Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Well if this is true it's pretty much game over, aerolization:

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/coronavirus-may-spread-through-normal-breathing-us-scientists/

 

Let's not forget that we'll still have the flu deaths this year (will have had many of them already, of course), in addition to the Covid-19 ones.

The chap in the North London hospital I mentioned inferred in his message that the number of people in critical respiratory distress was not usual. He suffers from asthma, apparently, so is being kept away from the 'red zones' for his own safety. Whether or not asthmatics of his age are at greatly increased risk, I'm not sure (he's in his 30s), but I'm guessing they are trying to avoid too much risk.

 

Not necessarily. It may be very difficult to catch from the amount of virus in a normal breath. If such aerosolisation occurred and everyone nearby could catch the illness, you'd expect the r number to be sky high, especially as people are infectious before symptoms appear or if they are asymptomatic.

 

On another note, there are some seriously, seriously stupid people around:

https://www.theguardian.com/technol...threatened-due-to-5g-coronavirus-conspiracies

 

But you don’t need to reduce R to 0.0-0.1
It is enough to reduce it below 1.
Problem is that the societal consequences of pushing R down hard gets progressively steeper for ever smaller gains. And unless you manage to quench it utterly, which would seem impossible in practise, the moment you release your restrictions the spread takes off again. (There was a neat simulation from folks at Harvard showing the resulting see-saw pattern resulting from turning restrictions on and off to keep ICUs from being overwhelmed.) You can do that, but if you could maintain the need for intensive care just below the maximum available (while working furiously to extend capacity, obviously) you could avoid having to shut down productivity periodically and for long periods, until an effective vaccine is developed. Initially, these clamp-down periods were optimistically assumed to be time-limited to two or three weeks. In reality, we have at best seen a levelling off after a month or so, and nowhere are we approaching moving back down to the base line.

Finding a sustainable steady state is probably what all nations need to attempt to do anyway. If Sweden is lucky, their current line is enough to achieve a levelling off of the rate of spread. No politician in their right mind would talk openly about an acceptable rate of death, but that’s something we’ve always needed to deal with even if out of the public eye. Roughly 1% of a nations population dies yearly. Is it acceptable if, for a year, it rises to 1.1%? 1.2%? Somebody needs to take a long hard look at the total picture and make that call.
I’m just glad it’s not me.

 

The 3 hours in the air thing is old news.

Also :
The new coronavirus can likely remain airborne for some time. That doesn’t mean we’re doomed

Really contagious aerosolised diseases have far faster spread than SARS-Cov2. The current numbers for SARS-Cov2 give it an Ro of 2-3 and around SARS on this chart. (https://www.theguardian.com/news/da...w-ebola-compares-to-other-infectious-diseases)



And (https://www.rferl.org/a/how-contagious-is-covid-19-compared-to-other-diseases/30492988.html)


So whatever SARS-Cov2 contagion routes, it's not massively contagious and it's far from 'game over' even if it's found to hang in the air longer than 3 hours.

 

You will always get extreme cases where a "super spreader" infects many more people than imaginable.
The chart above doesn't do justice to one off-cases regarding the speed with which covid-19 seems to spread.

Indian authorities in the northern state of Punjab have quarantined around 40,000 residents from 20 villages following a Covid-19 outbreak linked to just one man.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52061915

 

Reminder, economic discussion is here: https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/politics-and-economics-of-coronavirus.61643/

 

AMENDED ORDER OF COUNTY JUDGE CLAY JENKINS
Safer At Home Order
DATE AMENDED ORDER ISSUED: April 2, 2020

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/covid-19/orders-media/040220-AmendedOrder.pdf

EDIT: 04/03/2020 @ 8:20 PM

Dallas County official: Stay-at-home order will remain in place until April 30 (not May 20)

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/04/03/dallas-county-official-stay-at-home-order-will-remain-in-place-until-april-30/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Dallas+county+s+top+elected+official+announces+"safer-at-home"+orders+will+continue+until+April+30&utm_campaign=CoronavirusUpdate_04032020

 

@rcf - You presented some numbers supporting your theory of 100,000 deaths in the UK from flu in two months 2018/2019. I presented hard evidence showing those deaths never happened. How can you ignore that real data and once again link to a story with an agenda instead of deal with the real facts??

