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Scientists foresee the end of the earth
Authors say our planet’s long-term fate is to ‘fry and dry’
May 12 — In 2000, paleontologist Peter D. Ward and astronomer Donald Brownlee argued persuasively in their book “Rare Earth” that life in all its complexity found on Earth is most likely a cosmic aberration, a unique circumstance that — if their theory is true — dashes the hopes of sci-fi fans and extraterrestrial hunters everywhere. This year, the authors returned with an analysis of Earth’s far-flung future that is as bleak as humanity’s chances of meeting E.T.s, intelligent or otherwise.
“THE LIFE and Death of Planet Earth” sees Earth slipping towards another ice age with dwindling natural resources, drastic environmental changes and eventually a suffocating death.
Perfect for summer reading, we say!
Co-author Donald Brownlee took the time to answer a few of Space.com’s questions about his latest book.
Space.com: The bottom line: Will we ultimately freeze, fry or just dry out?
Brownlee: We may “freeze” again in the future as we have in the past. This could be as severe as another “Snowball Earth” episode, or it could just be a continuation of glacial-interglacial cycles. On the long term, the fate is “fry and dry.” The sun continuously gets hotter, and its heat ultimately melts the earth’s surface — and worse.
In the grand scheme, will human activity alter Earth’s ultimate fate?
Humans have great effects on the short term (global warming, species extinction, etc.) but it is not likely that we can play an significant role in the main events that will change Earth on long time scales. These events include the merging of the continents (again), decline of CO2 below levels required to support plant life, the loss of the oceans to space and our planet being swallowed by the sun. Human intervention on these effects would require engineering on a incredible scale. The ultimate fate of Earth is determined by the ever-increasing brightness of the sun — a natural and unstoppable process.
Is there anything we can do to escape Earth’s fate? Maybe move it, or move us?
In the book we discuss ideas for moving Earth outwards as the sun gets brighter. As difficult as it seems, this is perhaps more likely than human migration to other planetary systems. It is the natural cycle of planets with life that they are ultimately are done in by their “life-supporting” star. Habitable planets have to form close to a star to have the right conditions to have surface water. Over time, all stars become brighter and the “habitable zone” moves outward, leaving the planet too hot for surface water.
Yesterday was pretty tough here on Earth. Tomorrow probably won’t be a picnic. Why worry about what’s going to happen in a few billion years?
We should not “worry” about things that happen millions of years beyond our lifetimes, but it is important that we know how nature (and our planet) works. We benefit greatly from knowledge of nature and natural processes. Even simply knowing that the earth is not flat and that we are not at the center of the universe greatly benefits our daily lives (GPS, weather satellites, etc.) in an enormous number of ways. By understanding the full cycle of planets, how they are born, evolve and ultimately die, we can better understand and appreciated our role in the cosmos.
What are the advantages to being able to predict the earth’s end?
For a person with a terminal disease, diagnosis is the first step to extending life, and improving its quality. The same is true for our planet. Knowing our problems gives us the ability to attempt a cure, or at least to put off the various ends of the earth, and of humanity.
Two variables, above all others, will control the destiny not only of life on Earth, but also, ultimately, of the planet itself. The first is the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This greenhouse gas helps regulate our world’s temperature, and our planet is extraordinary in the systems it has to balance that greenhouse gas with incoming radiation.
The second system, and ultimately a far more important variable, is the amount of solar energy hitting our planet. The sun’s output level is changing over time. Mathematical modeling allows us to predict what these levels will be in the far future, and what their effects will be — and it doesn’t look good.
What most upsets you about science or scientists?
I love science and think that it is critical to our well being and future. Perhaps the most upsetting thing is the level of scientific illiteracy in the United States. My son in college is required to do four semesters on philosophy but only one on science. Everyone depends on science and understanding the natural world, but it is not stressed in schools. Only a tiny fraction of high school students take physics — the most fundamental of all of the sciences.
What is the most beautiful aspect to space?
Much of astronomy is beautiful images of planets, moons, asteroids, comets, sections of meteorites and lunar rocks, microscope images of extraterrestrial material and fabulous telescope images of many astronomical objects outside the solar system.
If you controlled a $1 billion foundation, what research effort would you fund?
A sample return mission from a comet.
University of Washington astronomer Donald Brownlee is the principal investigator for NASA's Stardust mission, which aims to bring cometary samples back to Earth. Brownlee holds a model of the Stardust spacecraft.
Why should we spend money on space exploration over research into deadly diseases? We can and should do both. Advances in science and understanding of nature are not always made by planned and directed programs such as the “war on cancer.” History has shown that many great breakthroughs (i.e., X-rays and even the Internet) come come from unexpected directions. Understanding the universe was the historical foundation of modern science, and it is still the leading edge of knowledge of the fundamental workings of nature. The recently announced results from the WMAP spacecraft are some of the most fundamental discoveries of our time.
What is the most vexing question in modern science?
The most vexing question will certainly depend on whom you ask. Personally, I would like to know how Earthlike planets form and what fraction are fully Earthlike in the sense that that could support animal life. My No. 1 near-term question is whether there is or was life in the solar system other than on earth. My guess is yes.
