Fewer PS3s this year than previously claimed.

[bkilian]

I was reading this Kaz Hirai interview and something struck me as different. I got to the part where he says

I think that we've always talked about shipping 2 million units worldwide within the calendar year. Since we're going with three territories, we haven't really come up with an allocation just yet. But even if you do the simple math you're talking about less than 700,000 units per territory, per major territory, between launch and the end of the year.

So they "always talked about" shipping 2 million units by end of year 2006. Wait that can't be right? I thought it was 2 million at launch and another 2 million by the end of year.
Where would they have said this? Oh, right, E3. Scroll down to 6:43 and 6:45.

It appears that
a) we've once again caught Kaz in a lie. They didn't "always talk about" only 2 million consoles by end of year. In one careful statement he halved the original shipment numbers, and
b) you should probably get your pre-order in soon if you want to be playing on a PS3 come christmas.

Interesting interview anyway

 

[Acert93]

Man, I really should get a pre-order. Some serious cash to be made! Where is the best place to preorder one? :smile:

 

[expletive]

Man, I really should get a pre-order. Some serious cash to be made! Where is the best place to preorder one? :smile:

Nowhere that i could find in North America...

 

[inefficient]

GS: So is the PS3 already being manufactured?

KH: We haven't started manufacturing yet. Some of our ops guys were actually just in China, and also in Japan just reviewing the [production] lines and everything else. But they are, again, preparing as we speak to get the manufacturing going.

Get started already!

 

[TrungGap]

Hmm, maybe he misspoke? Now, if the lastest interview is accurate, then I guess all those rumors for production issues could be the reason behind 4 million down to 2 million. Wow, that's a lot off projection there.

So what do think it might be? Bluray or Cell?

Edit: or maybe they just don't want to produce too many at the current cost. But they would have figured out that out when they announced the price of the PS3....something went terribly wrong here....

 

[AlNom]

Cell sure is a big chip.

 

[Sis]

GS: So is the PS3 already being manufactured?

KH: We haven't started manufacturing yet. Some of our ops guys were actually just in China, and also in Japan just reviewing the [production] lines and everything else. But they are, again, preparing as we speak to get the manufacturing going.

Get started already!

When is the latest they can reasonably start manufacturing in order to supply the launch?

 

[Mythos]

Then again maybe they are manufactoring some parts but not the whole systems (PS3)...so some kind of projection would be off?

 

[nintenho]

you know my brother actually got a job at Fry's just to get a pre-order on this. He'll be very happy.

 

[Rolf N]

ZOMG! Demand:supply*=2 all of a sudden! These things have become scarce and valuable!
*snickers*

 

[nintenho]

ZOMG! Demand:supply*=2 all of a sudden! These things have become scarce and valuable!
*snickers*

it's a good thing. Most people getting it at launch are probably going to ebay it (because of the 360 reaction).

 

[Acert93]

ZOMG! Demand:supply*=2 all of a sudden! These things have become scarce and valuable!
*snickers*

Come now, *if* it is not a misquote or misrepresentation of what he intended, a 50% reduction in availability in 2006 is fairly significant.

2M units is getting awful close to the insufficient amount of units MS had for the Xbox 360 in Calendar Year 2005 and I fully expect PS3 demand to far out pace the 2005 Xbox 360 demand. If this is true we could see Sony's sell through of 6M units moved back from March 2007 to June-ish 2007.

I am not too certain of the quote -- 50% reduction in CY delivery just months after a delay and an announcement of target shipments seems unlikely -- so I am not jumping to any conclusions yet. Delays and shortages happen But if we see only 2M units there is no positive way to spin this. 4M units wasn't going to be nearly enough to meet consumer demand this year world wide, 2M would be liable to see some ugly scenes.

EDIT: Reading his quote it seems to be fairly straight forward:

I think that we've always talked about shipping 2 million units worldwide within the calendar year. Since we're going with three territories, we haven't really come up with an allocation just yet. But even if you do the simple math you're talking about less than 700,000 units per territory, per major territory between launch and the end of the year.

Pretty sly there! "always talked about" 2M units in CY 2006? What a subtle way to break the news, "Oh, just to repeat what we have been saying for months..." The fact he says "calendar year" and "between launch and the end of the year" make it nearly impossible for a misquote.

