Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by BRiT, Jun 9, 2019.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
    Legend Veteran

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2012
    Messages:
    6,337
    Likes Received:
    5,668
    My parents saw it as an investment. They thought I would become the next Bill Gates with this.

    It turned out to be a bad investment, relatively speaking.
     
    milk likes this.
  2. BRiT

    BRiT Verified (╯°□°)╯
    Moderator Legend Alpha

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    13,072
    Location:
    Cleveland
    I now have faith that they could offer mid-gen upgrades, though far less improvement than PS4 to 4Pro. With more "conservative" 12TF systems, having mid-gen around 24TF in 3.5 years seems not impossible.
     
  3. DSoup

    DSoup meh
    Legend Veteran Subscriber

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2007
    Messages:
    12,100
    Likes Received:
    7,289
    Location:
    London, UK
    Maybe they'll bring their follow-up game, Life of Deer, to nextgen.

     
    Mitchings, turkey and BRiT like this.
  4. London-boy

    London-boy Shifty's daddy
    Legend Subscriber

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2002
    Messages:
    21,908
    Likes Received:
    6,043
    No. They didn’t. You can’t. No. No way.
     
    Mitchings, milk and DSoup like this.
  5. AbsoluteBeginner

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2019
    Messages:
    764
    Likes Received:
    977
    So I just did some napkin math related to SOC costs of next gen consoles based on AMDs yielded mm²/$ for 7nm vs 16nm, waffer price difference between the two and XBX/XBS SOC costs (AMD royalities included).

    For XSX costs are :

    380mm² - ~170-190$
    400mm² - ~180-200$

    This is slightly less then 2x per mm² vs Xbox One (28mm²) and around 1.5x per mm² vs XBX.

    With 16-20GB of DDDR6 and 1TB SSD we could see BOM go above 500$.

    Edit

    Substracted ~50-60$ duo to packaging and additional costs being taken into ~1.5-2x formila.
     
    #8265 AbsoluteBeginner, Mar 7, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2020
    VitaminB6, Pixel and PSman1700 like this.
  6. anexanhume

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Messages:
    1,917
    Likes Received:
    1,253
    There’s still some ambiguity in that 1.5x PPW. Is that N7P to N7+? Does it rely heavily on VRS? How is it normalized? E.g. are they pushing the clocks really high where RDNA 1.0 efficiency goes kaput but their design enhancements improve things? If N7+ is involved, we can’t necessarily consoles will get that part of the benefit.

    The latest estimates don’t use the 2x per yielded mm^2 due to the age of that statistic.

    They use a known wafer price and known defect density, which recently became public knowledge. That gets you a XSX SoC price in the mid $1xx range.
     
    disco_, BRiT, lynux3 and 1 other person like this.
  7. AbsoluteBeginner

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2019
    Messages:
    764
    Likes Received:
    977
    I actually used it as top end estimate, I used waffer price/dies per waffer as well as cost per transistor and got somewhat of an average.

    If price for ~400mm² was in ~150$ range, that would make it only 23% more expensive per mm² then 28nm and actually cheaper per mm² then 16nm which doesnt make sense at all.

    Cost per transistor is following expected downtrend, but cost per mm² is up.

    Can you post how you calculated it? I tried to use several different data sources. For example, Polaris line od GPUs at 230mm² is ~200$ while 250mm² Navi line is ~380$. There has to be difference somewhere there, and its not only gross margines.

    Edit.

    I made mistake on calculation, but even with best case scenario I didnt get lower then 200$ for 400mm².
     
    #8267 AbsoluteBeginner, Mar 7, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2020
    PSman1700 likes this.
  8. anexanhume

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Messages:
    1,917
    Likes Received:
    1,253
    Wafer cost is just under 10K according to IBS. That's rather close to the 2x factor AMD previously claimed compared to 16nm.



    We know N7 yield is excellent historically thanks for David Schor.


    This is a defect density of 0.09 per cm^2. I would note that cross-correlating the two graphs show large die are actually a little better than this.



    With a wafer cost of $10,000 and the above yield metrics, you get 97 good die per wafer, assuming a 20x20 die for 70% yield (you can change the aspect ratio to 2:1 and only get one less die yielded). That comes out to $103 per part. That's probably dice/bumped/tested, but not packaged, so there's some further costs to add before it appears as the level of assembly people like IIHS are using for their BOMs. At the time, I felt a ~50% mark-up was plenty conservative for the further processing and margin of intermediate players to get an estimate.
     
    #8268 anexanhume, Mar 7, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2020
    PSman1700, BRiT, lynux3 and 2 others like this.
  9. AbsoluteBeginner

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2019
    Messages:
    764
    Likes Received:
    977
    I did take this data in formula, but that would make 16nm chip like one in Pro ~43$ and one in XBX ~48$, which seems way to low. Now, yields on 16nm are probably better then back in late 2017, but that chip was at least ~120-130$.

    And going by their own calculations, price per mm² on 7nm v 16nm is higher by 61%. This would mean Navi 10 chip is 70$ a pop, which does not fit with AMDs gross margins at all.

    So if fab of 400mm² chip is 97$, by that very same formula for same size of XBX chip it would be~ 86$ on 7nm (ignoring few % for yields, 400*0.89). It would actually fit at additional ~60-80% vs 16nm per mm² but there is no way XBX SOC is less then 50$ in BOM.

    Something doesnt add up.
     
