Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

You can get Covid without being a patient. 2/3rds of UK's data is from people who didn't have medical contact for their C19 prior to LC.
Bah, apparently 'patient' in English then does not have the general meaning of being afflicted with something, with or without involving medical treatment by doctor. That is what I intended with the word.

Not even nearly everyone still has had covid.

The linked Nature article states a ballpark number 10% of LC cases from covid cases.

Anyway, I think this debate has run its course already so I'll get my coat.
 
How many public people are known to be diagnosed woth LC? As in, Politicians, Writers, Journalists, Athletes, Famous Business Executives, Actors, Public Speakers, Artists, Entertainers etc....
 
A North Carolina journalist lost his 6-year old son to rare disorder.

While grieving, some anti-vaxx ghouls taunted him on social media, blaming him for getting him vaccinated for covid.

I’m a North Carolina–based journalist who specializes in countering misinformation on social media. I know that Twitter, Facebook, and other networks amplify bad information; that their algorithms feed on anger and division; that anonymity and distance bring out the worst in some people online. And yet I had never anticipated that anyone would mock and terrorize a grieving parent. I’ve now received thousands of harassing posts. Some people emailed me at work.

For the record, my son saw some of the finest pediatric-ICU doctors in the world. He was in fact vaccinated against COVID-19. None of his doctors deemed that relevant to his medical condition. They likened his death to a lightning strike.
Strangers online saw in our story a conspiracy—a cover-up of childhood fatalities caused by COVID vaccines, a ploy to protect Big Pharma.

To them, what happened to my son was not a tragedy. It was karma for suckered parents like me.

Although some abusive posts showed up on my public Facebook page, the problem started on Twitter—whose new CEO, Elon Musk, gutted the platform’s content-moderation team after taking over.


Read in The Atlantic: https://apple.news/AuEgT44XMRQiWAM44xxTdcA
 
Another strong set of results for a nasal vaccine, which outperformed the BioNTech (Pfizer) mRNA vaccine and a adenovirus vaccine in terms of both mucosal and systemic immunity.

They used a live attenuated virus or LAV, administered intranasally on Syrian hamsters.

Our results show that sCPD9 vaccination elicited the most robust immunity, including rapid viral clearance, reduced tissue damage, fast differentiation of pre-plasmablasts, strong systemic and mucosal humoral responses, and rapid recall of memory T cells from lung tissue after challenge with heterologous SARS-CoV-2. Overall, our results demonstrate that live-attenuated vaccines offer advantages over currently available COVID-19 vaccines.


However there's a wrinkle, aside from the fact that scaling up LAVs must be a lot more challenging than mRNA:

. Vaccination with sCPD9 was applied by intranasal instillation under anaesthesia (1 × 105 focus-forming units (f.f.u.), 60 µl)53

Maybe because these were animals being tested? So they could have self-administered nasal sprays presumably?

But who's going to fund these nasal vaccines? It's going to take a lot of capital to scale up production and there are several being developed so whichever company takes it on, they're not going to be able to claim a captive market like Moderna and Pfizer.

Though as time goes by, more and more people think the virus is no longer a threat so fewer people get boosters with each round. The situation is stable now because so may people have been vaccinated, infected or both. However, that immunity wanes and if there's a strain which is completely different from Omicron, we could be back at square one, with existing vaccines having very reduced efficacy, as was the case with the mRNA vaccines until they made bivalent boosters.
 
However there's a wrinkle, aside from the fact that scaling up LAVs must be a lot more challenging than mRNA:


Maybe because these were animals being tested? So they could have self-administered nasal sprays presumably?
Yeah, I'd guess they ran out of patience trying to get the suckers self-administer the spray, then got exhausted running after them and trying to hold them still...
 
Researchers from Cornell, University of Wisconsin, Scripps Research and University of Chicago have identified the broadly neutralizing antibody which has shown effectiveness against older variants and 7 Omicron sub-variants.

The S728-1157 could form the basis for new monoclonal antibody therapies, which stopped working with the dominance of Omicron variants in the last year or two.

