Earthquake/Tsunami in Japan
- Thread starter DuckThor Evil
- Start date
They should be as long as they are suggesting doing things they have no clue about (@see people protesting about paying for stuff in Greece).
If it was me I'd would have banned them long ago. Pretty much only reason that hasn't been done is because it would be political suicide.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5174391/ns/us_news-environment/
In chernobyl about third of the hundred + tons of fuel was blown into the atmosphere. This can't happen in Japan. It can still get pretty bad, yes, but nothing nearly as bad as in Chernobyl. Also, modern reactors are simply incapable of such disaster.Grall said:
I'd say they are quite comparable. Modern designs are done so that they simply don't need any active mechanism to stop the reaction and thus would automatically shut down in case of emergency. They are also using only a fraction of the fuel of older designs so even if they are hit by a meteorite or nuke the resulting contamination would be much less.Grall said:
Yes, and you need to compare that to the consequences and risks of the alternatives.
I really fear for the health of the workers at the plant, on the other hand I fear what might happen when they can´t keep people working at the plant and totally lose control of cooling the fuel rods.
There´s still two more reactors to go, eventually they might have problems with all of them though I don´t know how much if any fuel is stored in the units number 5 and 6...
Also: I think there´s a possibility that people being in panic may cause further damage. Seems like there´s some panic to get out of Tokyo... AFAIK stores shelves are empty and there´s a possibility a lot of people may die of hunger,disease and dehydration.
Hell, people are actually panicking in Finland and buying iodine pills (which is not really necessary, Japan could not be much farther from Finland even if it tried very hard)
edit: Now they are saying there is a fire on the unit number 4 again. Will this nightmare ever end
There´s still two more reactors to go, eventually they might have problems with all of them though I don´t know how much if any fuel is stored in the units number 5 and 6...
Also: I think there´s a possibility that people being in panic may cause further damage. Seems like there´s some panic to get out of Tokyo... AFAIK stores shelves are empty and there´s a possibility a lot of people may die of hunger,disease and dehydration.
Hell, people are actually panicking in Finland and buying iodine pills (which is not really necessary, Japan could not be much farther from Finland even if it tried very hard)
edit: Now they are saying there is a fire on the unit number 4 again. Will this nightmare ever end
Last edited by a moderator:
They're just repeating last mornings (european time) news, dunno why, and apparently some sites are reporting them as new news.edit: Now they are saying there is a fire on the unit number 4 again. Will this nightmare ever end
There has been one fire, and one explosion at plant 4, totaling to 4 explosions in the 4 plants.
edit: scratch that, flames are new again apparently, but no new explosions.
edit2: The fire is according to reports in the outer shell of building 4, reason for fire is unknown, but I suppose the most logical reason is the used fuel rods
Last edited by a moderator:
And how long do they have to keep up this operation of emergency cooling? Some say 10 days, some say 100 days, that´s several months! What happens when the crew start dying? Who will replace them? What about the reactor 4 used fuel rods... how long do they have to keep trying to cool them? Forever? AFAIK they´ve not been in use for months...
So basically I don´t really see how there is even any hope that they can keep this under any kind of semblance of control for too long. What will happen to Tokyo when they decide to give up all efforts of damage control and just let the whole site burn?! Will they evacuate the whole city, nay the whole nation eventually? I think that is the real worst case scenario that few have even thought about, let alone said out loud. This might become 8 on the scale of 1 to 7. I really hope I´m wrong. Please, someone calm me down convincingly
So basically I don´t really see how there is even any hope that they can keep this under any kind of semblance of control for too long. What will happen to Tokyo when they decide to give up all efforts of damage control and just let the whole site burn?! Will they evacuate the whole city, nay the whole nation eventually? I think that is the real worst case scenario that few have even thought about, let alone said out loud. This might become 8 on the scale of 1 to 7. I really hope I´m wrong. Please, someone calm me down convincingly
you might want to reassess your wording, "slightly". Ive been to a few nuclear plants (hobby of mine) & from what Ive seen security is pretty lax, Ive even camped overnight right next to the fence of one in france (for a laugh)
On occasions in the past, protestors have managed to enter nuclear plants unarthorized. I assume security at weapons facilities is far more strong. civilian vs military
eg heres one example
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article812069.ece
now if unarmed ppl can do this, do you honestly think a suicidal weapon carrying group wont be able to
And how long do they have to keep up this operation of emergency cooling? Some say 10 days, some say 100 days, that´s several months! What happens when the crew start dying? Who will replace them? What about the reactor 4 used fuel rods... how long do they have to keep trying to cool them? Forever? AFAIK they´ve not been in use for months...
