iPhone/Zune/iPod & More Prediction Thread
- Thread starter Arun
- Start date
Good point, but the iPod 2,1 number is most likely over a year old, a lot has changed since Apple decided to name the 2008 iPod touch 2,1. Maybe it's just that the development of new SoCs got accelerated because of the acquisition of PA Semi. Who knows, anything is possible.
So let's just ignore the June iPhone and concentrate on the speculated Q4 iPhone (3,1) with 5MP and a brand new SoC :smile: . What app processor and SGX version do you think we'll see? ARM11, Cortex-A8 or even Cortex-A9? The most logical thing would be a Cortex-A8 (after two years of ARM11) and then in 2011 Cortex-A9 (after two years of A8). And there's a small chance for a custom ARMv7 design (like Snapdragon). But personally I'd like to see them go directly from ARM11 to Cortex-A9MP, so my prediction for the Q4 SoC is a upgraded and higher clocked ARM11 (an then beat TI's OMAP4 with a A9 in 2010
).Is there really that much overlap between PSP and iPhone/iPod Touch customers?
The average selling price of a PSP game has to be at least 4 times that of the ASP of the iPhone game.
And yet the game playing capability of the two devices is not so dissimilar, which is where the problem arises for Sony. They have to make their portable gaming playing device much more appealing than the iphone otherwise why will people pay x4 the cost for the games. It wasn't an issue until the iphone came along...it now is. And lets not forget the itouch, which is a non-contract device, that is even more a competitive threat to the traditional portable game playing devices.
But most of the iPhone games which are doing well aren't even 3D or don't come close in terms of production values.
So far the only $10 games have been mostly ports of games from other systems, so they didn't have to build up a shrink-wrap quality game from scratch.
The cheaper games are about the equivalent of XBL Arcade and PSN games, no?
One thing though, PSP had good sales of hardware in recent years but not so much on the software side, other than a few blockbusters like God of War here and there.
On local Craiglist, there are a lot of ads for hacked PSPs along with DVDs full of ripped games. Could that partly account for the disparity in PSP hardware vs. software sales?
So far the only $10 games have been mostly ports of games from other systems, so they didn't have to build up a shrink-wrap quality game from scratch.
The cheaper games are about the equivalent of XBL Arcade and PSN games, no?
One thing though, PSP had good sales of hardware in recent years but not so much on the software side, other than a few blockbusters like God of War here and there.
On local Craiglist, there are a lot of ads for hacked PSPs along with DVDs full of ripped games. Could that partly account for the disparity in PSP hardware vs. software sales?
Again, the problem as I see it (for Sony and others ) is that there is literally thousands of games for the itouch/iphone, some free, some a few dollars some $10. Its an entire platform of software/hardware that they can not compete with, which has come from nowhere.
The App store is an extremely potent weapon....distribute 1 billion apps in 9 months from a standing start ?....totally unheard of at any level of computing.
on the app store, out of the top 20 "paid for" apps on the all-time list, 14 of them are games...do they necessitate 3D hardware?, I don't know (I don't have an iphone)...does it point the way forward?...it definitely does.
The method of getting software to end users, including giving just about anyone access to your entire userbase for 30%, is a threat to all traditional mobile gaming providers.
The App store is an extremely potent weapon....distribute 1 billion apps in 9 months from a standing start ?....totally unheard of at any level of computing.
on the app store, out of the top 20 "paid for" apps on the all-time list, 14 of them are games...do they necessitate 3D hardware?, I don't know (I don't have an iphone)...does it point the way forward?...it definitely does.
The method of getting software to end users, including giving just about anyone access to your entire userbase for 30%, is a threat to all traditional mobile gaming providers.
See I've downloaded mostly free games including Monkeyball Lite. But the game I've played the most is this little ski jump thing which is 2D.
A lot of these games look more closer to flash games or stuff you'd see on Yahoo Games, so it would appeal to a different audience.
No evidence that iPhone games are taking sales away from PSP or DS. PSP might be stalling now because it's old and there aren't any big blockbusters out for it now.
A lot of these games look more closer to flash games or stuff you'd see on Yahoo Games, so it would appeal to a different audience.
No evidence that iPhone games are taking sales away from PSP or DS. PSP might be stalling now because it's old and there aren't any big blockbusters out for it now.
I don't think the question is so much whether the iPhone is taking sales from the PSP/DS (although the latter is IMO more vulnerable here) but rather whether the next-gen one on SGX will. Apple would be crazy not to more aggressively aim it at the same market...
BTW, Infineon released its quarterly results now and it looks like they're very bullish on wireless for the next quarter, so I guess it's safe to say the June iPhone will still be based on an Infineon chipset - my mistake.
