Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by RDGoodla, Feb 4, 2020.

  1. BRiT

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    Positive cases to tests is around 6.25% and along with increase in CDC Expanded Cases numbers indicates the testing is too limited by still requiring a doctor's recommendation to get tested. There should be no CDC Expanded Cases if you're able to test.

    Honestly, I'm surprised there are any new cases and tests given the likely mentality that everyone is putting things off because of the holiday weekend -- better to be at home possibly sick than to spend your weekend in the hospital.

    Ohio did 8K tests for today's numbers which is under 40% of the over 22K a day target, with previous days at 3.3K, 3.6K, 5.5K, 4.9K, 6.5K, 5.2K, 4.3K, 4.9K, 5.5K, 8.1K, 7.0K, 8.2K, 12.2K, 8.1K, 5.4K, 7.1K, 8K, 7.4K, 12.7K, 10.3K, 7.8K, 7.2K, 7.5K, 10K, 9.4K, 8.6K, 8.6K.

    Ohio's numbers today, Confirmed: 31,911 (up from 31,408 ), Hospitalized: 5,476 (up from 5,437 ), and Deaths: 1,969 (up from 1,956 ).
    CDC Expanded Cases and Deaths: 2134, 200
    Confirmed Cuyahoga County: 3927 (up from 3851 ) ~ 1.97% increase.

    Percentage increase: 1.60%, 0.71%, 0.66%
    Raw increase: 503, 39, 13

    Ohio has total tests of 322,419 (up from 314,374 ) and tests per 1M population of 27,583 (up from ~ 26,895 ) taken from https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [case numbers updated later]

    They're now using roughly 11.689 million for population of Ohio.
     
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  2. A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y

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    2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
    https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

    May 24, 2020 - 8,827 confirmed cases - 211 deaths

    8,827 confirmed cases up 178 over yesterday and one new death
    those 178 new cases represent a 2.1% increase over the last day

    Increases (by percent) over the last 59 days:
    21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%
    -- Month of April 2020 --
    15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%,
    4.0%, 6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%, 2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%
    -- Month of May 2020 --
    5.3%, 4.9%, 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.9%, 5.3%, 5.2%, 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.5%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.6%, 2.9%, 3.0%,
    2.8%, 3.0%, 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.5%, 2.0% and now 2.1%

    Increases (by count) over the last 59 days:
    +64, +72, +49, +61, +82
    -- Month of April 2020 --
    +100, +100, +90, +94, +97. +43, +106, +63, +108, +105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109,
    +80, +124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80, +71, +75, +105, +91, +135, +112, +179
    -- Month of May 2020 --
    +187, +181, +234, +237, +253, +246, +251, +249, +250, +251, +253, +236, +243, +235, +199, +214,
    +205, +224, +225, +186, +183, +204, +172 and now +178

     
  3. Shifty Geezer

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    Do they not provide graphs at these official government dashboards? Neither you nor BRiT are posting anything but hard-to-read numbers. In the UK we get these:

    upload_2020-5-25_10-21-6.png
     
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  4. BRiT

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    Ohio's graphs are off, is the simplest explaination.

    They use a different date for charting. Instead of giving the ability to chart by result Created Date or even Specimen Date , they chart by what seems to be User Specified Illness Onset Date. So the past week's worth of numbers are always being adjusted by inaccurate user accounts.

    "When did you start feeling sick?"
    "I dunno, a couple days ago. Maybe Thursday."​

    So if you go here and look at the charts in the rightmost of the center area, you will see the numbers do not match anything they report on a day to day basis. Like right now they have only 1 new case reported for yesterday! https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards

    OhioCharts.png
     
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  5. Shifty Geezer

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  6. BRiT

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    That was one of the reasons why I was driven to collect the numbers, because the state's constant revision of them made it impossible to know if they're not just cooking the books. Even the chart for Total Cases at WorldOMeter for Ohio is slightly off, since they're getting numbers from individual county websites and then some of the larger cities numbers are not reported in the county numbers so they have to combine like over 90+ data sources.

    The only number chart that aligns is the daily new cases chart. This show fairly well how abysmal we're doing in containing the virus. It's still spreading close to a R=1 rate. It could be worse, but it should be so much better.

    From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/ohio/
    upload_2020-5-25_9-39-52.png
     
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  7. A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y

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    Texas has gone out of their way to hide any usefull information such as you have shown. Any charts like the one you have shown do not exist. The reason they have done so is pretty obvious since they are forcing the opening of the state.

