Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]
- Thread starter RDGoodla
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On that point of spreading, contagious diseases that aren't airborne are readily controlled such as through good hygiene which is why they aren't a problem - Cholera isn't an issue for societies with adequate infrastructure. The respiratory tract is our only major weakness so seems an obvious point to concentrate on to harmonise medicine with immunity.
digitalwanderer
Legend
In what appears to be more not good news covid has been detected in deer in California.
nordot.app
California detects first case of COVID infection in wildlife ｜ The Mercury News
The COVID virus has been found in a deer in the Sierra Nevada, representing the first detection of the pathogen in California’s free-ranging wildlife. The discovery, revealed in a new analysis of a sample from a mule deer buck collected in 2021, has no immediate consequence for people. There is...
nordot.app
For over a year, researchers across the US (Stanford, Scripps Institute, FDA, UNC Chapel Hill and to hers) tracked antigen specific memory B cells or MBCs after vaccination of macaques.
They tracked the maturation of these MBCs and the antibodies they produced. In all they analyzed over 500 antibodies and identified the ones which were the most broadly neutralizing antibodies or bnAbs.
They also tested a number of adjuvants and found the combination of RBD and spike protein targets and adjuvants which had the most broad and durable protections vs. several coronaviruses. Not only most of the Omicron strains but also MERS and other zoonotic viruses which have the potential to jump to humans. So they tested bat viruses and pangolin viruses.
(Obviously these researchers are operating from the hypothesis that covid-19 was a zoonotic virus which jumped to humans, not some lab leak nonsense.)
They produced a vaccine based on these findings and tested in macaques which showed much more broad and durable protection than current covid vaccines.
This research appears to have been funded by the Gates foundation, so perhaps no federal funding?
But people think the threat is over so why bother make more vaccines and treatments?
They tracked the maturation of these MBCs and the antibodies they produced. In all they analyzed over 500 antibodies and identified the ones which were the most broadly neutralizing antibodies or bnAbs.
They also tested a number of adjuvants and found the combination of RBD and spike protein targets and adjuvants which had the most broad and durable protections vs. several coronaviruses. Not only most of the Omicron strains but also MERS and other zoonotic viruses which have the potential to jump to humans. So they tested bat viruses and pangolin viruses.
(Obviously these researchers are operating from the hypothesis that covid-19 was a zoonotic virus which jumped to humans, not some lab leak nonsense.)
They produced a vaccine based on these findings and tested in macaques which showed much more broad and durable protection than current covid vaccines.
This research appears to have been funded by the Gates foundation, so perhaps no federal funding?
But people think the threat is over so why bother make more vaccines and treatments?
A little ad hoc analysis of UK patterns:
Data is covid positive hospital patients. The red line shows the ascending minimum which has changed trajectory for the first time in seven waves. The boxes* are the same size, the cadence of the first waves, where we can see future waves have been shorter. The last wave is very differently shaped, much broader.
Existing patterns would expect a new wave beginning in the next week or two.
* Apologies to the colour-blind.
Data is covid positive hospital patients. The red line shows the ascending minimum which has changed trajectory for the first time in seven waves. The boxes* are the same size, the cadence of the first waves, where we can see future waves have been shorter. The last wave is very differently shaped, much broader.
Existing patterns would expect a new wave beginning in the next week or two.
* Apologies to the colour-blind.
Slate Money Podcast host and chief financial correspondent of Axios has written a book about the recovery of the economy after the pandemic.
slate.com
So one of the first lessons he draws is that Steve Mnuchin helped save the economy. Salmon is no fan of Trump or the Republicans.
His contention is that the world barely recovered from 2008 Great Recession by the time covid hit. Despite all the complaints from Republicans, zero interest rates and QE by Bernanke didn't bring the economy back fully from 2008.
Monetary policy wasn't enough and what Obama and Democrats were able to pass as stimulus wasn't enough of a fiscal boost to complement the monetary policies.
So this was a conclusion that wasn't widely disseminated by many economists believed this and Mnuchin apparently believed it as well.
When covid hit, Mnuchin got Trump and the Republicans to pass the covid relief act, the first of which was $1 trillion. There was a lot of waste and fraud in disbursement but if they didn't pass it, we'd have been in a deeper hole.
