Is the end nigh? PC market freefall accelerates.

[joker454]

Don't confuse yourself. They will simply go for the Windows 7 which will have extended support perhaps till 2020. If MS continues to release false versions

That would be really stupid. Think about it, if they are still rocking Windows XP then their hardware is likely very old. They would get better performance going to Windows 8 compared to Windows 7, as Windows 8 would run faster on their archaic hardware as it's a somewhat leaner running os. It would also be kept more up to date on security.

In any case, some data for all interested, I checked analytics on my websites to see what people are using, my sites get millions of hits so they have been a pretty good indicator over the years. Windows use breaks down like this:

1. 7, 58.20%
2. XP, 26.46%
3. Vista, 9.93%
4. 8, 5.17%

So Windows 8 use keeps on getting higher. What's more interesting though is that for the first time ever iOS passed OSx as far as what os my users have:

1. Windows, 75.68%
2. iOS, 7.12%
3. Macintosh, 7.02%
4. Android, 5.24%

Windows use has been dropping slowly, it used to be 91% a few years ago now its down to 75%. The interweb will claim that it's due to Linux and Mac, but OSx has always been stuck around 7% for years, and Linux has always been near the 1% mark for years as well, both have been stagnant for many years now. Windows use is basically being replaced by tablets and phones which used to be just 1% of my users and now are represented by 12%. I don't know if I would call that a pc market free fall, but it clearly does show to me where users are trending to.

EDIT: Actually if I include Blackberry and other phones/tablets, tablet+phone use is closer to 15%.

 

[Grall]

Although ribbons did take a bit to get used to in Office.

Never used office in 10+ years, but ribbon as used in some of the supplied win7 default programs is great IMO. Really excellent UI design methinks, very clear and easy to use, except for that it takes up a bit of screen space so if you have limited (vertical, in particular) rez it could perhaps get irritating. *shrug*

I don't mind change, if it's good change. Removing the start menu for no genuine reason and replacing it with POS ugly-colored tiles that cover the entire fucking screen, and booting straight into said ugly UI that can only run one app at a time - and always fullscreen - is just bullshit. I repeat: BULLSHIT.

It's clearly a case of MS trying to connivingly use desktop windows to program people into buying their mobile devices running winRT and phone OSes, just so that they would recognize the UI from one device to another. However tiles don't make sense on a desktop OS, and I'm happier than a clam that computer users in general are rejecting MS's scheming on an almost wholesale level.

 

[silent_guy]

Meanwhile the majority of people appreciate the changes that make life easier in the OS after the initial 10 minute adjustment period. Although ribbons did take a bit to get used to in Office.

I don't know many people who were complaining about Win7, which suggests that good upgrades are appreciated.

The problem is that a majority of people still have to discover those things in Win8 that make life easier. I really can't think of a single obvious one. (Some arcane keyboard shortcuts don't qualify as obvious, and that's coming from somebody who loves adding keyboard macros left and right to reduce mouse usage.)

 

[Albuquerque]

Don't confuse yourself. They will simply go for the Windows 7...<snip>

Uh? That's the whole "catch up" part I was describing. Yeah.

<snip>...which will have extended support perhaps till 2020. If MS continues to release false versions

Yes, they will have extended support until 2020. And will enterprises continue to use that software until it goes out of support? Just like they're doing with Windows XP that is now ten years old? Yes, they will.

 

[rpg.314]

Having said that, just about everyone I know who has a tablet or smartphone also has a desktop/laptop of some sort, so maybe the smaller form factor is really an addition to the household PC, rather than a replacement.

Except in due course of time, laptops will be seen as an accessory to tablets/phones.

 

[AlexV]

Except in due course of time, laptops will be seen as an accessory to tablets/phones.

I've yet to see a way in which one can actually do useful / serious work on a phone / tablet, unless it ends up turned into pretty much a laptop by docking, adding a keyboard and a screen (more often than not). So if by accessory you mean the thing that you actually have to open once you've fetched your mails and figured out you do need to also reply to them beyond reading them, then yes, that might happen. Otherwise, I am uncertain exactly how this handheld revolution is supposed to occur, once the fad weans off.

