Graphics Chip 3rd Quarter Numbers

[Psycho]

Q3 discrete: http://www.jonpeddie.com/special/AIBReport.shtml
Waiting for some news site to pay up and tell more than we can read on that page

 

[rendezvous]

Q3 discrete: http://www.jonpeddie.com/special/AIBReport.shtml
Waiting for some news site to pay up and tell more than we can read on that page

According to CNet AMD grew their market share from 35% to 40%.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-10094697-64.html

 

[Jawed]

Year on year revenue for the market's add in boards as a whole was down 27%, while shipments were down 15.2%. I reckon that's a 14% decline in ASPs for AIBs.

Jawed

 

[Jawed]

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/...vidia_in_Desktop_Discrete_Market_Segment.html

Nice graph.

That shows ASPs down ~32% year on year.

Jawed

 

[rjc]

NV sells the produced and packaged ASICs directly to their AIBs, effectively making them their customers. Since Jen-Hsun stated himself that on the high-end all they are shipping now is 55nm, we can all pretty much put those INQ rumours to rest.

Ah ok, i am sure i read somewhere that they also design a reference board and subcontract flextronics or foxconn to manufacture it then basically send out the completed cards for the AIBs to sticker and put in boxes.

Seems strange that not a single working 55nm gtx2X0 has showed up in public yet. They better get a move on if they want any sales before christmas, selling it only in jan is going to make this years Q4 numbers look pretty bad in comparison to last year when the 8800gt seemed to do really well for them.

The 9800 GTX and the 9800 GTX+ have a 12-layer PCB.

They won´t save much, if any, since NV will also clock them higher and wants some headroom for that.

So their 55nm lineup roughly will be:
GTX2X0 448/512bit 14 layer dual slot cooler
9800GTX+ / 256 bit 12 layer dual slot cooler
9800GT / 256bit 10 and 6 layer single slot cooler
9600GT / 256bit 6 layer single slot cooler
9500gt /128bit 6 layer single and passive coolers

And that's through to when 40 nm arrives. I saw recently that altera was claiming to be the lead customer for that and are planning to have 40nm FPGAs available in may next year. So the above has got to last at least 6months?

 

[rjc]

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/...vidia_in_Desktop_Discrete_Market_Segment.html

Nice graph.

That shows ASPs down ~32% year on year.

It's interesting looking at the 2 overlaid graphs how much the ASPs vary but how relatively stable the units sold are.

Looking at the way the volumes and ASPs are trending, looks like it will be difficult, to say the least, to maintain current margins. Its really hard seeing the volume changing much at all. So that leaves an ASP increase or selling lower cost products to the high end users.

Repeatedly in the nvidia conference call the CEO talked about winning back market share in the performance and enthusiast segment, i guess he means at least 70% market share so that the company can lead in pricing more. That looks like a herculean task at the moment and the rewards far from guaranteed - if it takes a year to get back to 70%, by then ASPs may be down in the low mid $100s

Found some summary figures for Q3 for mercury research here. Interesting as good as amd's desktop third quarter was, they still sold less units than this time last year. As for JPR big increase in notebook.

 

[rjc]

And that's through to when 40 nm arrives. I saw recently that altera was claiming to be the lead customer for that and are planning to have 40nm FPGAs available in may next year. So the above has got to last at least 6months?

Just to follow up my own post, i found a more aggressive timetable here:
Nvidia plans to have its high-end GT216 chips made using 40-nm process next quarter, as does AMD-ATI, which is working on its high-performance RV870 chip designed on 40-nm rule.
Telecom-chip designers including Altera, Broadcom, Marvell, Netlogic and LSI are planning to use 40-nm process to make chips in the second quarter next year.

They seem to have leapfrogged altera. They have moved their 40nm ahead a quarter, and starting with highend chips?

If the above is true, signs of courage or of desperation?