Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]
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digitalwanderer
Legend
You have to opt in to be able to see any posts in RPSC, it's part of the great compromise.
In your personal settings under your account you'll find "Join User Groups", if you choose RPSC you'll gain access to it and discover the wonderfully dark underbelly of B3D arguments.
Beware, the dragons lay there...
EDITED BITS: Added a direct link to the setting since it was a user neutral URL.
"Religion, Politics & Socioeconomic Climate."
It's where those sort of heated discussions take place since there's no moderation there.
digitalwanderer
Legend
Not exactly true, it's self moderated. The members sort of decide what is/isn't allowable in a loose agreement with the mods that they are totally able to change their mind about or over rule whenever they need to.
But for the most part it really is self-moderated, and it works. That's why it's sort of hidden, it's where all the stuff they don't let you talk about in General can be discussed. It was made because General was getting so heated that B3D was going to close it, RPSC was the compromise that saved it.
So if you start talking political or anything else controversial and heated you're asked to take it to RPS&C where it belongs. Still get to discuss it, but don't annoy the majority of members here who'd prefer not every thread get side tracked in to politics, religion, culture, etc. It works pretty well.
Hmmm. Prof Bell has form for making a number of 'boosterish' comments about the Oxford vaccine during the pandemic. There are also some concerns as to whether he may potentially stand to benefit from the development of he vaccine in the future:
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n490
However, he's probably correct when considering the rollout of the vaccine around the world. The politicking undoubtedly affected the confidence in the jab and, while doses of the mRNA vaccines weren't available in great enough numbers, the AZ could probably have saved a lot of lives, despite being seen as second best. It wasn't just the politicking, of course. There was the reduced efficacy against Beta, which meant that South Africans refused the vaccine - which was unfortunate as Delta then came out of nowhere and the AZ vaccine was pretty effective against that variant. The production issues were well-reported as well - a lot more doses would have been given in Europe during the early months of 2021 but for the manufacturing problems. The biggest issue, of course, was the clotting problems which meant, for example, that the UK ended up disposing of 600,000 doses which couldn't be given to the younger age groups due to government recommendations. This will be why nothing has been mentioned about Omicron-specific vaccines from AZ. They tested a Beta-specific variant, but I'm guessing that, until the clotting problems are resolved, we'll not be seeing too many more Covid vaccine developments from AZ.
It must be said that Pfizer have done an absolutely remarkable job to ramp up production so rapidly and Moderna aren't doing too bad following up behind. Other vaccines are now becoming available and Novavax looks especially interesting. I saw this thread on twitter the other day which looks at the study quietly released by Novavax at the end of December:
If the author (a Stanford professor with knowledge of the field) is correct in his analysis, then Novavax might be extremely effective even against Omicron. It seems odd that Novavax aren't shouting from the rooftops if this is the case. Perhaps due to the production issues we know they've been encountering? No point in promising the Earth, if you can't actually supply it in nearly sufficient doses. I do wonder whether the production problems are due to the Matrix-M adjuvant and not the vaccine itself? The same adjuvant is used with the very efficaceous Malaria vaccine announced last year so perhaps that is taking priority? There are obviously only so many Chilean Soapbark trees around!
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n490
However, he's probably correct when considering the rollout of the vaccine around the world. The politicking undoubtedly affected the confidence in the jab and, while doses of the mRNA vaccines weren't available in great enough numbers, the AZ could probably have saved a lot of lives, despite being seen as second best. It wasn't just the politicking, of course. There was the reduced efficacy against Beta, which meant that South Africans refused the vaccine - which was unfortunate as Delta then came out of nowhere and the AZ vaccine was pretty effective against that variant. The production issues were well-reported as well - a lot more doses would have been given in Europe during the early months of 2021 but for the manufacturing problems. The biggest issue, of course, was the clotting problems which meant, for example, that the UK ended up disposing of 600,000 doses which couldn't be given to the younger age groups due to government recommendations. This will be why nothing has been mentioned about Omicron-specific vaccines from AZ. They tested a Beta-specific variant, but I'm guessing that, until the clotting problems are resolved, we'll not be seeing too many more Covid vaccine developments from AZ.