    As for Dallas County they have some charts but they are not very usefull. They have these charts available:

    1. Trend for Suspected COVID-19 ER Visits
    2. Trend for Total Available ICU Beds
    3. Trend for Suspected COVID-19 General Hospital Admits Last 24 Hrs
    4. Trend for Suspected COVID-19 ICU Admits Last 24 Hrs
    5. Trend for Current Lab Confirmed COVID-19 General Hospitalizations
    6. Trend for Current Lab Confirmed COVID-19 ICU Hospitalizations

    They can be viewed here: https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus/monitoring-data.php

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Shifty Geezer

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    There's another street-party going on outside. No idea why. Last one was VE Day. Perhaps that's why the decline in case hasn't continued with something of a flattening out the past week?
     
  9. BRiT

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    Going to try something new here in my reporting on Ohio COVID19 numbers to make it more comprehensible...

    Testing down, cases up.

    Here is the trends which is using reported date and not arbitrary and incorrectly identified user reported onset date. This graphic is resized by ~ 75% and taken from the State's Current Trends page: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends

    upload_2020-5-25_15-47-4.png

    Here is the raw data for the last 7 days:

    upload_2020-5-25_15-50-58.png

    Code:
    Date; Total Tests; New Tests; Tests per 1M Population; Total Cases; Cuyahoga County Cases; Hospitalizations; Total Deaths; New Cases; New Hospitalizations; New Deaths
    2020-05-19; 277,602; 7,561; 23,749; 28,952; 3,463; 5,117; 1,720; 498; 119; 63
    2020-05-20; 287,609; 10,007; 24,605; 29,436; 3,512; 5,198; 1,781; 484; 81; 61
    2020-05-21; 297,085; 9,476; 25,416; 30,167; 3,667; 5,295; 1,836; 731; 97; 55
    2020-05-22; 305,764; 8,679; 26,158; 30,794; 3,762; 5,379; 1,872; 627; 84; 36
    2020-05-23; 314,374; 8,610; 26,895; 31,408; 3,851; 5,437; 1,956; 614; 58; 84
    2020-05-24; 322,419; 8,045; 27,583; 31,911; 3,927; 5,476; 1,969; 503; 39; 13
    2020-05-25; 330,334; 7,915; 28,260; 32,477; 3,963; 5,511; 1,987; 566; 35; 18
    
     
  10. A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y

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    2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
    https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

    May 25, 2020 - 8,998 confirmed cases - 211 deaths

    8,998 confirmed cases up 171 no new deaths
    those 171 new cases represent a 1.9% increase over the last day

    Increases (by percent) over the last 60 days:
    21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%
    -- Month of April 2020 --
    15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%,
    4.0%, 6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%, 2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%
    -- Month of May 2020 --
    5.3%, 4.9%, 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.9%, 5.3%, 5.2%, 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.5%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.6%, 2.9%, 3.0%,
    2.8%, 3.0%, 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.5%, 2.0%, 2.1% and now 1.9%

    Increases (by count) over the last 60 days:
    +64, +72, +49, +61, +82
    -- Month of April 2020 --
    +100, +100, +90, +94, +97. +43, +106, +63, +108, +105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109,
    +80, +124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80, +71, +75, +105, +91, +135, +112, +179
    -- Month of May 2020 --
    +187, +181, +234, +237, +253, +246, +251, +249, +250, +251, +253, +236, +243, +235, +199, +214,
    +205, +224, +225, +186, +183, +204, +172, +178 and now +171

     
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  11. A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y

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    State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown

    [​IMG]

    https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
    https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101

    Data as of 5/25/2020 @ 3:30 PM:

    Total Tests: 906,074 (Up +35,139 over two days) : 12,430 below the 30,000 Daily Tests that the Governor of Texas Abbott promised.
    Total Viral Tests: 805,654
    Total Antibody Tests: 80,700 - Positive Antibody Tests: 3,163
    Positivity Rate (Previous 5 Days): 4.7%, 5.43%, 5.51%, 5.39% and now 4.87%

    Cases Reported: 55,971 (Up +1,462 over two days)

    Fatalities: 1,527 (Up +21)

    Texas tests per 1M population are 31,248 (Up +1,211) which places Texas as the 8th worst State. Up one place from yesterday.

    Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

    and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column to sort from worst to first

    They are using roughly 27.996 million as the population of Texas.
     
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  12. BRiT

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    Ohio continues to falter with testing while cases continue to increase despite having a Holiday weekend where people are typically deterred from spending time at hospitals or being tested.

