Battle of the three? Next gen launch!

[StefanS]

No more GameCube Mario games, an "unconventional" new product, PSP rumors, possible early hardware lanuches, and much more!

Chris Morris, a columnist for CNN Money, has written up an article outlining Nintendo's possible plans for the near future. With the recent GC price cut to $99, and the resulting sales surge, many believe that this is Nintendo's time to get back in the game.


However, there might not be another Mario game in the Cube's future. After a relatively disappointing Super Mario Sunshine, people expecting a true follow up (or that "Mario 128") might not get it. George Harrison told Morris in his article that a new Mario game for the system might be possible, but it's not a sure thing at all.


One thing that is for sure, we probably won't be seeing Nintendo launch its next-gen hardware before Sony or Microsoft will launch theirs. Nintendo is working to meet them at launch, not beat them, says Morris.


Additionally, Nintendo probably isn't going to be producing a new piece of hardware to compete with the new PSP system. That doesn't mean they aren't looking at Sony's unit carefully, because Nintendo is considering it to be a threat to the Game Boy empire, and is treating it as such.


Finally, a surprise is in store for us in the spring of next year:


In August, Nintendo president Satoru Iwata said the company was working on an "unconventional" game product that would be introduced in early 2004.


Is it hardware? Is it software? Harrison said even he didn't know what the company had in mind. ("You can beat me, but I don't know!" is what he actually said.)

We also heard from IGN.com

At any rate, yeah, Too Human looks freakin' amazing. It's been my most anticipated game for something like three years running. The title is still under development by Silicon Knights, the same guys who made Eternal Darkness. You probably don't want to hear this, but I'm almost convinced now that Too Human is going to be a launch title for Nintendo's next console

I haven't heard anything about Metroid Prime2 in while as well...

It sure seems to me like Nintendo is preparing for a simultaneous launch of all 3 major consoles 2005/2006...
So what is everyone thinking about a triple launch? Who will benefit the most? MS, Nintendo or Sony (alphabetic order)? What kind of launch games do you expect?

 

[Paul]

Really hard to say...

Nintendo would be there with 1-2 killer first party games.

MS with maybe a Halo 3.

And Sony with obviously the most 3rd party support and while they may not have a killer first party title, they would have a few GOOD titles. Like the PS2 launch.

 

[notAFanB]

MS with maybe a Halo 3.

er, they'll prolly have more than that. try some sega titles of some sort, Deus next and of course DOAXX

 

[StefanS]

Really hard to say...

Nintendo would be there with 1-2 killer first party games.

MS with maybe a Halo 3.

And Sony with obviously the most 3rd party support and while they may not have a killer first party title, they would have a few GOOD titles. Like the PS2 launch.

I think Sony would probably have Tekken, Ridge Racer given PS/PS2 launch games.
Halo is a given for MS. Maybe DOA...
Nintendo see above...

 

[cybamerc]

Unless the second Bungie team has been working on Halo 3 after Project Phoenix was cancelled you won't see Halo 3 for the Xbox 2 launch.

 

[StefanS]

Unless the second Bungie team has been working on Halo 3 after Project Phoenix was cancelled you won't see Halo 3 for the Xbox 2 launch.

That could be the reason it was cancelled. Halo is MS biggest license and a simultaneous launch would be a fierce and gruesome battle, nobody would join that unarmed...

 

[Johnny Awesome]

You're probably right. More likely Perfect Dark Zero, Banjo Kazooie, and something from Digital Anvil. Maybe a Project Gotham 3 though.

 

[StefanS]

More likely Perfect Dark Zero, Banjo Kazooie

Wouldn't that be the first ever Rareware game ready at launch?

 

[chaphack]

Simultaneous launch, simultaneous 3rd party software!

 

[notAFanB]

Simultaneous launch, simultaneous 3rd party software!

that would be unprecedented!!!!

