn't happen in January, or else all those holiday consoles that were purchased would be returned and MS would have to eat the price drop.

But do people expect or forecast a price drop in Feb? Or are we looking towards April or May?

I think a lot of informed consumers are surprised that MS kept the launch price on the 360 for so long and then were surprised again at the small price reduction that was announced for the Holiday.

There's also some question as to the 360's 2008 lineup and one way to counter a possibly slowed release schedule (2007's lineup was just incredible for the 360, btw), is to drop the price.

I think we all know that MS will announce price cuts across the board in 2008, the only question is when.

Right now, I'm think that we'll see two price drops in 2008 for the 360 lineup. One before the holiday season (a year from now), so the question is when does the first one happen?

Mid-year or early-year?

 

[AlphaWolf]

There's also some question as to the 360's 2008 lineup and one way to counter a possibly slowed release schedule (2007's lineup was just incredible for the 360, btw), is to drop the price.

Why is there any question to the 360's 2008 lineup? They should be advertising stuff coming out next year when they have one of the most incredible lineups ever for a 3 month period? There's plenty of titles coming next year for the 360, many of them highly anticipated (no the marvel MMO wasn't one of them).

I think we all know that MS will announce price cuts across the board in 2008, the only question is when.

Right now, I'm think that we'll see two price drops in 2008 for the 360 lineup. One before the holiday season (a year from now), so the question is when does the first one happen?

Mid-year or early-year?

Why do they need to drop prices twice? No one would have predicted they would have went 20 months before the first drop, and no one would have predicted it would only be $50. Dropping prices twice in a 6 month or less period just winds up pissing people off who fell for the first drop.

They are certainly in a position where they can ride a while at $349, I doubt you'll see anything before march, but I doubt they'll wait until June, you might see them preempt MGS4 with something so early march might make some sense.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

For starters, let me say "ARRRRRRGH!" If you knew my posting history, you would know that while people have been questioning MS's 2008 lineup, I was one of the FIRST to declare how brilliant they were at E3 to focus entirely on what was going to be available THIS year and not to promote FUTURE games at this time, and I've said that I believe their 2008 lineup WILL be a strong one, they just haven't started to advertise it yet because they don't need to. They can focus on CURRENTLY available games while their competitors (PS3.. cough... cough..) have to focus once again on "just wait some more!"

Why is there any question to the 360's 2008 lineup? They should be advertising stuff coming out next year when they have one of the most incredible lineups ever for a 3 month period? There's plenty of titles coming next year for the 360, many of them highly anticipated (no the marvel MMO wasn't one of them).

But the CURRENT mainstream thinking is that the 360 has the best lineup NOW while the PS3 is (once again) promising great things for the future. Sure, the 360 will start to advertise future games after the holiday season, but they will be behind the curve on that, because the PS3 has been advertising their 2008 lineup for the past two years.

Why do they need to drop prices twice? No one would have predicted they would have went 20 months before the first drop, and no one would have predicted it would only be $50. Dropping prices twice in a 6 month or less period just winds up pissing people off who fell for the first drop.

The first part, I believe I addressed in my original post. The fact that they delayed the first price drop for so long has lead many the informed consumer to believe that the price has been artificially inflated.

Common assumption would have been that they'd have dropped the price more than they did ALREADY at this point. They didn't, for various reasons. That doesn't mean that they don't recognize the need to "catch up" at some point and if they were going to "catch up" that would take place this year.

I also didn't say that they'd drop the price twice in a 6 month period. They could drop the price another $50 in Feb or Mar, and then drop the price another $50 in late Oct or early Nov.

They are certainly in a position where they can ride a while at $349, I doubt you'll see anything before march, but I doubt they'll wait until June, you might see them preempt MGS4 with something so early march might make some sense.

Ok, so let's take your final answer to my question, that they will drop the price in March.

How much do you think they'd drop the price in March and would they ride that price point all the way through the 2008 holiday season? How much of a price drop do you think they'd have to make in March in order to ride that price point all the way through the entire rest of the year and through the holidays?

They've only dropped the price point once, and only for $50 and most believe that was late in coming.