It must be said that Pfizer have done an absolutely remarkable job to ramp up production so rapidly and Moderna aren't doing too bad following up behind. Other vaccines are now becoming available and Novavax looks especially interesting. I saw this thread on twitter the other day which looks at the study quietly released by Novavax at the end of December:
If the author (a Stanford professor with knowledge of the field) is correct in his analysis, then Novavax might be extremely effective even against Omicron. It seems odd that Novavax aren't shouting from the rooftops if this is the case. Perhaps due to the production issues we know they've been encountering? No point in promising the Earth, if you can't actually supply it in nearly sufficient doses. I do wonder whether the production problems are due to the Matrix-M adjuvant and not the vaccine itself? The same adjuvant is used with the very efficaceous Malaria vaccine announced last year so perhaps that is taking priority? There are obviously only so many Chilean Soapbark trees around!
Study posted by CDC on preliminary data show sharp declines in booster efficacy after 4 months.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/02/11/covid-boosters-omicron-protection/
Some people got their boosters in September. We're not over the Omicron wave yet.
Are we going to follow what the Israelis did? They gave boosters to 18 and over by January?
Let's get on with it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/02/11/covid-boosters-omicron-protection/
Some people got their boosters in September. We're not over the Omicron wave yet.
Are we going to follow what the Israelis did? They gave boosters to 18 and over by January?
Let's get on with it.
CDC study showing covid infections may be triggering Type 1 diabetes in children under 18.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7102e2.htm?s_cid=mm7102e2_w
The working theories include virus destroying pancreatic cells, misfiring fat cells.
But, but, children don't get that sick from covid!
No masks at schools!
No covid vaccine mandates at schools!
Get back to normal!
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7102e2.htm?s_cid=mm7102e2_w
The working theories include virus destroying pancreatic cells, misfiring fat cells.
But, but, children don't get that sick from covid!
No masks at schools!
No covid vaccine mandates at schools!
Get back to normal!
digitalwanderer
Legend
I can't believe that even democratic states are pushing to lift mask mandates in my country now. I remember we did the same thing last year just before the fourth of July holiday when cases were even lower and that's what led to the massive spike my country has been trying to get down. Now that it's about halfway down they want to encourage another spike?
I do NOT understand. This isn't following the science, it's wishful and idiotic thinking.
I do NOT understand. This isn't following the science, it's wishful and idiotic thinking.
WhiningKhan
Regular
I would like to point out the incidence rates.
In the IQVIA database, diabetes incidence was 316 per 100,000 person-years in the COVID-19 group, 118 per 100,000 person-years in the pandemic period non–COVID-19 group, 126 per 100,000 person-years in the prepandemic ARI group, and 125 per 100,000 person-years in the prepandemic non-ARI group (Table 2). Diabetes risk was 166% higher in the COVID-19 group than in the non-COVID-19 group (HR = 2.66, 95% CI = 1.98–3.56) and 116% higher than in the prepandemic ARI group (HR = 2.16, 95% CI = 1.64–2.86) (Figure). Diabetes incidence did not significantly differ between the prepandemic ARI and non-ARI groups (HR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.84–1.15). In the HealthVerity database, diabetes incidence was 31% higher among patients aged <18 years with COVID-19 (399 per 100,000 person-years) than among those without COVID-19 (304 per 100,000 person-years; HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.20–1.44).
What do you propose as an effective policy across what time-frame?
The burnout in the UK thankfully continues:
Note testing is dropping significantly, skewing the gradient downwards, but these case rates are dropping faster. Considering virtually no measures and Omicron's contagiousness, this reflects viable new hosts reducing due to everyone getting infected. Strangely though the case numbers aren't anything even remotely close to 'everyone' or even a sizeable fraction of the populace. Anecdotally, somewhere like 80% of people I know have had C19, yet the case rates aren't the tens of millions you'd expect with that proportion of infections. There must be an awful lot of infections not being counted, either because they are asymptomatic or people just aren't testing.
Myself, I'm surprised I still haven't tested positive once. In particular last week I was at a house where the kids had had a sickness bug. The mum was feeling ill but testing negative all week so expecting she had picked up their bug. I was there for the better part of an hour when the mum ran another tested which was positive with the thickest, blackest positive line you ever saw, ergo lots of antigens. That meant the house was awash with them and there was no way I didn't inhale plenty enough to start an infection, yet nothing in the following week - no symptoms and no positive tests.
Note testing is dropping significantly, skewing the gradient downwards, but these case rates are dropping faster. Considering virtually no measures and Omicron's contagiousness, this reflects viable new hosts reducing due to everyone getting infected. Strangely though the case numbers aren't anything even remotely close to 'everyone' or even a sizeable fraction of the populace. Anecdotally, somewhere like 80% of people I know have had C19, yet the case rates aren't the tens of millions you'd expect with that proportion of infections. There must be an awful lot of infections not being counted, either because they are asymptomatic or people just aren't testing.
