The fallacy here is thinking that the companies are doing something to potentially alienate entire sections of their consumer base in order to squeeze out another percentage or two of margins.
The fact is that most game companies are constantly on the edge of losing money. Those few that are solidly profitable are only in good shape due to them having a major MAJOR blockbuster cash cow (WoW, COD: MW, GTA). But cash cows don't last forever (EA + The Sims for instance).
It's still absolutely amazing that computer games have come down in price over the last 2 decades and has been virtually steady over the past decade or so, all in the face of increasing dev costs, inflation, technology costs, advertising costs, packaging costs, etc... Console games I'm not so sure about. I think those have gone up slightly?
Add in adjustments for inflation and cames are significantly cheaper now than they were a decade or two decades ago.
At the moment, publishers are looking for any way possible to prevent prices from going HIGHER. Pubs, despite public misconception know that higher prices will have a negative effect on sales volume. And when you are teetering on the edge of being in the red or being in the black, you can't afford to throw away any sales volume.
As I've noted before. There aren't many things pubs can do anymore to maintain current price levels. They've already done away with extensive manuals, extravagent maps, expensive box packaging, etc.
The only things they have left is to give would be pirater's an incentive to purchase the game. And to give people that would otherwise buy used games an incentive to buy new. Oh and digital distribution, but the market still isn't ready for that en masse. And even that will only give them a few more years breathing room until they are facing the same spectre of possibly having to raise prices to try to be profitable.
The only other option many pubs have if they are going to survive and turn a profit is to raise prices. And noone, publishers or consumers, wants to do that.
Regards,
SB
And the logical conclusion, as far as I can see it, is that the business model simply isn't sustainable.
What you're saying is that publishers are caught between a rock and a hard place. Well, yes. Because the consumers are not prepared to pay the price for their business model to be effective - barely now, and presumably even less so in the future. The trends are clear. However, there is an industry built around the current modus operandi. Publishers, retail chains, some developers et cetera - there are a lot of people that would like things to be exactly as they have been, only more profitable. They will obviously do whatever they hope will work to change the situation to their benefit. Nobody said that the evolutionary loosers ever gave up without a fight.
Dobwal puts his finger on a particularly sore spot - the retail environment. But like you S_B, I don't think that going all DD is ready for prime time, and besides, there will always be consumers that simply enjoy browsing physical shelves or touch an accessory before they buy it, that will help sustain at least some retail activity.
What constitutes a solution? I honestly don't think there is one that allows the current model to sustain growth.
Personally, I feel that one thing that needs to change is the blockbuster business model. Games publishing has more and more come to resemble the cinema movie industry. Huge production costs, huge promotional efforts to break into limited cinema space and entice movie goers, and the need for the blockbusters to financially sustain the other efforts which are produced in the hopes of finding new cash cows for the future. The costs involved requires very substantial funding, making independent efforts very unlikely to have any major audience. Even while not very good, creatively this system actually works better for films than for games (because the film audience is wider, whereas just about everything in games is targeted to 7-12 year old boys). It works better still, i.e. it almost works
for the product where the model originated - books, which has the widest range of consumers and themes, and
much lower costs.
Another observation is that corporate inertia makes it difficult for an industry to change. It is more likely to fade and be complemented and slowly superceded by alternatives. Where we have seen a lot of activity and vitality is in areas outside the old, such as browser games, lighter weight downloadable content for all platforms and phone games (where Apples app store and iTunes point the way for digital distribution). It's worth noting that
all of these examples feature drastically lower production and distribution costs. My personal opinion is that this is the direction of the future.