Mnuchin had credibility with Trump because among other things, he was loyal. So when Charlottesville happened -- Jews will not replace us! -- Mnuchin, a Jew, backed Trump publicly unlike Gary Cohn, who resigned shortly after.
Also Trump wanted the economy to be as strong as possible in his re-election bid so he was inclined to do fiscal stimulus as Mnuchin advised.
Of course the money they put in the pockets of Americans, along with more money that Biden signed into law shortly after he was inaugurated, had all kinds of distorting effects on real estate and many other markets, which when combined with supply chain disruptions led to the highest inflation in 40 years.
Salmon cites some interesting facts and stats.
For instance, deaths of 18-25 year old males spiked during the pandemic, not because of covid but because of the side effects of covid. A lot of these deaths reflected people not caring or throwing caution to the wind so people auto accidents increased and people died from not wearing seat belts. Smoking and use of drugs also increased. The increase in smoking is unheard of because it's had a long history of declining for decades.
So it reflected a kind of YOLO mentality, which we've seen as lot of people stopped masking or avoiding crowded indoor places. Or they had to go to church choir and bars or concerts.
Another interesting data point, the prices of lobster rolls spiked. Why? Not because of labor costs. Salmon talked to an owner of a factory which made the lobster fillings which went into lobster rolls. His labor costs didn't increase at all but what he saw was spiking demand, so he was forced to raise prices so that his customers wouldn't sour on his inability to produce enough supply.
Again, reflects greater YOLO behavior.
But now, to combat high inflation, Fed is trying to slow down the economy and soft landing is far from guaranteed.
====================
Longer term, there will be continuing economic impact. I posted an article about how health care workers are among those hardest hit by Long Covid, unable to work. And we know a lot of nurses and even some doctors have left or plan to leave their profession from burnout, even if they didn't get sick themselves.
Health care was already a drag on the economy. Now costs are likely to continue a fast growth trajectory, since health care costs have been outpacing general inflation for decades.
Besides likely shortages of doctors and nurses, there will be more care and management required for greater incidence of chronic diseases -- diabetes, heart disease, strokes -- from patients even if they didn't become afflicted with long covid and had acute, debilitating symptoms.
Most of this is going to be invisible or not seen by most people, who've become inured to the high number of people lost the last 3 years and counting. Most were old people so they're not going to have direct impact on the economy, since they likely weren't working.
But even those who are still of working age and have escaped so far relatively unscathed are going to behave differently, impacting employers and those effects are going to reverberate throughout the economy.
Many white collar workers who've accumulated some wealth are now being selective in which jobs they choose to do, where they do it, under which terms. So a much greater number who will insist on WFH, not coming into the office -- maybe another form of YOLO.
This loss of workers coming into the offices regularly will have devastating economic impact on local economies, at least for the short term. Commercial real estate could be decimated, not to mention all the businesses which have developed around serving these workers daily -- restaurants which specialized on serving breakfast and lunch to these workers, stores, etc.
Several major cities will face budgetary collapses, leading to thousands of workers being dislocated. Level of basic services like police and firefighting, as well as public housing and social services could be cut back drastically.
Felix Wrote a Book!
Slate Money talks about Felix’s new book, The Phoenix Economy: Work, Life, and Money in the New Not Normal.
So one of the first lessons he draws is that Steve Mnuchin helped save the economy. Salmon is no fan of Trump or the Republicans.
His contention is that the world barely recovered from 2008 Great Recession by the time covid hit. Despite all the complaints from Republicans, zero interest rates and QE by Bernanke didn't bring the economy back fully from 2008.
Monetary policy wasn't enough and what Obama and Democrats were able to pass as stimulus wasn't enough of a fiscal boost to complement the monetary policies.
So this was a conclusion that wasn't widely disseminated by many economists believed this and Mnuchin apparently believed it as well.
When covid hit, Mnuchin got Trump and the Republicans to pass the covid relief act, the first of which was $1 trillion. There was a lot of waste and fraud in disbursement but if they didn't pass it, we'd have been in a deeper hole.
