Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

Status
Not open for further replies.
No chance they would put hdd in Lockhart.
dunno how they are going to offer good value for a console with massive Nand, M.2 or Nvme storage. I just don't see it and I wonder which is going to be the final price of the full-fledged PS5 and Xbox Series X.
 
Imo we should investigate why PS4 can be sold very well at $399 while previous data showed $299 was most.
Because that $300 was an old price that didn't account for inflation. PS4 was about the median price of a console when normalised to 2013 dollars - it wasn't expensive.

consolechart1-640x360.png


The most important reason for less sales of PS3 was the lack of big games at launch.
In your opinion. ;) First-year economics tells us price as a significant factor.

If PS4 can be sold at a lot at $399 what is the highest price acceptable?
$399. ;) That's the list price. You then add a game and second controller, you're asking $500 from new owners. And you're key selling points, why they'll pay over $500 for a new console, is because it can load a current-gen game instantly and play it at 60 fps. You really think that's going to get PS4 owners lining up to get this thing? At $500, it'd need some incredible must-have system-selling titles. TLoU2 and Dreams ports aren't going to be that.
 
Lol you really are bothered about that odd E0 chip. It has to be some kind of translation error from Komachi. I can't exist at all, it's a C, not a E ! :LOL:

Maybe you could ask yourself some interesting questions instead of doubting the source ? if it's the fifth chip, why didn't they call it C0 ? Why the odd E letter instead of C ? Either there are many others unknown previous revisions (how did Komachi miss them ?)... or they chose E after B because the letter 'E' means something. Maybe.
I think you either have trouble connecting the dots or you are unwilling to. Look at Komachis spreadsheet and think for a moment
 
Ok so now that we've established that 30% doesn't mean anything...
You can measure things in different ways. Is the difference between 10 dBa and 20 dBa a lot, or a little? 20 dBa is twice as much, so numerically it's a lot. When perceived in a quiet room, 20 dBa is more audible. Against the backdrop of normal everyday noise, both are silent.

A difference of 50% between 2 minutes loading and 3 minutes loading is a lot. A difference of 50% between 1 second loading and 1.5 seconds loading isn't (how many people here are arguing 50% is a lot for GPUs but not a lot for short load times? ;) )

If what's on screen can't be perceived as much different, 30% difference in graphics isn't a lot for those who perceive it.

As ever, people get hung up on numbers. Numbers don't intrinsically mean much - they're just one way to talk about the world.
 
Because that $300 was an old price that didn't account for inflation. PS4 was about the median price of a console when normalised to 2013 dollars - it wasn't expensive.

consolechart1-640x360.png


In your opinion. ;) First-year economics tells us price as a significant factor.

$399. ;) That's the list price. You then add a game and second controller, you're asking $500 from new owners. And you're key selling points, why they'll pay over $500 for a new console, is because it can load a current-gen game instantly and play it at 60 fps. You really think that's going to get PS4 owners lining up to get this thing? At $500, it'd need some incredible must-have system-selling titles. TLoU2 and Dreams ports aren't going to be that.
If considering the price of PS1, PS2 and PS4 normailzed to 2020 dollars, the highest price for very good transition should be somewhere between $449~499. Games in launch windows are the most important.

I also speculate more discount in US ($499 with COD or $399 for the first 6 months since competition is stronger) while $499 is good in all countries.
 
I know Klee a little better and for example he shows me private message of insults he received it could not bear it and I can uderstand why he decided to go from the site. I have seen some racist comment because he is black and it is a shame been black myself. He was much more credible than other insider out of Jason Schreier, the mod Mat with working in videogames industry or Andrew Reiner. He gaves his real identity. All this people say the two consoles are very similar in terms of power but they did not say which one is more powerful out of Reiner but it was in June and things change.

Same for Andrew Reiner he would have leak more things if he did not receive insult. After things change and maybe his informations are outdated like Klee .

