Kinect-less XB1 fallout thread *spawn

[eastmen]

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-05-13-xbox-one-to-overtake-ps4-in-us-by-2015-says-analyst

Why would Kinect demand go up ?

Last generation we saw with the lack of decent Kinect software the demand went down , the Kinect right now basicly has no support and with fewer of them sold there will be even less support in the future.

The Kinect is dead unless it gets repacked in next year at $300 with the system.

 

[blakjedi]

Both of these cases are considerations for an XBOX One only title.



Because the logic is that the price delta right now is putting more people off and going to the competition, in the long run retarding the install base of both XBOX One and Kinect. Buy removing the price consideration now they stand to pick up additional Kinect peripheral sales down the line to some of the customers that would otherwise have gone to the competition.

I just read the ARS article and Phil basically says just this.

Phil is delusional. The people who said they would buy an x1 "if it didn't have Kinect" still won't buy one. The ones who said "if it were cheaper" still won't buy one when you can get a higher specced device at the same price in PS4. I know I wouldn't. And what happens when Sony announces 379 or 349 price point at e3???

MS' logic is BS. Its not the price per se... its the value proposition.

 

[HTupolev]

the one would have had a 24 hour off line mode.

Yes, and the 24-hour check-in is the DRM that we're referring to. Steam has no such requirement.

Xbox One used the game sharing plan (whatever it actually was) to justify always-online DRM. Steam doesn't have to justify always-online DRM because it has no always-online DRM.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Why would Kinect demand go up ?

Last generation we saw with the lack of decent Kinect software the demand went down , the Kinect right now basicly has no support and with fewer of them sold there will be even less support in the future.

The Kinect is dead unless it gets repacked in next year at $300 with the system.

At the moment, at the start of the cycle, the pricing its appealing to the hardcore gaming crowd, as the console cycle goes on the pricing will come down and that's when you start hitting a broader, mass market appeal and that's when broader entertainment appeal becomes important. However, if they fall too far behind now then they stand to lose the opportunity to hit critical mass through losing developer support.

 

[eastmen]

Yes, and the 24-hour check-in is the DRM that we're referring to. Steam has no such requirement.

Xbox One used the game sharing plan (whatever it actually was) to justify always-online DRM. Steam doesn't have to justify always-online DRM because it has no always-online DRM.

Steam has allways online enabled by default and will try and revert you back to signing in again if you choose off line mode, trust me , it bugs me on my surface all the time. Whats more , if you want to share your game , then you have to play it in online mode.

 

[eastmen]

At the moment, at the start of the cycle, the pricing its appealing to the hardcore gaming crowd, as the console cycle goes on the pricing will come down and that's when you start hitting a broader, mass market appeal and that's when broader entertainment appeal becomes important. However, if they fall too far behind now then they stand to lose the opportunity to hit critical mass through losing developer support.

but at the same time , Kinect wont hit a critical mass of must have games , as it is , it has Kinect sports.

So in the future with the casuals why will they want to play Kinect?

Whats more with the declining number of kinects in homes vs xbox ones without it , why would devs support Kinect if it hinders their sales.

It creates a loop that they wont get out of just like last generation

 

[MrFox]

Its really interesting what's happened. MS really can't catch a break even if some of their ideas are game changers.

I don't know, so far I only see iterative attempts of existing ideas, some work some don't, there were no game changers from Sony or MS or Nintendo this generation. A lot of new stuff each generation only appear because we finally have enough horsepower. It was in the work for a long time by everybody. Some just take the risk earlier.

- "you are the controller" was not a game changer. Look at the old PS2 eye toy commecials, it's hilariously the exact same promises from early 2000's.

- Voice command is being done a bit more this gen, but it's just because we have more power to spare.

- The CD in the PS1 was a real game changer. DVD wasn't, bluray wasn't, and the upcoming blurayXL won't be either. It's just progressive improvement.

- The Xbox centralized networking was a game changer. It was a much better implementation compared to other gaming networks, but now they no longer have an edge.

- Having windows (or BSD) is simply enabled by the amount of resources available compared to previous gen with limited storage/memory.

- Occulus/Morpheus/(unannounced MS product) could be game changers, or they could fail... time will tell.

 

[eastmen]

I don't know, so far I only see iterative attempts of existing ideas, some work some don't, there were no game changers from Sony or MS or Nintendo this generation. A lot of new stuff each generation only appear because we finally have enough horsepower. It was in the work for a long time by everybody. Some just take the risk earlier.

- "you are the controller" was not a game changer. Look at the old PS2 eye toy commecials, it's hilariously the exact same promises from early 2000's.

