IF: Blu Ray wins format war THEN: Sony laughs all the way to the bank?

What's not mentioned in all of this, is a denial of service attack on P2P sites by the industry. They've got the money, and it would not be hard for them to buy up enough bots around the net, offering up corrupt torrents. They could also hire massive numbers of indians to sit around and do nothing but write comments, reviews, and rankings on trackers on phony files, impersonating pirate groups, etc.
To me this always seemed like a much more logical way of dealing with piracy than what we saw with the RIAA suing individuals for using P2P. It really doesn't seem very difficult to write a program that could run on computers in the background, and they could pay users for it.

Just pollute the crap out of these networks and few will use them for illegal content. You only need a few hiccups or omission in the music/video to make it annoying, and detection becomes next to impossible. The amount of time you waste trying to find good sources wouldn't be worth the money saved by pirating.
 
So, which standalone HD-DVD and BR units can can take recordable BRD and HD-DVD discs with VC-1/H.264/MPEG2 rips burned on them and play them back?

All of them, with the caveat of the potential for BD+ and digital watermarking to defeat this. And in this case you would re-encode (maybe doing a VC-1 <-> H.264 conversion) and have a slightly degraded copy. As I said, once you get a raw, unprotected stream, you can do whatever you want with it. And I'm not talking about a bit for bit copy. I'm talking about talking the content off the disc and re-authoring a new disc. I'd be pretty surprised if the warez scene hasn't made the professional authoring packages available. Especially with all the references on doom9 I've seen to Sonic Scenarist which IIRC is a $5000 package at retail.
 
IF: Blu Ray wins format war THEN: Sony laughs all the way to the bank?

isn't this obvious (not being cocky :devilish:)??? what would sony lose if they won the format war???
 
All of them, with the caveat of the potential for BD+ and digital watermarking to defeat this. And in this case you would re-encode (maybe doing a VC-1 <-> H.264 conversion) and have a slightly degraded copy. As I said, once you get a raw, unprotected stream, you can do whatever you want with it. And I'm not talking about a bit for bit copy. I'm talking about talking the content off the disc and re-authoring a new disc. I'd be pretty surprised if the warez scene hasn't made the professional authoring packages available. Especially with all the references on doom9 I've seen to Sonic Scenarist which IIRC is a $5000 package at retail.

"Scene" releases use everything from CCE to Sonic Scenerist to create Downsampled releases on SL-DVD. There is a good chance there will be HD-DVD on DVD9 done the same way (720p instead of 1080p?) . And surely there will be SL HD-DVD releases downsampled. The door is open, HD will be pirated both for profit and for "fun".

And on the other subject about defeating pirates. It can not be stopped by "bots" or "pollution" etc etc it´s very naive to think that: 1) it hasn´t been tried. 2) it worked. Real widespread "attacks" from the imdustry with "bots" will just result in alot of angry ISP´s. The industry can´t use the same illegal weapons that the underground does, it will backfire and just not work.
 
Don't forget, the pirates haven't broken the burnt-in error blocks (BD-Mark or somesuch). They can rip movies, but if the players are sensible it'll question AACS protected content on an un-offical disk. At the moment, we are seeing people break AACS based on a software bug which allows access to the device key for decryption. This will be hidden better, it's plain-text (which is not forbidden by AACS) in memory.. watch the obfuscation patching battle commence.
 
Don't forget, the pirates haven't broken the burnt-in error blocks (BD-Mark or somesuch). They can rip movies, but if the players are sensible it'll question AACS protected content on an un-offical disk. At the moment, we are seeing people break AACS based on a software bug which allows access to the device key for decryption. This will be hidden better, it's plain-text (which is not forbidden by AACS) in memory.. watch the obfuscation patching battle commence.

It should also be noted that they aren't really 'breaking' AACS, but simply reading keys from a software player using a debugger.
 
"Scene" releases use everything from CCE to Sonic Scenerist to create Downsampled releases on SL-DVD. There is a good chance there will be HD-DVD on DVD9 done the same way (720p instead of 1080p?) . And surely there will be SL HD-DVD releases downsampled. The door is open, HD will be pirated both for profit and for "fun".

Indeed. And in the case of VC-1 or H.264 the bitrate that you can fit on a DVD9 gets you at least the quality of (US) broadcast HDTV. Good enough for most, though noticeably below what you can get on one of the new formats.
 
I'm interested in how robust the watermarking is. Can it really withstand reencoding? How about some post-processing like adding a touch of imperceptible noise or delays? It seems impossible, but I'm not well versed in this area.
 
From what I understand, the watermarks even survive recording on shaky cams. Some of them are stegnographically hidden in the datastream masquerading as low-order bits or errors in the special frequency domain, some of them are encoded uses temporal and spacial warps, which even survive large scale decimation, filtering, etc. There have been papers how global frequency domain techniques can effectively hide phenomena that is practically impossible to detect unless you know what you're looking for. Think of it like spread-spectrum or UWB where distinguishing a watermark essentially requires a secret one-time-pad.
 
In the security and cryptography profession, BackupHDDVD would be a side-channel attack, not a crack. Even social engineering is a side channel attack. If I tricked someone at AACS on the telephone into emailing me their complete database, it would not constitute a crack in the technical sense.

DeCSS was a crack, because once they obtained the keys, all content every published or will be published, was cracked, forever, globally, independent of device, and there was no way to revoke or renew anything. The side channel attacks being done on AACS are not the same, and unlikely to be permanent. Instead, they'll be part of an arms race between people attacking physical implementations, and the industry responding.
 
In the security and cryptography profession, BackupHDDVD would be a side-channel attack, not a crack. Even social engineering is a side channel attack. If I tricked someone at AACS on the telephone into emailing me their complete database, it would not constitute a crack in the technical sense.

DeCSS was a crack, because once they obtained the keys, all content every published or will be published, was cracked, forever, globally, independent of device, and there was no way to revoke or renew anything. The side channel attacks being done on AACS are not the same, and unlikely to be permanent. Instead, they'll be part of an arms race between people attacking physical implementations, and the industry responding.

Well

http://www.boingboing.net/2007/02/13/bluray_and_hddvd_bro.html

Looks like the race is over?
 
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