Japan goes, "Wiiiiiii!"

[Acert93]

68% of Japan goes Wii at least. IGN

Famitsu.com polled its readers from 5/15 to 5/18 on four key questions related to all the big E3 announcements. The site used 294 responses to come to the following figures.


Responding to the question of which hardware has their greatest interest, 68.8% said Wii. PS3 grabbed 21.0%, ahead of Xbox 360's 7.2% and the DS's 3.0%. All hardware, current generation and next, was included in the survey.

A bit more directly, Famitsu asked survey takers which hardware they expect to win the next generation race. The Wii won this vote at 73.0%, with PS3 coming in second at 22.6% and Xbox 360 getting 4.4%.

Survey takers were also questioned on the PS3's price. In Japan, the base model costs 62,790 yen, a ways up from the PS2's original launch price of 37,800 yen, and sure enough, 88.4% of responders felt that this was too high. Only 10.9% felt that it was a reasonable price, while 0.7% punks said that it was too low.

While Nintendo didn't reveal the Wii's price at E3, Famitsu asked readers what they expect the system to cost. Survey takers selected the 25,000 yen price point to the tune of 53.6% of the vote. This isn't much of a surprise, as all Nintendo consoles including and following the Super Famicom, have been launched at that very price point. The next popular choice was 30,000 yen, with 35,000 and 20,000 yen coming in at third.

Finally, the survey asked readers to select the upcoming game that most interests them. Zelda Twilight Princess for the Wii took the top spot. Trailing behind it were Final Fantasy XIII (PS3), Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3), Smash Brothers X (Wii), Dragon Quest Sword (Wii), Super Mario Galaxy (Wii), Final Fantasy III (DS), Monster Hunter 3 (PS3), Resident Evil (Wii) and Halo 3 (Xbox 360).

Nintendo's Wii hardware seems to have been the big E3 winner, at least amongst readers of Famitsu.com. Now the big question is how this will translate into sales later this year.

Very small sample size and it looks kind of odd (e.g. where is the PSP?) But I do think hell just froze over... look at game #10 I would have never thought!

Anyhow, it seems Nintendo has gotten consumer attention in Japan. Before last years TGS if someone had said Revolution would win a poll with 65%+ of the votes over the PS3 and Xbox 360 in Japan I would have said you were crazy.

EDIT: Easier to read quick reference list:

What game are you most interested in?
1. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii, Nintendo)
2. Final Fantasy XIII (PS3, Square Enix)
3. Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3, Konami)
4. Dragon Quest Swords (Wii, Square Enix)
5. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Wii, Nintendo)
6. Super Mario Galaxy (Wii, Nintendo)
7. Final Fantasy III (NDS, Square Enix)
8. Monster Hunter 3 (PS3, Capcom)
9. Resident Evil (Wii, Capcom)
10. Halo 3 (Xbox 360)

What hardware are you looking forward to most?
Wii - 68.8%
PS3 - 21.0%
360 - 7.2%
NDS - 3.0%

What do you think of the price of the PS3?
I think the price is high - 88.4%
The price is okay - 10.9%
The console is cheap - 0.7%

 

[Guden Oden]

The fact that DS received 3% in this survey, yet will move on to be the console that sells the most units by FAR probably shows how much importance we can put on it.

In other words... Let's not go overboard here when we all Wii together.

 

[NANOTEC]

Wii RE made the top 10 while RE5 for PS3/X360 didn't...interesting.

 

[expletive]

360 is only 14% behind the PS3? Hmmmm......

 

[Teasy]

The fact that DS received 3% in this survey, yet will move on to be the console that sells the most units by FAR probably shows how much importance we can put on it.

In other words... Let's not go overboard here when we all Wii together.

The first question was about how good a showing each system had at E3, DS's showing was pretty poor so its understandable that it got a very low vote.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

I agree with Guden, except I want to add the fact that not only is the DS number surprising, the result of the PS3 cost is rather important.

Those two results are interesting.. I don't know if we can totally discount this poll, but I think he has certainly hit on something here.. which is the phrasing of the questions.

Which hardware are they looking forward to the most?

They've already seen and can get the 360 and the DS. Doesn't it make sense that they aren't 'looking forward' to them as much as they are to the PS3 and Wii that they haven't actually seen or can purchase yet?