Mnuchin had credibility with Trump because among other things, he was loyal. So when Charlottesville happened -- Jews will not replace us! -- Mnuchin, a Jew, backed Trump publicly unlike Gary Cohn, who resigned shortly after.
Also Trump wanted the economy to be as strong as possible in his re-election bid so he was inclined to do fiscal stimulus as Mnuchin advised.
Of course the money they put in the pockets of Americans, along with more money that Biden signed into law shortly after he was inaugurated, had all kinds of distorting effects on real estate and many other markets, which when combined with supply chain disruptions led to the highest inflation in 40 years.
Salmon cites some interesting facts and stats.
For instance, deaths of 18-25 year old males spiked during the pandemic, not because of covid but because of the side effects of covid. A lot of these deaths reflected people not caring or throwing caution to the wind so people auto accidents increased and people died from not wearing seat belts. Smoking and use of drugs also increased. The increase in smoking is unheard of because it's had a long history of declining for decades.
So it reflected a kind of YOLO mentality, which we've seen as lot of people stopped masking or avoiding crowded indoor places. Or they had to go to church choir and bars or concerts.
Another interesting data point, the prices of lobster rolls spiked. Why? Not because of labor costs. Salmon talked to an owner of a factory which made the lobster fillings which went into lobster rolls. His labor costs didn't increase at all but what he saw was spiking demand, so he was forced to raise prices so that his customers wouldn't sour on his inability to produce enough supply.
Again, reflects greater YOLO behavior.
But now, to combat high inflation, Fed is trying to slow down the economy and soft landing is far from guaranteed.
====================
Longer term, there will be continuing economic impact. I posted an article about how health care workers are among those hardest hit by Long Covid, unable to work. And we know a lot of nurses and even some doctors have left or plan to leave their profession from burnout, even if they didn't get sick themselves.
Health care was already a drag on the economy. Now costs are likely to continue a fast growth trajectory, since health care costs have been outpacing general inflation for decades.
Besides likely shortages of doctors and nurses, there will be more care and management required for greater incidence of chronic diseases -- diabetes, heart disease, strokes -- from patients even if they didn't become afflicted with long covid and had acute, debilitating symptoms.
Most of this is going to be invisible or not seen by most people, who've become inured to the high number of people lost the last 3 years and counting. Most were old people so they're not going to have direct impact on the economy, since they likely weren't working.
But even those who are still of working age and have escaped so far relatively unscathed are going to behave differently, impacting employers and those effects are going to reverberate throughout the economy.
Many white collar workers who've accumulated some wealth are now being selective in which jobs they choose to do, where they do it, under which terms. So a much greater number who will insist on WFH, not coming into the office -- maybe another form of YOLO.
This loss of workers coming into the offices regularly will have devastating economic impact on local economies, at least for the short term. Commercial real estate could be decimated, not to mention all the businesses which have developed around serving these workers daily -- restaurants which specialized on serving breakfast and lunch to these workers, stores, etc.
Several major cities will face budgetary collapses, leading to thousands of workers being dislocated. Level of basic services like police and firefighting, as well as public housing and social services could be cut back drastically.
For the people who haven't fallen for the lab leak theory BS, here's some reporting about increasing likelihood of future pandemics from zoonotic viruses.
slate.com
First of all, there doesn't have to be some intermediary host to infect humans, as was posited about Covid.
Bats have been known to trigger Ebola outbreaks and in this case, rapid deaths from the Nepa virus, such as happened recently to a young Indian male, who got infected from consuming fruit which had been partially eaten by bats, leaving bite marks on the fruit.
The patient died in two days, in a part of India where Nepa virus infections were until that point unknown.
The cause is the expansion of "jump zone" or regions where humans encroach into habitats of these zoonotic hosts.
For instance, in Laos, there are now high-speed rail lines into places which were predominantly inhabited by bats. These were built by the Chinese to move people and material back to China. However, this modern transport is also being used to expand tourism into these areas, including tours into bat caves.
Wouldn't be the first thing I'd be looking to do as a tourist in SE Asia. Maybe the only things worse would be frequenting wet markets or going for some submersion "therapy" in bat guano.
