Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Regarding Covid the virus itself, I read about a new paper the other day which purported to have discovered some biomarkers relating to 'Long Covid'. Not sure if it will hold up to peer review or not of course.

I would have posted a twitter link discussing the post, but it seems that Musk now requires a login to view any twitter content and I don't plan to set up an account!
 
Mariner said:
We haven't prohibited cars, but we've legislated to ensure that they are as safe as possible.
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No, they are as safe as reasonable. They could be safer and more expensive. They could have harsher speed limits. We've stopped at where we collectively think we've reached a sweetspot on the balance of trade-offs. Everything in life is a tradeoff and every choice incurs certain risks. There is no risk-free choice. Understanding those things are fundamental for sane decision making, and its enerving to see how often those fundamental truths are forgotten by decision makers and adult people in general.
 
My ongoing casual surveillance shows there's a new wave incoming to the UK.

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Edit: I see I'm a few hours behind the news which is reporting a new variant, EG.5.1, Eris.
 
An increase of 40% in hospitalisations over the past week, apparently, albeit from a low level.

My Mum is in a care home and everybody there (including her) has Covid at present, though she's not too poorly with it. One of the other residents has been hospitalised.

Problem is that pretty much all surveillance of prevalence and variants has ended here in the UK, so we're flying blind to some degree. If we get a new variant which changes the current status quo, we won't know it before the hospitals begin to fill up and medical establishment have given up any pretence of trying to stop transmission within medical settings. I spent a night in hospital the other week and pretty much nobody there wore a mask. Just one or two careful medics!
 
Shifty Geezer said:
OurWorldInData shows zero cases for US. Have they given up tracking and reporting? Indeed, only S. Korea is trackable as a new wave on OWID. Pretty much everywhere has given up high quality surveillance.
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I get the impression that most governments are holding their breaths with fingers-crossed behind their backs. Almost everyone has taken a gamble that existing immunity from past infection and vaccination will be enough to keep hospitalisations and deaths to a low level.

If we get an 'unhelpful' variant, the failure to implement ventilation, filtration and other mitigations in public buildings could come back to bite us on the backside.

I wonder what sort of a booster vaccination programme we'll end up with? Nothing announced as yet in the UK though there is apparently a plan. Some sort of bivalent vaccine for older people and the clinically vulnerable, I expect. After the terrible problems last winter and the continuing strikes, I'm not sure how much resilience there will be in the healthcare system if we have a rerun this winter.
 
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The new wave appears to have peaked at very low incidence. Cases seem broadly distributed among adults of all ages. There have been no boosters for under 75s. I think it's looking quite positive that this novel disease is entering a background pathogen state alongside rhinovirus, adenovirus, flu, etc. We'll have to see if it flares dangerously like Influenza or just pootles about like rhinovirus.

Edit: I should add the new Eris variant was 1 in 7 cases mid Augustso if that was going to grow into another notable peak, I'm thinking that should have happened. Instead Eris has been kept to a bump thus far, although there's still scope for a late uptick.
 
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Shifty Geezer said:
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The new wave appears to have peaked at very low incidence. Cases seem broadly distributed among adults of all ages. There have been no boosters for under 75s. I think it's looking quite positive that this novel disease is entering a background pathogen state alongside rhinovirus, adenovirus, flu, etc. We'll have to see if it flares dangerously like Influenza or just pootles about like rhinovirus.

Edit: I should add the new Eris variant was 1 in 7 cases mid Augustso if that was going to grow into another notable peak, I'm thinking that should have happened. Instead Eris has been kept to a bump thus far, although there's still scope for a late uptick.
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Good news but in the US, there's still growth. I don't think it's reached the levels of previous waves though.

The virologists are wary of BA-2.8.6, which has over 30 mutations relative to Omicron. So the fear is if it transmits easily, it could have a similar impact as the original Omicron, which reinfected a lot of people because it had so many mutations compared to Delta. So 2.8.6 may break through the "immunity wall" of vaccinations and previous infections with Omicron.
 
New study finds potential markers for Long Covid and brain fog in the form of relatively-well known proteins found in blood, which are believed to cause blood clots, which may be triggering some of the LC and brain fog symptoms.

These proteins can be detected in existing tests, some of which are used along with cognitive tests for Alzheimers.