Here's where you add Guden's observation that the DS (ranked last) will most likely sell the most, and you realize that 'looking forward to' is a rather worthless measurement.

Now add in the PS3 pricing question. The answers were 'I think it's high, I think it's ok, I think it's cheap'.

The only logical conclusion we can gain from the results is that Sony's PR campaign of 'The PS3 is too cheap!' isn't working because less than 1% of the respondents believe them.

The middle figure might be accurate, but is worthless. And the majority result ("High") is also worthless because the answer isn't listed as too high. Only high.

I buy things that are expensive all the time. I know they are expensive, yet I still buy them anyway.

What I don't do (obviously) is buy things that I consider to be too high.

So, like any poll, this one has issues in both the questions asked and the available responses allowed.

 

[Acert93]

360 is only 14% behind the PS3? Hmmmm......

That would be shocking if the PS3 had 55% of the poll and 41% had the 360. That would indicate significant headway by MS. But the 360 got a mere 7% interest post E3 as the "hardware of most interest".

So the hmmmmm is not MS moving up--but Sony flip-flopping with Nintendo. Nearly 7-out-of-10 Japanese gamers, post E3, are most interested in the Wii compared to the PS3.

These findings may be dubious to a degree due to the small sample size, but there can be some reasons for this:

* Cost. Wii is looking at a price tag in the $199 range. Considering Sony may got the UK route (only 60GB version at launch) that is a $400 difference. Basically you can buy a Wii & 8 games for the cost of the PS3 without a single game. Considering 88% thought the price was high this certainly is a big factor.

* Software. This is just my opinion (and gross generalization), but it has always appeared to me Japanese gamers like trying new things. Wii gives them that. The controller is unique, the games look to have a new gameplay experience, and Nintendo is a trusted brand with strong Japanese roots. The console is also small (a complaint about the Xbox1, and the PS3 is even bigger).

* Hardware. The PS3 packs a big punch, but it is tailored to meet a lot of tomorrows demands versus what consumers are demanding today. I am sure this will change in the next 12 months, but right now it is not the case for a large part of the market. I was at my electronics store the other day and there were no HD media players and my local movie place had no HD media. The PS3 costs a premium for tomorrows technology. Software drives hardware and right now the Blu Ray perk, while a good long term bet, is not quite the consensus market wide "must have" right now. Online is another issue. It has been said a few times here by Sony advocates that online gaming is not as big in Japan as it is elsewhere. A significant part of Sony's new message is their online service which seems to be emulating the Live model which has not done well in Japan. And the PS3 power is another. It is powerful, but it did not distance itself, the E3 software looked more similar to the 360's software than the E3 2005 expectation. On the other hand Nintendo, in the mind of many, completely delivered on their intuitive gameplay theme. "Get in the game" -- literally.

As shocking as the 68-21 spread is (I still think the sample is skewed) there are reasons why this could happen. A subtle note: it was console hardware of most interest. It may be the Wii is most anticipated, but it does not mean they wont by a PS3. This actually may be skewing the numbers more. Nintendo may have pulled significantly from Sony's numbers, but not MS's at all. Yet if you asked gamers to rank, in order, interest we would see more separation between MS and Sony in Japan.

If this is accurate (again, up to debate) Sony does get a silver lining. Wii looks to be manufacturing bound at 6M units through March 2007 as well. And since Sony is strong world wide and will sell all 6M units they have a solid year from now to continue building interest in Blu Ray, continue pushing forth MGS and FF, and demonstrating their market leadership/dominance through quality software, high hardware production, reduced price, a great online service, and innovation through the convergence of HD media with gaming. Thus meeting consumer demands just as the begin to catch on fire for these new technologies.

 

[dantruon]

how can people actually draw any valid conclusion from this survey?, there are flaws in this survey which made the conclusion invalid. Firstly, the sameple size is way too small (297) for a population that is around 180 millions. Secondly, the sample they used are not random nor stratified which suggested that the sample size used was not spread out across the nations and thus are not homogenious. Thirdly and lastly, the measurement instrument used such as the comparision between the Wii and the PS3 is invalid because there are many differences between them such as the big price gap between them as well as the fact that both the Wii and the PS3 has different market. So a direct comparision is nor sufficent or neccessary to draw any valid conclusion, a better comparison the poll should have used is between the xbox360 and the PS3 because they are both targeting the same market.

