Chevy Volt drivers average 800 miles between fill-ups.

[cjo]

At the moment there aren't any PHEVs for you to buy in the UK, so I don't know what you're talking about. This is about a general strategy going forward for all consumers and manufacturers, not about one man buying one car, or 0.1% of buyers looking at one model. This is how this whole discussion of costs started:

<sarcasm>
You know what, you're right. PHEVs are always the right choice, they are far cheaper than any ICE you could possibly buy ever (including the ones with a stated 4.2L/100Km efficiency, which you can actually buy right now). Despite the fact that they have announced expected pricing, with availability of a PHEV in Europe in the next 6 months (woo for imports) is totally irrelevant, the fact that I couldn't walk to a dealership right now and drive one away means that any calculated figures based on what the manufacturers themselves have stated are completely incorrect.
</sarcasm>

The best thing for a consumer to do is buy a car that suits them. If they are looking to spend as little as possible, a diesel beats a PHEV or EV.

The strategy going forward for manufacturers should be to improve their processes so that the cost of an PHEV or EV comes down enough so that it is cheaper to buy/run than a diesel.

a TDI doesn't give enough performance for most car buyers.

Ok, state the minimum 0-60 time and minimum top speed for most buyers?

 

[Simon F]

You are very annoying to have a conversation with...

Pot meet kettle

I'm tempted to move this to the religion forum

 

[DuckThor Evil]

(Leafs are already faster than TDIs)

Sorry for picking only this one thing from there, but you might want to check something like BMW 335d or Audi A5 3.0 TDI and what sort of performance those have. Plenty of diesel cars have great performance these days. BMW 123d has good performance and mpg.

 

[Mintmaster]

True, I was referring to the golf bluemotions they kept brining up.

 

[Mintmaster]

Pot meet kettle

Okay, coming from a smart guy like yourself, I'm taking that insult personally.

I explicitly ask for their oft-quoted 70MPG gasoline cars, and they give me a bunch of diesel examples. What have I done in this thread that is anywhere near as obtuse as that? What have I done to make this a religious thread? I am basing everything on numbers, stats, and calculations.

 

[JohnH]

Explain. Do you understand how gasoline and diesel are produced?

Err, yes. But given this thread also encompasses more efficient petrol engines (5L/100KM are readily available NOW), it's a moot arguement.

Then show me what people are getting with new cars. Don't cherry pick a couple cars and give me unrealistic fuel consumption figures from a test that has no bearing on reality.

Eh, what on earth are you going on about? You're cherry picking PHEV's with specific ranges (which may or may not exist) to support your argument. I'm just choosing a _real_ car from the middle of the large range of fuel efficient cars that are available NOW. It's irrelevent to the argument at hand what number may or may not be be being sold.

The fact remains that PHEV's do not make sense at their current pricing levels.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

As I like to talk about my 1.2L TSI engine a lot and I'm in luv with it, I have to post this gem of my pron collection here.

edit: that Polo actually has little bit higher fuel consumption than my Golf as it's missing some of the features, which are in the Golf like Start & Stop system and some other stuff. Mine is rated at 5.2L combined and 4.5L highway. Those are quite realistic. I get exactly 4.5 or sometimes 4.6, when I drive to our summer gottage.

edit2 I quess I have to put 1 smiley there hehe

 

[Mintmaster]

Err, yes. But given this thread also encompasses more efficient petrol engines (5L/100KM are readily available NOW), it's a moot argument.

Eh, what on earth are you going on about? You're cherry picking PHEV's with specific ranges (which may or may not exist) to support your argument.

There are no PHEVs in Europe right now. If that's your argument, then I have no case.

What market is served by petrol engines that get 5L/100KM in real life? Even the 1 series mentioned is over 6L/100km with the unrealistic EU test. How many people are buying these 5L/100km cars?

There is no cherry picking in my argument. I'm looking at compacts (Leaf), performance cars (Tesla), midsize sedan (Volt), sports sedan (theoretical M35h with a bigger battery), full size sports sedan (Fisker Karma), etc. ALL have neglible differences in energy costs per mile. PHEV and its differential cost can serve virtually all car markets.

I was being very conservative with my figures, too. Lithium batteries are under $500/kWh (automakers are already seeing bids for $450 per kWh, projections are down, Nissan pays $375 per kWh). I mentioned residual value of a battery, motor, etc after $2000 cycles, but didn't include it in the calcs. If an 8-year-old PHEV still has the ability to save you $5/day for the next 5-10 years before the battery is almost gone, then it will have resale value $5-10k more than an 8-year-old ICE-only car, all else being equal.

Now you're questioning "what I'm going on about"? You started this whole conversation by being wary of the rush to EVs. Clearly you are not talking about the measly couple thousand Leafs/Volts sold per month, so we've been discussing the applicability of PHEV to the whole auto market. How could I be any more clear?

The fact remains that PHEV's do not make sense at their current pricing levels.

