Blu-ray and HD-DVD talks restart again

[deathstar121]

Hey jvd here's a little history on how DVD players looked over the years. As you can see its rough trying to start a new media for people to watch movies on. The PS3 sells will probably equal if not surpass these numbers alone based on history. Think about it.

Of course PS3 will out do those numbers, the system comes with a blu ray drive, but a blu ray stand alone player on the market will not fair well, consumer won't by it right away, and if there's 2 choices it will make things worse for the dvd market itself.

 

[jvd]

mckmass your backing up what i've said

In 2000 when the ps2 launched (it was 2000 right ? There were 46 million dvd-rom drives world wide and 13 million players in the usa and um another 5 million world wide ? . How many ps2s do u think shiped in its first year world wide ? 5 ? 10 ? million

As i said dvd was already established with over 10 thousand videos out for it by the time the ps2 launched. The ps2 really didn't do much for the dvd uptake at all .

 

[mckmas8808]

In a way you are right. Dvds were already in the market for a while when the PS2 hit the scene. But my point was look at the first year or two for the DVD format. Obviously HD-DVD won't be able to compete at the same rate that DVD did years ago. It will be much easier for the Blu-ray because PS3 sells will compete with the rate of speed that the DVD players sold at in 1997 and 98.

Can you see what I'm getting at. If you're going to talk about price of the media then obviously you should be talking about the price of the PS3 verus a standalone HD-DVD player. Hmmm should someone get a $300-$350 PS3 or a $1000 HD-DVD player?

 

[JasonLD]

mckmass your backing up what i've said

In 2000 when the ps2 launched (it was 2000 right ? There were 46 million dvd-rom drives world wide and 13 million players in the usa and um another 5 million world wide ? . How many ps2s do u think shiped in its first year world wide ? 5 ? 10 ? million

As i said dvd was already established with over 10 thousand videos out for it by the time the ps2 launched. The ps2 really didn't do much for the dvd uptake at all .

Lol, PS2 was one of the biggest reason that DVD really took off. In Japan, DVD started to become mainstream thanks to PS2 where VCD was surprisingly still popular. PS2 was by far cheapest DVD player. In US, I believe PS2 at least contributed to rising popularity of DVD..PS2 was most popular "DVD player" among college kids and biggest reason they started buying DVD movies.

 

[jvd]

In a way you are right. Dvds were already in the market for a while when the PS2 hit the scene. But my point was look at the first year or two for the DVD format. Obviously HD-DVD won't be able to compete at the same rate that DVD did years ago. It will be much easier for the Blu-ray because PS3 sells will compete with the rate of speed that the DVD players sold at in 1997 and 98.

Hd-dvd may not sell as well. It depends on when it comes out , what software is avalible and what the prices are . Your gambling on an uknown quanity that is the ps3. We do not know how many sony can ship in its first year or how many will sell nor do we know its price range .

I think what you will see are numbers very similar to each other with bluray possibly leading. But then again as you can see by your numbers the pc market is whats important . That is where the next format will be decided . 3 years after dvds release there were 46 million dvd-roms in pcs . What do you think they were used for ? Even in 2005 there are few programs and games that ship on dvd . The reason for those sales were for movies and the fact that the pc driers were cheaper and offered better image quality .

Can you see what I'm getting at. If you're going to talk about price of the media then obviously you should be talking about the price of the PS3 verus a standalone HD-DVD player. Hmmm should someone get a $300-$350 PS3 or a $1000 HD-DVD player?

oh oh can i throw out numbers too ? would someone get a 10$ hd-dvd player or a 5000$ ps3 ?

We don't know how much a ps3 will cost and we don't know how much a hd-dvd drive will cost . You seem certian that the ps3 will be very cheap to make . However you forget ath t there is alot more hardware in that ps3. While hd-dvd who is competing against the optical drive in the ps3 will have the cheaper hardware to produce . So its up to toshiba to put out a price and it may very well be lower than the ps3 . It may also be higher than the ps3 but have more movies .