 

[expletive]

That would be shocking if the PS3 had 55% of the poll and 41% had the 360. That would indicate significant headway by MS. But the 360 got a mere 7% interest post E3 as the "hardware of most interest".

So the hmmmmm is not MS moving up--but Sony flip-flopping with Nintendo. Nearly 7-out-of-10 Japanese gamers, post E3, are most interested in the Wii compared to the PS3.

Yep I agree, its just amazing that regardless of the absolute interest of the 360 in Japan, that they are so close. Your point is valid but so is the point that the PS3's interest, in this poll, is still only 14% higher and equally poor in abolsute terms.

I think its an interesting situation if the Wii launches first for $199 (relatively speaking) in Japan. Could that possibly hurt the PS3 sales?

If people IN JP are having fun playing with their respective Wiis (man, that never gets old) for $199, is there any way the PS3 sales could suffer? Is there any way the PS3 wont sell through? I personally cant imagine it, at any price....

 

[mckmas8808]

Yep I agree, its just amazing that regardless of the absolute interest of the 360 in Japan, that they are so close. Your point is valid but so is the point that the PS3's interest, in this poll, is still only 14% higher and equally poor in abolsute terms.

I think its an interesting situation if the Wii launches first for $199 (relatively speaking) in Japan. Could that possibly hurt the PS3 sales?

If people IN JP are having fun playing with their respective Wiis (man, that never gets old) for $199, is there any way the PS3 sales could suffer? Is there any way the PS3 wont sell through? I personally cant imagine it, at any price....

Yes the Wii will without a doubt hurt the PS3 sales. How much who knows.

 

[wco81]

The thing to bear watching is not early sales or marketshare for the Wii.

It would be whether sales could be sustained. Will people getting over the novelty be reflected over time?

That is, how different will the third or fourth sword or tennis game be from the first or second? How many novel ways will they have to do easy jestures for common on-screen actions?

Japan is adopting HDTV fairly quickly. When the novelty of the controller runs its course, will Japanese gamers be satisfied playing 480p games on their Bravias and HD plasmas?

 

[cthellis42]

 

[StefanS]

how can people actually draw any valid conclusion from this survey?, there are flaws in this survey which made the conclusion invalid. Firstly, the sameple size is way too small (297) for a population that is around 180 millions.

Firstly, Japan's population is currently 127.6 million. But that's hardly of importance. It's not a poll to investigate the Japanese gaming interests, but a poll among the Famitsu.com readers during E3. A crowd of gaming enthusiasts that is considerably less than 127.6 million.

Secondly, the sample they used are not random nor stratified which suggested that the sample size used was not spread out across the nations and thus are not homogenious.

Since it was apparently an online poll, it would be idiotic to demand that it should be stratified. We can at least guess that there were at people from all major urban centers of Japan. But that's hardly relevant unless we know that the Japanese gaming market shows, in fact, regional difference. If you have such data, please share because that would probably be an interesting read.

Thirdly and lastly, the measurement instrument used such as the comparision between the Wii and the PS3 is invalid because there are many differences between them such as the big price gap between them as well as the fact that both the Wii and the PS3 has different market. So a direct comparision is nor sufficent or neccessary to draw any valid conclusion, a better comparison the poll should have used is between the xbox360 and the PS3 because they are both targeting the same market.

Nonsense, they're both video consoles. Their price gap is about as high as $300 and we all know they share a target audience, namely the famitsu readers, i.e. the traditional gamers. So why should the comparison be invalid?

Anyway, I am not saying the poll is the absolute truth. It's just shows a small picture of the interests of the famitsu readers.

 

[JasonLD]

While any poll results should be taken as a grain of salt, it shows Nintendo is heading right direction with Wii in Japan. Last generation, as far as I can remember, PS2 dominated any poll surveyed in Japan..with Gamecube being distant second.
I think massive success of DS in Japan proved that they are hungry for innovative idea that can change the way the games played..Considering the current status of Japanese market, Wii might be the perfect product.
I might be wrong, but I think that kind of excitement is something we haven't seen from Nintendo for a quite a while, beside portable market of course.

 

[dantruon]

it is still stupid to infer anything from a small sample size like that to the whole population of the gaming public in japan.

