Future of graphics technology = synthetic brains? *spawn

Rangers

Legend
Tim Sweeney says there's lots of graphics headroom left http://www.gamespot.com/unreal-1990/videos/tim-sweeney-dice-2012-session-6350144/

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This is just to buttress my philosophy we need heavy duty next gen specs.
 
Really interesting!

Good enough means:
8000*4000*72fps*2 Mflops/pixel = 5 Petaflops

Keeping the current trend of advancement, it's achievable within 15-20 years.

I think it was also an hint of what to expect by next-generation: 2-2.5 Teraflops
 
five petaflops... with moore's law shortcomings regarding to power, I'm picturing a multi-kilowatt console with generator included, where you will pour gasoline in.
 
five petaflops... with moore's law shortcomings regarding to power, I'm picturing a multi-kilowatt console with generator included, where you will pour gasoline in.

Giving that we are talking about a many-years frame, you just need to wait for 2 more process shrink (4ys) and there you have your 100W 5Tp GPUs.

Looking 20 years ahead in the future it's tought. 20 years ago it was 1992. The fastest supercomputer on the planet was much slower than an average gaming pc.
 
Really interesting!

Good enough means:
8000*4000*72fps*2 Mflops/pixel = 5 Petaflops

Keeping the current trend of advancement, it's achievable within 15-20 years.

I think it was also an hint of what to expect by next-generation: 2-2.5 Teraflops

That's approximately half the brain's estimated performance.

five petaflops... with moore's law shortcomings regarding to power, I'm picturing a multi-kilowatt console with generator included, where you will pour gasoline in.
10 Petaflops estimated performance under 20w. The brain shows it can be done.

Though it is my opinion that eventually 3 dimensional processors will not be stacked-up chips made in facilities costing 10s of Billions of dollars(that may be an intermediary step.). But they will eventually be grown virtually for free using advanced synthetic biology. Thus the critical vulnerability of the human-civilization towards disaster will be drastically minimized, allowing for quick complete restoration in any adverse eventuality.
 
The brain doesn't work in floating point calculations. I'm not sure anyone can perform a single FMADD in a second on anything but the most rudimentary of numbers. There's probably a svant out there who can. And if 5 TFlops is all it takes to get human brain power, the world's supercomputers outstripped humanbeings a long time ago.
 
The brain doesn't work in floating point calculations. I'm not sure anyone can perform a single FMADD in a second on anything but the most rudimentary of numbers. There's probably a svant out there who can. And if 5 TFlops is all it takes to get human brain power, the world's supercomputers outstripped humanbeings a long time ago.

Offcourse, you cannot do those operations in a conscious way. The "Flops", but better say number of operation per second he is referring to, it's a "guess" of what kind of computability power has the visual cortex to achieve our wonderful pattern recognition capabilities. Giving that, and the number of neurons the brain has, they guesstimate the computational capability of the brain in a range between 1 PetaOps and 1 ExaOps.
But it's of fundamental importance to understand the architecture of the brain, and that is still few decades away.
 
That's approximately half the brain's estimated performance.


10 Petaflops estimated performance under 20w. The brain shows it can be done.

Though it is my opinion that eventually 3 dimensional processors will not be stacked-up chips made in facilities costing 10s of Billions of dollars(that may be an intermediary step.). But they will eventually be grown virtually for free using advanced synthetic biology. Thus the critical vulnerability of the human-civilization towards disaster will be drastically minimized, allowing for quick complete restoration in any adverse eventuality.


That's unlikely to happen for many and many years. Nanotechnology and synthetic biology are just at the beginning. We are about where we were in the 1960s with computers.
We will get there, but it won't be a technology that chips will use in the next 20 years.
 
The brain doesn't work in floating point calculations. I'm not sure anyone can perform a single FMADD in a second on anything but the most rudimentary of numbers. There's probably a svant out there who can. And if 5 TFlops is all it takes to get human brain power, the world's supercomputers outstripped humanbeings a long time ago.

not 5Tflops, it's 5000Tflops or 5 petaflops. Still it is true supercomputers have passed this performance this decade.