EDIT: I'm listening to the call now and, when asked, they reluctantly implicitly said that it was existing products - not new ones - that will improve wireless in Q2. They also repeated HSDPA when the analyst said that. This would imply Apple is sticking to their current solution, and the rumours indicating HSUPA are wrong. Then the question is who wins the next socket in 2H09...
BTW, Infineon released its quarterly results now and it looks like they're very bullish on wireless for the next quarter, so I guess it's safe to say the June iPhone will still be based on an Infineon chipset - my mistake.
EDIT: I'm listening to the call now and, when asked, they reluctantly implicitly said that it was existing products - not new ones - that will improve wireless in Q2. They also repeated HSDPA when the analyst said that. This would imply Apple is sticking to their current solution, and the rumours indicating HSUPA are wrong. Then the question is who wins the next socket in 2H09...
Some stories in the business media about speculated Apple products. Business week says Apple has talked to Verizon about a lower-cost iPhone and a media pad. The BW rendering of the latter shows no buttons so not particularly useful for gaming.
A WSJ story talks about two former execs. of ATI/AMD joining Apple to build up in-house chip design capabilities. It makes it sound like eventually, Apple will do everything in-house to control confidentiality about future products.
A WSJ story talks about two former execs. of ATI/AMD joining Apple to build up in-house chip design capabilities. It makes it sound like eventually, Apple will do everything in-house to control confidentiality about future products.
I don't think AMOLED Displays are ready for prime time in mobile phones. One of the advantages of the current iPhone display is its great readability in sunlight, at least compared to other touchscreen phones. But right now it seems even the best and brightest AMOLED suck in sunlight:
Samsung OMNIA HD i8910 Review:
"Just as expected, the screen delivers beautiful, saturated colors albeit in artificial lighting only. Unfortunately, you can hardly see any details on the screen if you take the phone outdoors in bright sunlight, especially if you happen to forget to wipe the fingerprint-smudged surface clean."
http://www.phonearena.com/htmls/Samsung-OMNIA-HD-i8910-Review-review-r_2148.html
And keep in mind that after MWC the Omnia HD was praised all around the net for its "fantastic" and "best-ever" display.
But on the plus side, the 4.1 hours of HD video capture for the Omnia HD exceed my expectations! I'd love to see something like that in the next iPhone!
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Ike Turner
Veteran
Err that's if you change your battery every 30 minutes
. 4.1 hours is the memry limitation AFAIK. As For the outdoor visibilty it has more to to with the glass (and digitizer on resitive touchscreens) use on top of the screen than the screen itself (see the variation between many of the WM phones out there.
Some more phone Specs:
Samsung GT-i8000 aka CUBIC37:
CPU/GPU unknown (PXA312@624mhz? PXA320@806Mhz? MSM7200a528Mhz?)
Baseband unknown (Qualcomm?)
Screen 800x480 (resistive or capacitive like the i7500?)
8MPix camera
8Gb/16Gb of mem plus MicroSD
FM radio
Windows 6.1/6.5 with Samsung's new Cube 3D interface (Sammy and LG sure do like to copy each other ALOT!)
Samsung Louvre (Omnia Pro)
CPU/GPU unknown (PXA312@624mhz?)
Baseband same as current Omnia
Screen 800x480 resistive
5Mpix camera (or maybe 8mp)
8Gb/16Gb of mem plus MicroSD
FM radio
Full QWERTY sliding keyboard
WM6.1/6.5
I think AMOLEDs are just not bright enough for bright sunlight yet. Since they have no reflective part like transflective LCD Displays, they have to "shine" all on their own
But maybe in Q4 they will be good enough, 6 months is a lot of time.
Ike Turner
Veteran
Some More WinMo 7 stuff...
http://blogs.zdnet.com/microsoft/?p=2752
WM7 Chassis 1 Specification
Core requirements:
Processor: ARM v6+, L2 Cache, VFP, Open GL ES 2.0 graphics HW (QCOM 8k, Nvidia AP15/16* and TI 3430 all meet spec)
Memory: 256MB+ DRAM, 1G+ Flash (at least 512MB fast flash – 5MB/s unbuffered read @4K block size)
Display: WVGA (800×480) or FWVGA (854×480) 3.5” or greater diagonal
Touch: Multi-touch required
Battery: Sufficient to meet Days of Use LTK requirements.
Controls: Start, Back, Send and End are required (soft controls allowed as long as they are always present).
