Battle of the three? Next gen launch!

[StefanS]

Well, AFAIK Tuttle has plenty of experience in that side of the business, so I tend to agree with him, partly because it just makes sense.

Your scenario is founded on the idea that all consoles will start exactly the same, but the market (and publishers) show us that this is a highly unlikely scenario, if not an impossible one. Afterall, plenty of software publishers had already chosen PS2 as the next big thing years ago, despite DC´s easier (and perhaps cheaper) development environment.

So far, officials from Nintendo and MS have stated that they're going to launch Sony side by side to Sony.

I anticipate that Sony will have the biggest "hype", by far. It is the next big thing from the market leader that knows what the consumer wants, so its understandable that the consumer already knows that Sony will deliver the games they desire. Thier marketing department is also among the best and they will make sure to get the point across to the masses of how powerfull Sony´s new machine is, so draw your own conclusions. Sure, pubishers can´t know with certainty which console will sell more, but it doesn´t exactly take a genius to figure out which one will most likely sell more.

Nobody doubts that Sony has enormous marketing power, but I remember the PS2 offering only average to below avergae launch software... At a simultaneous launch this could be a handicap...
Sure, as I said above, the PS3 is going to be the main developement platform at launch for 3rd parties; but since the user base at launch is pretty small, you're gonna sell more by going multiplatform...

 

[Phil]

Nobody doubts that Sony has enormous marketing power, but I remember the PS2 offering only average to below avergae launch software... At a simultaneous launch this could be a handicap...

...bearing in mind of course that Sony was in the knowledge of launchin over a year in advance and had only one competitor to worry about, if even that. Funny though, when has a console ever had killer apps? I remember Nintendo's launch being no better than either PS2s or Dreamcasts (speaking of here in Europe). Not even Xbox with Halo was much better. I'd say the impact games had on each console's launch is about the same on a broader scale by any means.

Getting back to the poll, who I think will benefit the most of a simultaneous launch.

Well, I voted for Sony simply because of the mindshare and hype already going for it. As a competitor, I wouldn't hope to compete unless I had some really good cards going for me. I think Nintendo will do well as always thanks to their exclusives, though I see Microsoft in some trouble as they are ultimately challenging Sony out if they launch at the same time (same target audience). If this is the case, it should be Microsoft's aim to snap some consumers off Sony's list and to do that, the only way I can see them doing that is by launching their big sellers (PGR, Halo, Dead or Alive) including some very good and unique games that would have a serious impact on consumers. In other words, they would want to achieve the effect such as Sony did with EyeToy. This means, for Microsoft to be able to compete, they have to be better, not equal.

Knowing Sony and the importance of having a good launch, I'm sure one of the big selling franchises (Gran Turismo, MGS - really anything) would be there ready to launch. This in itself would make it really hard for Microsoft to compete since Sony would be targeting 'their' consumers - the ~60 million they have supporting them right this moment.

So IMHO, if I were Microsoft, I'd rather go for an earlier launch than head to head.

 

[chaphack]

MS and Nintendo could be better off, if Sony dont make enough PS3 to satisfied the hyperion demand or that there is not enough tuff PS3 games to entice considering consumers.

 

[notAFanB]

MS and Nintendo could be better off, if Sony dont make enough PS3 to satisfied the hyperion demand or that there is not enough tuff PS3 games to entice considering consumers.

that's valid enough, at an competitive pricepoint this could divert sales away from PS3 nicely.

althoug I'm gonna stay away from playing nostradamaus on what the anticipation will be like at that point.

 

[Wunderchu]

Nobody doubts that Sony has enormous marketing power, but I remember the PS2 offering only average to below avergae launch software... At a simultaneous launch this could be a handicap...

...when has a console ever had killer apps?

Soul Calibur was a launch title for Dreamcast (in North America) ....... Soul Calibur was without a doubt a killer app ..... in fact, to this day some people are of the opinion that Soul Calibur was the best game ever released on Dreamcast ....

 

[cthellis42]

Hear hear!

And on that note, I shall go downstairs and play some Soul Calibur. Hehe...

 

[StefanS]

Nobody doubts that Sony has enormous marketing power, but I remember the PS2 offering only average to below avergae launch software... At a simultaneous launch this could be a handicap...

...bearing in mind of course that Sony was in the knowledge of launchin over a year in advance and had only one competitor to worry about, if even that. Funny though, when has a console ever had killer apps? I remember Nintendo's launch being no better than either PS2s or Dreamcasts (speaking of here in Europe). Not even Xbox with Halo was much better. I'd say the impact games had on each console's launch is about the same on a broader scale by any means.

launch titles Japan:

PS2 (those I have found):

Namco's Ridge Racer V
Capcom's Street Fighter EX3
Koei's Kessen
Drum Mania

http://ps2.ign.com/articles/076/076088p1.html


Xbox (Halo was released later in Japan):
"JSRF - Jet Set Radio Future?"
"GENMA ONIMUSHA?"
"SILENT HILL 2: Saigo no Uta"
"DOUBLE-S.T.E.A.L."
"AIR FORCE DELTA II"
"HYPER SPORTS 2002 WINTER"
"ESPN Winter X Games Snowboarding 2002"
"Nobunaga's Ambition: Chronicles of Chaos" .
"Nezmix"
"Tenku: Freestyle Snowboarding"
"Project Gotham Racing?: World Street Racer"
"DEAD OR ALIVE 3"