 

[joker454]

I've yet to see a way in which one can actually do useful / serious work on a phone / tablet, unless it ends up turned into pretty much a laptop by docking, adding a keyboard and a screen (more often than not).

The Dell flippy screen one my wife has isn't bad (can't remember the model number). It's a regular laptop by day, and you can flip the screen around and rest it on the laptop to give it tablet form factor. Most people on forums hated it without ever even trying it naturally, but after using it for a while I kinda like it, it just needs to be lighter and get better battery life. I'm hoping a Haswell refresh will help with that. Additionally with Haswell the GT3e gpu can hopefully be put to use accelerating video processing and other such things once software catches up and supports it.

 

[rpg.314]

I've yet to see a way in which one can actually do useful / serious work on a phone / tablet, unless it ends up turned into pretty much a laptop by docking, adding a keyboard and a screen (more often than not). So if by accessory you mean the thing that you actually have to open once you've fetched your mails and figured out you do need to also reply to them beyond reading them, then yes, that might happen. Otherwise, I am uncertain exactly how this handheld revolution is supposed to occur, once the fad weans off.

I dont see what's wrong with a dock. When people need to get real work done, they are usually near a desk or in office anyway. Their personal use consists of a lot more keyboard less use.

And even if >99% of people keep a laptop and a tablet around, the laptop is going to get a lot less love simply because it's used much less often. Much slower upgrade cycle means a much smaller market.

OT: It's kind of amazing how often people cite a $20 keyboard as a justification for a $1000 laptop in face of a $500 tablet.

 

[Blazkowicz]

It's amazing how often people cite a touchscreen as a justification for a $500 tablet in face of a $250 laptop.

(It's amazing how often people cite a keyboard as a justification for a $250 laptop in face of a $100 tablet. It's amazing how often people cite a touchscreen as a justification for a $100 tablet in face of.. hummm)
(that 10 year old desktop that's a lot more powerful than it?)

 

[pjbliverpool]

Id love to see some of the spreadsheets i use for work running on a tablet.

 

[Gubbi]

I don't know many people who were complaining about Win7, which suggests that good upgrades are appreciated.

The thing is, Windows 7 is Vista with minor tweaks.

Vista introduced a ton of new shit: A new display driver model, a new audio stack, a new printer stack, signed drivers, Aero and a completely new (and very very much needed) user-credentials escalation model among lots of other things.

Most common complaints were: Old hardware stopped working (mostly printers) since no signed driver were available from hardware vendors. Aero was too taxing for the IGPs of the time and people found the credentials dialogues aggravating (and rightly so).

Two years later, Windows 7 comes along, and the only major thing they have changed is the credentials escalation handling. People either bought new printers or the vendors got their shit together, IGPs went from craptastic to just slow, - and suddenly Win 7 it is the best thing ever.

Cheers

 

[Rodéric]

Just give their respective versions numbers and everything is told:
Vista is Windows 6.0
7 is Windows 6.1

 

[AlexV]

Two years later, Windows 7 comes along, and the only major thing they have changed is the credentials escalation handling. People either bought new printers or the vendors got their shit together, IGPs went from craptastic to just slow, - and suddenly Win 7 it is the best thing ever.

Cheers

Does it not give the impression that Microsoft has this absolutely brilliant 1-2 punch scheme, keeping it fresh so that people keep buying, whilst minimising their investment (UI and usability tweaks for the "good" version). Of course I doubt that it's as brilliant/nefarious/whatever, but still...remember Project Navajo, or whatever it was called? :smile:

 

[jimbo75]

Does it not give the impression that Microsoft has this absolutely brilliant 1-2 punch scheme, keeping it fresh so that people keep buying, whilst minimising their investment (UI and usability tweaks for the "good" version). Of course I doubt that it's as brilliant/nefarious/whatever, but still...remember Project Navajo, or whatever it was called? :smile:

I thought about that as well and tbh this "plan" could easily work if it's done every 7-8 years like from XP>Vista>7 but not sure it'll work in a shorter timeframe. I just realised I bought XP, Vista and 7 so I fell for it (got 7 cheap however).

I'm just too content with 7 to move to 8. Well what I mean is, I'm too content with 7 to *pay* for 8 and it'll take more than a start menu to change my mind.