Though that is one estimate there are higher and lower, as mentioned earlier.

Keep in mind that mental visualization vary between individuals, and some say they have indistinguishable from open eyes vivid visualization and memories.(implies photorealistic imagery in realtime, fractions of a second...)

Some savant are also able to recreate virtual photorealistic detail from memory.

That's unlikely to happen for many and many years. Nanotechnology and synthetic biology are just at the beginning. We are about where we were in the 1960s with computers.
We will get there, but it won't be a technology that chips will use in the next 20 years.
Well I did say eventually.

I would expect it in the latter half of the century, assuming no disruptive tech, that is barring anyone cracks general intelligence...
 
not 5Tflops, it's 5000Tflops or 5 petaflops. Still it is true supercomputers have passed this performance this decade.
Let's not forget the size and power draw of those installations. It's going to take more than several iterations of Moore's Law to make those physically small enough to be considered for consumer use.

Aside from raw computational power, they're optimized for large jobs, not interactivity. Some kinds of computation runs take days to weeks to complete.

Keep in mind that mental visualization vary between individuals, and some say they have indistinguishable from open eyes vivid visualization and memories.(implies photorealistic imagery in realtime, fractions of a second...)
The human mind and the human eye do a lot to fool themselves.
Nobody is able to pixel-count visual recall, and that process is all about the re-creation of the feeling that you are seeing something in detail. Recall is also decidedly non-interactive, and we have game consoles that can play movies already.
 
not 5Tflops, it's 5000Tflops or 5 petaflops. Still it is true supercomputers have passed this performance this decade.

Though that is one estimate there are higher and lower, as mentioned earlier.

Keep in mind that mental visualization vary between individuals, and some say they have indistinguishable from open eyes vivid visualization and memories.(implies photorealistic imagery in realtime, fractions of a second...)

Some savant are also able to recreate virtual photorealistic detail from memory.

That's not simulation or rendering of 3D scene, it's just to recollect and eventually to adapt the thousands of images we have stored in our memories. And even that it's not based on pixel, but on other "features".
Brains are nothing like a processor or a Von Neumann machine.
 
Let's not forget the size and power draw of those installations. It's going to take more than several iterations of Moore's Law to make those physically small enough to be considered for consumer use.

Aside from raw computational power, they're optimized for large jobs, not interactivity. Some kinds of computation runs take days to weeks to complete.


The human mind and the human eye do a lot to fool themselves.
Nobody is able to pixel-count visual recall, and that process is all about the re-creation of the feeling that you are seeing something in detail. Recall is also decidedly non-interactive, and we have game consoles that can play movies already.

There are savant painters that can recreate highly detailed scenes to which they've been briefly exposed to. Assuming one such happened to have the vivid-form of working memory he'd have both the detail as well as the vividness.

Precision down even to the number of windows in random buildings.

Note that while this is in painting, it is said that in music there have been savant that need hear only once to perfectly play the music in the given instrument. In terms of text 3 second exposure to 2 pages and apparently all lines and word position may be recalled.

That's not simulation or rendering of 3D scene, it's just to recollect and eventually to adapt the thousands of images we have stored in our memories. And even that it's not based on pixel, but on other "features".

Yet put a precise enough high resolution neural interface in place and I would suggest some individuals would provide data that can be reconstructed into highly accurate 2d scenes.

While the savant may not have the artistic training of a professional, it is not impossible to imagine that the combination of both can potentially coexist such that the photorealistic artist of which there are many, would be able to picture high detail photorealistic images in short order like the savant of which there are few.

Provide a good high resolution neural interface and this could be output directly to a monitor.