It's not about conspiracy, but logic. You believe 100,000 died of flu and these sorts of death rates are normal. I show that's not true. How can you look at the real data and still stick with the idea that flu's just as bad, Covid19 is nothing more serious? Do you just ignore numbers that contradict your preferred beliefs? Or do you refuse to listen to arguments against your viewpoint and haven't even looked at the real death-rate from Flu so as not to challenge your beliefs?

edit: If you'd actually looked at my data, you'd have seen I posted the wrong info and could have argued. Here's a better table:

There were an estimated 23,200 excess winter deaths which occurred in England and Wales in the 2018 to 2019 winter, the lowest since the winter of 2013 to 2014.​

So how do you process this information in relation to your 100,000 deaths figure? Do you ignore it, or deny it, or aren't you even listening because you already think you know the truth? Honest question so I can understand the thought process. From where I'm sitting, it looks someone pointed you to an animal and told you it's a sheep, and now you're going to accept it's a sheep even when it's a lama regardless how many people explain to you the differences between sheep and lamas.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52161995

The US has been accused of redirecting 200,000 Germany-bound masks for its own use, in a move condemned as "modern piracy".​

 

Yep this was predicted in our newspapers - back then they were concerned that the US would confiscate all respirators made by Philips, which they can do using an old law from the 1950.. That fortunately hasn’t happened ... yet.

 

I ve heard that Germany did the same for masks bound for other EU countries. I guess its Karma

 

Looking this up, there was a customs block of 240,000 masks for Switzerland. but this wasn't Germany holding them back selfishly.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-backlash-from-neighbors-over-mask-export-ban

Germany’s health minister signaled that Berlin could ease restrictions going forward, particularly to its European partners.

“I take this issue of European solidarity very seriously and am therefore certain there will be authorizations soon to export masks to certain countries,” Health Minister Jens Spahn said at a news conference in Berlin on Monday. “We’re not categorically against exports but want to understand what happens, because previously it was so that masks went not where they were most needed but where most was paid.”​

We had the same with Czechia blocking a shipment of mask destined for Italy and was accused of stealing them, but that was a law-enforcement issue as the country tackles a growing black-market in health gear.

Stolen shipments are being sold to the public.
https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/11977-czech-seizes-chinese-masks-some-diverted-from-italy

https://www.europol.europa.eu/sites...how_criminals_exploit_the_covid-19_crisis.pdf

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-g...et-prices-on-masks-protective-gear/a-52952314

Customs operations and law enforcement need to work to ensure products get to where they are supposed to.

France and Germany are continuing to support sharing their products with other countries.

 

So, thankfully I live in the state that was the earliest hit and had the highest infection and death rate up until NY passed us. Washington State.

I'm not sure NY should be used as an example of how the US will fare. WA and CA are both doing significantly better. We've likely plateaued in WA and I think it's plateauing or close to plateauing in CA. Likewise it doesn't appear that Texas is running out of control. That's almost 1/4 of the population of the US.

It helps that in our states the Mayor of our largest city didn't go out and basically tell people to ignore social distancing and keep going to bars and such as the NY Mayor did.

So, in WA, despite being the epicenter of Covid-19 in the US until NY passed us, it never got out of control. Our hospitals were never overwhelmed. We implemented social distancing before the rest of the country and before much of the rest of the world with people urged to stay at home and work from home. Likewise with closing of bars and restaurants and any other non-essential business to the general public, although restaurants are allowed to serve take out food.

I'd imagine that the other states in the US that have followed WA's example will fare similarly in controlling the spread and mitigating deaths due to insufficient medical care.

People pointing to NY and saying that's indicative of how the US will handle Covid-19 are basically saying...Look at Italy as an example of how the EU will handle Covid-19. Which is nonsensical. The EU is made up of various member states. And while each US state is more closely tied to the Federal government, each of the 50 states can and will set their own policies on how they handle the virus.

It might go like how it has in WA and CA. Or it may end up going like it is in NY. It all depends on what each individual state does.

Regards,
SB

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...-france-germany-italy-coronavirus-outbreak-uk

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-h...tection-gear-due-to-coronavirus-idUKKBN20R1TG

 

Looks like a reactionary move and they had a change of heart then.

 

Turkey just seized an airplane with ventilators meant for Spain, the plane just stopped there to refuel

Sad times

 

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