 

[assen]

The 10th place for Halo 3 is not at all surprising given the 7.2% expressing interest in Xbox 360. You can safely assume that nearly everyone who answered 360 on the console question would answer Halo 3 on the game question, and it's hard not to get into the top 10 with 7.2% - simple math.

 

[TheChefO]

OOOOUUUCH! If this poll bears any resemblence to the true response to ps3 pricing in the land of the playstation then heads will roll at Sony corporate

-"Mr burns we have the report from Japan. 'Exxccellent'"

 

[Arwin]

Regardless of whether or not it is representative, it's a temporary measurement, and you can see by comparing to the previous poll how quickly things can change. Who knows what happens after TGS ... If the PS3 controller receives some love in the form of LocoRoco and Mercury like stuff, as well as convincing use in other genres, it could certainly balance things out more (and wipe the 360 off the Japanese map entirely, which is a bit unfortunate - though who knows microsoft comes up with something similar, but with rumble ).

I do think however that on the short term, Nintendo should do well. They will benefit from the DS. Mind you I think both consoles will sell more than they can build for a while in Japan. Few over there will miss out on MGS4 or Final Fantasy XIII though, so I suspect many will get both Wii and PS3, but some will wait until the first PS3 pricecuts have happened - not that they will have much of a choice, because as said there just won't be enough of them to go round.

I'm interested also in what will happen with the PSP in the near future. How big of an impact will the release of Tekken and not to long thereafter MGS have? Tekken has gotten really good preview ratings and should be out by next month.

I think if Nintendo get it right, initially the Wii will do really well and eventually skip ahead on the PS3, much like PSP and DS. If the Wii is as well done as the DS and succeeds in appealing in a similar way, it's low price will help it do really well and it will potentially stay ahead of the PS3 for a fair while. Once the PS3 gets into its third year, however, the technology gap will have become very visible and HD / BluRay a lot more common, the price within 200-300 range, and the must-have games very, very plentiful.

All in all, I stick to my premise that there's plenty of room in Japan for both Wii and PS3, and for 360, Wii and PS3 in the rest of the world.

 

[Refreshment]

The first question was about how good a showing each system had at E3, DS's showing was pretty poor so its understandable that it got a very low vote.

Come on Teasy, you know Guden is right. This stuff almost always turns out different. Just look at the famitsu top ten as potencial sales measure.

The PS3 is going to sell every unit in Japan with its millions of dedicated followers. The PS2 debuted at U.S. 375-380 in Japan and there was people camping overnight at the stores to get the system. The X360 debuted at 350 and there were salemen camping outside the stores trying to sell the system to the people.

 

[TheChefO]

Regardless of whether or not it is representative, it's a temporary measurement, and you can see by comparing to the previous poll how quickly things can change. Who knows what happens after TGS ... If the PS3 controller receives some love in the form of LocoRoco and Mercury like stuff, as well as convincing use in other genres, it could certainly balance things out more (and wipe the 360 off the Japanese map entirely, which is a bit unfortunate - though who knows microsoft comes up with something similar, but with rumble ).

I do think however that on the short term, Nintendo should do well. They will benefit from the DS. Mind you I think both consoles will sell more than they can build for a while in Japan. Few over there will miss out on MGS4 or Final Fantasy XIII though, so I suspect many will get both Wii and PS3, but some will wait until the first PS3 pricecuts have happened - not that they will have much of a choice, because as said there just won't be enough of them to go round.

I'm interested also in what will happen with the PSP in the near future. How big of an impact will the release of Tekken and not to long thereafter MGS have? Tekken has gotten really good preview ratings and should be out by next month.

I think if Nintendo get it right, initially the Wii will do really well and eventually skip ahead on the PS3, much like PSP and DS. If the Wii is as well done as the DS and succeeds in appealing in a similar way, it's low price will help it do really well and it will potentially stay ahead of the PS3 for a fair while. Once the PS3 gets into its third year, however, the technology gap will have become very visible and HD / BluRay a lot more common, the price within 200-300 range, and the must-have games very, very plentiful.

All in all, I stick to my premise that there's plenty of room in Japan for both Wii and PS3, and for 360, Wii and PS3 in the rest of the world.

excellent post - I agree 92.5%