 

[silent_guy]

Most common complaints were: Old hardware stopped working (mostly printers) since no signed driver were available from hardware vendors. Aero was too taxing for the IGPs of the time and people found the credentials dialogues aggravating (and rightly so).

Yes. All things that can be infuriatingly annoying if they get in your way. It doesn't matter if the intentions are good: you botch a few important details and people get up in arms. It's surprising that MS didn't learn a lesson there.

 

[UniversalTruth]

The thing is, Windows 7 is Vista with minor tweaks.

Vista introduced a ton of new shit: A new display driver model, a new audio stack, a new printer stack, signed drivers, Aero and a completely new (and very very much needed) user-credentials escalation model among lots of other things.

Most common complaints were: Old hardware stopped working (mostly printers) since no signed driver were available from hardware vendors. Aero was too taxing for the IGPs of the time and people found the credentials dialogues aggravating (and rightly so).

Two years later, Windows 7 comes along, and the only major thing they have changed is the credentials escalation handling. People either bought new printers or the vendors got their shit together, IGPs went from craptastic to just slow, - and suddenly Win 7 it is the best thing ever.

Cheers

No, the difference between Vista and 7 is like night and day with regards to how the OS taxes the hardware. With Vista it was a nightmare experience with my laptop, while with 7 it is much more stable, responsive and fast. It is like I have a new laptop

 

[swaaye]

I don't agree. I deal with Vista daily and it is really very similar to 7 in how it runs. Even on 2009 hardware with IGPs. Maybe SP2 is just much improved. Vista has some file manager advantages that people at work like too. I've also run it off a SSD and that makes it as smooth as can be.


Oh and I wonder if part of the reason for netbook death is that netbooks stopped improving years ago. There's nothing much exciting there.

 

[OpenGL guy]

I don't agree. I deal with Vista daily and it is really very similar to 7 in how it runs. Even on 2009 hardware with IGPs. Maybe SP2 is just much improved. Vista has some file manager advantages that people at work like too. I've also run it off a SSD and that makes it as smooth as can be.

Microsoft improved VidMM in Windows 7. That had a large impact for certain cases, although the benefits could vary depending on what GPU you had.

 

[AlexV]

I don't agree. I deal with Vista daily and it is really very similar to 7 in how it runs. Even on 2009 hardware with IGPs. Maybe SP2 is just much improved. Vista has some file manager advantages that people at work like too. I've also run it off a SSD and that makes it as smooth as can be.


Oh and I wonder if part of the reason for netbook death is that netbooks stopped improving years ago. There's nothing much exciting there.

Netbooks have (had, they're dead now anyways) basically the same problem as tablets. Once the novelty wears off, you're left with a cute device that is most poor at getting anything worthwhile done (guess staring at FB is good - yes I am moderately mean here), and which is already good enough for the social stuff (unless you have some of the more awful early ones) - why exactly buy a new one? So they had no clear path to continued sales / growth and, furthermore, weren't exactly something Intel (because a far juicier mix was doable) was interested in doing and thus lost the interest of their creator soon enough, IMHO.

 

[Blazkowicz]

And what happened to netbooks was Vista Starter and 7 Starter, too. I don't know what the restrictions are currently but who wants that exactly?

I think they can come back, with hardware refresh. Next gen Atom (that is still a year off) and Kabini with two cores disabled, which comes soon enough. It could use an mSATA SSD, so it gets back to the original eee PC formula in a sense but it should keep the 2.5" drive bay or provide internal micro SD for storage upgrade.

That'd be reasonable to drop HDD capability if you can add affordable flash to it. And please keep the ethernet connector, offer VGA + HDMI, three USB ports etc. : the whole point of netbooks was that they were regular PCs. One free mini PCIe slot to allow adding a 4G modem (or something else) ; commodity USB 3 and gigabit ethernet. At least 8GB maximum supported amount of ddr3.

The problem is what OS does the OEM put on it . There's Windows 8, soon Blue.. Well, such hardware should run it fast - including the 3D hardware and driver. There's Chromebook OS : would Google distribute it for inclusion on such vanilla hardware, with no missing keys on the keyboard? And there's me, who would like it fine if it came with FreeDOS and let me do whatever I want with it.