But the point is, humans are expanding into places which are full of species, particularly bats, which could infect them with zoonotic pathogens.
How the Next Pandemic Starts
“Jump zones” have grown by 16 percent over the last two decades—and they’re getting bigger.
First of all, there doesn't have to be some intermediary host to infect humans, as was posited about Covid.
Bats have been known to trigger Ebola outbreaks and in this case, rapid deaths from the Nepa virus, such as happened recently to a young Indian male, who got infected from consuming fruit which had been partially eaten by bats, leaving bite marks on the fruit.
The patient died in two days, in a part of India where Nepa virus infections were until that point unknown.
The cause is the expansion of "jump zone" or regions where humans encroach into habitats of these zoonotic hosts.
For instance, in Laos, there are now high-speed rail lines into places which were predominantly inhabited by bats. These were built by the Chinese to move people and material back to China. However, this modern transport is also being used to expand tourism into these areas, including tours into bat caves.
Wouldn't be the first thing I'd be looking to do as a tourist in SE Asia. Maybe the only things worse would be frequenting wet markets or going for some submersion "therapy" in bat guano.
But the point is, humans are expanding into places which are full of species, particularly bats, which could infect them with zoonotic pathogens.
The RECOVER initiative is a NIH-funded program to study Long Covid.
Based on a study of almost 10,000 participants, RECOVER has started to define as well as quantify the problem of LC.
They start by defining 12 symptoms and scoring each to meet a threshold of 12 points for a LC diagnosis.
These defining symptoms are affected 10-23 % of the sample of people studied by this program but they suspect overall incidence of LC is about 10% of infections.
Incidence of LC was higher in the unvaccinated and those who had multiple infections.
Some LC patients have had all these and other symptoms. They think the symptom list is too small.
Researchers found that patients tended to have multiple symptoms, across different parts of the disease, making LC a "total body disease."
Based on a study of almost 10,000 participants, RECOVER has started to define as well as quantify the problem of LC.
They start by defining 12 symptoms and scoring each to meet a threshold of 12 points for a LC diagnosis.
These defining symptoms are affected 10-23 % of the sample of people studied by this program but they suspect overall incidence of LC is about 10% of infections.
Incidence of LC was higher in the unvaccinated and those who had multiple infections.
Some LC patients have had all these and other symptoms. They think the symptom list is too small.
Researchers found that patients tended to have multiple symptoms, across different parts of the disease, making LC a "total body disease."
Really interesting preprint here, summarised in the following twitter thread:
Immunocompromised folk aside, it seems that 60% of 'normal' people mount a broad response to Covid vaccination/infection with specific B and T cells becoming greatly enriched but the other 40% mount a more narrow response with fewer of these B and T cells produced. Unsurprisingly, those with a 'broad' response appeared to have better protection against Omicron BA.2 than the 'narrow' responders.
It strikes me that it is mostly likely to be genetic differences which decide whether you are a broad or narrow responder to vaccination/prior infection. It might ultimately be possible to develop a test so you had an idea whether you were 'broad' or 'narrow' and, therefore, perhaps the likelihood of being at greater risk. This could be helpful to know as regards organisation of vaccination programmes.
What also struck me is that this could end up being natural selection at work. The claim that pathogens mutate to become less severe doesn't make much sense in regards to a disease such as Covid, but if there's a chance that 40% of the population are more at risk of severe illness (and possibly Long Covid?), then it could certainly have a longer-term effect on the population. This, of course, assumes that the 'narrow' responders are more likely to suffer from severe illness/Long Covid. It almost certainly won't be as clearcut as this.
Immunocompromised folk aside, it seems that 60% of 'normal' people mount a broad response to Covid vaccination/infection with specific B and T cells becoming greatly enriched but the other 40% mount a more narrow response with fewer of these B and T cells produced. Unsurprisingly, those with a 'broad' response appeared to have better protection against Omicron BA.2 than the 'narrow' responders.
It strikes me that it is mostly likely to be genetic differences which decide whether you are a broad or narrow responder to vaccination/prior infection. It might ultimately be possible to develop a test so you had an idea whether you were 'broad' or 'narrow' and, therefore, perhaps the likelihood of being at greater risk. This could be helpful to know as regards organisation of vaccination programmes.
