Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[iroboto]

The only confirmed Scarlett game we know about was announced as cross gen.

I assume you're referring to Halo Infinite. In some ways Infinite is like TLOU2 - arriving at the end of the generation and beginning of another. On this point I expect PS4/5 to support TLOU2 likewise XBO and X2 to support Infinite. They are both good titles to have for a 'launch' if your'e trying to get people to hop over.

Various MS execs have made statements indicating their intent to continue supporting XO in the long term. Rumors have gone around suggesting that no Scarlett exclusives are planned for the first 2-3 years of the console.

Indeed, this is a fair point. I think we have several threads on the mixed messaging from Phil and the xbox team here. While I agree it is open to interpretation, I suspect Phil likely just means, the whole library of the older generations move forward into next generation. I don't necessarily think this means that all Scarlett titles are meant to run on XBO.

Considering the resurgence of a potential Lockheart, the different demands of the streaming market, and the existence of Play Anywhere it's easy to see a strategy to maintain broad software support, including things like making sure their games don't require an SSD on PC, etc.

This point should be developed further on this thread. It's probably the most important item to discuss. Sony's solution in simple in that their exclusives are tied to the console and only the console; making programming decisions based upon the hardware trivial. But this only applies to Sony's first party output.

So what about the 3rd party titles? Do they ignore the SSD advantages on offer by Sony because they also have to create something on PC? This has been a large question of mine, and of course coupled with whatever MS is doing leaves some discussion worth having.

I don't think there are a lot of options available for MS here so I'm just going to lay out what I think will happen within the next year.
Late 2020:
Windows 10 upgrade - nvme support; this will ideally have an effect of taking single I/O calls and letting the OS determine how to multi-thread it to maximize nvme protocol. But Windows 10 will need to keep up with the consoles in some form or another.

Consoles launch - Third Party titles will design NVME/SSD based games

PC - Hard drive requirement to nvme SSDs. Seems brutal at first but if we're real about it many PC users will be left behind with the Memory/CPU requirements and possibly GPU requirements.

XCloud + PSNow - the only alternative for PC users that don't meet the above requirements. I expect there to be next gen hardware on the cloud to run those titles for launch.

Their latest tactic in widening their potential user base appears to be an attempt to "disrupt" generational shifts and focusing on subscription services.

If the consoles are shifting the baseline hardware requirements forward on PC, then streaming is a viable method to allow users to keep up without having to purchase the hardware.

 

[bgroovy]

I assume you're referring to Halo Infinite. In some ways Infinite is like TLOU2 - arriving at the end of the generation and beginning of another. On this point I expect PS4/5 to support TLOU2 likewise XBO and X2 to support Infinite. They are both good titles to have for a 'launch' if your'e trying to get people to hop over.

Well, TLOU2 is going to have been out for 6 months by the time PS5 is out. It'll be a nice bonus along side the actual PS5 only games Sony will have. That's a pretty big difference from having your biggest console launch title possible held back by a last gen Xbox One S.

This point should be developed further on this thread. It's probably the most important item to discuss. Sony's solution in simple in that their exclusives are tied to the console and only the console; making programming decisions based upon the hardware trivial. But this only applies to Sony's first party output.

It only has to be Sony's first party output to demonstrate an advantage and sway purchasing decisions.

If the consoles are shifting the baseline hardware requirements forward on PC, then streaming is a viable method to allow users to keep up without having to purchase the hardware.

The market has always been happy to upgrade their hardware. I don't think a hardware upgrade cost is suddenly going to be a dealbreaker for most people actually engaged in the market.

 

[RDGoodla]

I have no doubts this is a situation where these are likely exceptions and not the rule. But it puts into question whether a game could absolutely require as a bare minimum 6TF of compute just to calculate non graphic related items. If so; it’s likely to be very very rare.

With the news of surprisingly low spec of lockhart, I would even doubt other things that will affect game design. For example, what if MS uses some regular solution of SSD (1GB/s) for lockhart. Or lockhart even only has 4 cores of ZEN2 CPU.

 

[Betanumerical]

With the news of surprisingly low spec of lockhart, I would even doubt other things that will affect game design. For example, what if MS uses some regular solution of SSD (1GB/s) for lockhart. Or lockhart even only has 4 cores of ZEN2 CPU.

I personally think that using a much weaker CPU in lockhart would be a poor decision. The majority of CPU time will be spent on things that do not scale based on the resolution the games running at, making porting down more difficult or not possible depending on the situation.

 

[iroboto]

Well, TLOU2 is going to have been out for 6 months by the time PS5 is out. It'll be a nice bonus along side the actual PS5 only games Sony will have. That's a pretty big difference from having your biggest console launch title possible held back by a last gen Xbox One S.

I don't think (being held back by XBO) is really going to be a factor whether or not it succeeds or not. There would likely be bigger issues to point at then someone saying that Halo Infinite failed because it wasn't developed specifically for next gen only. Just given it's past criticisms.

It only has to be Sony's first party output to demonstrate an advantage and sway purchasing decisions.

It's difficult to showcase how a game requires SSD to run. To date Star Citizen might be the only game where it requires it, aside from frame rate issues, players will have a difficult time identifying how the SSD it being used. You can indeed showcase instant loading times, or near instant though. But if it's only applying to Sony's first party, it's not that big of a seller.

The goal for both Sony and MS is to ensure that it works for 3rd party as well; which means it must come to PC.
MS must respond in kind; much like moving DX12 to PC, then saturation of nvme on PC for games must be supported.

The market has always been happy to upgrade their hardware. I don't think a hardware upgrade cost is suddenly going to be a dealbreaker for most people actually engaged in the market.