In the US? I never claimed they did. In the EU? There are no PHEVs.

However, add a bigger battery to any hybrid, sell it in Europe, and it makes a lot of sense. I've proven it again and again.

 

[Mintmaster]

the fact that I couldn't walk to a dealership right now and drive one away means that any calculated figures based on what the manufacturers themselves have stated are completely incorrect.

Please share these figures that I am doing so much injustice to.

JohnH has shared a figure of what he thinks a PHEV has to make up, and that's $9k. I've looked at various hybrids (not plugin), so PHEV looks like $4-6k+battery to me. I used €10k for my high perf example.

Ok, state the minimum 0-60 time and minimum top speed for most buyers?

I don't know. They certainly aren't asking for 1.2L engines in the vast majority of cars because they want more performance, and that's all that matters.

 

[Mintmaster]

Let me clear up all this conflict once and for all. cjo and JohnH, please answer the following questions, and I will base all my arguments on the numbers you give me:

1) What do you want me to use as the average price for gas in Europe for the next 10 years?

2) What figure do you want me to use for typical new car MPG in Europe?

3) Do you have examples of future EU PHEV pricing versus comparably equipped ICE-only cars, or a figure that you want me to use?

Alternatively:
3a) What figure are you happy with for battery cost and life? Given the links I gave above, is $500/kWh 2000 cycles at full capacity, and another 3000 cycles at 66% avg capacity conservative enough for you?
3b) What figure are you happy with for the rest of a PHEV's cost (motor, clutches, electronics, etc.)? Do you have pricing for regular hybrids that I can refer to?

 

[cjo]

Please share these figures that I am doing so much injustice to.

JohnH has shared a figure of what he thinks a PHEV has to make up, and that's $9k. I've looked at various hybrids (not plugin), so PHEV looks like $4-6k+battery to me. I used €10k for my high perf example.
I don't know. They certainly aren't asking for 1.2L engines in the vast majority of cars because they want more performance, and that's all that matters.

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1551355&postcount=162 <- Figures you are doing so much injustice to.

Adding a bigger battery doesn't fix this problem, you need to add a *cheaper* battery of at least the same capacity, as well as reducing the price premium of a PHEV.

And I know you don't like Diesel, and it may not be a viable solution for 100% of the market (PHEVs right now aren't a viable solution for a lot of the market now anyway) but right now you can get a 2.0L Diesel, which isn't slow by any stretch of the imagination, which is more economical than a PHEV.

 

[cjo]

Let me clear up all this conflict once and for all. cjo and JohnH, please answer the following questions, and I will base all my arguments on the numbers you give me:

1) What do you expect the average price for gas will be for Europeans in the next 10 years?

2) What figure do you want me to use for typical new car MPG in Europe?

3) Do you have examples of future EU PHEV pricing versus comparably equipped ICE-only cars, or a figure that you want me to use?

Alternatively:
3a) What figure are you happy with for battery cost and life? Given the links I gave above, is $500/kWh 2000 cycles at full capacity, and another 3000 cycles at 66% avg capacity conservative enough for you?
3b) What figure are you happy with for the rest of a PHEV's cost (motor, clutches, electronics, etc.)? Do you have pricing for regular hybrids that I can refer to?

Neither me or JohnH can predict the cost of things in 10 years time (well, JohnH might claim he can ). I don't think either of us are saying that PHEV or EV cars will always be less economical than high-efficiency ICE. However, the *current generation* of (PH)EV cars, using figures quoted by the manufacturers are borderline at best. The battery technology is coming along, and will (probably) get there eventually, and the next generation of cars may break through the barrier required to put them ahead of ICE - and might have the energy density required to make them more suitable for longer trips.

I'm not really willing to put more time going over the same numbers over and over again, so I'm going to leave this here now.

 

[Mintmaster]

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1551355&postcount=162 <- Figures you are doing so much injustice to.

The problem with the Leaf is that it's not a PHEV, so it has a bigger battery. You are only using 35% of its range per day.

Still, you ignored resale value. The battery will still have 70-80% of its capacity after 10 years, so the Leaf will continue to save money later. After 7 years, it can easily save, say, £5k in gas costs for its next owner, so the car could be worth £4k more than the BlueMotion.

As for the Volt, I have no idea why it's £35,000 there. That's insane.

We'll soon have more PHEVs, though. It's basically a hybrid with a bigger battery and a charger. What kind of price premiums are there for hybrids in EU?

 

[WhiningKhan]

Yes they do. The flat rate you get charged is your distributor making pricing simple for you and for them (you need a better power meter to do anything else). The companies producing the power get paid more during the day and less at night.

In Finland, electricity price used to be about 50% at night of the daytime price, but that was a long time ago - nowadays there is practically no real difference, the night-time rate has climbed to near parity with all providers. Despite the 'smart' power meters that are now used everywhere, the utility companies are not going to lower the rates anymore.

At the moment, I'm paying ~0.08€/kWh in total. It is claimed that electricity is cheap here, compared to rest of Europe. I'm not sure I fully believe that.