Now a new study has found these cognitive problems could result from blood clots triggered by infection, possibly through mechanisms like those that cause some types of dementia. These clots leave telltale protein signatures in blood, suggesting that testing for them could help predict, diagnose and possibly even treat long COVID.


The findings, published on Thursday in Nature Medicine, suggest that existing blood tests for detecting these proteins could help physicians recognize long COVID (although some experts caution that long COVID’s symptoms and causes likely vary among individuals). Up to 15 percent of people who contract SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID, go on to develop long COVID symptoms that can last for months or years. The condition has proved difficult to treat—or even diagnose—because of the mishmash of reported symptoms such as brain fog, fatigue, respiratory problems and numerous other effects. It’s still unclear whether the virus sticks around in the body or the initial infection triggers another reaction, such as an autoimmune response, that leads to the continuing symptoms.


To look into this question, lead study author and psychiatrist Maxime Taquet of the University of Oxford followed more than 1,800 people in the U.K. who were hospitalized for COVID between 2020 and 2021. Taquet and his colleagues checked in with the patients six and 12 months after their initial infection to monitor any prolonged symptoms and give them a cognitive test designed to diagnose disorders such as Alzheimer’s.


When the researchers examined blood tests taken while the patients were hospitalized, they found that blood from people who still had brain fog six or 12 months after infection tended to have elevated levels of at least one of two proteins in their blood. The first protein, called D-dimer, is produced when blood clots break down in the body. Although patients with high levels of D-dimer reported memory problems, they did not score lower on cognitive tests. They were more likely to have shortness of breath and fatigue than other patients, however. Taquet suspects these effects could have been caused by blood clots in the lungs, which can also lead to low oxygen levels in the brain.


The second protein, fibrinogen, is produced in the liver and causes clotting to stop bleeding. Patients who had elevated fibrinogen levels during active COVID infection not only reported memory impairment but also scored poorly on the cognitive test. On average, people in this group scored under 86.7 percent six months after infection—a test result that could indicate dementia. Taquet says these findings suggest that either fibrinogen caused blood clots in the brain or that clots elsewhere in the body affected the brain, causing more severe cognitive symptoms.


Blood tests for both D-dimer and fibrinogen are already standard around the world, so researchers had plenty of available data to check whether the same phenomenon occurred in other groups of patients. In a separate analysis, the team examined health records from nearly 50,000 people in the U.S.—including some who had taken blood tests for fibrinogen or D-dimer before the pandemic started. Brain fog with elevated levels of D-dimer, they found, only occurred in people who had had COVID. But elevated fibrinogen seemed to correlate with brain fog whether or not a person previously had COVID, which indicated that cognitive problems caused by other conditions may also involve fibrinogen.
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Read in Scientific American: https://apple.news/APACZj6stQLuAZ8a8GY4HZw
 
Schools go back this week in the UK so we can expect another surge in cases which will inevitably lead to an increase in hospitalisations as kids pass it on to vulnerable relatives. We'll just have to hope it's not too much of a surge. As for 'Eris' (and one or two other variants with similar mutations), it's probably just a matter of time before infections accelerate, given what we know about how it is likely to escape the immunity most of us now have. Delta and even Omicron were tootling around in small numbers for a few weeks before they really took off and surveillance has all but stopped in most countries. We won't know much about the next wave until it really hits.

Fingers-crossed that existing immunity is enough to keep the levels of serious illness to the minimum. I suspect it should be.
 
Encouraging data, which would seem to indicate that BA.2.86 might perhaps not be too serious an issue:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1697751452976861524

If you've already had Covid this year, you've probably had some sort of variant of XBB.1.5 and antibodies to this seem to hold up pretty well against BA.2.86. This would certainly explain which it doesn't appear to be spreading anywhere near as rapidly as was feared.

Let's hope the same holds true for the 'Eris' EG.5 variants which also have a huge number of mutations.
 
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With EG.5.1 and 'others' in ascendency and making up 70% of all cases while cases are decreasing, doesn't that support the notion that the current variants aren't able to spike cases? The new variants don't seem to have managed much beyond a bump (pending post-school changes).
 