What also struck me is that this could end up being natural selection at work. The claim that pathogens mutate to become less severe doesn't make much sense in regards to a disease such as Covid, but if there's a chance that 40% of the population are more at risk of severe illness (and possibly Long Covid?), then it could certainly have a longer-term effect on the population. This, of course, assumes that the 'narrow' responders are more likely to suffer from severe illness/Long Covid. It almost certainly won't be as clearcut as this.
I think there's a strong chance of developing better vaccines.
For instance, the new Shingrix vaccine is way more effective than the previous one.
But they're learning more and more about the virus and the immune response. I linked a paper above about them identifying the most effective Memory B Cells and antibodies so vaccines designed with that data may hold some promise.
That is if there's any interest in developing, testing and manufacturing newer generations of vaccines.
People have kind of said they're done with the pandemic -- trying to avoid infections, getting boosters, avoiding risky venues, etc.
So there may not be enough interest or market demand for better vaccines, even though the virus will still infect and re-infect millions of people each day.
For instance, the new Shingrix vaccine is way more effective than the previous one.
But they're learning more and more about the virus and the immune response. I linked a paper above about them identifying the most effective Memory B Cells and antibodies so vaccines designed with that data may hold some promise.
That is if there's any interest in developing, testing and manufacturing newer generations of vaccines.
People have kind of said they're done with the pandemic -- trying to avoid infections, getting boosters, avoiding risky venues, etc.
So there may not be enough interest or market demand for better vaccines, even though the virus will still infect and re-infect millions of people each day.
Until more is known about Long Covid and some potential treatments are developed, the pandemic is far from over.
The data indicates that you're at as much risk of developing it after subsequent infections as your first hit of the virus and vaccination doesn't remove all risk. With multiple waves of infection every year, it's going to remain a risk, though perhaps more so for some people.
Healthcare spending certainly doesn't seem to have ramped up to help cope with this and, with more infections, it's probable that medical staff are more likely to be affected with longer term issues.
Better vaccines would certainly be the easiest way of dealing with the risk, but there need to be other mitigations in place as well. Ventilation, air cleaning etc. It simply makes sense in hospitals, surgeries etc.
The data indicates that you're at as much risk of developing it after subsequent infections as your first hit of the virus and vaccination doesn't remove all risk. With multiple waves of infection every year, it's going to remain a risk, though perhaps more so for some people.
Healthcare spending certainly doesn't seem to have ramped up to help cope with this and, with more infections, it's probable that medical staff are more likely to be affected with longer term issues.
Better vaccines would certainly be the easiest way of dealing with the risk, but there need to be other mitigations in place as well. Ventilation, air cleaning etc. It simply makes sense in hospitals, surgeries etc.
Remember how conservatives used to tout the Swedish model, how the faster herd immunity was achieved, the quicker they'd recover from the pandemic?
Of course we found out there were reinfections and reinfections led to greater likelihood of covid.
Now researchers, including those fro Sweden, looks at the whole of the Swedish response.
Among the highest death rates in the industrialized world of course and really callous policies:
First they quickly wrote off seniors:
www.latimes.com
Then they used children to more quickly spread covid, while ignoring or denying that they could be vulnerable to covid.
Amazingly, nobody has been prosecuted. Not sure if anyone's been fired from these govt. jobs.
Of course we found out there were reinfections and reinfections led to greater likelihood of covid.
Now researchers, including those fro Sweden, looks at the whole of the Swedish response.
Among the highest death rates in the industrialized world of course and really callous policies:
First they quickly wrote off seniors:
Column: Did Sweden beat the pandemic by refusing to lock down? No, its record is disastrous
A new study shows just how badly Sweden fared in the pandemic.
www.latimes.com
Then they used children to more quickly spread covid, while ignoring or denying that they could be vulnerable to covid.
Amazingly, nobody has been prosecuted. Not sure if anyone's been fired from these govt. jobs.
Op Ed by researchers advocating for govt. funding of a universal vaccine.