- Voice command is being done a bit more this gen, but it's just because we have more power to spare.

- The CD in the PS1 was a real game changer. DVD wasn't, bluray wasn't, and the upcoming blurayXL won't be either. It's just progressive improvement.

I had jaguar , sega cd , turbo graphics 16 cd formats before the ps1 , also the Saturn .

- The Xbox centralized networking was a game changer. It was a much better implementation compared to other gaming networks, but now they no longer have an edge.

- Having windows (or BSD) is simply enabled by the amount of resources available compared to previous gen with limited storage/memory.

- Occulus/Morpheus/(unannounced MS product) could be game changers, or they could fail... time will tell.

Kinect with VR could have been great , but once again its only going to make the vr more expensive unless they start selling Kinect for $60 like the sony camera.

MS has made a ton of poor choices and they all stem on listening to the internet backlash .

Sony was able to climb from their hole without back tracking on what the ps3 was supposed to be.

There is nothing left of the xbox one from their 2013 announcement expect perhaps for their tv mantra but of course their own tv solution doesn't work with it.

 

[XpiderMX]

harmonix is super thrilled

I doubt they will develop for Kinect anymore after this .

If Microsoft (or someone else) pay for it, they will.

 

[eastmen]

If Microsoft (or someone else) pay for it, they will.

maybe but I don't see the point. They already tried kickstarting a ps3/4 game

 

[MrFox]

Phil is delusional. The people who said they would buy an x1 "if it didn't have Kinect" still won't buy one. The ones who said "if it were cheaper" still won't buy one when you can get a higher specced device at the same price in PS4. I know I wouldn't. And what happens when Sony announces 379 or 349 price point at e3???

MS' logic is BS. Its not the price per se... its the value proposition.

They're between a rock and a hard place, but for some people the value proposition of a kinect-less sku is much better, because they don't want kinect. Many of these gamers will never buy a PS4 anyway so the power difference isn't that big of a deal, they have too many friends on xbox and want to stay there.

Considering Sony is breaking even on the PS4, it's a safe bet they won't cut the price. MS didn't want to start a price war (no huge loss per hardware) and I don't think Sony wants to start one.

 

[HTupolev]

Steam has allways online enabled by default and will try and revert you back to signing in again if you choose off line mode, trust me , it bugs me on my surface all the time.

The very fact that you're calling it "bugs" tells you everything you need to know about why your analogy doesn't work.

Steam's offline mode is buggy, but the program is not deliberately designed to brick itself whenever you're offline for 24 hours. This is clunky interface design, not always-online DRM; even if the result was the same, there's a massive difference in intent.

Whats more , if you want to share your game , then you have to play it in online mode.

So there's a bonus share feature that goes above and beyond what other platforms offer, that's only available in online mode.

Unfortunate, but bonuses that go above the perceived standard of game ownership aren't going to infuriate the internet.

 

[XpiderMX]

MS has made a ton of poor choices and they all stem on listening to the internet backlash .

I agree, but just take a look at the people on MS before E3 2013, now, most of them are not in Microsoft, Ballmer, Mattrick, etc. I guess they or some of them, were the guilty of current Xbox One design.

But Microsoft, the current people on the Xbox division, are trying to save the boat.

 

[ramr]

Phil is delusional. The people who said they would buy an x1 "if it didn't have Kinect" still won't buy one. The ones who said "if it were cheaper" still won't buy one when you can get a higher specced device at the same price in PS4. I know I wouldn't. And what happens when Sony announces 379 or 349 price point at e3???

MS' logic is BS. Its not the price per se... its the value proposition.

I think removing Kinect was a bad decision. They should have just dropped the price to 399 with Kinect. At $499 the xbox already had a significant value lead over the PS4, albeit one that wasn't appreciated by many. At $399 with Kinect, there would be no reason for anyone to buy a PS4 without a price drop. Snap and input 1 alone are worth more than the PS4.

 

[3dilettante]

Whats more , if you want to share your game , then you have to play it in online mode.

This is actually an area where a locked-down platform like a TPM-equipped console could have a theoretical advantage over an open system.

For digital copies, the source servers and encryption services could create console-specific copies, and internal tracking could make self-timing shared copies.
It's full installs from physical media that required a call home.

MS has made a ton of poor choices and they all stem on listening to the internet backlash .

It became far larger than that.
They lost control of the narrative in general media as well. There may have been some behind the scenes pushback as well, but if the grousing were just contained to internet forums Microsoft wouldn't have overturned an important element of the their multibillion dollar platform rollout so close to launch.

Maybe the phone-home thing could have complicated getting into China?

