Market acceptance of PS3 pricepoint article

You truly believe that the people buying a PS2 for $129 now are the same ones that Sony expects to buy PS3 during the latter's first 3 years?

 

Of course not. I was just making a nonsense conclusion based from an obscure statistic, just like the previous 2 posters did.


If I was going to try to draw some sort of serious conclusion based off of these numbers, I would do this:

May 2003
PS2 = 288,127

May 2004
PS2 = 253,454

May 2005
PS2 = 273,000

May 2006
PS2 = 232,000
Xbox 360 = 221,000

If I was going to draw any conclusions from that, I would suggest that it looks like the 360 is only slightly behind the normal rate of PS2 sales over the past 4 years.

And unless there is a huge increase in the number of console buyers, this would suggest that the 360 will be making a huge cut into Sony's marketshare in the PS3/360/Wii generation. Enough of one that if the Wii also gains marketshare for Nintendo next generation then the generation will end with the 360 in 1st spot and a close tie between the PS3 and Wii for #2.



But even that is a conclusion based on flimsy evidence, and a lot of conjecture.

 

Or of course you could do this and compare the sales of the consoles in the May after their respective launches:

May 2002

PS2 : 523,868 Xbox : 228,914

May 2006

Xbox360: 221,000

and draw much better and entertaining conclusions

EDIT: Here is the source that I think we used : PC vs Console thread

It should also be noted that since these are numbers for the US, the sales are probably skewed in favour of Xbox already

 

Without knowing how many 360s were available during May its fairly pointless. If MS sold every 360 that was manufactured globally then you really cant draw much from these numbers...

 

500 to 600 dollars is a lot of money.
But in several regions outside the US, Japan and at times the UK have payed quite a big buck for new hardware.
In some regions the PS2 with PS1 BC, powercord, multi AV cord, 1 wired controller, demo CD and seperate mem card cost almost 500 dollars.
No ethernet lan port, no HDD, no wireless controllers.
With a PS3 you get BD, HDD, PS1 + PS2 BC, ethernet port, wireless controllers. In the more costly SKU you get HDMI, mem card readers, WIFI and whatelse?.
So i don´t think that in the long run the price point won't be such a shock when it sink in what the costumer gets.
Besides, if a costomer buy a good HDTV for 1000 dollars, that costomer most likely wants the high end solution and not go mid end on the actual media player.
Why spend quite a bundle of cash on a grand TV and then be cheap on the actual player?.
So PS3 is looking quite attractive as a high end solution, and high end always cost quite some money.
Someone that has an old TV, let say 13 years or so, do not know how long the TV will last and might be thinking about getting a new one, and then might get a HDTV with HDMI and then the PS3 looks even better.
Only time will tell how the prize point will work out, but it is not looking as gloomy as some might portray in media reports and market analysis etc.

 

That's the whole point

On the other hand, you could say that what I provided does give another view of things

 

so its revenue that counts?
so since the ps3 is more expensive than the 360 it can still sell 20%less than the 360 but still achieve a higher figure. ie just stick to numbers

ms seem to be making exactly the same mistake as they did with the xbox1 (very few good exclusives)
eg take the 5 xb360 titles on that list
5 - Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter (Xbox 360)
6 - Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion (Xbox 360)
13 - Fight Night Round 3 (Xbox 360)
17 - Battlefield 2: Modern Combat (Xbox 360)
20 - Major League Baseball 2K6 (Xbox 360)

none are 360 exclusive, 3 are for the pc + the other 2 appear also on the ps2,
contrast that with the ps2 look at all the exclusive titles on the list

ms need to get more good exclusive games for the 360, give the punters a reason to buy a xb360. if i was ms ild give rock* $100million to make gta4 xb360 exclusive. its the biggest franchise in the world by far + would give many users a valid reason to buy the xb360

 

Sort of.

You sometimes see software charts ranked by revenue, sometimes by units. Both are flawed imo. The problem with ranking by units is a $20 greatest hits or $35 DS game counts the same as a $60 360 game. I dont find that fair.

Revenue ranking aren't really fair either, because obviously they dont give the whole picture. That's why I say they're both flawed..

But whatever, having ten of the top twenty by revenue is good too. It's not going to change that much by units.

And of course revenue counts even less in hardware sales..but it still does count a little.

The shortages have been improving and are at least for now all but over. Just check a few major sites (Best Buy.com, Wal Mart.com) and every store I walk into has 360's lately. That's only in US where demand is highest. 360's have been in good supply in EU for much longer according to posters.

Shortages cannot be blamed much for 360 sales numbers anymore imo..

 

Hey you're right about that, I forgot about WebTv. Also, as far as backing capital go, Microsoft has something like 10x the cash flow, better profit margins, billions on hand, and no debts, which is something that Sony can't compete with. And Microsoft is sayign they'll stay in the race; I believe them, and this generation there is no reason they should pull out. If they were going to do that, xbox1 would have been done with 2 years in.

As far as Blu-Ray and the format wars being unimportant, well I see your point but I have to disagree on a caveat. Namely that Blu-Ray is costing Sony (as well as the consumer) a lot to implement in the PS3, and it is a component that will stay expensive through the life of the system (relatively, compared to DVD). And the format war is important. When PS2 was unveiled, people saw that they had an easy access to a decent DVD player through the system, which was important because DVD was the only next-gen movie standard. That is not the case with PS3. While positioning the PS3 to be able to play Blu-Ray movies is nice, it is not as big a deal because of HD-DVD. Though point noted.