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/Press/2002/Jan02/01-11LaunchDetailsJapanPR.asp


GCN:

The three Gamecube launch games were recently reviewed by Famitsu, the scores are: Luigi's Mansion 34 out of 40, Super Monkey Ball 32 out of 40, and WaveRace: Blue Storm 32 out of 40. Famitsu, a weekly Japanese game magazine, is known for giving tough but honest game reviews. Zelda The Ocarina of Time was the last Nintendo game to received a perfect score of 40. The Nintendo GameCube goes on sale in Japan on Friday September 14th.


Luigi's Mansion received review scores of 9, 9, 8, and 8 by the magazine. The reviewers said the game's atmosphere is spooky and said that the control system, while tricky at first, works well. Wave Race: Blue Storm received review scores of 8, 9, 8 and 7, and the publication commented that the game is beautiful and filled with different weather variables and play options. Super Monkey Ball scored 8, 8, 8 and 8.

Source Famitsu

http://members.aol.com/mips36/sep2k1old.htm

Knowing Sony and the importance of having a good launch, I'm sure one of the big selling franchises (Gran Turismo, MGS - really anything) would be there ready to launch. This in itself would make it really hard for Microsoft to compete since Sony would be targeting 'their' consumers - the ~60 million they have supporting them right this moment.

So IMHO, if I were Microsoft, I'd rather go for an earlier launch than head to head.

That was what is was getting at, Sony should meet the others with a big selling franchise, because Nintendo & MS sure will have their key franchises ready...

 

[Tagrineth]

GameCube had an undeniable killer app within weeks of launch. It's still GCN's top selling game, in fact.

 

[Phil]

hupfinsgack:

Firstly, why are you comparing the launches of both consoles in Japan? It would make more sense to compare either the PS2 US launch with that of the Japanese Xbox one, as they both had an undeniably better software line up at the later launch. Even so, I was thinking of the US/European launches for the most part in which PS2 was far from bad in my and in the eyes of most reviewers: SSX as well as Tekken Tag had respectable scores, not to mention TimeSplitters which is still an awesome multiplayer game despite the lacking single player experience.

Anyway, I don't quite see much sense in comparing these totally different launches as they both are so different. It was important for Xbox to have a good launch lineup, especially being the new challenger to the market. Nintendo had all reason to be there in order to meet what the Xbox had to offer. On the other hand, PS2 had little to no competition. It should be interesting to see what launch lineup each next gen console has to offer if they happen to launch within the same timeframe and have roughly the same rush to compete against eachother.

One thing I'm quite sure about though: I don't see an established franchise to be that huge of a factor for Sony as it would be for Xbox, though it would be a chance to get a even better start having one of them ready for launch.

 

[StefanS]

hupfinsgack:
Firstly, why are you comparing the launches of both consoles in Japan? It would make more sense to compare either the PS2 US launch with that of the Japanese Xbox one, as they both had an undeniably better software line up at the later launch.

No, it wouldn't, since consoles usually launch in Japan first...

Anyway, I don't quite see much sense in comparing these totally different launches as they both are so different. It was important for Xbox to have a good launch lineup, especially being the new challenger to the market. Nintendo had all reason to be there in order to meet what the Xbox had to offer. On the other hand, PS2 had little to no competition. It should be interesting to see what launch lineup each next gen console has to offer if they happen to launch within the same timeframe and have roughly the same rush to compete against eachother.

It is pretty safe to assume that all manufacturers had the same timeframe for developement (except Xbox). Timespan PS-PS2 is roughly the same as N64-GCN. So what're you getting at?

One thing I'm quite sure about though: I don't see an established franchise to be that huge of a factor for Sony as it would be for Xbox, though it would be a chance to get a even better start having one of them ready for launch.

Yes, Sony has more potential buyers; but a killer app could alter the initial sales numbers for one manufacturer...

 

[Phil]

No, it wouldn't, since consoles usually launch in Japan first...

...given that the manufacturer are Japanese. I ought to remind you that Xbox launched in US first and I expect them to do so this time 'round as well given that that is where their core audience is (I actually expect next gen to launch in all territories in the same timeframe, unlike PS2). Even then, you were comparing the rushed Jap PS2 launch (March 2000) with the prepared Xbox launch 3 months after its US debut.

It is pretty safe to assume that all manufacturers had the same timeframe for developement (except Xbox). Timespan PS-PS2 is roughly the same as N64-GCN. So what're you getting at?

I am mainly refering to Xbox <> PS2. The PS2 Jap launch was rushed, I think this is shown quite nicely by the software which was then tweaked for the US and European market.

Yes, Sony has more potential buyers; but a killer app could alter the initial sales numbers for one manufacturer...

Exactly.