    #8269 AbsoluteBeginner, Mar 7, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2020
    PSman1700 and BRiT like this.
  10. anexanhume

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Messages:
    1,917
    Likes Received:
    1,253
    If you assume the rest of the process is relatively the same (it cost no more to test, package etc. a 7nm die), then the wafer delta of a 7nm part using the above math adds at most a $50 premium on a 16nm part assuming the generous 2x cost factor and dividing the $103 by 2.

    That way you can focus on the known cost factors.
     
  11. AbsoluteBeginner

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2019
    Messages:
    764
    Likes Received:
    977
    True, but I think its more then 50$ premium (or chip is a more expensive to produce). I doubt XBX chip was cheaper then XBONE on 28nm (110$).

    XBS chip was 99.5$ for 240mm² die on 16nm, so probably additional ~20$ for XBX.

    Therefore while 1.5-2x price of fab does hold, rest of costs stay similar, you are right.

    That would make 380-400mm² chip somewhere between 150-200$ I think.
     
    #8271 AbsoluteBeginner, Mar 7, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2020
    PSman1700 likes this.
  12. McHuj

    Veteran Regular Subscriber

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2005
    Messages:
    1,551
    Likes Received:
    735
    Location:
    Texas
    That's probably part of the reason that they are going with only a rumored 16GB of RAM to offset those costs.
     
    PSman1700 likes this.
  13. AbsoluteBeginner

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2019
    Messages:
    764
    Likes Received:
    977
    Even that will come very expensive (especially for if 16+ Gbps RAM is used).

    These are prices from Micron last year

    Screenshot_20200307-143718__01.jpg
    This would make 16GB of GDDR6 14Gbps RAM - $176 (Jeez...)

    I guess bulk buying and long contracts can slash that at least in low 100s, but for 16-18Gbps chips its another step up.
     
  14. PSman1700

    Veteran Newcomer

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2019
    Messages:
    2,344
    Likes Received:
    725
    16gb gddr6 wouldnt be too bad anyway?
     
  15. anexanhume

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Messages:
    1,917
    Likes Received:
    1,253
    If XSX does indeed have a 320-bit bus, with GDDR6 known to be 10-15% higher cost now that it is mature, RAM cost should be relatively flat versus the X1X. Add in another cost delta for SSD over HDD, and MS is probably eating $50-80 on top of the launch X1X cost.

    I feel that’s in line with Zhuge’s numbers.

     
    #8275 anexanhume, Mar 7, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2020
    disco_ likes this.
  16. BRiT

    BRiT Verified (╯°□°)╯
    Moderator Legend Alpha

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    13,072
    Location:
    Cleveland
    I wouldnt think so, even if we only had 150 M/s hard drives, but we have over 3.5 G/s ssds.

    Or were you questioning slower speed ram vs faster speed ram?
     
    PSman1700 likes this.
  17. Karmaprof

    Newcomer

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2019
    Messages:
    88
    Likes Received:
    55
    It is not enough , you cannot stream everything from SSD , you need alot Renderingdata etc. permanent in the Memory. And i'm wondering about the Rumors that PS5 and Scarlett has only a 256/320 Bit Bus the Xbox one X has a 384 Bit bus for a slower Cpu/Gpu Setup compare to nextgen with a Zen2/RDNA2 Combo with lot more computal Power. 1,3 Tflops vs 12 Tflops , this need alot Bandwidth more, or they think VRS can solve this??

    GDDR6 is a high Latency Memory Type not ideal for all Computing Operations.
     
  18. BRiT

    BRiT Verified (╯°□°)╯
    Moderator Legend Alpha

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    13,072
    Location:
    Cleveland
    I strongly disagree. Your base constantly in use static memory will not be that large.
     
  19. AbsoluteBeginner

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2019
    Messages:
    764
    Likes Received:
    977
    From Micron's slide, price per GB 14Gbps v 6Gbps is 71% higher for GDDR6.

    12GB of GDDR5 - 81$ (2019)
    16GB of GDDR6 - 187$ (2019)
    20GB of GDDR6 - 233$ (2019)

    As per Guru3d, these are prices for 2k chips. Big players (Nvidia/AMD) can expect 20-40% discount.

    If MS goes with 20GB (and especially if they go with 16Gbps), I dont think prices will be flat at all.

    Also, if Sony goes with 16GB of 18Gbps RAM and MS goes with 20GB of 14-16Gbps, costs will probably be the same if not higher for Sony.
     
    PSman1700 and BRiT like this.
  20. anexanhume

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Messages:
    1,917
    Likes Received:
    1,253
    Which is why contracts are important. I wouldn’t trust a publicly advertised number. The site I referenced is very well sourced on the manufacturing side, so I believe their numbers for manufacturing cost deltas. Everything on top of that is demand/supply dynamics and the vendor setting their margins, but manufacturing costs is ground truth from which prices would perturbate.

    Sony paid $88 in 2013 for 16 GDDR5 chips according to IIHS. If your numbers were correct, price per chip would have gone up 4x due to halving of the chips and near doubling of the cost per chip. That doesn’t make sense based on how much NAND has dropped in that timeline and their shared manufacturing nodes.

    You have to have a point of concession somewhere in your numbers. Using X1X as a baseline, there's not room for the SoC to be $100 more expensive, the RAM price to grow, and the SSD to grow over the HDD. The XSX BOM is probably in the realm of $50-80 more at most. Divide those beans up how you choose.
     
    #8280 anexanhume, Mar 7, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2020
    disco_ likes this.
Loading...
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Beyond3D has been around for over a decade and prides itself on being the best place on the web for in-depth, technically-driven discussion and analysis of 3D graphics hardware. If you love pixels and transistors, you've come to the right place!

    Beyond3D is proudly published by GPU Tools Ltd.
Loading...