Their study claims that the cost of pandemics will be $700 billion a year or trillions in consecutive years of pandemic like the one we've been through in deaths and lost productivity.
Read in The Hill: https://apple.news/A-Rr9o_QYTEq5Isp82WKgUw
So it's kind of a penny wise, pound foolish argument.
They argue that it's the govt. which must do it because private companies won't invest to develop new vaccines for future outbreaks.
They also predict a variant as damaging as the delta wave to emerge within the next 7 years, based on current rates of mutations.
Their study claims that the cost of pandemics will be $700 billion a year or trillions in consecutive years of pandemic like the one we've been through in deaths and lost productivity.
Read in The Hill: https://apple.news/A-Rr9o_QYTEq5Isp82WKgUw
So it's kind of a penny wise, pound foolish argument.
They argue that it's the govt. which must do it because private companies won't invest to develop new vaccines for future outbreaks.
They also predict a variant as damaging as the delta wave to emerge within the next 7 years, based on current rates of mutations.
UK dashboard finally updated.
We're well past the point of another wave keeping the 3-month cadence with the past 6 waves - we should be in the middle of another spike if things were the same still but we're still trending downwards.
One theory I guess is that this is common for novel viruses - multiple waves of rapid, unrestricted evolution until biological equilibrium is reached. The future would then be slower evolution and the periodic break out of a new variant that bypasses the bulk of innate defences and creates a new wave of infections.
We're well past the point of another wave keeping the 3-month cadence with the past 6 waves - we should be in the middle of another spike if things were the same still but we're still trending downwards.
One theory I guess is that this is common for novel viruses - multiple waves of rapid, unrestricted evolution until biological equilibrium is reached. The future would then be slower evolution and the periodic break out of a new variant that bypasses the bulk of innate defences and creates a new wave of infections.
The NHS booster programme is still in place, but seems to be quite targeted. I was offered one as I'm immunosuppressed following chemotherapy earlier in the year. Judging by the letter I received It's that cohort and the over 75s that they are prioritising.
Visiting hospital recently I noticed that the perspex screens around reception desks, etc. have been removed in the past month or so, mask wearing is no longer compulsory and many of the staff aren't wearing one either.
Visiting hospital recently I noticed that the perspex screens around reception desks, etc. have been removed in the past month or so, mask wearing is no longer compulsory and many of the staff aren't wearing one either.
The perspex screens are a foolish idea in any case. It's an airborne virus and screens only reduce airflow, making it more likely to linger in the air. What we need is ventilation and air filtration as that would have more of an impact on reducing infections of both Covid and other airborne pathogens, of which there are many.
The immunosuppressed have be sacrificed at the altar of normality and there will continue to be a significant number of deaths and Long Covid cases in the highest at risk groups. Places such as cancer clinics should really be doubling down on the filtration, ventilation and masking but they aren't and this will cause significant morbidity.
It will be interesting to see if we get any variants emerging which can (almost) completely evade prior immunity whether from infection, vaccination or 'hybrid'. It looks as though the next round of boosters will be monovalent, probably based on XBB.1.5, and this will hopefully prove quite effective at protection of those most at risk. Unfortunately, those who are unable to mount much of an immune response to the vaccines are shit out of luck, because that's the only concession governments are willing to make to them.
The immunosuppressed have be sacrificed at the altar of normality and there will continue to be a significant number of deaths and Long Covid cases in the highest at risk groups. Places such as cancer clinics should really be doubling down on the filtration, ventilation and masking but they aren't and this will cause significant morbidity.
It will be interesting to see if we get any variants emerging which can (almost) completely evade prior immunity whether from infection, vaccination or 'hybrid'. It looks as though the next round of boosters will be monovalent, probably based on XBB.1.5, and this will hopefully prove quite effective at protection of those most at risk. Unfortunately, those who are unable to mount much of an immune response to the vaccines are shit out of luck, because that's the only concession governments are willing to make to them.
That is probably because your/LA Times report or the summary in Nature does not seem to have any basis in reality.
Sweden didn't have higher death rates and other complications from covid?
They didn't refuse care to elderly?
Although I remember a study showing that people who wore glasses tended to have lower rates of infection in the Wuhan outbreak.