 

[Evil_Cloud]

Viewtiful Joe 2, Mario 128, Pilot Wings 2, Too Humed, Eternal Darkness 2, Animal Crossing 2,... who knows a realistic Zelda... Nintendo would totally win the launch

 

[Tuttle]

It doesn't really matter.

If you are a console development house CEO, VP of Development, or the like what console are you thinking about? PS3. You are already planning on having launch versions of your major frachises. Depending on how big you are you are working on getting early prototypes or hardware docs so you can get your in-house tools/tech group working on libraries.

You know Nintendo will be there at some point and you know that you will port at least some of your titles to it, but you see Nintendo as a source of supplementary income to the PS3.

You don't know what to think about MS. All the x86 development houses that saw the original XBox as a easy way to dump a quick and easy port, probably now are feeling bitter,bewildered about the future for the platform.

There is nothing to indicate any other thing than the vast majority of console games that people want to play are already targeted for Sony.

 

[Tahir2]

Nintendo has admitted that their flagship products, Mario Sunshine and Zelda has done little to bolster sales as releases of these AAA games are too little too late. Nintendo to survive needs to increase its output and perhaps start developing more mainstream games to combat Sony and Microsoft.

 

[Tuttle]

Nintendo has admitted that their flagship products, Mario Sunshine and Zelda has done little to bolster sales as releases of these AAA games are too little too late. Nintendo to survive needs to increase its output and perhaps start developing more mainstream games to combat Sony and Microsoft.

You're assuming Nintendo's goal is to compete against Sony.

Nintendo's business plan has always been:

1) Make great games
2) Make efficient hardware that plays those games well
3) Obtain sufficient 3rd party support to create a market for the console

The mainline franchise titles for the GameCube were weak in comparison to previous console cycles for Nintendo. Nintendo needs to do a better job the next time around, not make different games.

 

[Tahir2]

Yes I am assuming Sony is Nintendo's peer and target. If Nintendo does not assume that (which I believe that they finally do) then Nintendo will become a niche player rather than industry leader.

Of course Nintendo could continue to play to the tune of its eve dwindling hardcore fan base until they finally resign out of the hardware business but Nintendo are not that stupid IMHO.

 

[StefanS]

It doesn't really matter.

If you are a console development house CEO, VP of Development, or the like what console are you thinking about? PS3. You are already planning on having launch versions of your major frachises. Depending on how big you are you are working on getting early prototypes or hardware docs so you can get your in-house tools/tech group working on libraries.

You know Nintendo will be there at some point and you know that you will port at least some of your titles to it, but you see Nintendo as a source of supplementary income to the PS3.

You don't know what to think about MS. All the x86 development houses that saw the original XBox as a easy way to dump a quick and easy port, probably now are feeling bitter,bewildered about the future for the platform.

There is nothing to indicate any other thing than the vast majority of console games that people want to play are already targeted for Sony.

The thing is as a software house, your aim is to increase revenue and thus profit. To achieve that you need to sell as much as possible of your titles. At a simultaneous launch all 3 console manufacturers have an installed base of zero (more sold consoles, bigger market). There's absolutely no garantuee that your title is going to sell better on -INSERT CONSOLE X- than on -INSERT CONSOLE Y-. Sure the main developement platform is PS3 -given the success of the last 2 gen- , but in order to maximize profit you're going to go multiplatform at launch. Later on you'll determine who has the most installed units and that's going to be your main platform. That is of course unless there're money hats involved to secure exclusive rights for your games, thus making your games more profitable being on 1 console...

 

[cthellis42]

And install base of zero to be sure, which means backwards-compatability may play a much bigger role as well. Sony's been confirmed, and one assumes that since Nintendo is FINALLY optical they will strive to as well, but considering Microsoft's major design alterations it's still a big for them right now.

Meanwhile, I rather imagine launch titles will be a reflection of their curren audiences. Developers will aim first at the platform which best sold the games/genres they are developing towards. (Filtered of course through overall platform success and assuming momentum, as well as through the technical hoops they find they have to go through for the timeframe they're looking at.)

