Michael Pachter on Feb NPD/overall market conditions
- Thread starter superguy
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scooby_dooby
Legend
Legend said:
4.5-5.5
Legend said:
I'm sure they'll make. Historically I've always seen them make their Xbox ship targets and usually on the high side.
By March 31: If Feb NPD comes in the low side at 200k, they've got 1.2 USA (according to NPD).
+ my estimate of 55% of that=EU sales (based on previous statements of what ratio MS ships to EU). So 660k=EU.
120-140k in Japan I think. lets call it Japan=130k.
Canada I have no idea. All I remember is supposedly 30k in November I think. I'm going conservative so I'll guess 20k each month, 100k=Canada.
That puts you at 2.09 for those.
Then you've got the rest of the territories whatever that is. We know it sold 30k at Austrailian launch I think. Let us allot another 100k=rest of world including Austrailia.
Total=2.19m=~2.2 million as of March 31? Sold through not shipped. Just a guess but based on pretty darn conservative estimates in my opinion.
Then there is three months left for NPD til June 31. April May Jun. Just USA and EU..if they only do 200k USA each month, using the same 55% EU ratio, that would be another 930k. + the "rest of World". Canada, Austrailia, Japan, Korea, whatever. Just taking the US and EU =930K figures added to the 2.2 =3.13. 3 months in the "rest of the world", I have no idea what to add. 150k? Guesstimate = 3.28~3.3m. Sold through not shipped.
Thar's pretty far short but again you can some to reach shipped numbers. But moreso my estimates for April-May-June USA NPD are terribly conservative. I think you could easily see those average 300k or much more. So then my EU numbers get adjusted. So my USA+EU numbers go up near 500K. Then you're at 3.8 million sold through. Then you get 4.5 shipped in sight.
Oh and also I think my projected EU sales, based on simply multiplying USA NPD by .55, could be on the low side? But I'm really not sure.
But one thing is MS shipped numbers have not jibed with NPD sales numbers. NPD said 607k USA Nov-DEC, MS claimed 900k shipped to "North America" in that same time. Although you do have to add some to NPD for Canada I guess.
Anyway, I have no doubt MS is going to claim at least 4.5 million shipped by June 31, and probably 5.0+ million. Other than that I just wanted to play with numbers. If anybody can correct any of my sales data with better estimates or better data about unfamiliar territories (like Austrailian or pacific rim sales) please do.
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ah, it just occurred to me; MS doesn't actually need to sell 4.5 mil. units to meet the target. it would be enough if they only shipped those figures.
by that, it becomes a question of them being able to manufacture and release that much or not. in that case, it is a good chance that they can make that much by the end of June. I was thinking about sales numbers. ;p
by that, it becomes a question of them being able to manufacture and release that much or not. in that case, it is a good chance that they can make that much by the end of June. I was thinking about sales numbers. ;p
I always understood the target was sold units (http://www.gamespot.com/pages/news/story.php?sid=6146150&page=14), which is why Japan was something of a problem. Hopes of selling a sizeable number there didn't come to anything at launch. I think realistically they'll be aiming for something like 3 million in NA, 1.5 million in EU, with other nations contributing all of 10% perhaps.
And I just remember, didn't Peter Moore say shipping by boat took 4 weeks? Then depending on location it could take up to 6-8 weeks to reach the store?
So they could have another 1-2 months in the channel at any given time. Which could be another .5 to 1.0 million units.
So yeah, if they only have to sell through 3.5, and I calculated very conservatively they've got 2.2 million on 3/31,..they only need 1.3 in 3 months. Barely over 400k a month worldwide. Considering their current "bad" NPD's are still seeing 200-250k in USA alone..and those could go up a lot in the next three months..yeah should be pretty easy.
Afaik targets are always "shipped" to these corporations. Microsoft and Sony alike. They consider shipped to eqaul "sold" since they are paid for.
To Microsoft they are "sold" once shipped..the retailers paid MS for them already.
So they could have another 1-2 months in the channel at any given time. Which could be another .5 to 1.0 million units.
So yeah, if they only have to sell through 3.5, and I calculated very conservatively they've got 2.2 million on 3/31,..they only need 1.3 in 3 months. Barely over 400k a month worldwide. Considering their current "bad" NPD's are still seeing 200-250k in USA alone..and those could go up a lot in the next three months..yeah should be pretty easy.
Afaik targets are always "shipped" to these corporations. Microsoft and Sony alike. They consider shipped to eqaul "sold" since they are paid for.
To Microsoft they are "sold" once shipped..the retailers paid MS for them already.
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scooby_dooby
Legend
superguy said:
Their new factory is in canada which should making shipping nearly a non-issue, they said they're increasing the US supply by 2-3x, so if they sold ~200k in previous months, we should be looking for 400-600k/month in the US.
Yes, the collector's edition from superguy's list.
scooby_dooby
Legend
It looks like the 360 version of oblivion far outsold the PC version. Very interesting considering some of the discussion we've been having with respect to PC gaming and it's true marketshare.
What are the PC sales figures for Oblivion?