 

[ramr]

This is actually an area where a locked-down platform like a TPM-equipped console could have a theoretical advantage over an open system.

For digital copies, the source servers and encryption services could create console-specific copies, and internal tracking could make self-timing shared copies.
It's full installs from physical media that required a call home.


It became far larger than that.
They lost control of the narrative in general media as well. There may have been some behind the scenes pushback as well, but if the grousing were just contained to internet forums Microsoft wouldn't have overturned an important element of the their multibillion dollar platform rollout so close to launch.

Maybe the phone-home thing could have complicated getting into China?

They had superior business plan and a box designed to implement that plan. Unfortunately, catastrophically poor marketing and messaging doomed to uberbox.

 

[3dilettante]

They had superior business plan and a box designed to implement that plan. Unfortunately, catastrophically poor marketing and messaging doomed to uberbox.

The initial platform was heavily dependent on the rate of deployment of Microsoft's server centers and the implementation of the localized services.
This dependence forced them to scale back their launch markets.
It impacted the launch availability of Titanfall for South Africa.

Their business plan also envisaged heavy integration of Microsoft's other initiatives, like Skype.
Their system was always on and obligated to be connected to servers under American government jurisdiction.
Then Snowden happened.

The only functionality that technically needed the 24-hour total-console killswitch was disc sharing. The online requirement underpinned enough of the system's functionality that its removal heavily impacted the late-stage development of the platform.
The poorly defined game sharing functionality in the best case offended publishers that resent the idea that people could share at all.

The media-based and non-console functions outside of Microsoft depended on the good will or hefty payments to licensors like the NFL or the good graces of telecom/cable providers like Comcast (created its own voice media product "X1" by the way), and did so to the point of creating a very US-centric impression of a global product.

Kinect 2.0 is technically impressive, but it was an expensive gamble. Although massively improved, it was at the early stages short of having full individual finger tracking, so it may have been a touch not good enough in the end if you think a Minority Report UI was in the offing.

It was ambitious, but it also involved Microsoft sticking its glass jaw out on multiple fronts.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

I agree, but just take a look at the people on MS before E3 2013, now, most of them are not in Microsoft, Ballmer, Mattrick, etc. I guess they or some of them, were the guilty of current Xbox One design.

But Microsoft, the current people on the Xbox division, are trying to save the boat.

Except there is no saving the boat.

Because this boat looks just like the other boat, costs just as much as the other boat, except the other boat actually performs better.

I mean, let's get real. Even most of the people applauding this move are still acknowledging that the console has no legs at all at $399 and needs to be reduced another $50 at least.

No, this isn't the "turning point" in the death of the One. This is the Final Act. The turning point was when somebody decided the vision for an "internet console" was unfeasible at this point at started making concessions in an attempt to reach a larger audience.

That larger audience could have been reached with more RAM, a faster CPU or a nice shiny GPU with the same or similar resources spent on HDMI-IN and Kinect2 and NFL Agreements, etc.

Instead they've killed what made it unique, what made it a consumer decision to purchase and they are left with - according to those in this thread - only historical customers who are willing to pay a premium for Live as their target user base.

How many 360 owners paid for Gold? That's the upper limit of their potential customer base. Of those, how many don't have a PS3 (or already bought a PS4) and rely so heavily on the Gold Live experience that they are willing to pay an equal price for a sub-par product and a monthly subscription fee? Clearly, that's a significantly small portion of the original subset of total 360 owners.

They've killed the One. Their only hope to avoid complete and total destruction is by undercutting the PS4 by at least $50 in 6 months.

This move isn't going to increase sales at all, not when there were bundles available just a few weeks ago at the same price point - and those included Kinect.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

The initial platform was heavily dependent on the rate of deployment of Microsoft's server centers and the implementation of the localized services.
This dependence forced them to scale back their launch markets.
It impacted the launch availability of Titanfall for South Africa.

Actually, this is the latest excuse I read from the Chucklehead now in charge of the Xbox and trying to explain that sales weren't the reason for the price cut.

Instead, the price cut is the natural result of the removal of Kinect which was due to the difficulties in voice localization and how those delays were impacting their ability to launch in other areas.

Which is interesting and all, but all I get out of it is that Kinect2 doesn't work. And that there aren't any games that can demonstrate its value in production (there's no pudding to demonstrate the proof), so they might as well make one situation better - global sales and hope that it makes up for the fact the console is nothing like the original vision or what was sold to the public at the reveal.

 

[dobwal]

Xb1 success lies solely with its library now. A strong exclusive group of must have games trumphs everything. Without that it's just a console with less performance than a ps4.