 

[Paul]

On launch PS3 will have hundreds upon hundreds of games already for the system because of backwards compatability. A good feature I think, PSONE and PS2 will live on.

I don't expect N5 to play GC games, but on the case of Xbox2, Bach has this to say.

"Robbie Bach confirms that Microsoft have yet to decide whether the Xbox2 will feature backwards compatability...

Speaking to a German magazine, Robbie Bach, Senior Vice-President Microsoft Game Division, confirmed that the company has yet to decide whether the Xbox2 will run Xbox games.

http://www.totalvideogames.com/?section=Read News&id=4127&gameid=2928&format=000005

Who knows.[/i]

 

[cthellis42]

I don't expect N5 to play GC games, but on the case of Xbox2, Bach has this to say.

Why not? They're finally in a form where they CAN on the main consoles, and they've certainly seen how it's helped them in the portable arena. We're unaware as to the exact specifics of their hardware right now and how much effort they've expended exploring that avenue, but they appear to be following some of the same avenues as the GameCube, so I would expect keeping backwards compatability to be a high-enough priority and not involve paramount technical liabilities to overcome.

 

[Almasy]

It doesn't really matter.

If you are a console development house CEO, VP of Development, or the like what console are you thinking about? PS3. You are already planning on having launch versions of your major frachises. Depending on how big you are you are working on getting early prototypes or hardware docs so you can get your in-house tools/tech group working on libraries.

You know Nintendo will be there at some point and you know that you will port at least some of your titles to it, but you see Nintendo as a source of supplementary income to the PS3.

You don't know what to think about MS. All the x86 development houses that saw the original XBox as a easy way to dump a quick and easy port, probably now are feeling bitter,bewildered about the future for the platform.

There is nothing to indicate any other thing than the vast majority of console games that people want to play are already targeted for Sony.

The thing is as a software house, your aim is to increase revenue and thus profit. To achieve that you need to sell as much as possible of your titles. At a simultaneous launch all 3 console manufacturers have an installed base of zero (more sold consoles, bigger market). There's absolutely no garantuee that your title is going to sell better on -INSERT CONSOLE X- than on -INSERT CONSOLE Y-. Sure the main developement platform is PS3 -given the success of the last 2 gen- , but in order to maximize profit you're going to go multiplatform at launch. Later on you'll determine who has the most installed units and that's going to be your main platform. That is of course unless there're money hats involved to secure exclusive rights for your games, thus making your games more profitable being on 1 console...

Well, AFAIK Tuttle has plenty of experience in that side of the business, so I tend to agree with him, partly because it just makes sense.

Your scenario is founded on the idea that all consoles will start exactly the same, but the market (and publishers) show us that this is a highly unlikely scenario, if not an impossible one. Afterall, plenty of software publishers had already chosen PS2 as the next big thing years ago, despite DC´s easier (and perhaps cheaper) development environment.

I anticipate that Sony will have the biggest "hype", by far. It is the next big thing from the market leader that knows what the consumer wants, so its understandable that the consumer already knows that Sony will deliver the games they desire. Thier marketing department is also among the best and they will make sure to get the point across to the masses of how powerfull Sony´s new machine is, so draw your own conclusions. Sure, pubishers can´t know with certainty which console will sell more, but it doesn´t exactly take a genius to figure out which one will most likely sell more.

MS is a big question mark at the moment. Why? Because XB2 is probably alienating their biggest strenght at the moment, easy PC ports and PC games. So, I really don´t know in terms of software what is MS exactly going to deliver, but I do think that it´s going to be a different kind of machine than Xbox is.

About Nintendo, well, I don´t see them stepping away from their traditional tactics and policies, and I see publishers developing for it as a secondary plattform (one of the strongest reasons is that, for the most part, Nintendo hardware almost always only sells Nintendo software). Nintendo has spoken lately about change, but they have been talking about it for a considerable ammount of time and frankly, I remain skeptical on the issue because there´s no proof of a change of attitude in Nintendo or at least not one that is considerable enough.