But more importantly, this antibody could become the basis for new, more effective vaccines based on the state of the spike protein:

The research could also guide the design of new vaccines that rely on the spike protein to stimulate the production of antibodies. The team found the configuration of the spike matters. Specifically, the immune system produces more broadly effective antibodies like S728-1157 when it encounters spikes in an open conformation like the one they would assume to attack a cell. The current mRNA-based vaccines, especially omicron-based, however, tend to produce more closed spikes.

“The take home message here is that the next generation of vaccines should try to stabilize the spike in a more open position,” Dr. Changrob said.



 
Covid is still one of the leading causes of deaths in the US, as the immunity wall which may have prevented a big winter wave weakens

There are still conspiracy theories that doctors and medical examiners are being motivated to attribute deaths to covid falsely while others say if anything the death toll is an undercount as excess deaths remain higher than pre-pandemic excess deaths AND also above the official number of deaths attributed to covid.

The actual toll exacted by the virus remains a subject of sharp debate. Since the earliest days of the pandemic, skeptics have argued that physicians and families had incentives to overcount virus deaths, and pointed to errors by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in how it has reported a wide array of covid data. Those arguments were bolstered earlier this year by a Washington Post op-ed by Leana Wen that argued the nation’s recent covid toll is inflated by including people dying with covid, as well as from covid — for instance, gunshot victims who also test positive for the virus — a conclusion echoed by critics of the pandemic response, and amplified on conservative networks.

“There’s so much corruption here, and it’s all driven by those numbers being artificially elevated,” Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Tex.), a physician who formerly worked in the White House and now serves on the House panel probing the coronavirus response, said on Newsmax in January.

Health experts and federal officials reject such criticisms, saying they are confident in the CDC’s data — figures that are drawn from medical examiners and coroners completing death certificates and concluding that covid was the primary or contributing cause of death.

“If anything, [the death toll] could even be an undercount,” said Debra Houry, the CDC’s chief medical officer. For instance, Houry described a scenario where an elderly patient sickened by covid suffered a traumatic fall. “Maybe covid [testing] wasn’t done on the autopsy, so that’s something that’s going to be missed.”


Outside researchers also have pointed to a nationwide pattern of excess deaths, or the number of deaths exceeding what would have been predicted for that time period, which has surpassed the number of deaths attributed to covid.

“The non-covid death rate has not returned to pre-pandemic levels,” said Andrew Stokes, a Boston University researcher who is part of a team investigating the rise in excess deaths.
“We believe that there’s an invisible or hidden burden of covid that has persisted essentially into the present, and those deaths are going unrecorded.”

Read in The Washington Post: https://apple.news/ACQv80QeHTB2A_JmOQlkFnw
 
The excess deaths is an ongoing issue though, as we're apparently seeing more people dying from non-Covid causes than they were pre-Covid. At this point it all seems conjecture and conspiracy theories what's causing that uptick, from number wrangling (Covid deaths being suppressed) to anti-Covid measures causing problems (long-term vaccine issues, depression-aggravated health issues) to Covid causing long-term problems (strained health services, health backlogs).

I doubt we'll ever get a proper investigation and insight.
 
Some jurisdictions like FL have been actively suppressing numbers. Trump wanted to do that as well nationwide but couldn't once the outbreak really accelerated.

The linked article talks about one hospital in Boston going back and looking closely at all the case histories and finding more.

Covid has been implicated in strokes and various organ problems. Early in the pandemic they were acute, like lung and kidney failure leading to death or transplants.

But they could be causing apparent heart or other organ failure from remnant sequelae. I remember when Derek Lowe, a pharma researcher who blogs, got covid for a short period, he wanted to take Paxlovid because he didn't want to risk sequelae even though he had a mild infection.

Some researchers will try to cross tabulate overall excess deaths, covid deaths and excess deaths from things like strokes, heart disease, different types of organ failures.

But that may be years in the future and we may still be dealing with covid, with no better vaccines or treatments than those we have now.
 