 

I am not to worried about the 360s sales figures this time of year. Lots of people are out and about enjoying the outdoors and going to events ect. If sales are slow this fall in the US then I will be worried about the 360.

 

Actually, that isn't the worst case scenario. You are making the assumption that Sony is going to sell 30 million players. The real worst case scenario for Sony is this:

A. Blue Ray loses the format wars vs HDDVD
B. The inclusion of Blue Ray in PS3 significantly drives up costs to the point that people arent willing to pay that $500-600 price tag for PS3, and they DON'T sell 30 million units.

In such a scenario, which seems entirely possible given current reactions to the price tag, Sony loses on both, and they stand to lose in a significant way financially if that happens. I'm not saying it will, by any means, but it could happen.

 

I agree, during summer there is not much that can be said for the future of the console, especially when it is still on the expensive side and people most likely will put money on other things during this time of the year. And another thing is that I don't think that any big impact games will be comming any time soon, lets wait and see what happens when big hiters lile GoW come along...

 

When was the PS2 price drop?

Also, looking at the first May for PS2 here in the states, I see 283,000, but more interesting is that it was a drop from the previous month of April sales of 327,000.

But in all honesty, any time I dig into these numbers I usually just walk away thinking, "People love their PS2s." I mean, seriously, 2 million units sold in December of 01?

EDIT: Answer to the price drop for the PS2? May 14th, 2002. $199, down from $299.

 

Greatest Hits are cheaper because they have sold lots of units from the beginning. Which means they are games people want to buy a lot.

Revenues is far more misinforming than units

 

Yep, and previous months sales were 195k so the pricedrop caused a huge surge in sales. Cherry picked #'s at their finest.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=105508

 

Of course ignoring the consequences and reasoning leading up to me picking that month as usual

In addition, we can make a comparison between the April months as well for the consoles. Overall I think we know what the results are anyway.

EDIT: as well, the neogaf numbers seem to be off from the other NPD numbers. PS2 is reported as 204,863 in April from the PC vs Console thread.

 

In games.

Console sales are by unit. Games are done by revenue.

GRAW PC is a bit different and the 360 version has more MP content and Coop. It also had a decent leadtime of exclusivity. The console version has also sold substantially better. Ditto Elder Scrolls. It may be on another MS-platform, but the requirements to play it on the PC make the market fairly small. The 360 version is selling much better than the PC version. FNR3 on the 360 is a next gen title graphically, comparing it to the PS2 version and calling it a port. etc. and so forth.

They do have a number of exclusives. We are in month 7 and on the 360 you see the following MS exclusives: Kameo, Perfect Dark, Dead or Alive 4, PGR3, Next Gen Madden, MotoGP, Far Cry Insticts Predator, Quake 4, Rockstar's Table Tennis, Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion, Condemned, etc. They also have had timed exclusives on GRAW, FNR3. That is quite a few titles you will only be playing on a MS platform.

Almost all of those were released within 6 months of the launch. And taking it a step further, looking to this Summer and Fall, MS has a number of exclusives lined up. Gears of War, Forza 2, Viva Pinata, etc and all the PC cross platforming they have (BFME2, Prey, Fear, etc). And then there are all the new IPs MS has invested in (Mass Effect, Too Human, Crackdown, Blue Dragon, etc). And then there are MS's 2007 lineup which will have Bioshock, Halo 3, possibly Fable 2, etc

It is all dependant on taste, but MS does not appear to be lacking a lot of exclusive content.

Or why don't they just remove Sony's exclusive time release and be the only console to get the 2 biggest titles in the industry, Halo and GTA, on day 1? In many ways the NA market, last gen, was GTA, Football, FPS, Racing and then everything else. MS seems to have all those bases covered. I would argue MS is in a very good position:

GTA4: Day 1.
Halo 3: Exclusive.
Madden 2007: On time in August before the season starts.
Racing: Forza 2, Force Feedback, PGR3 and a host of mid range racers.

OT: I think a topic overlooked on mainstream acceptance is bargin software. One of the things MS's early launch does is push last years Madden down in price. Having a back catalogue of solid games for cheap can spurn market adoption.

 

Ummm, May 2002 was the 2nd year the PS2 was out, not the first.

PS2 Japanese launch = March 2000
PS2 US launch = October 2000

In fact, even if you looked at May 2001 PS2 figures you would be looking at sales of a system that had been on shelves and in full production for more than a year.

 

Sounds more like the words of a Sony fan-boy to me, right down to the "if you don't want a PS3 don't buy one". Yes Greg, that's exactly what those people will do.. that doesn't preclude giving there opinion on PS3's expense though...

 

My mistake on the date, but its the earliest May record out there I think

I don't see the "shelf life" part as being much of a factor in the numbers we (meaninglessly ) quoted (with bias) when it was launched in Japan for over a year, since the sales numbers were US numbers. As for production, that seems to be hardly affecting anything for X360 as someone pointed out that shortages were already not an issue as of a couple months ago.