So either Sony is using this as free PR to play off the shortages announcements/fears to get more pre-orders and more free press, or they are going to miss their shipment by 50%. The question is, if they miss their 4M goal, why? BluRay? Limited production to limit losses? And how long will it take before Sony can fully ramp production? Will it take them 6+ months like MS?

This will be an interesting fall. 2 consoles being launched with a lot of fanfare, PS3 with a ton of media options and Wii with a new twist to gaming. MS should have a solid lineup of games and a new TV show. It does create an interesting question:

Do consumers wait for PS3 availability and/or price drop, do they instead pick up a 360, or do they go with the cheaper Wii and let things shake out?

 

[expletive]

Consumers aside, i wonder if this impacts any development decisions if the projected installed base is drastically reduced throughout 2007.

 

[Tap In]

I can't imagine anyone not ever expecting there to be 360-like (or worse) shortages.

the numbers they claimed are "hopes".

prepare yourself for the same angry shortage BS as last November.

 

[Acert93]

Consumers aside, i wonder if this impacts any development decisions if the projected installed base is drastically reduced throughout 2007.

The question is how much will it limit the install base?

Sony has ramped very well in the past, churning out 15-20M units in a year. Maybe they are waiting for 65nm RSX and Cell to come online to make a price drop and BR to become more stable and really push hard throughout 2007? Of course your point still stands: publishers have to make bets on what they see as much as what they are being told. IF they only hit 2M units in 2006 you would think some publishers will begin seriously looking at the original delay, and no significant shortages, and at that point all those Wiis out there for cheap development and 5x as many Xbox 360's should start to look enticing.

Btw, anyone else notice some recent MS material has been saying 10M units by the end of CY 2006? Before it was 10M units before Sony launched, but now they are adding a 6 week grace period... which only contains the biggest sales day of the year.

 

[expletive]

The question is how much will it limit the install base?

Sony has ramped very well in the past, churning out 15-20M units in a year. Maybe they are waiting for 65nm RSX and Cell to come online to make a price drop and BR to become more stable and really push hard throughout 2007? Of course your point still stands: publishers have to make bets on what they see as much as what they are being told. IF they only hit 2M units in 2006 you would think some publishers will begin seriously looking at the original delay, and no significant shortages, and at that point all those Wiis out there for cheap development and 5x as many Xbox 360's should start to look enticing.

Yeah its tough to determine if whatever is causing the potential shortage will be a longer term problem (like bad cell yields until 65nm) or just a late start...

Btw, anyone else notice some recent MS material has been saying 10M units by the end of CY 2006? Before it was 10M units before Sony launched, but now they are adding a 6 week grace period... which only contains the biggest sales day of the year.

yes i did actually point that out in another thread and theyve also tweaked their FY estimates from 15m to 13-15m. What i dont recall is if they made their 10m when Sony launches before or after the Sony launch date was announced. Did they make the statement assuming a mid december PS3 launch? Probably not given theyre re-setting all their estimates now...

 

[Bad_Boy]

yes i did actually point that out in another thread and theyve also tweaked their FY estimates from 15m to 13-15m. What i dont recall is if they made their 10m when Sony launches before or after the Sony launch date was announced. Did they make the statement assuming a mid december PS3 launch? Probably not given theyre re-setting all their estimates now...

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2006/may06/05-09E32006BriefingPR.mspx

LOS ANGELES — May 9, 2006 —Microsoft Corp. Chairman and Chief Software Architect Bill Gates today staked the claim that the Xbox 360™ system will have a 10 million-unit head start by the time the competition enters the market and more than 160 games by the end of the year.

May 9th during e3. I beleive sony announced november for ps3 at GDC in march.

 

[Rolf N]

it's a good thing. Most people getting it at launch are probably going to ebay it (because of the 360 reaction).

Enterprising individuals would have made preorders early on specifically for that purpose.
*cough*

Those individuals would probably be excited by this news item here.

 

[El Leone]

GS: So is the PS3 already being manufactured?

KH: We haven't started manufacturing yet. Some of our ops guys were actually just in China, and also in Japan just reviewing the [production] lines and everything else. But they are, again, preparing as we speak to get the manufacturing going.

Get started already!

Where is this interview?

 

[Titanio]

When is the latest they can reasonably start manufacturing in order to supply the launch?

That is the more stand-out quote in the interview IMO, if only because there were very specific reports earlier that assembly had begun.

To answer your question, I would guess within a month. By comparison MS started about 2 months before launch, reportedly. The earlier the better, obviously.