Peripherals:
Camera: 3MP+, flash optional, 2nd camera optional (VGA resolution sufficient)
GPS: aGPS required
Sensors required: Light Sensor, Compass (3 axis, 5 degrees, 100 Hz sample rate), Accelerometer (3 axis, 2mg resolution, 100 Hz sample rate)
USB: High speed required, 20 MB/s transfer rate.
BlueTooth: BT2.1 required, must run MSFT BT stack, CSR BlueCore6 or later recommended.
Wi-Fi: 802.11B/G required, must run MSFT Native Wi-Fi stack, Atheros 6002 or Broadcomm 4325 recommended.
Connectors: Micro USB and 3.5mm Audio required.
Options:
FM tuner: If tuner HW is present it will be detected and supported by the Media application.
Haptics
SD Card (Micro SD recommended)
DPAD, qwerty or 12/20 key keyboards all optional
w00t !
http://blogs.zdnet.com/microsoft/?p=2752
WM7 Chassis 1 Specification
Core requirements:
Processor: ARM v6+, L2 Cache, VFP, Open GL ES 2.0 graphics HW (QCOM 8k, Nvidia AP15/16* and TI 3430 all meet spec)
Memory: 256MB+ DRAM, 1G+ Flash (at least 512MB fast flash – 5MB/s unbuffered read @4K block size)
Display: WVGA (800×480) or FWVGA (854×480) 3.5” or greater diagonal
Touch: Multi-touch required
Battery: Sufficient to meet Days of Use LTK requirements.
Controls: Start, Back, Send and End are required (soft controls allowed as long as they are always present).
Peripherals:
Camera: 3MP+, flash optional, 2nd camera optional (VGA resolution sufficient)
GPS: aGPS required
Sensors required: Light Sensor, Compass (3 axis, 5 degrees, 100 Hz sample rate), Accelerometer (3 axis, 2mg resolution, 100 Hz sample rate)
USB: High speed required, 20 MB/s transfer rate.
BlueTooth: BT2.1 required, must run MSFT BT stack, CSR BlueCore6 or later recommended.
Wi-Fi: 802.11B/G required, must run MSFT Native Wi-Fi stack, Atheros 6002 or Broadcomm 4325 recommended.
Connectors: Micro USB and 3.5mm Audio required.
Options:
FM tuner: If tuner HW is present it will be detected and supported by the Media application.
Haptics
SD Card (Micro SD recommended)
DPAD, qwerty or 12/20 key keyboards all optional
w00t !
Wow, that's a nice leak I'm very happy about WM7 being OGL ES 2.0-only too. That's a MASSIVE step in the right direction, and also one hell of a confirmation that even WM7's *default* GUI is 3D. Those chips have quite different performance levels though, so it'll be interesting to see how game developers handle it. Also this could be why Qualcomm revised the QSC7230 (now known as the MSM7230) so significantly after its pre-announcement: it wouldn't have met the WM7 specs! (see: http://www.linleygroup.com/Newsletters/LinleyMobile/lm090129.html)
I'm intrigued by the multi-touch requirement though; one day Ballmer says Capacitive is too expensive, the next they outlaw anything else?! Unless they're considering promoting Stantum's multi-touch technology as an alternative, of course.... (just Google that if you don't know what I mean). One tidbit about that, BTW: much of the cost of the Stantum approach seems to be because they're using an off-the-shelf microcontroller and mini-FPGA for control logic. If this was integrated into a single chip, or even in the application processor, the main extra cost versus vanilla resistive would be the greater number of wires going from the touch screen to the rest of the system - not free, but not so far from it either compared to alternatives I think.
I'm very happy about WM7 being OGL ES 2.0-only too. That's a MASSIVE step in the right direction, and also one hell of a confirmation that even WM7's *default* GUI is 3D. Those chips have quite different performance levels though, so it'll be interesting to see how game developers handle it. Also this could be why Qualcomm revised the QSC7230 (now known as the MSM7230) so significantly after its pre-announcement: it wouldn't have met the WM7 specs! (see: http://www.linleygroup.com/Newsletters/LinleyMobile/lm090129.html)I'm intrigued by the multi-touch requirement though; one day Ballmer says Capacitive is too expensive, the next they outlaw anything else?! Unless they're considering promoting Stantum's multi-touch technology as an alternative, of course.... (just Google that if you don't know what I mean). One tidbit about that, BTW: much of the cost of the Stantum approach seems to be because they're using an off-the-shelf microcontroller and mini-FPGA for control logic. If this was integrated into a single chip, or even in the application processor, the main extra cost versus vanilla resistive would be the greater number of wires going from the touch screen to the rest of the system - not free, but not so far from it either compared to alternatives I think.
They basically gave up on their own internal API, it's still supported on quite a few chips but it will never get beyond DX7-level.