Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by BRiT, Jun 9, 2019.

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  1. AbsoluteBeginner

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    This is a last post I will leave on insiders not posting actual specs.

    Jason's after his "aim higher then 10.7TF Staida comment" resulted in new thread created on Resetera.

    So, Jason doesn't know. He simply said - I don't know how many TF there will be. Is 9.2TF RDNA2 with RT/VRS and gobbs of RAM better then 2080? I dunno, lets wait and see, but lets not act like Jason put written specs out there and said "Here they are". He never said exact specs. And this quote...

    ...tells you that not even many devs know exactly what they are working with. I don't doubt it, I think anyone who believes devs will get exact numbers 2 years in advance like back in 2003 are kidding themselves. There is no point in it, not with todays engines and console architectures.

    So again, Jason does.not.know. Anyone quoting his ">10.7TF Stadia" quote should provide his following posts as well, because his "2080" comment that he gave half a year after these still point at him not knowing specs.
     
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  2. N2O

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    Now i see it, Stadia's spec actually looks decent, too bad it's cloud only.
    Anyway, Radeon Pro SSG/Radeon VII/Vega 64 all >10.7TF
     
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  3. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    Well the biggest difference is someone writing a published piece and someone writing a forum post.
    One is about taking the vanity for having information and the other is giving it to a site to publish on your behalf.
    I think those are some major differences as to why I would believe journalists and not just forum posters.

    in the end you are right. It’s just a matter of what you want to believe. But in my experience, leaks that are true tend converge in nature. They are also backed by other information.

    I just haven’t seen a good case of convergence yet for PS5.
     
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  4. AbsoluteBeginner

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    Stadia specs are like crypto project. Nice on paper, terrible in practice.

    1542065723951.jpg
     
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  5. anexanhume

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    Klee had the background to suggest he could have the connections he was claiming. The tone of his posts was of genuine enthusiasm and being careful not to overstate or over promise what info he would provide. It was a completely different tone than that of those who are not taken seriously. He was genuinely ecstatic about the promises of Stadia despite the tone of the thread being very negative towards it.

    And yes, truth does tend to converge, but how late did we think PS4 would have steamroller or only 2/4GB of RAM?
     
  6. BRiT

    BRiT (>• •)>⌐■-■ (⌐■-■)
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    So what you're saying is that things can and have changed very late, so we shouldn't trust anything until it's officially unveiled directly by Sony.
     
  7. anexanhume

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    I would hope all concede that. Nothing would surprise me for PS5 between 8-13TF.
     
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  8. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    And that’s sort of my thing about PS5 leaks. You’re a smart guy, you’ve been following closely. Among this forum When it comes to PS5 technical stuff Ive put you high on the list for people who know the most. And yet your answer is that you would not be surprised to see PS5 between 8-13TF.

    despite all your knowledge, your understanding of leaks, your reading the insider stuff everywhere, your range is basically the whole population of possible numbers. And you said 8 as your lower end << and for obvious reasons this is a significant lower bound.

    I think your answer is proof of a complete lack of convergence for PS5 information. Which is why I think at this point in time; it’s nearly random dumb luck to pick the horse they will win this.

    if I were to do an interesting experiment I would do a blind test.
    I would have everyone PM me 2 numbers
    1) what your think with all your knowledge the PS5 TF value is
    2) what you think will be the most picked TF number for question (1)


    And I think that would be an interesting result to talk about
     
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  9. Silent_Buddha

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    You'll get no numbers from me, copper. Nyah, nyah.

    I don't speculate because I don't care enough. The consoles will be whatever they will be. Heck I was skeptical of either console being 9 TF prior to MS announcing 2x XBO-X. I only believed it was true after seeing the case they were using for the XBSX. And I'm one of the very few people on this forum that thought this generation might have SSDs as their main storage pool a few years back! :D

    If Sony had shown a picture of the PS5 like MS did with the XBSX, then I might be willing to speculate. As it is, I consider all the leaks from insiders and even GitHub as erroneous or pure guesswork or trying to paint a picture with too little information.

    Regards,
    SB
     
  10. Proelite

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    Raise your hand if you worked / working as a silicon engineer or a closely related career.
     
  11. anexanhume

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    You’ve seen the XSX box, so what about the story from Bloomberg about an elaborate cooling system? ;)
     
  12. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    I was a expert as a kid...

    [​IMG]
     
  13. 3dilettante

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    CPUs have cache hierarchies that amplify bandwidth. Zen2's L1 can handle 2 32 byte reads and a store per cycle (may be some limitations on the sustained write rate, not sure). The FPU is wide enough to generate that traffic on its own in a peak scenario.
    The L1 to L2 is 32 bytes in both directions, and the L2 to L3 has 32 bytes in both directions (the L3 theoretically able to absorb the traffic of its 4 cores).
    The CCX to the data fabric/memory is 32 bytes in both directions per cycle, so the limit may be in the fabric's clock or the limits of the memory controller.
    The cores themselves can very readily exceed the CCX's ability to generate traffic, but that's why they have such expansive caches. For non-streaming loads the CPUs can get by rather well. Something with streaming stores or very linear access patterns that have limited reuse would be where the bandwidth might come up as an issue.
    .