Do you believe they're going to drop it only once at $50 in March of 2008? Or do you believe they'll drop it one at $100 in March and ride that through the entire rest of the year?

I'm more inclined to believe, based upon past history, to believe that that MS would drop the price $50 in March and then drop the price another $50 in late Oct or Nov.

That's my question, and I'm sorry if there was any confusion in it.

 

[iceberg187]

When do people expect MS to announce their next price drop? Clearly, it will be after the Holidays at this point, but will it be first QTR next year?

Official Box art, btw

 

[Turok]

If there's another price drop coming up, I don't expect it to hit until late 2008, especially considering the 279 dollar Arcade 360.

 

[joker454]

Official Box art, btw

I'd be surprised if there wasn't a price drop to coincide with GTA's release. In fact, I'd say there will be a $199 core unit to coincide with it. That way for the magic $200 mark you can now play one of the more anticipated games of the year.

 

[Crossbar]

I'd be surprised if there wasn't a price drop to coincide with GTA's release. In fact, I'd say there will be a $199 core unit to coincide with it. That way for the magic $200 mark you can now play one of the more anticipated games of the year.

Some people have raised doubts that GTAIV will work on a HDD less console, still this is a rumour, but some rumours have turned out true before, we´ll see about this one.

Maybe it will work, but you´ll just get a somewhat more choppy experience.

 

[22psi]

360 will drop in price when the next PS3 price drop happens.

Wii will likely drop price end of 08.

At the end of 08, I'd expect the prices to be:
360: 199 core, 299 prem, 349 elite

PS3: 299 low end, 399 high end

Wii: 199

 

[SugarCoat]

360 will drop in price when the next PS3 price drop happens.

Wii will likely drop price end of 08.

At the end of 08, I'd expect the prices to be:
360: 199 core, 299 prem, 349 elite

PS3: 299 low end, 399 high end

Wii: 199

I agree with this theory of a 360 price drop being a reaction to the competition as well. MS seems to be very cocky about its placement and apparently is in no rush to push their consoles into the sweet spot (Sub $200) anytime soon as far as i can tell. Why that is or for what reason, i have no idea. Greed and smug are the only two words that come to mind at the moment

If the PS3 40gb drops to 350 i suspect that will be the push that will cause the 360 Premium to hit 299 with the core at 199 and the Elite at around 375. Until that happens i dont see them doing squat. I dont agree that Nintendo will only drop the price to 199 either. I simply cant see their demand continuing in the way it has past this holiday season. As such i expect them to actually have the Wii at 149 for the end of 08 and i'd also suspect they'd release a few gadgets and addons for it around the same time as well to try to resurge profit on their current/not too distant future user base.

If all goes as planned we should see sales really sky rocket for at least MS and Nintendo during this time next year or at the latest mid-late 09. Sony will follow sometime after.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Ok... So somebody decided that this was worthy of its own thread, so .... Ok.

When is GTA expected to be released?

It was supposed to be released this Holiday season.

So now we've got people saying that they predict a price drop before or when GTA releases.

Well... WHEN IS THAT?

And the second question is HOW MUCH?

And if it's early 2008 to coincide with the GTA release, do they expect ANOTHER price drop before the 2008 Holiday season?

Those are the questions.

Again, I expect that the 360 will drop the price PRIOR to the 2008 holiday season and will drop the price AGAIN when the 2008 holiday season approaches.

Who agrees, disagrees, why and how much, etc...

That was the purpose for my question which has now apparently warranted a separate thread.

Oh, it's also very relevant to the discussion to project Wii and PS3 price drops during that same period.

 

[seebs]

I would expect the Wii to price drop once they've got products reliably in stores and sales are slowing down; that would let them keep sales up so they don't have to ramp down production just to ramp it up again fifteen minutes later.

I'd been thinking next spring; possibly as late as mid-May, to come after Golden Week in Japan.

I have no idea what the 360 and PS3 will do; I guess it depends on how their sales are doing, and how their cost reduction is going.