I agree with that, at leas the upper end PC market. The lower and middle tiers are going to be left out. Which may have been a concern for 3rd party developers in the past.

 

[AzBat]

Could Lockhart be a portable? Thus not needing the same CPU as Anaconda?

Tommy McClain

 

[iroboto]

With the news of surprisingly low spec of lockhart, I would even doubt other things that will affect game design. For example, what if MS uses some regular solution of SSD (1GB/s) for lockhart. Or lockhart even only has 4 cores of ZEN2 CPU.

As per Betanumerical; the only thing really scalable in this situation is the available amount of GPU power. Memory (maybe), Storage and CPU need to stay constant.

 

[iroboto]

Could Lockhart be a portable? Thus not needing the same CPU as Anaconda?

Tommy McClain

No; too much power to be portable.
Xcloud is fair game for something in that power profile.

 

[AzBat]

No; too much power to be portable.
Xcloud is fair game for something in that power profile.

Hmm. Ok :/ I was fine with Lockhart if it was a cheaper SKU that played 1080p or 1440p versions of Anaconda games at 4k, but if the CPU difference is true then I'm not so sure. Hopefully more details get leaked. Sure hope Microsoft knows what it's doing.

Tommy McClain

 

[PSman1700]

Excuse me while I laugh at such a definitive statement based off nothing but rumors with absolutely no solid information available.

Agree, was just kidding, offcourse. Both MS and sony are going to have great games/gfx.

 

[McHuj]

Games run at 1080p-1440p 30-60fps on Lockhart. 60-120fps 4k on Anaconda.
.

what if a dev decides to target 1440p/30 with some crazy new rendering scheme and RT on Anaconda/PS5? How will that Lockhart port hold up? 720p in 2020+?

I think having only a single tier of console gives Sony a lot of flexibility as to how devs can target the available power.

 

[Mskx]

Could Lockhart be a portable? Thus not needing the same CPU as Anaconda?

Tommy McClain

No.
...
Maybe?

I think fitting all of it into a handheld devíce would be pretty much impossible(unless 5nm... ) but maybe in a laptop type form factor or something similar?
Honestly, that would probably get me to buy a Lockhart.

 

[Proelite]

what if a dev decides to target 1440p/30 with some crazy new rendering scheme and RT on Anaconda/PS5? How will that Lockhart port hold up? 720p in 2020+?

I think having only a single tier of console gives Sony a lot of flexibility as to how devs can target the available power.

720p-1080p

Such a dev is probably not looking to put their game on PC....

 

[Jay]

How will that Lockhart port hold up? 720p in 2020+?

900p, I don't see a problem with that.
If Anaconda and PS5 can manage the same fallout from people saying 1440p30 on console that's supposed to be 4k60.
People buying Lockhart don't care as much as those people about resolution.
They've bought buget/entry model.

People running out and buying Xbox sad right now aren't worried about it either, their buying based on what they perceive as being a good value, even with the limitations.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

More interesting nextgen dosage stolen from Era. It all sounds like Scarlett launch games wont be taken full advantage of the new hardware due to Lockhart and Xbox One family holding back for compatibility, while PS5 launch titles are native next gen.

I personally think that using a much weaker CPU in lockhart would be a poor decision. The majority of CPU time will be spent on things that do not scale based on the resolution the games running at, making porting down more difficult or not possible depending on the situation.

This is not great, if true. Most games are cross-platform and if Microsoft mandate all future Xbox games must run on both configurations that low-ball configuration will hold back both Xbox and PlayStation cross-platform games. I suspect a piece of the puzzle of missing.

 

[JoeJ]

if Microsoft mandate all future Xbox games must run on both configurations

What if they market both model differently enough and allow games targeting only the higher spec this time? (Also, versions could have different release dates.)
I really hope so. Would be a interesting situation, moving away from fixed hardware tiers updating only every 5 years, which is just as restrictive as a lower power variant on the long run and feels old school already .
Otherwise, Lockhart could become the Kinect of next gen i guess. :|

 

[Deleted member 11852]

What if they market both model differently enough and allow games targeting only the higher spec this time? (Also, versions could have different release dates.) I really hope so. Would be a interesting situation, moving away from fixed hardware tiers updating only every 5 years, which is just as restrictive as a lower power variant on the long run and feels old school already .

Add this the the absurdly long list of what-ifs but this would seem to undermine the vision of a single generation-less Xbox platform going forward.

Otherwise, Lockhart could become the Kinect of next gen i guess. :|

And Microsoft were right to throw Kinect under a bus. Xbox sold immediately better following it. Sometimes things just don't work out and you either entrench yourself in denial, shaking your fist at the clouds or you change things.

As I said in my previous post, I think a piece of the puzzle is missing. A very critical piece of the puzzle and Microsoft will share it when they are ready. Then I imagine things will make more sense.

 

[Jay]

As per Betanumerical; the only thing really scalable in this situation is the available amount of GPU power. Memory (maybe), Storage and CPU need to stay constant.

Can scale down SSD and memory slightly, but lot more factors come into play than with gpu, and getting it wrong would have a much bigger and lasting impact.

 

[BRiT]

What if Lockhart is just an addon companion upgrade for Anaconda when combined provide additional fidelity? So you have 10TF Anaconda and can upgrade it to 14TF or 18TF or 22TF with 1, 2, or 3 Lockharts? Or to 20TF with 2 Anacondas?






Hey, this is the baseless thread afterall...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Buy two Anacondas, get a Lockhart free. The Lockhart can also be used standalone in another room to stream from your dual-Anaconda.