 

[Sxotty]

Pot meet kettle

I'm tempted to move this to the religion forum

I already have an energy systems thread there full of all sorts of good stuff. People can't seem to be rational about it so I put it there

 

[Frank]

Something that is overlooked in this thread is, that people happily pay thousands more for a new car, while choking on the price they have to pay each week at the gas station.

The first one is seen as a long-term investment and either paid for with savings, or borrowed. Looks and options are most important here.

The second one determines the price of actually using the car. It's "in your face" on a regular basis. It's what makes people buy a new, "economic" car that might be more expensive over it's lifetime, but makes them smile, every time they see or think about what little it costs them to fill it up.

 

[Simon F]

Arghh - I vowed to myself that I'd stay out of this thread as I don't have the time.

Okay, coming from a smart guy like yourself, I'm taking that insult personally.

I beg your pardon. Are you saying it's ok for you to say "You are very annoying to have a conversation with..." because, presumably, that person doesn't agree with you when you appear to be doing exactly the same thing?

I explicitly ask for their oft-quoted 70MPG gasoline cars, and they give me a bunch of diesel examples..

I haven't followed that debate that closely, but I thought the argument was the cost/benefits of hybrid VS standard ICE vehicles that can be purchased today. I don't recall seeing an agreement that there had to be a limitation that excluded diesels?

 

[DuckThor Evil]

What market is served by petrol engines that get 5L/100KM in real life? Even the 1 series mentioned is over 6L/100km with the unrealistic EU test. How many people are buying these 5L/100km cars?

Well my Golf get's pretty close. My average consumption during summer is 5.6L, but that includes a lot of city driving and during traffic. It's easy to get it under 5L outside of the City. The EU test is fairly accurate with my car if driven economically, which I do. Also I'm not sure which sells more the 1.2 TSI or the 1.4 TSI, but it's one of those and without even looking at any figures I can state that the Golf is pretty high on the list of most cars sold in Europe.

I don't know. They certainly aren't asking for 1.2L engines in the vast majority of cars because they want more performance, and that's all that matters.

I know the engine in my car is too small for bigger cars, but not by too much. The peak power figure is not that important, but the whole powerband. The 1.2L TSI replaced the old 1.6L NA petrol engine, which had the same 77KW, but the TSI has at 1200rpm more torque than the max torque of that 1.6L engine, almost a second quicker to 62mph and 2 liters smaller fuel consumption in 100km.

When I bought the car, everyone was saying only 1.2? with a goofy face, but everyone of them were impressed by the engine after driving it, especially the usability. The peak power is not impressive and you dont get a miracle when you floor it, but in 95% of the situations it has an abundance of power.

Intelligent turbocharging whether petrol or diesel still has room to improve and it already is at a good level. There is even an S-class Mercedes Benz that has a 2.2L 4-cylinder diesel engine. 0-62mph 8 seconds and top speed of 240kmh/149mph with impressive fuel consumption figures.

edit:
Oh yeah I forgot. I actually think that wanting and getting a car that is high in the lineup with regards to engine power is childish. Note I don't think childish is bad, I have lot's of toys myself and if you can afford them, then no problem, but if you have to loan money to get a car of which power you can use only rarely, then that is questionable behaviour. Even the entry level engine or the next up, usually offers more than enough of power, and the way the price increases alongside power is downright ridiculous.

 

[Simon F]

edit:
Oh yeah I forgot. I actually think that wanting and getting a car that is high in the lineup with regards to engine power is childish. Note I don't think childish is bad, I have lot's of toys myself and if you can afford them, then no problem, but if you have to loan money to get a car of which power you can use only rarely, then that is questionable behaviour. Even the entry level engine or the next up, usually offers more than enough of power, and the way the price increases alongside power is downright ridiculous.

There was an advert on Australian TV for a V8 car that was soon spoofed with a tag line that went something along lines of "The new V8... for men who only have an inline 4".

 

[Sxotty]

Arghh - I vowed to myself that I'd stay out of this thread as I don't have the time.

I beg your pardon. Are you saying it's ok for you to say "You are very annoying to have a conversation with..." because, presumably, that person doesn't agree with you when you appear to be doing exactly the same thing?


I haven't followed that debate that closely, but I thought the argument was the cost/benefits of hybrid VS standard ICE vehicles that can be purchased today. I don't recall seeing an agreement that there had to be a limitation that excluded diesels?

His point which is totally valid is we can't just all go to diesels. You make gasoline when you make diesel. So if you try to push to diesel the price of gasoline will fall making diesels less attractive. Also diesels are more expensive as well, though all ICEs are getting more complex and expensive trying to drain the last drop of efficiency. The problem is that they are already there trying to get the last bit. There isn't much more to wring out no matter what they do.

The real efficiency gains are going to come in terms of making vehicles lighter. Unsurprisingly this costs money, also those same improvements can be passed onto PHEVs.