iPhone/Zune/iPod & More Prediction Thread

[Arun]

Go wild. FWIW, here are my predictions:

iPhone 2Q09 @ ~$99
Same app processor as iPod Touch 2G
3.2MP with ISP - see product brief
Qualcomm MSM6290 Baseband
802.11g/BT2, unknown chip(s)

Zune HD 3Q09
Tegra, who knows which SKU(s)
SiPort SP1010 for HD Radio
Atheros AR6002 802.11g
AMOLED

iPhone 4Q09 @ ~$299
App processor with SGX & VXD for 1080p decode
5MP with ISP & BSI - see product brief
Qualcomm MSM6290 Baseband
802.11n/BT2/etc. BCM4329
AMOLED

P.S.: In the unlikely event this gets picked up by a third party and someone goes nuts over my prediction of Infineon losing the baseband socket to Qualcomm, please note that this is mostly speculation. However, Infineon will nearly certainly not have its HSUPA solution ready for products released in June, and their performance/spectrum efficiency remains much lower than Qualcomm's which is a problem for carriers with the device generating the most data traffic in the world today. Finally, the main reason I'm betting on Qualcomm is that an analyst who uniquely leaked the iPod Shuffle refresh back in December also indicated that Qualcomm had won the iPhone socket.

As for the Verizon iPhone rumors in 2010, I believe those would likely be based on Qualcomm's multimode HSPA+/EV-DO/LTE chipset sampling in mid-2009. It should be usable for a phone launching in 4Q10 (I believe that's what Nokia will use too), and has the advantage of being a viable solution for every single non-WiMax network in the world. No exception, not even China Mobile. It's probably not a cheap chip, but at least there is no redundant application processor on it, and remember it wouldn't be a cheap phone either... Anyway this is the only way it would make sense, but that doesn't mean anything will happen either.

EDIT: It looks like Infineon is being very bullish on next quarter's wireless revenue - so it looks like I was probably wrong at least about the 2Q09 iPhone having a Qualcomm baseband... We'll see.

 

[Ike Turner]

And what about other phones spéculations ?

Here's mine

HTC Star 4Q09 :
Qualcomm SnapDragon QSD2850 @ 600Mhz
5Mpix cam with 720p encode
Qualcomm MSM6290 Baseband
WM 6.5

HTC SuperStar 4Q09/1Q10:
Tegra AP16 @ 600Mhz
Qualcomm MSM6290 Baseband or Ericsson EMP
5Mpix with 720p encode
HDMI out with 720P/1080P decode
Capacitive screen
WM 6.5

 

[Arun]

That seems reasonable, and mentioning both MSM6290 and ST-Ericsson as possibilities for SuperStar is probably a very good idea. I'd personally bet on the latter FWIW. Just two corrections:
- Snapdragon includes the baseband (not the WiFi/Bluetooth/etc. though), and it also only supports 720p decode, not encode which is still VGA.
- The phone SKU of the AP16 only supports 720p decode, not 1080p. Unlike AP15, it supports VC-1 Advanced Profile though, which is nice.

And obviously feel free to include any other flagship device you can think of... A couple of things that seem worth to point out there:
- LG very likely to use Tegra for WM6.5 phones, IMO. Would be interesting to see if they use it on lower-end models too.
- Samsung should probably have more OMAP3 models but seems to be the most diverse in terms of both platforms and OSes.
- Nokia likely to have a slim modem-based part of its portfolio with discrete app processors in addition to announced platforms.
- Motorola's custom OMAP3 platform with integrated baseband and Infineon RF still slated for 2H09 for first products. Two interesting posts on their Android progress... (1 & 2)
- SE seems to be in the toughest position of all with the least optimism from insiders, not clear what Idou is based on, probably 65nm U380 (OMAP3+EMP baseband) which still existed in January but not mentioned by ST-Ericsson at all in favour of 45nm U8500 Nomadik+Nokia baseband which comes later.

 

[Ike Turner]

oops forgot that QSD2850 and Tegra AP16 has only 720p Decode.