The excess deaths is an ongoing issue though, as we're apparently seeing more people dying from non-Covid causes than they were pre-Covid. At this point it all seems conjecture and conspiracy theories what's causing that uptick, from number wrangling (Covid deaths being suppressed) to anti-Covid measures causing problems (long-term vaccine issues, depression-aggravated health issues) to Covid causing long-term problems (strained health services, health backlogs).

It tends to be the conspiracy theorists who push the line in bold, especially in regard to the frequency of vaccine injuries. The data available for vaccination shows your risk of death from all causes is much higher if unvaccinated. I don't have it to hand now (read it months ago!) but I've seen data which seems to indicate deaths caused by depression-related issues (i.e. suicide, substance abuse, etc) don't seem to have increased to any degree here in the UK, but there were some numbers in the US which indicated a potential issue over there. Not sure whether the predicted wave of deaths due to undiagnosed cancers is still to come, of course.

In the UK, the excess deaths are probably due in part to increased morbidity following Covid infections and in part due to the ongoing collapse in the NHS due to the pressures caused by the long-term underfunding and the impact of Covid. The government doesn't have a plan to deal with either or any interest in increasing funding.

If hospitals are having to deal with several waves of Covid hospitalisations each year which are each greater than the single Influenza wave we tend to see in the same period, something has got to give and failing to increase the resources available is braindead, especially given our aging population (even taking into account the fall in life expectancy we've seen).
 
It tends to be the conspiracy theorists who push the line in bold, especially in regard to the frequency of vaccine injuries.

Both are conspiratorial theorizings. Its just that you side more with one than the other, and you are using "conspiracy theory" as a dispariging term. Also, beware of media nut-picking. They love to make loud minorities seem larger than they are because the algo likes it and it generates clicks. Lets try to de-escalate with the tribalistic moralizing and oversimplifying stereotypes.
 
The issue tends to be that the conspiracy theorists (which is what they are) attribute vast numbers of deaths to vaccine injuries which simply isn't the truth. Dumpster-dives into VAERS and so forth which are designed to sow FUD about vaccine safety. Lest we forget, billions of doses of various vaccine types have now been given and no signal in the data exists to show anything other than the fact that they are extremely safe indeed and remain safer than infection without prior vaccination even in low risk groups.

Vaccine injuries certainly exist, albeit in extremely small numbers, and all the grifters promoting their nonsense (often to help line their own pockets) doesn't help the people who really have suffered problems from them. Too much noise, not enough action. I'm thinking about the likes of the Hart group here who we know from the leaked chatlogs were deliberately pushing misinformation about the vaccines. And they are still doing so, even now.
 
Biden administration managed to scrounge together some money to fund a proactive program to develop new vaccines and treatments for covid and other beta coronaviruses:

Project NextGen, announced Monday, has three primary goals, which Osterholm and colleagues laid out in a "road map" in February: Develop a nasal vaccine to prevent infection as well as severe disease; develop longer-lasting vaccines; and create “broader” vaccines that protect against all variants and several coronaviruses.

The plan also includes funding to develop more durable monoclonal antibodies resistant to new variants, according to the administration.
Antibodies were highly effective treatments earlier in the pandemic but have not been able to keep up with the virus as it evolved and are no longer available.

The administration said the initial allocation of $5 billion for Project NextGen will be financed through money saved from contracts costing less than originally estimated. The investment was first reported Monday by The Washington Post.

Dr. Gregory Poland, director of the Mayo Clinic's Vaccine Research Group and who was involved in the earlier road map, said he and others have been advising the White House since last summer to launch something like Project NextGen.

The funding is a start, he said, "but much more will be needed to accomplish all three goals," he said. "The need, though, is urgent and now – something government generally doesn’t do well – hence the key will be prioritization and implementation."

Why do we need new coronavirus vaccines?

When today's vaccines were developed, speed was a priority along with safety and effectiveness. They were 95% effective at preventing all disease when first released in late 2020. But their effectiveness against mild disease in particular wanes over just a handful of months.