Scientists foresee the end of the earth
Authors say our planet’s long-term fate is to ‘fry and dry’
May 12 — In 2000, paleontologist Peter D. Ward and astronomer Donald Brownlee argued persuasively in their book “Rare Earth” that life in all its complexity found on Earth is most likely a cosmic aberration, a unique circumstance that — if their theory is true — dashes the hopes of sci-fi fans and extraterrestrial hunters everywhere. This year, the authors returned with an analysis of Earth’s far-flung future that is as bleak as humanity’s chances of meeting E.T.s, intelligent or otherwise.
“THE LIFE and Death of Planet Earth” sees Earth slipping towards another ice age with dwindling natural resources, drastic environmental changes and eventually a suffocating death.
Perfect for summer reading, we say!
Co-author Donald Brownlee took the time to answer a few of Space.com’s questions about his latest book.
Space.com: The bottom line: Will we ultimately freeze, fry or just dry out?
Brownlee: We may “freeze” again in the future as we have in the past. This could be as severe as another “Snowball Earth” episode, or it could just be a continuation of glacial-interglacial cycles. On the long term, the fate is “fry and dry.” The sun continuously gets hotter, and its heat ultimately melts the earth’s surface — and worse.
In the grand scheme, will human activity alter Earth’s ultimate fate?
Humans have great effects on the short term (global warming, species extinction, etc.) but it is not likely that we can play an significant role in the main events that will change Earth on long time scales. These events include the merging of the continents (again), decline of CO2 below levels required to support plant life, the loss of the oceans to space and our planet being swallowed by the sun. Human intervention on these effects would require engineering on a incredible scale. The ultimate fate of Earth is determined by the ever-increasing brightness of the sun — a natural and unstoppable process.
Is there anything we can do to escape Earth’s fate? Maybe move it, or move us?
In the book we discuss ideas for moving Earth outwards as the sun gets brighter. As difficult as it seems, this is perhaps more likely than human migration to other planetary systems. It is the natural cycle of planets with life that they are ultimately are done in by their “life-supporting” star. Habitable planets have to form close to a star to have the right conditions to have surface water. Over time, all stars become brighter and the “habitable zone” moves outward, leaving the planet too hot for surface water.
Yesterday was pretty tough here on Earth. Tomorrow probably won’t be a picnic. Why worry about what’s going to happen in a few billion years?
We should not “worry” about things that happen millions of years beyond our lifetimes, but it is important that we know how nature (and our planet) works. We benefit greatly from knowledge of nature and natural processes. Even simply knowing that the earth is not flat and that we are not at the center of the universe greatly benefits our daily lives (GPS, weather satellites, etc.) in an enormous number of ways. By understanding the full cycle of planets, how they are born, evolve and ultimately die, we can better understand and appreciated our role in the cosmos.
What are the advantages to being able to predict the earth’s end?
For a person with a terminal disease, diagnosis is the first step to extending life, and improving its quality. The same is true for our planet. Knowing our problems gives us the ability to attempt a cure, or at least to put off the various ends of the earth, and of humanity.
Two variables, above all others, will control the destiny not only of life on Earth, but also, ultimately, of the planet itself. The first is the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This greenhouse gas helps regulate our world’s temperature, and our planet is extraordinary in the systems it has to balance that greenhouse gas with incoming radiation.
The second system, and ultimately a far more important variable, is the amount of solar energy hitting our planet. The sun’s output level is changing over time. Mathematical modeling allows us to predict what these levels will be in the far future, and what their effects will be — and it doesn’t look good.
What most upsets you about science or scientists?
I love science and think that it is critical to our well being and future. Perhaps the most upsetting thing is the level of scientific illiteracy in the United States. My son in college is required to do four semesters on philosophy but only one on science. Everyone depends on science and understanding the natural world, but it is not stressed in schools. Only a tiny fraction of high school students take physics — the most fundamental of all of the sciences.
What is the most beautiful aspect to space?
Much of astronomy is beautiful images of planets, moons, asteroids, comets, sections of meteorites and lunar rocks, microscope images of extraterrestrial material and fabulous telescope images of many astronomical objects outside the solar system.
If you controlled a $1 billion foundation, what research effort would you fund?
A sample return mission from a comet.
University of Washington astronomer Donald Brownlee is the principal investigator for NASA's Stardust mission, which aims to bring cometary samples back to Earth. Brownlee holds a model of the Stardust spacecraft.
Why should we spend money on space exploration over research into deadly diseases? We can and should do both. Advances in science and understanding of nature are not always made by planned and directed programs such as the “war on cancer.” History has shown that many great breakthroughs (i.e., X-rays and even the Internet) come come from unexpected directions. Understanding the universe was the historical foundation of modern science, and it is still the leading edge of knowledge of the fundamental workings of nature. The recently announced results from the WMAP spacecraft are some of the most fundamental discoveries of our time.
What is the most vexing question in modern science?
The most vexing question will certainly depend on whom you ask. Personally, I would like to know how Earthlike planets form and what fraction are fully Earthlike in the sense that that could support animal life. My No. 1 near-term question is whether there is or was life in the solar system other than on earth. My guess is yes.