    But does 3 SEs seem right, since that's not a number AMD's GPUs have used? It's not a number that can be as easily balanced in terms of screen tiling, for example.

    Is there a full quote on that? There are instances where RDNA can be briefly pushed about that high, so did AMD plant its flag on multi-GHz operation on a sustained or base-clock level, or could the consoles be wavering on their desire for consistent performance?

    There's that jump in the hex values that seems odd, especially since the jump for some reason occurred on the same chip/platform.
    I'm not able to give a good reason why that should happen, not since we last discussed this point. There is the fact that the web page that tracks PCI IDs for AMD's devices happened to have the next free ID at 13E9, but that doesn't seem like a well-grounded justification.

    I wonder if Navi was subject to that testing method. For one thing, I'm sure that there's some history of software-based validation/verification of upcoming silicon. I think I recall some time ago that chip makers like Intel would scrounge for free cycles on many of their internal systems to get the work units processed. Perhaps with the advent of the more dense cloud systems there's less need for that in particular?
    On the topic of Navi's validation, there are some things that seemed like notable misses. While errata are unavoidable, something like a whole memory addressing mode malfunctioning seems like it should have been caught.

    On the topic of steppings, a high count like that can also require careful attention to the supposed timeline. On prior nodes, several months to a full quarter were possibilities for a base layer bug revision, after including testing, fast-tracked design changes, validation, masks, and the fabbing of the next revision. 7nm (non-EUV) isn't an improvement.
    https://semiengineering.com/battling-fab-cycle-times/
    Something like E0, if the letter means a base-layer spin at a minimum, speaks to possibly a full year in manufacturing--assuming that all you were doing was tossing the revision in favor of the next stepping the instant it exited the fab (and there were no *1+, steppings). That's not taking into account that TSMC's lead times due to there being other customers getting wafer starts are long.
    When is the assumed arrival date for Oberon A0 that supposedly surfaced in spring-summer 2019, and the claimed E0 occurred when?

    It seems quite unusual to hit E0 in pre-production. It's not considered a good sign to have that many revisions, and if it were because of clocks it reinforces the expectation that steppings are not a good way to push clocks.

    I'm not sure about it happening strictly on the fly, but we already have precedent for activations occurring on mode switches--as is done with the PS4 Pro's various modes. Something along those lines, or the initial enumeration of resources and active CU mask setting that occurs after a GPU reset, would only need to happen at specific points in time.
    As far as SE counts go, the PS4 Pro was architecturally predisposed to needing more SEs since the original PS4's 20 CUs wouldn't have sustained a doubling for the Pro without additional SEs. Both Sony and Microsoft skipped over any 3 SE solutions, however.


    Textures?
    It's a next-gen console, not a miracle worker.
     
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  14. Jay

    Jay
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    Always wanted that one, ended up with the 20 in 1 or something like that :lol:
     
  15. BRiT

    BRiT (>• •)>⌐■-■ (⌐■-■)
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    If that qualifies, then so was I. :lol:
     
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  16. AzBat

    AzBat Agent of the Bat
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    I got the 160 in 1. I think it's still in storage somewhere.

    Tommy McClain
     
  17. anexanhume

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    Time to bust out my wire-wrapped 8088 SBC and show you all.

    Alas, I’m no silicon engineer. I just get mad at them for not following their specs.
     
  18. BRiT

    BRiT (>• •)>⌐■-■ (⌐■-■)
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    130-in-1


    150-in-1


    200-in-1
     
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  19. AzBat

    AzBat Agent of the Bat
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    [​IMG]
     
  20. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    When we saw the actual air intake on the xbsx I became very skeptical of the 12TF figure, and I was also skeptical of the 9.2TF@2ghz for sony. So I thought maybe we'd get 10TF and 7.5TF respectively, unless something magical happens with 7nm+ or rdna2.

    Now with rdna2 being both higher clock and higher perf/watt, it explains both.

    The xbsx box is probably closer to 200W, and the form factor was not as necessary as we thought. It's exactly as they said, they designed it to be on a table or besides the TV.

    If PS5 is 36CU and really pushing the clock, they will need a relatively expensive heat spreader and other clever tricks, but it wouldn't be a large nor high wattage console as a whole. The power density would be high and that's a much more difficult problem to solve than just a larger chip with proportionally more heat.

    Interestingly, those who said 12TF was resonable for xbsx before learning about rdna2 big improvement in perf/watt, have to admit that 14TF or 15TF is now reasonable on rdna2 to remain consistent.
     
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