LG is realy quite lately though (nothing since the LG GM730 (MSM7200a) announcement at MWC).
Isn't Nokia going to start using Qualcomm MSM 7XXX/8XXX chipsets starting 2010 ?
see here http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/21/nokia-qualcomm-mobile-technology-wireless-nokia.html
http://www.slashgear.com/qualcomm-and-nokia-announce-us-mobile-device-collaboration-1734603/

Seems like Qualcomm is the big winner latetly (besides the 800m settelement with broacom today...).

 

[Arun]

oops forgot that QSD2850 and Tegra AP16 has only 720p Decode.

AP16 has 720p Encode, it just doesn't have 1080p Encode. I guess that's what you meant though...

LG is realy quite lately though (nothing since the LG GM730 (MSM7200a) announcement at MWC).

Yeah, they have been gaining quite a bit of market share though! Certainly in relative terms they are gaining the fastest right now, not sure in absolute terms though. FWIW, I think I mentioned this before but Arena uses an Infineon baseband and an AMD A250.

Isn't Nokia going to start using Qualcomm MSM 7XXX/8XXX chipsets starting 2010?

For the US market, yes - and obviously not just for LTE despite that being the only thing I mentioned.

Seems like Qualcomm is the big winner latetly (besides the 800m settelement with broacom today...).

Yes, and they'll have probably the strongest early positioning for LTE. However, from a fundamental point of view, I am extremely pessimistic about them in the mid/long-term. Basebands will soon become even more worthless (ASPs for deals signed in 2H08 already plunged pretty badly, and a certain UK company is partly to blame for that) and the real cost benefit of integrating them with application processors/connectivity/etc. is actually going down AFAICT. The licensing environment should also be less attractive for them in LTE.

I suspect people are going to look at Qualcomm's integrated HSPA+ solutions (including app processor, bluetooth, gps, fm, etc.) and realize discrete solutions from competitors can actually be cheaper and better for every subcomponent. We'll see, maybe I'm wrong, it's obviously hard to guess at this point!

 

[Wishmaster]

Arun: Edited so that this doesn't take a trillion different posts for something that isn't the original topic (devices!) and can be discussed practically anywhere else...

Arun you're sure that snapdragon has only VGA encode? I thought that it was 720p encode and decode. Besides when you check qualcomms website it clearly states its 720p encode, although you have to search to find it.
This is taken out straigh from their website:

Other features of the Snapdragon platform include integrated cellular broadband as well as support for Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and mobile TV; high definition video recording and playback; up to WXGA resolution (1280 x 768); sophisticated positioning with Assisted-GPS; hardware-accelerated 3D graphics; and industry-leading integration to enable smaller, sleeker devices.

It's possible that it was upgraded to 720p Encode. After all theirs is a partially software solution - however if so I fear the bitrate offered might not be very impressive. We'll see. It's also worth mentioning Toshiba never mentioned HD encode for the TG01 AFAIK...

They never mentioned 720p decode either AFAIK

They did, but really not much indeed. I seem to remember someone from Toshiba mentioning it wasn't yet exposed in the prototypes at the launch event but that it eventually will be. Either way this is nothing but a small detail, why exactly are we discussing it again? Damn Ike for unwillingly turning this into yet another Snapdragon vs World discussion

If so it means that Coreplayer will get full support of QTv before TG01 launches (cause they use CP as their default player for audio/video) and that is something I hope will happen sooner than later
Wherever you go you will always find qualcomm vs the world topic is it bad that I think that snapdragon will be great

 

[tangey]

iPhone 2Q09
Customised Samsung S5PC100 processor
with SGX graphics.


Zune HD 3Q09
Tegra


4Q09
iphone "pro"
which could be an iphone with better camera abilities
or could be an "upsized" iphone/itouch with larger screen
5MP camera.
Same processor and graphics as above.

2Q '10
iphone, in-house designed Soc from PA semi +
SGX graphics (MP ?)