There are two many factors to just assume like your doing .

Lol, PS2 was one of the biggest reason that DVD really took off.

according to mckmas dvd capable players were already in the 60-70 million unit range by the time the ps2 launched. Its taken the ps2 6 years to sell 90m units . Acording to his numbers a year after the ps2 launched dvd-rom drives hit 90m world wide. I can't honestly see how you believe ps2 which was most likely limping to 10.5 million to 17 million or so was one of the biggest reasons why dvd really took off . It seems to me that dvd was already out in space before the ps2 even launched .

..PS2 was most popular "DVD player" among college kids and biggest reason they started buying DVD movies.

Can u back this up ? I was actualy in college when this happened and there were more dvd players than ps2s at my campus . Actually only 3 people had ps2s in our dorm building . Dreamcast however was in every other room because you could get it for 100$ and had good drinking games and dvd player were in every 4th room when you counted pcs . We would sit around my 19inch monitor and watch movies on my pc .

 

[mckmas8808]

But then again as you can see by your numbers the pc market is whats important . That is where the next format will be decided . 3 years after dvds release there were 46 million dvd-roms in pcs . What do you think they were used for ?

Ok again great point jvd. Now remember Sony, Apple, Dell, and HP will include Blu-ray players in their computers next year. Dell and HP are the biggest PC producers in the world and along with Apple putting it in their Macs and laptops Blu-ray to me seems like a shoe-in.

I mean why not? What does HD-DVD have to challenge this?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Are Dell and HP including BluRay in ALL their PCs? I doubt it. It'll be included as a mass storage for workstations in original recordable format.

But really, don't you two get tired of saying the same things over and over again? Even PC-Engine hasn't said much on HD-DVD vs. BluRay of late, and he's as tenacious as anyone! Why do each of you seek to have the last word on the matter when you know it's not gonna make the blindest bit of difference to how the other thinks? The argument's have been thrashed to death. Just wait to see what happens now and then in a few years time one or other might be able to come back and say (in a private mail) 'Ha! I told you so.'

 

[NavNucST3]

jvd,

I think you miss understood my comments about HD-DVD vs. BD-ROM, I said that while I believe BD to be superior that the cost savings of HD-DVD should bode well for it. I think we were saying the same thing...

What I would hope would happen should there actually be a standard disc AND it happens to get included in the PS3 that MS should offer an upgrade path for us early adopters (I have 2 360s on pre-). Although I do think people are forgetting that MSFT wants you to have a Media Center PC, so maybe they would rather us buy our own HD (whichever version)- ROM and stream it from the PC. One more reason I would prefer to have a GigE port. Other than that COME ON NOVEMBER!!!

 

[mckmas8808]

You're right Shifty I do kinda get tired of saying the same thing over and over. It's just that sometimes I can't help it, because I honestly feel like jvd doesn't analyze the whole situation. It's not a gurantee but one does have an advantage of the other. And its not just a technical advantage anymore like the Betamax.

 

[-tkf-]

Here is something i posted the last time jvd dismissed the PS2 as a DVD player and that the PS3 could have "anything" to do with Blu-Ray being a stronger contender for the next gen format:

When DVD was 3 years old it had sold 7 million stand alone players.

When the PS2 was 2 years old it had sold 10 million.

What i tried to show with those numbers is that the PS3 could be an even bigger factor, since the HD format will be 3 years old and the PS3 should be around 2 years at that time.

Right now there is actually 81 million stand alone players and 25 million PS2s in the USA. So even today plenty of PS2s are used for DVD playback.

And somewhere i dug up a report that indicated that around 50% used their PS2 dvd for playback..

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/news.php?aid=2135

 

[Sis]

You're right Shifty I do kinda get tired of saying the same thing over and over. It's just that sometimes I can't help it, because I honestly feel like jvd doesn't analyze the whole situation. It's not a gurantee but one does have an advantage of the other. And its not just a technical advantage anymore like the Betamax.