Protection also may not be as good as the virus evolves. The current bivalent booster is aimed at both the original virus and the BA.5 variant.

But SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is the third new coronavirus to pop up in the past two decades, after Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). If and when a fourth turns up, it would be great to already have a vaccine that could protect against it, said Osterholm, who directs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

A nasal vaccine is the third item on the wish list. The idea is that by delivering a vaccine directly to the area where the virus enters the body, scientists could set up a barrier of protection to prevent even mild infections and transmission from one person to the next.

"I think an initiative like this is much needed and should have been put in place much sooner," said John Moore, an immunologist at Weill Cornell Medical College in New York.


Paul Offit is skeptical of these goals:

Dr. Paul Offit, a pediatrician who directs the Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, is skeptical any of the goals are realistic.

Researchers have been trying for more than 40 years to develop vaccines against multiple strains of flu and against HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. Both have proven elusive, he said, because the viruses mutate so much, as does SARS-CoV-2.


Meanwhile, nasal vaccines are still being tested in clinical trials, so it's not yet clear how effective they'll be against COVID-19. A nasal vaccine for the flu doesn't provide any more protection than a shot, Offit said, and it's most effective in children who have never been exposed to the flu virus. At this point, nearly every American has already been exposed to the virus that causes COVID-19.

But no medical expert seems to have come out against the program, which will initially only have a fraction of Operation Warp Speed's $30 billion funding.

Unfortunately, I think it's going to be very difficult to get any more govt. funding for this research because Republicans will not vote for such projects, as long as it's a Democrat in the WH.

It would take a Republican president along with the virus returning with a vengeance to the acute phase that the world went through in spring of 2020 and some other winter waves, where hospitals were out of capacity and the death count was pegging the meter

Even then, I'm not so sure there would be enough GOP votes for funding.

Unfortunately the problem now is still high number of deaths and the possibility that a lot of conditions like diabetes and heart disease are being increased due to covid, so the problems are not as visible as ambulance sirens going off all the time and morgues being unable to process corpses fast enough so they had to store them in big refrigerated trucks.
 
It's Deborah Birx who didn't do enough to push back against Trump, especially about injecting or ingesting bleach.

Now she says apathy from the administration as well as the populace in accepting a high level of infections, deaths, and potential Long Covid cases.

“Right now, we’re just accepting that 270,000 Americans died last year,” she said. “Two-hundred and seventy thousand. We’re going to easily lose over 100,000 this year. That, to me, is not success.”

Birx continued: “You don’t want to back yourself into controlling the pandemic because all the vulnerable Americans have died. That’s not how you win in public health.”

Annual summer and winter surges

As for the future of the pandemic, nothing is certain. Birx points out that wastewater levels of the virus are virtually the same as they were a year ago, and that every year so far we’ve seen seasonal surges—signaling that the virus is now seasonal, like the flu.

When it comes to COVID, “we’ll have a summer surge, and we’ll have a winter surge,” she said, adding that recent surges have become less dramatic due to a high level of population immunity.

It remains to be seen whether COVID becomes more deadly, she says. Omicron has become so highly transmissible that it’s virtually stuck in evolutionary stasis, with each major new variant incredibly similar to the previous. To get unstuck, sometimes viruses will evolve to become less infectious but more severe—”so it’s just a matter of tracking it.”

Americans have accepted repeat infections, Birx says—and while such frequent infections have helped blunt spikes in cases, they also bring along with them a “high level of long COVID.”


She says the number of deaths and hospitalizations will spike above current levels if strains eventually are able to evade Paxlovid, one of the few treatments we have left, after all the monoclonal antibodies have been rendered useless.

Meanwhile govenerment is not doing enough to prioritize or fund new vaccines and treatments.
 
Hmmm. The pharmaceutical companies can certainly develop new antibodies. The fact that the newer variants evade the antibodies which were effective in the past, doesn't mean that others can't be developed and produced. The problem, of course, is cost and timescale.