3Q '10
Sony PSP2 Cortex A9 with multi-core SGX graphics.
Although, I'm starting to see some signs that sony may
bring out a PSP2 4Q '09 due to seeing how well the iphone
platform is doing. It is unclear how Sony will deal with
software compatiblity between current and next gen platforms.

SE seems to be in the toughest position of all with the least optimism from insiders, not clear what Idou is based on, probably 65nm U380 (OMAP3+EMP baseband) which still existed in January but not mentioned by ST-Ericsson at all in favour of 45nm U8500 Nomadik+Nokia baseband which comes later.

Idou is the Omap3 platform, IMG have been referring to the Idou....

"Imagination’s technology could be seen
in many new platforms at the show this
year. As well as appearing in the new
Samsung Omnia HD, Sony Ericcson Idou
and Palm Pre there were several......"

 

[wco81]

What no prognostications on the rumored tablet/netbook with multitouch?

 

[tangey]

What no prognostications on the rumored tablet/netbook with multitouch?

That *could* turn out to be what I conjectured for Q4 '09 (upsized iphone/itouch)

 

[Ike Turner]

http://www.engadget.com/2009/04/28/microsofts-pink-smartphone-could-rival-iphone-on-verizon/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124093915558664239.html (can't read the full article)

Who's willing to bet with me that it's just the HTC SuperStar (MS' reference design for Pink smartphone devices) ?
My humble opinion is that Pink is MS' new media platform : Zune+WM7+Marketplace+Xbox360 = Pink

 

[darkblu]

iTablet 3Q (read: 4Q) 09 @ ~$400
an iphone os device,
multitouch
2x Cortex A9 MP
SGX5xx,
same camera as the iphone of the day
802.11g/BT2

 

[Mike11]

iPhone 2Q09 @ ~$99
Same app processor as iPod Touch 2G
3.2MP with ISP - see product brief
Qualcomm MSM6290 Baseband
802.11g/BT2, unknown chip(s)

I tend to agree. But I think we'll see a SGX530 in that model (new GPU baseline).

iPhone 4Q09 @ ~$299
App processor with SGX & VXD for 1080p decode
5MP with ISP & BSI - see product brief
Qualcomm MSM6290 Baseband
802.11n/BT2/etc. BCM4329
AMOLED

Same app processor as above? Hm, I think just a higher clocked ARM11 and SGX540 plus VXD. And a little more RAM as in the iPhone3G, because of the exclusive video and high resolution picture features in this model, plus up to 64GB storage (2x32GB flash chips in this high-end iPhone, like the touch).

After SGX in 2009, Apple will directly switch to Cortex-A9MP and a new display resolution/size in 2010 for the high-end iPhone. So no Cortex for Apple in 2009.

 

[wco81]

iTablet 3Q (read: 4Q) 09 @ ~$400
an iphone os device,
multitouch
2x Cortex A9 MP
SGX5xx,
same camera as the iphone of the day
802.11g/BT2

That price seems uncharacteristically low from Apple. Especially if unsubsidized

 

[Mike11]

That price seems uncharacteristically low from Apple. Especially if unsubsidized

Well, the iPod touch starts at $229, so if the only hardware difference between this years next gen iPod touch and the iTablet is a bigger display (plus bigger battery and maybe more RAM because of the higher resolution), then $400 could be possible. But $499 seems more reasonable for me. If the iTablet is not just a bigger iPod touch and has a different SoC etc. then even $499 is too low.

 

[Laurent06]

3Q '10
Sony PSP2 Cortex A9 with multi-core SGX graphics.
Although, I'm starting to see some signs that sony may
bring out a PSP2 4Q '09 due to seeing how well the iphone
platform is doing. It is unclear how Sony will deal with
software compatiblity between current and next gen platforms.

I'd be interested to track where this rumor comes from

 

[Arun]

Wow, it's nice seeing all of you people with your hopes not yet crushed...
WRT the iPhone/iPod: the current version is 1,2 for the iPhone 3G and 2,1 for the iPod Touch 2G. How do you explain the existence of the following versions in various hacked files: iPhone 2,1; iPod 2,2; iPhone 3,1; iPod 3,1? If you can't explain that, it's difficult for me to understand how it could all make sense, heh.