 

[iceberg187]

I agree with this theory of a 360 price drop being a reaction to the competition as well. MS seems to be very cocky about its placement and apparently is in no rush to push their consoles into the sweet spot (Sub $200) anytime soon as far as i can tell. Why that is or for what reason, i have no idea. Greed and smug are the only two words that come to mind at the moment

Value and to use the price drops and momentum builders against Sony.

Hardware sales aren't really spectacular for the 360, but they are a lot better than waht the PS3 is doing. I work in marketing and how you positing your product a lot of influence on what the world perceives your product as. Take this for example. This is how I feel about price cuts, for the most part

http://www.killianadvertising.com/wp3.html

For an established brand, discounting can have an adverse affect on value.
Quality and price do not exist as isolated concepts in consumers’ minds. They are interrelated. Research has shown that deep discounts do cause the consumer to believe that something is wrong. Frequent discounting serves to lower the value of the brand because of an almost subconscious reaction by the consumer who believes that quality also has been lowered (remember shirts with alligators on them?) Or, in a “value rebound,” consumers begin to perceive the everyday price as too high. The brand is then bought only on deal.

 

[Rangers]

Sadly, I wouldn't count on 360 price drop before Fall 08. I mean, you dont sell a ton of consoles in spring and summer. The way MS has been playing super cautious.

I expect you wont see one until Xenos goes 65nm, supposedly in spring according to Takahashi, at the earliest.

 

[Limanima]

Hardware sales aren't really spectacular for the 360, but they are a lot better than waht the PS3 is doing.
http://www.killianadvertising.com/wp3.html

Hum... where did you get this info from?
The world is not America, there are other countries you know? Besides the gap is getting smaller and smaller in America, and bigger and bigger in Japan and Europe.
The last week, both consoles sold the same worldwide.

 

[assen]

I expect you wont see one until Xenos goes 65nm, supposedly in spring according to Takahashi, at the earliest.

The August drop came just before the Falcon hit; no reason to expect the next drop will coincide with the process shrink.

I subscribe to the "Core^H^H^H^HArcade $199 one month before GTA IV" theory; problem is, I don't believe GTA IV will arrive in spring. And given how FFXIII is almost certainly arriving in 2009 in the West, and how much Sony is banking on MGS4, I would guess MS have something up their sleeve to counter its launch.

 

[Limanima]

Which gap are you referring to and how is it getting smaller?

The way the guy was talking, made it sound like the PS3 is selling poorly compared with the XBox, like 10 to 1 worlwide.
In the last week in the US was less then 2 - 1, with the PS3 getting near by the week to the XBox sale numbers (in the US that is, in Europe and Japan, the PS3 is already outselling the XBox).

Worldwide the machines are selling almost the same number of units, proven by the overall sales. 13 mil to the xbox and 6 mil to the ps3, with a litlle less then 2 to 1. Which is normal, considering the fact the PS3 is on sale in Europe only since March this year.
But enough of off-topic posts.

On-topic:
I don't think MS will drop the price. It will only drop the price depending on Sony actions, or if the market starts to pend to Sony's side.

 

[assen]

In the last week in the US was less then 2 - 1, with the PS3 getting near by the week to the XBox sale numbers.

The PS3 is in the afterglow of a recent price cut, and the Xbox 360 was supply limited on Black Friday - there were many reports of Elites and Pros missing entirely from shelves. Don't read too much in last week's numbers.

 

[Limanima]

The PS3 is in the afterglow of a recent price cut, and the Xbox 360 was supply limited on Black Friday - there were many reports of Elites and Pros missing entirely from shelves. Don't read too much in last week's numbers.

Wouldn't you say that the XBox is in the afterglow of Halo 3 release?
What really matters are the overall sales numbers. ANd those are 13.5 mil against 6.1 mil.

I think both consoles are very similar, and I think that there will be no winner. This market will be 50/50, with a 5 mil advantage for MS.
By the end of this cyle, the numbers will be 50.000 mil MS and 45 mil Sony. A tie...

I repeat: the world is not only the US.

 

[fearsomepirate]

Which gap are you referring to and how is it getting smaller?

Some people confuse a rate differential with a quantity differential because they're clueless about math.

 

[Limanima]

Some people confuse a rate differential with a quantity differential because they're clueless about math.

Was this post directed at me?