I'd say that the largest waves of infection seem to occur when people are stuck indoors with less ventilation, which will generally be due to weather conditions. Alpha and Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 rocketed through the Northern Hemisphere during the winter months. Delta emerged in India during the monsoon season. It wouldn't surprise me if one of these new variants suddenly begins to accelerate and increase numbers of infections once the weather turns over the next month or two (in the Northern Hemisphere), but thankfully, it doesn't appear as though we're likely to get something which goes crazy as the various Omicron variants have done at times - unless another nasty variant emerges over the next few months! The biggest worry at present would be another situation with a new variant causing increased levels of serious illness as Alpha and Delta once did.

Here in the UK, they are bringing forward the vaccination programme for the most vulnerable for a couple of week and that should help reduce morbidity to some degree, but the eligible groups are much reduced so we'll just have to see how effective it is. It will be interesting to see where we stand by the end of the month. If the reopening of the schools doesn't bring a significant surge, then perhaps we'll get away with it this time, in spite of the huge number of mutations in these newest variants. Covid might be mutating its way towards a dead end with no more pandemic waves or higher levels of serious illness caused, but we've no way of knowing and the issues with long-term illness are still there.
 
Well, there is another proper spike incoming:

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Growth is EG.5.1

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Hmm, on that matter, previous spikes have been dominated by a single strain. I wonder if the general mix of strains we have now is beneficial? That could just be a side effect of low case rates, more noise in the distribution.
 
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I've been visiting in the UK.

A few people wearing surgical masks.

Virtually nobody masks on trains or in the Tube when people are standing pretty much face to face, maybe a half to one foot from each other.

Virologists were worried about the BA 2.8.6 strain with all those mutations but apparently it didn't reduce Omicron antibody titers as much as feared.

I think the bigger fear is a variant gestated in immune-compromised individuals, where they're reproducing and mutating for months. That is the theory of how Delta and Omicron variant had so many mutations relative to prior strains.

That and those highly-mutated variants have to outcompete the dominant variants in transmissibility.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
Well, there is another proper spike incoming:

Growth is EG.5.1

Hmm, on that matter, previous spikes have been dominated by a single strain. I wonder if the general mix of strains we have now is beneficial? That could just be a side effect of low case rates, more noise in the distribution.
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The two scary variants don't appear to be really taking off as feared and, good recent weather aside, I'd guess that this is at least partially because antibodies to XBB.1.5 seem to be pretty effective against it. Loads of infections from the XBB variants in the past 6 months or so and a lot of people appear to have reasonable immunity against 'Eris' and 'Pirola', either from infection with XBB or the BA.2 variants. I suppose a lot will depend on how well the bivalent vaccines which are about to be rolled out to the vulnerable in the UK (and elsewhere, I presume) work against these two variants. The XBB.1.5-based vaccine should be pretty handy against them as well, for those who get it.

All we can do is watch and wait.
 
wco81 said:
I've been visiting in the UK.

A few people wearing surgical masks.

Virtually nobody masks on trains or in the Tube when people are standing pretty much face to face, maybe a half to one foot from each other.
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The government-pushed narrative in the UK has been 'Covid is over' for many months now, so that's not really a surprise.

As an example of this, my wife (a secondary/high school teacher) has been told not to test for Covid if she's feeling ill. If she feels too ill to come into work, that's fair enough, but if she tests and tells them she has Covid, she won't get paid while she's off! Sheer idiocy, of course. It's no surprise that absences of pupils have been way higher than 2019 since Covid came around, even a few years into the pandemic.

My kids have been back at school for a little over a week and I'm currently sitting wrapped in a blanket with some sort of a chill. Not sure what it is yet, but I've certainly caught something from either them or my wife, as I haven't been anywhere else due to some other health issues! I'll have to test in the morning as I can't go to work tomorrow with my immune-compromised brother-in-law there if I've got Covid...

(I'd be surprised if it was Covid yet, truth be told. There's been a heatwave over the past week so lots of open windows and doors for ventilation. It has been throwing it down with rain today so that's more sort of typical autumnal British weather. Six months since I last had Covid and I never felt as bad as this either occasion!)
 
I watched an interesting discussion on youtube about contagion/outbreak movies. You know the plot. An outbreak of some virus has decimated the human population but there is one person who can save humanity because they have an immunity and the film revolves about getting this person to the scientists who will develop a vaccine from his blood and save mankind.
Except we know what will really happen is scientists will develop a vaccine and people will refuse to take it because they think it's a way for the government to control you or bill Gates has put tracking chips in the vaccine or some other nonsense reason.
 
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