So basically I don´t really see how there is even any hope that they can keep this under any kind of semblance of control for too long. What will happen to Tokyo when they decide to give up all efforts of damage control and just let the whole site burn?! Will they evacuate the whole city, nay the whole nation eventually? I think that is the real worst case scenario that few have even thought about, let alone said out loud. This might become 8 on the scale of 1 to 7. I really hope I´m wrong. Please, someone calm me down convincingly
Once they get situation under control (= make sure the rods are under water, and stay under water), the cooling can be arranged for as long as it's needed without big issues.
Despite what france says, the incident should be rated 4 or 5 on INES scale for now, with possibilities to rise to 6 depending on how things go from now on. Even if everything continues to go wrong, the type of reactors in question should alone make sure it won't reach 7 like Chernobyl did.
Examples from IAEA on the incidents:
7 - Chernobyl, Widespread health and enviromental effects
6 - Kyshtym, Significant release of radioactive material
5 - Windscale Pile, release of radioactive material, Three Mile Island, severe damage in reactor core
4 - Tokaimura, fatal overexposures of workers, Saint Laurent des Eaux, melting of one channel of fuel in reactor with no release outside the site
And the descriptions of relevant scales:
Level 6
Serious Accident
• Significant release of radioactive material likely to require implementation of planned countermeasures.
Level 5
Accident with Wider Consequences
• Limited release of radioactive material likely to require implementation of some planned countermeasures.
• Several deaths from radiation.
• Severe damage to reactor core.
• Release of large quantities of radioactive material within an installation with a high probability of significant public exposure. This could arise from a major criticality
accident or fire.
Level 4
Accident with Local Consequences
• Minor release of radioactive material unlikely to result in implementation of planned countermeasures other than local food controls.
• At least one death from radiation.
• Fuel melt or damage to fuel resulting in more than 0.1% release of core inventory.
• Release of significant quantities of radioactive material within an installation with a high probability of significant public exposure.
In case of Fukushima, it fullfills some of the scale 5 descriptions, like release of radioactive materials outside the actual site, however the amounts outside site have been minor so far, and possibly the "severe damage to reactor core" (currently unknown how severe the damages are)
On the other hand, it doesn't even fullfill the fatal exposure of at least one of scale 4 accident - only deaths so far are due other problems (one apparently fell from crane, the other one is not known but they both disappeared already on friday)
The scale 6, despite what french says, hasn't happened, and most likely won't happen.
This is the version I read: http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Factsheets/English/ines.pdf
(final page)
You could argue that it is probable that some radiation death would happen at least to the workers of the site, with possible cancer casualties later on. And with regards to the last two values...
At least I could argue that they´ve gone well beyond planned countermeasures and into the land of unplanned ones. Health problems and number of radiation casualties will remain to be seen, and how do they define what is major release and what is minor release... But this is all nitpicking.
But yeah, thanks for putting it to perspective. Apparently they have also got the fire under control again.
(final page)
You could argue that it is probable that some radiation death would happen at least to the workers of the site, with possible cancer casualties later on. And with regards to the last two values...
At least I could argue that they´ve gone well beyond planned countermeasures and into the land of unplanned ones. Health problems and number of radiation casualties will remain to be seen, and how do they define what is major release and what is minor release... But this is all nitpicking.
But yeah, thanks for putting it to perspective. Apparently they have also got the fire under control again.
Ya they are talking about using helicopters. Not really a good sign.
Go through Paris.
Tried, but KLM showed not flights...finally got one through Seattle which I figure should be relatively clear of the plume for a while.
Are there models somewhere? I saw you mentioned one but didn't find it.
Post #166 in this thread, I've no idea on the accuracy.
The one I mentioned earlier was a hoax.