Because he disagrees with you?

Let me attempt to summarize the issues:

1) DVD players were one of the most successful consumer electronic product launches and were showing--by your stats--300-400 percent year/year growth in its early years, even with a competing format (Divx). By the time PS2 was released, its growth appears to have come back from the stratosphere, but that's possibly because people were buying PS2s as DVD players. Regardless, I find it VERY hard to imagine that the PS2 induced higher growth of DVD players and would also place the onus on the person making the claim to back this up with data. In fact, the PS2 probably enjoyed a halo effect with regards to DVDs--not the other way around.

2) DVDs replaced a decidedly inferior product, the VHS tape. Blu-ray and HD-DVD are replacing a very solid product with an immense install base and immense install "library". People are well invested in DVD.

3) As a storage medium, blu-ray is probably very impressive and may prove successful, both for PS3 and computers, WITHOUT replacing DVD as a movie format. The primary issue here will be that DVDs are good enough, even on some HD TVs (I'm stating this from personal experience.)

So I think the debate really is about whether or not blu-ray will be a defacto victor in replacing DVDs. From my perspective, it's not a given and there's not a lot of history to really discern an alternative view. You seem to think it will be and you don't understand why others might disagree, but hopefully I've clarified a few issues.

.Sis

 

[JasonLD]

Can u back this up ? I was actualy in college when this happened and there were more dvd players than ps2s at my campus . Actually only 3 people had ps2s in our dorm building . Dreamcast however was in every other room because you could get it for 100$ and had good drinking games and dvd player were in every 4th room when you counted pcs . We would sit around my 19inch monitor and watch movies on my pc .

I was actually in college too when this happened also...and I have seen lots of people(seriously, like 80% all the friends and people I knew, had PS2 as their main DVD player and started buying DVDs)..I am just basing this from my personal experience. I know PS2 has big influence for at least college kids started to care about buying DVD movies. As for DC, I was only 1 of 3 people who actually had DC in entire whole dorm building..sadly.lol.
PS2 was important in DVD market not because of its installed base but how it influenced people's mindshare by really promoting DVD as "the next thing" Sony is trying to repeat the same thing with blu-ray with PS3.

 

[Ty]

Though I agree with your conclusion (that BR is not by any means the guaranteed victor in the upcoming war) I find similar parallels to the preceeding format conversion (VHS -> DVD).

2) DVDs replaced a decidedly inferior product, the VHS tape. Blu-ray and HD-DVD are replacing a very solid product with an immense install base and immense install "library". People are well invested in DVD.

For instance, BR/HD-DVD are to me, significantly superior to DVDs. At the time DVD players were introduced, VHS players were solid products and of course enjoyed an immense installed base and library.

3) As a storage medium, blu-ray is probably very impressive and may prove successful, both for PS3 and computers, WITHOUT replacing DVD as a movie format. The primary issue here will be that DVDs are good enough, even on some HD TVs (I'm stating this from personal experience.)

I think this may be the key difference that will likely hinder BR/HD-DVD adoption.

When DVD players were introduced, people could immediately see a dramatic difference over the standard VHS player (that and the ease of navigating, bonus materials, etc.)

This time around, I think only a fraction of the TV population is going to be able to see the difference and therefore the demand for adoption is going to be fairly slow.

 

[mckmas8808]

You seem to think it will be and you don't understand why others might disagree, but hopefully I've clarified a few issues.

Sis you and jvd are saying two different things. I competley agree with all of your following comments below.

So I think the debate really is about whether or not blu-ray will be a defacto victor in replacing DVDs. From my perspective, it's not a given and there's not a lot of history to really discern an alternative view.

2) DVDs replaced a decidedly inferior product, the VHS tape. Blu-ray and HD-DVD are replacing a very solid product with an immense install base and immense install "library". People are well invested in DVD.

3) As a storage medium, blu-ray is probably very impressive and may prove successful, both for PS3 and computers, WITHOUT replacing DVD as a movie format. The primary issue here will be that DVDs are good enough, even on some HD TVs (I'm stating this from personal experience.)