    Here is the trends which is using reported date and not arbitrary and incorrectly identified user reported onset date. This graphic is resized by ~ 75% and taken from the State's Current Trends page: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends

    upload_2020-5-26_16-52-12.png

    Here is the raw data for the last 8 days:

    upload_2020-5-26_16-56-40.png

    Code:
    Date; Total Tests; New Tests; Tests per 1M Population; Total Cases; Cuyahoga County Cases; Hospitalizations; Total Deaths; New Cases; New Hospitalizations; New Deaths
    2020-05-19; 277,602; 7,561; 23,749; 28,952; 3,463; 5,117; 1,720; 498; 119; 63
    2020-05-20; 287,609; 10,007; 24,605; 29,436; 3,512; 5,198; 1,781; 484; 81; 61
    2020-05-21; 297,085; 9,476; 25,416; 30,167; 3,667; 5,295; 1,836; 731; 97; 55
    2020-05-22; 305,764; 8,679; 26,158; 30,794; 3,762; 5,379; 1,872; 627; 84; 36
    2020-05-23; 314,374; 8,610; 26,895; 31,408; 3,851; 5,437; 1,956; 614; 58; 84
    2020-05-24; 322,419; 8,045; 27,583; 31,911; 3,927; 5,476; 1,969; 503; 39; 13
    2020-05-25; 330,334; 7,915; 28,260; 32,477; 3,963; 5,511; 1,987; 566; 35; 18
    2020-05-26; 337,221; 6,887; 28,849; 33,006; 4,060; 5,579; 2,002; 529; 68; 15
    
     
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  13. A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y

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    2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
    https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

    May 26, 2020 - 9,188 confirmed cases - 213 deaths

    9,188 confirmed cases up 190 and two new deaths
    those 190 new cases represent a 2.1% increase over the last day

    Increases (by percent) over the last 61 days:
    21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%
    -- Month of April 2020 --
    15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%,
    4.0%, 6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%, 2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%
    -- Month of May 2020 --
    5.3%, 4.9%, 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.9%, 5.3%, 5.2%, 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.5%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.6%, 2.9%, 3.0%,
    2.8%, 3.0%, 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.5%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 1.9% and now 2.1%

    Increases (by count) over the last 61 days:
    +64, +72, +49, +61, +82
    -- Month of April 2020 --
    +100, +100, +90, +94, +97. +43, +106, +63, +108, +105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109,
    +80, +124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80, +71, +75, +105, +91, +135, +112, +179
    -- Month of May 2020 --
    +187, +181, +234, +237, +253, +246, +251, +249, +250, +251, +253, +236, +243, +235, +199, +214,
    +205, +224, +225, +186, +183, +204, +172, +178, +171 and now +190

     
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  14. A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y

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    State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown

    [​IMG]

    https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
    https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101

    Data as of 5/26/2020 @ 4:00 PM:

    Total Tests: 943,239 (Up +37,165) : 7,165 above the 30,000 Daily Tests that the Governor of Texas Abbott promised.
    Total Viral Tests: 821,233 (Up +15,579) Of Today's Tests only 41.9% were Viral Tests. Not Good.
    Total Antibody Tests: 84,841 - Positive Antibody Tests: 3,294
    Positivity Rate (Previous 6 Days): 4.7%, 5.43%, 5.51%, 5.39%, 4.87 and now 5.15%

    Cases Reported: 56,560 (Up +589)

    Fatalities: 1,536 (Up +9)

    Texas tests per 1M population are 32,570 (Up +1,322) which places Texas as the 9th worst State. Up one place from yesterday.

    Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

    and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column to sort from worst to first

    They are using roughly 27.996 million as the population of Texas.
     
    #2154 A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y, May 27, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2020
  15. A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y

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    Antibody tests for Covid-19 wrong half the time, CDC says

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/antibody-tests-for-covid-19-wrong-half-the-time-cdc-says/ar-BB14DD2E

    Antibody tests used to determine if people have been infected in the past with Covid-19 might be wrong up to half the time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in new guidance posted on its website.

    Antibody tests, often called serologic tests, look for evidence of an immune response to infection. "Antibodies in some persons can be detected within the first week of illness onset," the CDC says.

    They are not accurate enough to use to make important policy decisions, the CDC said.

    "Serologic test results should not be used to make decisions about grouping persons residing in or being admitted to congregate settings, such as schools, dormitories, or correctional facilities," the CDC says.

    "Serologic test results should not be used to make decisions about returning persons to the workplace."

    Health officials or health care providers who are using antibody tests need to use the most accurate test they can find and might need to test people twice, the CDC said in the new guidance.