What's more exciting is whether such architectures can be instantiated on more efficient substrates. We know that moving from axon to optical fiber we gain a 2.5+M speed up in information transmission. Likewise moving from chemical synapse gap diffusion to solid-state processing yields immense speed-up(2.5M? too, less, more?). The question remains whether the other processing steps can be likewise sped up to such a degree.... if they can be sped up, a synthetic biology brain could potentially have 2.5+M the processing capacity of the human brain... 250M Petaflops = 250,000 Exaflops = 250 Zettaflops

In a single second a subjective month would go by for such a synthetic brain.

Brains are nothing like a processor or a Von Neumann machine.

As long as their computational capabilities do not go beyond turing complete machines, their function can be translated and run on traditional machines provided sufficient memory.
 
I understand that, which I thought/hoped my posts should have shown.

Also considering the 580 was was not really blown away by the 7970 stock) in some benchmarks, and held its own in other tests, I'd be left to believe there was no improvement in efficiency with Tahiti continuing the trend of AMD/ATi GPUs still not doing well with utilization.

Much of the die budget in Tahiti went into making the core more processing flexible (GPGPU) and modularly scalable.

Prior to GCN, AMD was doing much better in utilization/efficiency than Nvidia in performance per mm2. But now that they are both GPGPU centric designs, that AMD advantage is gone. Should be interesting to see how Keplar stands up to GCN.
 
Yet put a precise enough high resolution neural interface in place and I would suggest some individuals would provide data that can be reconstructed into highly accurate 2d scenes.

While the savant may not have the artistic training of a professional, it is not impossible to imagine that the combination of both can potentially coexist such that the photorealistic artist of which there are many, would be able to picture high detail photorealistic images in short order like the savant of which there are few.

Provide a good high resolution neural interface and this could be output directly to a monitor.
So you're predicting next gen tech to be powered by cloned savant brains? ;)

This is very OT now.
 
So you're predicting next gen tech to be powered by cloned savant brains? ;)

This is very OT now.

woah there. I didn't say nextgen, I said eventually. And it wouldn't be cloned savants, one would assume a design from the ground up should be able to eventually match or exceed savant performance. If the hypothesized changes can be made in a synthetic biology design, the possible performance would skyrocket.

This is in line with the mentioned idea that we still could see Moore's law or something similar going on for decades or centuries.

It also addresses the viability of high performance within severe energy constraints of future computing platforms.

A quote from ibm researchers
"The human brain is 10,000 times more dense and efficient than any computer today."-Bruno Michel, IBM's Zurich Research Laboratory Switzerland.

PS
edit
It also adddresses rate of progress. When and if eventually the hypothesized synthetic brain becomes possible, even limiting it to human designs one can see what happens when a team of 100s such engineers experiences 3 years of subjective time in about half a minute, and several thousand subjective years in a single day.. All of a sudden the multi-year design involving 100s of engineers of a gpu or cpu can be accomplished in less than an hour. The same would also apply to game creation, entire high production value games could be created in less than an hour.
 
There are savant painters that can recreate highly detailed scenes to which they've been briefly exposed to. Assuming one such happened to have the vivid-form of working memory he'd have both the detail as well as the vividness.
The work may be detailed, for an object of art, but that does not mean it is accurate. At present, we are physically incapable of analysing the fidelity and resolution of the recollection.

Note that while this is in painting, it is said that in music there have been savant that need hear only once to perfectly play the music in the given instrument. In terms of text 3 second exposure to 2 pages and apparently all lines and word position may be recalled.
The recollection of a savant in playing music is to a computer reproduction as a MIDI file is to a raw format.
It is not computationally equivalent. There is a significant amount of symbolic compression, and we then gloss over the actual physical differences between the original and the reproduction because it is an impressive act for a human.


Yet put a precise enough high resolution neural interface in place and I would suggest some individuals would provide data that can be reconstructed into highly accurate 2d scenes.
I think we'd find interesting neural artifacts and innaccuracies.
 