Myself, I'm surprised I still haven't tested positive once. In particular last week I was at a house where the kids had had a sickness bug. The mum was feeling ill but testing negative all week so expecting she had picked up their bug. I was there for the better part of an hour when the mum ran another tested which was positive with the thickest, blackest positive line you ever saw, ergo lots of antigens. That meant the house was awash with them and there was no way I didn't inhale plenty enough to start an infection, yet nothing in the following week - no symptoms and no positive tests.
doesn’t matter what I think.
Politicians all over the world are bailing because maintaining restrictions going into the third year won’t be popular.
if they validate long term problems from even mild infections, then the things to do would be vaccine mandates, NPIs and more funding for new vaccines and antivirals.
immunity or immune enhancements by even mild infections would be suspect, a risk that millions will not die or come down with long term debilitating conditions like heart disease or diabetes.
WhiningKhan
Regular
There are and always have been long term problems from common respiratory virus infections. Pediatric type 1 diabetes which you mentioned has long since been traced to enterovirus, and vaccine trials against that have been going on for a while. Various other autoimmune related conditions have been associated to be triggered by common respiratory virus infections. The slight silver lining in this pandemic is that it has given an opportunity to quickly progress in research for these issues.
That's a bit of a cop out. It's very easy to identify and point out something that isn't perfect, and to complain that it should be fixed, but some effort should be given over to pondering the possibilities there to try to come sort of reality perspective and determine whether there's value in pointing out the problem - if there is, there should be a push for a fix, and if there isn't, the problem shouldn't be thrown around especially coupled with casuals slurs.
eg. I just saw a news report about private pictures being shared on Telegram and Telegram the company not getting involved to stop it. On the subject of communications, we have times where the government or whoever is snooping and some people rightly state, "We need privacy." Then you have private solutions appear like Telegram which enables people to operate under the radar and supports criminal activity, and you get other people rightly stating, "We need controls." Neither side actually proposes a solution, of which there isn't one, and they just conflict. If there is a solution, it should be found. If there isn't, the conflict should just be ditched as pointless and unproductive.
If there's something to be done about the increase in childhood diabetes, it should be spelled out rather than just a flippant remark, "think of the children" as if it's an obvious problem people are turning a blind eye to. All your doing is adding misdirected emotion to the debate.
You present a simplified notion of 'vaccinations'. Why not actually talk that through? How would the vaccinations help? What would the roll-out be? Would you close down society long enough for these vaccinations to become active? If not, you're willing to accept a partial response? At which point, how much real benefit is there going to be? What will the costs be? Could better gains be spent elsewhere - I'd repeat my stance that vaccinations should be going to adults in other countries as the most beneficial contributor to humanity.
But simply stating, "here's a negative," doesn't contribute anything useful IMO. Especially when not even quantified and coupled with smart-arse ridicule of the counter-position.
Or it's just untenable or not proportionally in keeping with the benefits. If you don't spell out the costs and gains and just highlight a thing might go wrong, you aren't making an intelligent argument and are just leaning on rhetoric to try to influence people to your way of thinking. Empty rhetoric is the domain of politicians and 'influencers' and has no value among smart people.
There are long term implications which still aren't known.
In the past year there's all this talk about endemicity and how viruses gets less virulent. Omicron is milder but in many places, it's killing as many or more as previous waves.
Politicians and people are indulging in wishful thinking. How often has the end of the pandemic been declared in the past two years?
Denmark famously dropped most restrictions 2-3 weeks ago. Since then:
https://news.yahoo.com/in-warning-t...denmark-lifts-all-restrictions-183342093.html
In the past year there's all this talk about endemicity and how viruses gets less virulent. Omicron is milder but in many places, it's killing as many or more as previous waves.
Politicians and people are indulging in wishful thinking. How often has the end of the pandemic been declared in the past two years?
Denmark famously dropped most restrictions 2-3 weeks ago. Since then:
https://news.yahoo.com/in-warning-t...denmark-lifts-all-restrictions-183342093.html
You prolly had it first. My GF got it 4-5 days after I did
They are also unknowable until they happen. We have a range of choices between the extremes of isolating completely until the science is understood 100% (or the disease is eradicated), and carrying on as normal and letting the disease do its thing. Selection process for which path to follow at any given time will be imperfect - we can only make obviously smart moves when they are obvious and avoid obviously dumb moves when they are clearly dumb. In the face of an uncertain choice, we shouldn't be ridiculing/dismissing the alternatives - only debating sensibly with reliance on factual data and without being swayed by emotion, rhetoric, popular opinion, etc.
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