    A false positive will lead someone to believe they have been infected when in fact they have not been. There's little evidence now about whether having been infected gives people immunity to later infection, but doctors worry that people will behave as if they are immune if they get a positive antibody test.

    "It cannot be assumed that individuals with truly positive antibody test results are protected from future infection," the CDC says in the updated guidelines. "Serologic testing should not be used to determine immune status in individuals until the presence, durability, and duration of immunity is established."
     
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  16. BRiT

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  17. Tkumpathenurpahl

    Tkumpathenurpahl Oil my grapes.
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    I've only dipped in and out of the media surrounding this whole event, but every time, it's just proven to me what an atrocious circus we've descended into.

    The facts of the above article could be relayed to a government official during a press briefing, and these facts could be relayed quite... factually. The kind of thing you'd do if you were actually trying to be helpful and advance a cause.

    Similarly, a government official could respond to those facts with some degree of honesty. "That's an interesting, effective methodology. We'll look into it. But right now, we're committed to an alternative. It will be precisely one week from now before we review the matter, and assess whether China's methodology would be one to adopt." Also the kind of thing you'd do if you were trying to be helpful and advance a cause.

    But it won't be that. It hasn't been for years. Not with any subject. It'll be some hungry, desperate, twerp journalist looking to stroke their own ego with a "gotcha" moment, because they've mistaken movies for life, mistaken the pursuit of narratively dramatic moments for doing your fucking job. And the response will come from some career politician, who's more interested in combating and discrediting the journalists than they are in also doing their fucking job, and engineering a functional government and society.

    The pandemic has exposed the depths of governmental and journalistic ineptitude. Exposed how it deeply its gotten to the core of both institutions. Exposed how it's not just a charade that takes place around lesser issues, like the age at which one receives a free bus pass. Even when we need them to be effective, they both continue behaving like a bunch of sixth formers, arguing about how to run a world in which they've spent no time.
     
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  18. BRiT

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    France bans hydroxychloroquine as COVID-19 treatment
    France has banned hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, its government announced Wednesday.

    French officials canceled a previous decree that permitted doctors to provide the anti-malaria medicine to certain patients suffering from COVID-19, Reuters reported. The cancellation is set to go into effect immediately.

    France is the first country to ban hydroxychloroquine as a COVID-19 treatment, since the World Health Organization (WHO) announced Monday that it was stopping a trial testing the drug's effectiveness in treating COVID-19 patients because of safety concerns.

    The French ban was announced in the government's official bulletin and confirmed by the health ministry, according to Reuters. WHO's suspension of the trial testing was not mentioned in the statements.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...id-19-treatment/ar-BB14Fo0N?OCID=ansmsnnews11
     
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  19. BRiT

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    Ohio's testing hits 10K which is below half of their target they talked about what seems to be a month ago to remain over 22K tests a day. The number of hospitalizations including ICU admissions has spiked.

    Here is the trends which is using reported date and not arbitrary and incorrectly identified user reported onset date. This graphic is resized by ~ 75% and taken from the State's Current Trends page: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends

    upload_2020-5-27_15-31-26.png

    Here is the raw data for the last 9 days:

    upload_2020-5-27_15-26-55.png

    Code:
    Date; Total Tests; New Tests; Tests per 1M Population; Total Cases; Cuyahoga County Cases; Hospitalizations; Total Deaths; New Cases; New Hospitalizations; New Deaths
    2020-05-19; 277,602; 7,561; 23,749; 28,952; 3,463; 5,117; 1,720; 498; 119; 63
    2020-05-20; 287,609; 10,007; 24,605; 29,436; 3,512; 5,198; 1,781; 484; 81; 61
    2020-05-21; 297,085; 9,476; 25,416; 30,167; 3,667; 5,295; 1,836; 731; 97; 55
    2020-05-22; 305,764; 8,679; 26,158; 30,794; 3,762; 5,379; 1,872; 627; 84; 36
    2020-05-23; 314,374; 8,610; 26,895; 31,408; 3,851; 5,437; 1,956; 614; 58; 84
    2020-05-24; 322,419; 8,045; 27,583; 31,911; 3,927; 5,476; 1,969; 503; 39; 13
    2020-05-25; 330,334; 7,915; 28,260; 32,477; 3,963; 5,511; 1,987; 566; 35; 18
    2020-05-26; 337,221; 6,887; 28,849; 33,006; 4,060; 5,579; 2,002; 529; 68; 15
    2020-05-27; 347,477;10,256; 29,727; 33,439; 4,137; 5,700; 2,044; 433; 121; 42
    
     
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  20. wco81

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