BBC: PlayStation 'wins next gen wars' :)

[pcostabel]

IMO:

PS2 early adopters will be ready for a new console in 2005. If Sony doesn't deliver it to them and MS puts together a nice package with two or three popular games (think Grand Theft Auto next, Perfect Dark Zero, and something cool from Tecmo), then Xbox 2 will come out of the gate pretty strong.

This is a real possibility and the only scenario I can think of where MS makes significant marketshare gains next gen. This gen is lasting longer than usual, and early adopter are already eager for the next big thing. They will jump on the first platform out.

I'm pretty sure that MS can get GTA and Splinter Cell games for Xbox 2 launch and the promise of Halo 3 in 2006 (delayed to 2007, but that's beside the point). Then they can fill out the lineup with things like Perfect Dark, EA games, Project Gotham Racing 3, Banjo Kazooie, Killer Instinct, something promising from Digital Anvil and Molyneux (if Fable delivers the goods).

I believe Sony has some kind of exclusivity contract for GTA. I don't know if it extends to next gen, but I wouldn't be surprised.
Aside from GTA and Halo, none of those franchises are system sellers.
Usually, system sellers are new games that push the envelope, not rehash of old series. GTA was so successful because it introduced a different style of gameplay. Halo was a new franchise. Next gen system seller will be something we can't even imagine right now.

They can launch in 2005 at $299 and drop to $249 and put out Halo 3 for the PS3 launch in the US for the Fall of 2006, assuming that's when Sony decideds to launch.

The price cut card is a double edged sword. It may appeal to casual users, but there is also a perception of less value. DreamCast and GameCube are examples that lower price doesn't always translate to bigger market share.

Sony's big problem is that it won't have GT4 and MGS3 until Fall 2004 so it can't possibly have these franchises ready to go until 2006 at the earliest. The PS3 will probably be more difficult to tap then Xbox 2.

The PS2 had a relatively weak launch lineup and it still killed the DC, that arguably had the best games for a new plaform ever. As long as Sony can show a teaser for their big titles, they don't need a killer launch lineup. MGS sold the PS2 two year before it actually came out.

My general feeling is that MS is going to try to play to their strengths: Dev tools. They will make Xbox 2 easy to program and cost effective rather than try to compete with Sony directly.

This didn't work this gen and won't work next gen. Third parties always target the console with the largest installed base first, and port to the others. This means they use cross platform middleware, that abstracts from the devtools for the specific platform. Easy of porting only worked for PC ports to Xbox this gen, and it might still be the case next gen, but with a different processor and no hard drive I think it will largely be a moot point.

Then they can shorten the console cycle to 4 years if they want. Given the easier learning curve and the possibility of launching consoles at $249 instead of $299 or something, they might be able to make this model fly.

4 years is way too short for a generation. Unless they go for backward compatibility, a lot of third party won't even bother supporting a platform that is going to last that short. Not enough time to grow your userbase or to fully take advantage of the hardware. And consumer will likely be pissed to have to buy a new machine every four years.

It's very risky, but if it works then Sony can't hope to recoup their investment in fab technology by the time the sixth generation starts, since Xbox 3 would be unveiled in 2008, only 18 months after PS3 launches.

That assumes that Sony will follow Ms lead. So far the opposite is true, with MS mimicking Sony moves. Sony will decide when next gen starts,
and the next, and the next. Moreover, with diminishing returns every new gen, I predict console lifespan will increase, not shorten, witness this gen.

Cheap, easy to develop for, shortened cycle, concentration on software. That's the route I think MS will attempt to counter Sony's IMO overinvestment in technology.

I agree, that's what they have to do in order to survive. It's not like they have a choice, anyways.

Are gamers really going to notice the difference between 400 million polygons per second and 1 billion? Probably not...

Right. Less reasons to buy a new machine in four years, as I was saying.
But it could work to MS advantage if Xbox2 will be "good enough" a year before PS3 is out.

Think of it this way: MS could spend $100 extra on each Xbox 2 to make it competitive with PS3 technology. That would cost them $1 billion on the first 10 million sold, which is money much better "lost" on software development and marketing...

Absolutely. Unfortunately, their investment in software has produced little this gen, we'll see if they learned from their mistakes.

 

[Cyborg]

OMG! Nostradamus predicted it!

Earth-shaking fire from the Earth

This enterprising and arrogant person, cshony, lots of sheeps following him will dominate the 3rd war

Two great rocks for a long time will make war

Meanest assistance against their frontier, new red river named futility born.

 

[Magnum PI]

there won't be a next generation of console until sony releases PS3.

remember dreamcast ?

microsoft struggles with a technically superior console, what do you think they'll able to do against PS3 released one year later if their console is technically inferior.

by releasing xbox one year sooner all they'll gain is the boute-en-train award.

(le boute-en-train is the male horse which will "prepare" the female horse for the arrival of the stallion. it tries to mount the female, and when the female is ready, it is given a big hit in the genitals, and is driven out of the place.. then the stallion comes and inseminate the willing female..)

 

[Evil_Cloud]

(le boute-en-train is the male horse which will "prepare" the female horse for the arrival of the stallion. it tries to mount the female, and when the female is ready, it is given a big hit in the genitals, and is driven out of the place.. then the stallion comes and inseminate the willing female..)

What are you, a biology teacher?

I think all three consoles will launch very close to each other.
Don't forget Nintendo made free a marketing budget of 1billion $ last year if I am correctly. They're now looking how they can spend that money best.

 

[nobie]

there won't be a next generation of console until sony releases PS3.

remember dreamcast ?

Dreamcast didn't fail because it was released earlier than PS2, Sega had financial troubles and simply couldn't afford to support the platform.

microsoft struggles with a technically superior console, what do you think they'll able to do against PS3 released one year later if their console is technically inferior.

No matter when it's released or how powerful it is, Xenon will not sell better than PS3. The best they can do is to sell as many as possible and make the business profitable (which is not the case right now).

 

[PARANOiA]

there won't be a next generation of console until sony releases PS3.

remember dreamcast ?

Remember Nintendo64?

 

[Magnum PI]

there won't be a next generation of console until sony releases PS3.

remember dreamcast ?

Remember Nintendo64?

i do not see what is your point..

 

[Magnum PI]

Dreamcast didn't fail because it was released earlier than PS2, Sega had financial troubles and simply couldn't afford to support the platform.

when dreamcast was released, most gamers would not buy it but were holding their breath for the playstation 2.

AMHA it played an important role in sega demise.. and the rest is only consequence of that: the only parade sega found was to sell the dreamcast cheaper and cheaper and you're right they simply couldn't afford it.

sony has won the mindshare of gamers.. for most of them videogaming = playstation. playstation became the defacto standard, like VHS..

hard to swallow, as much a me as for most of you (as i'm a gamecube owner and nintendo appreciator).

but this is like it is..

No matter when it's released or how powerful it is, Xenon will not sell better than PS3. The best they can do is to sell as many as possible and make the business profitable (which is not the case right now).

ok i agree w/ you it seems much wiser not to target market dominance at all prices but prosperity, i think it is what nintendo made this round, unlike microsoft.

 

[Magnum PI]

What are you, a biology teacher?

sorry but i don't know the english equivalent of "boute-en-train" so i had to explain... if anyone does know it i would be very happy to learn

 

[cthellis42]

Sounds like an equine fluffer to me, and BOY do I not want to see analogies going that route!

 

[randycat99]

You sick, sick little puppy.

 

[London Geezer]

See i don't even need to be in the threads anymore for them to go all sicky-naughty...

My boys are growing...