I think you are taking what I'm saying the wrong way. Again I agree with your question which is, "Is the world ready for a HD movie media?" It's a great question. But I was talking about which HD media should win in the future.

The one thing thats constant with new products is, the product with the most support seems to always win. And having the companies that BLu-ray has is a big plus. Its no secret that Blu-ray has more support. And again I even agree with jvd that the computer industry has some say on who wins along with the porn industry too actually.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

When DVD players were introduced, people could immediately see a dramatic difference over the standard VHS player (that and the ease of navigating, bonus materials, etc.)

I know plenty of people, me included, that find DVDs far from a wonderful advance from VHS. If it weren't for the improved picture quality and durability I think in virtually every way DVDs are a less friendly medium.

A tape, you put in and play, and can stop and carry on where you left off. A DVD requires several minutes of copyright protection trash, then a fancily animated selection screen to navigate with several seconds between options as screens and effects wipe in and out with various clips of the film you're trying to watch, and if you have to stop and take the DVD out, you can't instantly pick up where you left off. And the bonus features are mostly an utter waste of time. They include the clips that were edited out of the movie because they stink, commentaries often with boring anecdotal comments and often not worth hearing, various still pics and goodness knows what else that, certainly IMO, add nothing to the experience. It'd be better to leave the disc to JUST the film - pop in and play. If HD discs mean MORE trash and unwanted goodies, it'll just be even more wasted effort IMO.

 

[Sean*O]

In fact, the PS2 probably enjoyed a halo effect with regards to DVDs--not the other way around.

This quote is absolutely correct in my experience.

The fact that the PS2 played DVDs was icing on the cake. It was used as a selling point for the system. However, because there will be no installed base of BR players, nor any solid library of Blu-Ray titles when the PS3 launches, Sony won't be able to capitalize upon Blu-Ray's inclusion in the PS3 in the same way they did with DVDs inclusion in the PS2.

Regarding the PS2, how many of us have read or overheard people gushing about how the PS2 "ALSO plays DVDs too"?

When the PS2 launched DVD was taking over the marketplace, and the fact that the PS2 offered DVD playback made the PS2 more enticing to buyers.

But this time, Blu Ray is not taking over the marketplace as DVD once was, so it's almost certain that most of the people buying the PS3 won't even care if it does offer Blu-Ray playback.. They will probably just want to know if it can play DVDs or not.

Sony (and others as well) may be giving the PS2 too much credit for the advancement of the DVD format and expect the same kind of phenomenon to happen with Blu-Ray & PS3, and they might end up losing a lot of money because of it.

 

[Tap In]

In fact, the PS2 probably enjoyed a halo effect with regards to DVDs--not the other way around.

This quote is absolutely correct in my experience.

The fact that the PS2 played DVDs was icing on the cake. It was used as a selling point for the system. However, because there will be no installed base of BR players, nor any solid library of Blu-Ray titles when the PS3 launches, Sony won't be able to capitalize upon Blu-Ray's inclusion in the PS3 in the same way they did with DVDs inclusion in the PS2.

Regarding the PS2, how many of us have read or overheard people gushing about how the PS2 "ALSO plays DVDs too"?

When the PS2 launched DVD was taking over the marketplace, and the fact that the PS2 offered DVD playback made the PS2 more enticing to buyers.

But this time, Blu Ray is not taking over the marketplace as DVD once was, so it's almost certain that most of the people buying the PS3 won't even care if it does offer Blu-Ray playback.. They will probably just want to know if it can play DVDs or not.

Sony (and others as well) may be giving the PS2 too much credit for the advancement of the DVD format and expect the same kind of phenomenon to happen with Blu-Ray & PS3, and they might end up losing a lot of money because of it.

Exactly

this is the factor that is so underestimated when evaluating much of the cause of Sony success this gen and when predicting a dominance once again.