PS
edit
It also adddresses rate of progress. When and if eventually the hypothesized synthetic brain becomes possible, even limiting it to human designs one can see what happens when a team of 100s such engineers experiences 3 years of subjective time in about half a minute, and several thousand subjective years in a single day.. All of a sudden the multi-year design involving 100s of engineers of a gpu or cpu can be accomplished in less than an hour. The same would also apply to game creation, entire high production value games could be created in less than an hour.

It's true, but it doesn't mean it will speed up the Moore Law, or in general the progress rate.
For example, it's more than 2-3 decades that computer chips are build using the help of older-generation chips. A team of engineers will need many years to just lay down in details the project of a modern chip using 1950s equipment only.
What I mean, it's that by the time artificial intelligence and advance syntetic biology become real, processor will have become so complex that you will need just those technology to keep the current rate of progress.
 
I think we'd find interesting neural artifacts and innaccuracies.
It is said that the high res fovea is equivalent to a dime's size at arm's length, the perceived image is a virtual reconstruction from several low res feeds from the eyes. Yet what we perceive appears to be quite high in detail as evidenced by discimination studies, this all relies in the internal reconstruction in visual memory.... all perceived detail must fit in such memory.

IT would be interesting to note what sort of inaccuracies can occur, we can assume that a professional can use tricks of the trade learned to visualize something pretty much indistinguishable from real... as some painters compare the final product with their mental image to see if they're satisfied, and the final product may pass for photoreal.

When it comes to numerical computation it is known that precision can occur to dozens of digits in decimal calculation within a few seconds. Given more time precision can go towards far more digits.

It's true, but it doesn't mean it will speed up the Moore Law, or in general the progress rate.
For example, it's more than 2-3 decades that computer chips are build using the help of older-generation chips. A team of engineers will need many years to just lay down in details the project of a modern chip using 1950s equipment only.
What I mean, it's that by the time artificial intelligence and advance syntetic biology become real, processor will have become so complex that you will need just those technology to keep the current rate of progress.

At that speed a day is equivalent to thousands of years. We can also assume brain-like computers keeping up to a point with the accelerated time in the simulation and serving as tools for the engineers(As the engineers themselves employ hypothetical-synthetic-brains, they are subjectively within simulated space, thus they experience more than 5000 years of subjective time per day.).

Evidence from some fields suggests there exists a maximal level of possible complexity. Complexity lies between total order and total randomness.
 
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His remarks about virtual economies describe a model that doesn't sound sustainable at all; a massive, purely virtual economy sounds totally degenerate if it's just meant for consumption rather than the advancement of something higher.

For one thing, it sounds like it would require stringent DRM to enforce the notion of digital property which in the long run will always be an hindrance to the flow of ideas and goods. If anything, cyberspace is a ultimately chance to free ourselves from the notion of property, which as an instinct evolved from the need to manage scarcity in the real world. Instead, computers allow us to operate more on the basis of reputation and good will. I see options like Humble-bundle and fan based financing for gaming eventually overtaking large, mostly profit-driven companies.

But perhaps more importantly, Sweeney seems to place a large value (the size of the real-estate market) on teasing human senses in some empty way using sold virtual products. This is a definite step backward from more transcendent goals such as mastery of our environment and ourselves; we would instead be miring ourselves back in the muck of addiction and desire. At some point, we'll realize that we're too bound by our needs in the real world to waste so much time and money on empty virtual goods. This maybe an important sort of natural selection for aware minds in the coming centuries.
 
His remarks about virtual economies describe a model that doesn't sound sustainable at all; a massive, purely virtual economy sounds totally degenerate if it's just meant for consumption rather than the advancement of something higher.

This is not how our world works. Economies are all about providing needs, and there is no far distant purpose on them. What about entertainment economy? On this topic, I find this quote remarkable:
http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/show/75681
And also.. How can you draw the border, between entertainment and arts?
 
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