Heh with so many guys from Netherlands, I thought someone would have got pissed about my previous post
I already won the bet with my friend (Spain vs Brazil), so I wouldn't mind if Netherlands win, I just don't see it happening... Well hopefully it's a good game
Quite a lot of big names predicting the win for Spain tomorrow, suggesting that they will dominate the field and pointing to the fact that in the last decade Spain won 70% of its matches, not to mention the European championship in 2008.
While I agree that makes them favorites, looking at the last 25 matches of these two teams shows a different picture. I reiterate that Spain has a scoring problem. And why did they finish equal with Chili in group H? Because they lost a match. Brasil was better than Portugal, better than Germany (Germany equally failed to score maximum points in group D, although at least they did win it), better than Paraguay surely - they needed penalties against Japan, which while underrated, were beaten by Holland. They swept the floor with Chili, who finished equal to Spain in group H. The only reason that we won from Brasil was that we do manage to pressure the ball into the net. We have a lot of very intelligent players and all of them excel at their clubs during the year, and all of these clubs are high up the ladder.
I'm not at all saying that the Dutch team is better than the Spanish team, but they both have strengths and weaknesses, and neither of them is a favorite unless you go by name alone, but by that definition France, England, Italy and even Argentinia were great teams also. Which they really weren't, imho. Nor were their opponents 'underrated'.
Right now the Dutch team themselves are very weary of Spain's field play - they know Spain, when given too much space either by being too offensive or too defensive, will totally dominate you on the field. They've seen Germany fail however by being too cautious, and I'm going to assume they don't make that same mistake. I think if the Dutch are aggressive enough, they may be able to hold their own in the field - they're really great at putting pressure on the ball and winning possession, and I think they may even equal Spain there. I'd say it's best for them to err on the side of offense, because when it comes down to it, the chances that Holland scores more goals than Spain when both teams play aggressively are pretty good.
I'm banking on the Netherlands this time, as long as they can hold their nerves and Spain doesn't find a way to score more than just one goal at the last minute, they can do it. They were decent enough in 2008, learnt valuable lessons and had a great run-up right up to this final (again, undefeated for over 25 matches straight). They're my favorites this time. And just because I'm Dutch, by the way, doesn't mean anything in this case ... I managed to go into a pub in Amsterdam for the quarter finals against Italy a few cups back wearing an official Italian team shirt.