The Dreamcast had NO DVD player and when PS2 came out DVD players were almost as much as a PS2.


The game sell through (iirc) was like 1.5 games sold per PS2 system as many people bought movies for it.

When Xbox launched I'm certain, the fact that it needed an additional purchase to play DVD's hurt it in comparison to PS2 when people (read: not hard -core gamers) were at the big box stores shopping for units. Not to mention that DVD players had dropped in cost by then as well.


I remember SONY even saying at this E3 that they were expecting Blue Ray to give the same boost to PS3 as DVD did for the PS2. (although I could have misinterpreted them saying that the PS3 would give BluRay the boost that Ps2 gave DVD)

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

First... excellent post SiS.

Second: Shifty.. Heheh, first you question 'why are we discussing this yet again', but then go on to later add the extremely relevant points that 1) DVD to VHS was a visual and audio advantage that everybody could see and hear immediately (which won't be the case with BR or HD-DVD) and 2) That due to the digital nature of the DVD, it was actually a more "closed" and "unfriendly" system... you can expect even more "controls" put in with BR and all future HD media which will make them more unfriendly to the average consumer.

Finally.. Getting back to a 'console' point of view, I definately disagree with the idea that if PS3 launches with BR (I'm almost certain it will), and some 'other' standard is adopted that it somehow hurts the PS3. The PS3 will be no worse off. It will still play regular DVDs, which is all the X360 will be able to do. It will simply have an increased storage capacity for media other than movies. Much like computer manufacturers shipping with BR drives regardless of market adoption for movies. Hell, my 7 (?) year old computer had a DVD in it and to this day programs are still shipped on multiple CDs rather than DVDs.

I don't see anything wrong with the PS3 shipping with BR even if that isn't an adopted media standard. Consoles have had proprietary media before. And as I mentioned in some other PS3/X360 threads I think Sony is making a huge mistake by believing that the PS2 CAUSED DVD adoption and that PS3/BR will do the same. PS2 benefited FROM DVD adoption, DVD adoption didn't benefit from the PS2.

 

[Carl B]

Well getting back to the core of the topic rather than furthering the debate on PS2's impact on DVD history, here's some new Kutagari as provided by Gamespot:

...Kutaragi also talked about his decision to adopt Blu-ray for the PlayStation 3 rather than wait a bit longer to see if the Blu-ray and HD-DVD factions would come to a final conclusion on a unified disc standard. "E3 was the last chance," Kutaragi said. "The PS3 is the console of the future, so I wanted an extreme amount of capacity. But for that, we need cutting-edge technology, and not technology that is currently available. My suggestion was to come to an agreement with a physical format that is as close to [the Blu-ray's] 0.1mm as possible. But the PS3 launches in Spring 2006. If we had continued to wait for a unified standard, we wouldn't be able to release the PS3. We no longer have any more time. It's game over."

Kutaragi strongly stressed that he has no plans to compromise on the Blu-ray's 0.1mm physical format, which gives it the upper hand to HD-DVD in terms of capacity. However, he said that he could wait until Spring 2006 to see if Sony and Toshiba could come up with a unified standard that's still based on the Blu-ray's physical format. As long as the change is only in the disc's logical structure, the PS3 can still adapt to it with some software updates. Despite Kutaragi's comments, it has been reported that the Toshiba and Sony are still in negotiations to work on a standard format...

If the Sony/Toshiba/NEC higher-ups do come together to discuss all of this, Kutagari's PS3 decision may put added presure on Toshiba to adopt the physical structure of blu-ray; but who knows, maybe not.

 

[mckmas8808]

Damn xbdestroya thats the find of the day!! Its funny because we are here talking this and that and Ken has already went on record answering our questions. He has answered jvd question of what if they unify after or near the launch of the PS3. I like the software update feature. Obviously it would be a pain for people without broadband internet but at least we could all get an unified HD-media.

Phew that was a close one. Either way I now super confident with the PS3's future. I hope they do unite and send out a software update if (big if) its too late.