DFC Intelligence's - The Fight for Number One in Video Games
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elementOfpower
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Granted they commented later on that they believed the 360 would take the crown next gen, as do I, but I just don't see the above happening. The Wii is at a serious disadvantage by not supporting hi-def. I equate the Wii to the N64 when it came out. The Wii doesn't support hi-def; the N64 didn't support CD. At the time, the cartridge format was a significant hindrance for the N64 compared to its counterpart, the Playstation, and I think this next gen will follow the same pattern by the Wii's inability to support hi-def like its counterparts. Nintendo seems to always one step behind when it comes to technology.
That said, hardcore Nintendo fans will swipe up the consoles like there's no tomorrow, and so will the little kiddies (or the parents of the little kiddies) who don't want to pay premium dollar for videogames.
Microsoft is sitting pretty this gen. They are the median between price and performance. Nintendo's games will look graphically incompetent by comparison with its counterparts, and Sony's machine will look ridiculously expensive by comparison with its counterparts. Microsoft's will be the most reasonable choice by offering the latest technology at the most reasonable price. It is a good mix of the two and may even turn out to have better looking games than the PS3.
Except you didn't have to buy a whole new TV to take advantage of CD-based media. You just had to buy a Playstation. Processing power is more of a hindrance to the Wii than output resolution.
fearsomepirate said:
Exactly!
I agree - While the report does list 360 as the most likely to lead this gen they also recognize Wii has potential to do very well. I figure they're potential market percentage is anywhere between 20 and 33% marketshare. But this is mostly dependant on how well they market and how well they do at attracting and producing quality software.
This probably belongs here, it's a follow up to this:
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=31727
My immediate thoughts are:
- they're basing their outlook to a large degree on the notion that PS3 will never come down in price? Err...
- 6m is a best case scenario for 360 in Japan? Even as a best case scenario that seems rather generous
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=31727
My immediate thoughts are:
- they're basing their outlook to a large degree on the notion that PS3 will never come down in price? Err...
- 6m is a best case scenario for 360 in Japan? Even as a best case scenario that seems rather generous
Titanio said:This probably belongs here, it's a follow up to this:
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=31727
My immediate thoughts are:
- they're basing their outlook to a large degree on the notion that PS3 will never come down in price? Err...
- 6m is a best case scenario for 360 in Japan? Even as a best case scenario that seems rather generous
I think 6 mil in japan is alot as well but as a best case scenario I could see that. Best case scenario:
They get a current port of FF and DQ and they have a significant price advantage in Japan - weighed against 360 not being the "it" console and having the MS stigma against it.
I could see that equating to a best case of 6mil.
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6 million in japan!!! why not 100 million!
facts, in japan the xb360 has sold less than 150,000 since launch, and only 60,000 this year
# Dead or Alive 4 (Tecmo) - 89,255 units
# Ridge Racer 6 (Bandai Namco) - 59,509 units
# Ninety Nine Nights (Microsoft) - 34,418 units
# Perfect Dark Zero (Microsoft) - 26,085 units
# Rumble Roses XX (Konami) - 25,331 units
# Project Gotham Racing 3 (Microsoft) - 24,704 units
# Enchanted Arms (From Software) - 20,233 units
# Need For Speed Most Wanted (EA) - 17,973 units
# Final Fantasy XI (Square Enix) - 13,865 units
facts, in japan the xb360 has sold less than 150,000 since launch, and only 60,000 this year
list of alltime best selling xb360 in japan (somehow i dont think a new FF is gonna make it sell 6 million)
# Dead or Alive 4 (Tecmo) - 89,255 units
# Ridge Racer 6 (Bandai Namco) - 59,509 units
# Ninety Nine Nights (Microsoft) - 34,418 units
# Perfect Dark Zero (Microsoft) - 26,085 units
# Rumble Roses XX (Konami) - 25,331 units
# Project Gotham Racing 3 (Microsoft) - 24,704 units
# Enchanted Arms (From Software) - 20,233 units
# Need For Speed Most Wanted (EA) - 17,973 units
# Final Fantasy XI (Square Enix) - 13,865 units
well its certainly not off to a good start in the US
I wonder, how reliable is DFC - I have never heard of them before. Who owns them? How are they funded?
There are a number of "market research" organisations in the computer industry who are little more than PR organisations or lobby groups which receive commissions from various industry interest groups.
I wonder who actually pays for this type of report. Large retailers will probably commission their own research studies for their own exclusive use to ensure it's accuracy (in sampling etc.), rather than rely on reports which are carried out first and then attempt to sell later, for which there is little incentive to spend the hundreds of thousands of pounds required for detailed comprehensive market research. Market research done properly is expensive. Large retailers and manufacturers also have their own experienced market research teams who are likely to be a lot more in touch with their own industry than independent market research companies.
The business main reason for commissioning an company is when it is necessary to get an independent view. Outsourcing is done a lot for management consultancy for this reason, but for market research which should be statistics based if they are to be accurate, independence should be guaranteed by the statistical methods used. Commissioning market research which is kept secret, for a company's own exclusive internal use , rather than buying public research that is done at the research company's own expense and then made available to anyone who want to pay a nominal sum for it, makes more sense for the companies likely to make use of this type of research.