The disappointing thing is that the various governments are, in general, not putting much effort into funding new vaccines which could prove more effective. It should be an ongoing process as we see with influenza each year. It is simply bizarre how we continue to vaccinate so many people against the influenza each year but so many governments are pushing the narrative that we just have to 'live with' Covid without vaccination for the majority of the population, even though the number of deaths from and costs and long-term effects of Covid are so much higher than the flu!

Here in the UK, children are vaccinated against the flu, in part to help protect their elders. They aren't vaccinated against Covid, however, even though it kills so many more people than the flu!
 
It's apathy and the desire to return to normal.

So there's denial that thousands are still dying every week and that excess deaths are way above official covid deaths across most countries.

Politicians are seeing continued policies and emphasis on reducing infections, hospitalizations and deaths as highly unpopular with the populace, who want to get back to socializing in bars, going to concerts, etc.

You know, all the super spreader venues.

So they're going to be quiet about covid and hope there aren't huge surges which lead to big waves, hospitals and morgues overflowing with corpses.

In the US, they can't get new funding passed for better vaccines and treatments. A lot of pharmaceutical companies will struggle to sustain research, fund trials of new covid vaccines and drugs, because of the dominance of Pfizer and Moderna. Not only do they have huge market shares, they probably have cornered a lot of the manufacturing and distribution infrastructure.

In fact, I don't even know if either of these companies are working on next generation vaccines, which include nasal vaccines, which wouldn't use mRNA but probably inactivated virus. They have no desire to risk coming out with alternate vaccine technologies when they have a captive but declining market -- fewer people get boosters with each new booster round, at least in the US.
 
Early data from some nasal vaccines, including those being deployed in China and India, are at best mixed.

Animal tests are promising but the results don't always translate when tested on humans.

But attempts to re-create these results in people yielded mixed results. After an intranasal version of the AstraZeneca vaccine roused great defenses in animals, a team at Oxford moved the immunization into a small human trial—and last month, published results showing that it hardly triggered any immune response, even as a booster to an in-the-arm shot. Adam Ritchie, one of the Oxford immunologists behind the study, told me the results don’t necessarily spell disaster for other mucosal attempts, and that with more finagling, AstraZeneca’s vaccine might someday do better up the nose.


A nasal vaccine for the flu shows some efficacy for children but not for adults because the immunity they have from influenza wipes out the vaccine.

So they're trying viral vectors or spike protein approaches.

But many caveats remain as this development work progresses:

The mucosal COVID vaccines in India and China, at least, have reportedly shown a bit more promise in small, early human trials. Bharat’s info sheet on its nasal-drop vaccine—the Indian riff on Diamond’s recipe—says it bested another locally made vaccine, Covaxin, at tickling out antibodies, while provoking fewer side effects. China’s inhaled vaccine, too, seems to do reasonably well on the human-antibody front. But antibodies aren’t the same as true effectiveness: Vaccine makers and local health ministries, experts told me, have yet to release large-scale, real-world data showing that the vaccines substantially cut down on transmission or infection. And although some studies have hinted that nasal protection can stick around in animals for many, many months, there’s no guarantee the same will be true in humans, in whom mucosal antibodies, in particular, “are kind of known to wane pretty quickly,” Langel told me.
 
The wonders of the immune system - it works so incredibly well that it destroys much of the stuff we do to try and help it work better!

I remember earlier in the pandemic, there was lots of talk of other vaccine delivery systems such as intradermal and various other techniques. I wonder if one of these might help? Must be tricky to try and get an effective nasal vaccine as the tissue up the nose is very delicate so they can't really force it in there in the way that we do with needles elsewhere.

Hopefully, they will continue to try to develop these technologies, despite the fact that most governments are trying to pretend Covid is no longer a problem.
 
Reason to develop these techniques extends well beyond just Covid! Not least, exposure of the immune system to a vaccine through the pathways of the pathogen's natural exposure must surely be safer. For the body, there's a world of difference between a virus entering the nose, infecting, and spreading from there versus an antigen being injected right into the blood and suddenly being everywhere.
 
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