I don't see how you could justify two new SoCs for 2009 (unless one was iTablet-only) or the next SKU in June being SGX-based unless it was announced at the same time as a new non-SGX one. And then you're incompatible with the Digitimes "3.2MP first, 5MP later" leak, which could be wrong I guess. As for the PSP2, 2H10 seems plausible (unlike 4Q09), but even that seems a tad optimistic. I definitely hope I'm wrong there and it thankfully seems likely I am.

Finally, wrt Verizon, I'd ignore everything you see on that front. The "cheap iPhone for Verizon" thing is nearly certainly bullshit. At best, it's random made up stuff. At worst, it's aimed at stock manipulation. So the MS stuff doesn't seem much more credible - and at best, what it would mean is that MS is trying to convince Verizon to have a Windows Mobile 7 ODM phone available at launch (April 2010 according to the latest leaks...) - which I think is kinda a given anyway, and they'd be talking with everyone about that and not just Verizon.

 

[tangey]

I'd be interested to track where this rumor comes from

http://www.engadget.com/2009/04/28/sony-unveiling-umd-less-psp-with-slide-out-buttons-at-e3/
http://www.pocketgamer.co.uk/r/PSP/Playstation+Portable+2/news.asp?c=12612

Additionally an acquiantence of mine has heard that a new PSP is being readied for launch. I do not know how accurate, if at all, that info is, and if true it is most likely a cosmetic refresh.


Personally, I don't think a major PSP hardware change will happen this year, unless they rush something due to a perceived threat from iphone (the itouch alone sold 3M units last quarter, iphone+itouch was 7M). IMO, it is reasonably certain that Sony has taken an SGX licence from IMG. But they havn't had enough time to use that licence.

Sorry for being OT.

 

[Mike11]

Wow, it's nice seeing all of you people with your hopes not yet crushed...
WRT the iPhone/iPod: the current version is 1,2 for the iPhone 3G and 2,1 for the iPod Touch 2G. How do you explain the existence of the following versions in various hacked files: iPhone 2,1; iPod 2,2; iPhone 3,1; iPod 3,1? If you can't explain that, it's difficult for me to understand how it could all make sense, heh.

I don't see how you could justify two new SoCs for 2009 (unless one was iTablet-only) or the next SKU in June being SGX-based unless it was announced at the same time as a new non-SGX one. And then you're incompatible with the Digitimes "3.2MP first, 5MP later" leak, which could be wrong I guess.

Hm, why can't the June iPhone (3.2MP) be SGX based?

Two SoCs for 2009:
One SGX-upgraded 2008 iPod Touch SoC for the $99 3.2MP June iPhone (iPhone 2,1) and the 2009 iPod touch (iPod 2,2). And the other SoC for the high-end (5MP) Q4 iPhone (iPhone 3,1) and the Q4 iTablet/iPod touch HD (iPod 3,1).

 

[Arun]

Okay, so, err - why was the iPhone 3G 1,2 and the iPod Touch 2G 2,1? The two main differences, AFAICT, are the application processor and the WiFi/Bluetooth chip. Surely the latter can't be such a big deal? Unless of course you are assuming Apple is using a senseless and confusing versioning system on purpose to further confuse everyone?

Frankly, I have yet to see someone in the press having a clue about this kind of thing, so I doubt Apple would bother doing that. But who knows...

 

[tangey]

I don't see how you could justify two new SoCs for 2009

My thoughts are that there will only be one new Soc in '09 used for multiple products, including the much speculated itablet ithingy

Okay, so, err - why was the iPhone 3G 1,2 and the iPod Touch 2G 2,1? The two main differences, AFAICT, are the application processor and the WiFi/Bluetooth chip.

Is it not just the case that the latest itouch is clocking the processor quicker as opposed to being a different app processor, allowed by the fact that the device doesn't have any telephony stuff to power. ?