There are a number of "market research" organisations in the computer industry who are little more than PR organisations or lobby groups which receive commissions from various industry interest groups.
I wonder who actually pays for this type of report. Large retailers will probably commission their own research studies for their own exclusive use to ensure it's accuracy (in sampling etc.), rather than rely on reports which are carried out first and then attempt to sell later, for which there is little incentive to spend the hundreds of thousands of pounds required for detailed comprehensive market research. Market research done properly is expensive. Large retailers and manufacturers also have their own experienced market research teams who are likely to be a lot more in touch with their own industry than independent market research companies.
The business main reason for commissioning an company is when it is necessary to get an independent view. Outsourcing is done a lot for management consultancy for this reason, but for market research which should be statistics based if they are to be accurate, independence should be guaranteed by the statistical methods used. Commissioning market research which is kept secret, for a company's own exclusive internal use , rather than buying public research that is done at the research company's own expense and then made available to anyone who want to pay a nominal sum for it, makes more sense for the companies likely to make use of this type of research.
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zed said:well its certainly not off to a good start in the US
Well it maybe hasn't sold the same amount yet, but if you look the graph for xbox you will see that what really does the difference is that has a huge jump from the first to second month, a perÃod in witch the 360 was extremely supply limited, apart from that the month to month selling is a bit higher for the 360, making the curve a bit steaper after the second month, not to mention that we are talking about a $400 console. Lets wait and see if the fall games will not manage to induce the sales further...
You see these reports one the web to buy for thousands of dollars. My guess is it's advice to independant financial investors. If you're thinking to invest in CE goods, maybe the console sector has caught your eye and what to try to see which company is going to do well? Then you can't afford a proper market analysis to order, so you pick up these independent analyses assuming these guys have done all the leg work.SPM said:
Like you say, I can't believe these reports are there for the benefit of any large companies wanting to know what's happening. EB, EA, and others, if they want real insight, will pay the relatively palty sums for them to get it properly researched, rather than listen to a few less-researched opinions, that to me seem to be analysts reading 'net reports for their sources, given the lack of hard facts the put in their reports.
Serenity Painted Death
Regular
TheChefO said:
Xbox still hasn't reached .5 million in Japan, and 360 is doing significantly worse.
6 million is a total drug-induced pipedream.
Serenity Painted Death
Regular
No. It's completely impossible. Six million is 150% of the GC installed base in Japan.
Serenity Painted Death
Regular
You can go ahead and try.
I mean, you're technically correct: Six million Japanese consumers could eventually buy a 360. However, the probability of this is so low it is effectively zero, and I will continue to regard it as such (so, no, in this case, there isn't much difference at all in the two terms). It ain't happening, and in all reality, there is no chance of it happening. The argument might be more compelling if the 360 wasn't doing much worse than even the original Xbox.
I mean, according to String Theory, all your subatomic particles could rematerialize on Mars, but the probability is so low it would take longer than the life of the Universe for it to actually happen.
Revised probability: 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of 360 selling through 6 million units in Japan.
Best Case scenarios need to be at least /remotely/ plausible.
As to the topic, there are no games that will save MS in Japan, as Blue Dragon will prove. New RPG franchises have a hard time getting off the ground in Japan, period, much less on a system they have no love for whatsoever.
I mean, you're technically correct: Six million Japanese consumers could eventually buy a 360. However, the probability of this is so low it is effectively zero, and I will continue to regard it as such (so, no, in this case, there isn't much difference at all in the two terms). It ain't happening, and in all reality, there is no chance of it happening. The argument might be more compelling if the 360 wasn't doing much worse than even the original Xbox.
I mean, according to String Theory, all your subatomic particles could rematerialize on Mars, but the probability is so low it would take longer than the life of the Universe for it to actually happen.
Revised probability: 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of 360 selling through 6 million units in Japan.
Best Case scenarios need to be at least /remotely/ plausible.
As to the topic, there are no games that will save MS in Japan, as Blue Dragon will prove. New RPG franchises have a hard time getting off the ground in Japan, period, much less on a system they have no love for whatsoever.
It depends how you define best case scenario. Best case I'd say XB360 gets 20 million. MS secure exclusives on DQ, FF (maybe buy Square Enix?) and a host of other blockbuster titles including something totally new that displaces Karaoke and Brain Training as popular activities and Blue Dragon which ends up being more popular than FF, and they drop the price to $100 for the Premium.
Serenity Painted Death
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Shifty Geezer said:
Purchasing exclusive rights to DQ would cost more than Rare or Lionhead. The game is worth 3-4 million unit sales in Japan alone (and they often charge insane prices for the game, ditto with FF)
Buying S-E is totally out of the question. They certainly have the money, but it isn't as if the Xbox division of MS is free to act in a vacuum and needlessly throw away a few billion more dollars. Why doesn't MS just buy EVERY major developer? I'm sure they TECHNICALLY have the cash available!
PS2 is at 23 million and PS1 just did clear 21.
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Serenity Painted Death
Regular
Teasy said:
GC is at ~4 million.
Xbox at ~450K
PS2 at ~23 million
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