And many cowards for not being ban use off site insult. This is shameful this is fucking piece of plastic you paid of if at least it was free.
He was often misquoted too, constantly having to reset the conversation to what he actually said versus an interpretation and the inevitable reaction again and again got old. I just don't think the forum had enough maturity to digest and discuss rationally and he grew tired of it.
 
IMO anything that references 9.2 TFLOPS is merrily just someones opinion on the rumor of the day.

As to Sony going with a custom RT IP block, that rumor 's been out there since the beginning and nothing I've seen has shot it down. So....

An interesting reply from a Lisa Su interview this week:

Now maybe it her being coy but if they were using AMD's RT solution she would know more than what they say they are using. Again, maybe it's her being coy but it does leave open the possibility of a non-AMD RT solution.
This is little late to the party, but I'm pretty sure the language choices were based on the fact that AMD doesn't tell anyone anything about their partners chips which the partner hasn't said before. Thus, she says "partners have said they are using ray tracing" because that's what they've said, they haven't released the chip (specs) so Su can't comment in more detail no matter what she knows.
 
If considering the price of PS1, PS2 and PS4 normailzed to 2020 dollars, the highest price for very good transition should be somewhere between $449~499. Games in launch windows are the most important.
Even if you argue a $500 PS5 is the normal price, that won't get a faster adoption than previous which is what Sony are aiming for. What's going to make more people want a PS5 than they did a PS2 or a PS4?
 
Crazy speculation, so hang on ... if Microsoft has multiple SKU Xbox Series Console then Lockhart will not play a part in it. The multi-sku will come from binning of Anaconda (WGP/SE/CU counts and Speed).

I don't know if it's a binned Anaconda chip or a sperate chip but Lockhart is actually the most intruginig to me. I mean it sounds like you are essentially getting the same system minus the GPU grunt. I think it could be a sleeper hit if the price is differentiated enough.
 
I don't know if it's a binned Anaconda chip or a sperate chip but Lockhart is actually the most intruginig to me. I mean it sounds like you are essentially getting the same system minus the GPU grunt. I think it could be a sleeper hit if the price is differentiated enough.

There's just so little known about Lockhart that it feels like everyone is way off base with their current thinking its for consumer consoles. *shrug*
 
And if MS went with 2SKU strat, it automatically gives them advantage over Sony when it comes to chip manufacturing. With big SKU they can go 400mm2+, knowing most people will go for smaller SKU which has ~200mm2 die. Therefore, they will have enough of both for stock, and will be able to parade best performance AND best price.

If Sony goes for 1 SKU, as it looks like, then they will have to make concious decision over die size as change from 320mm2 to 400mm2 can result in much higher price, low yields and not enough stock.

Problem for Sony is, they probably didn't know about dual SKU until it was far too late to react. Chip design is multi year and multi million process, especially at 7nm. You can't just turn switch on/off and get new chip in few months time.
I doubt much of Sony's hardware planning is a reaction to MS or vice versa. The area both companies need to watch and plan for is services like game pass. That sort of incremental income in exchange for a steady stream of IP will affect the bottom line a lot more this coming generation.
 
There's just so little known about Lockhart that it feels like everyone is way off base with their current thinking its for consumer consoles. *shrug*
I think, based on what we have from Github leak (Sparkman) and what AquariusZi said in October it likely is small ~200mm2 chip.

https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/PC_Shopping/M.1570476662.A.7A0.html

(Sparkman) The case layout that has only recently been evaluated is very similar to Renoir, but Slightly fatter and not a FPx pin for laptops, but a BLx common to semi-custom SoCs
 
Even if you argue a $500 PS5 is the normal price, that won't get a faster adoption than previous which is what Sony are aiming for. What's going to make more people want a PS5 than they did a PS2 or a PS4?
Imo games in launch window are the most important.

PS5 may have better 1st-party titles. Besides PS5 has PS4 BC (Or even PS4 Pro Boost) while PS4 has no BC function. And I have to say I only predict 15~30% faster transition than that of PS4 which will be crazily good.
 
If we look at the mid-gen sales ratio. The vast majority of the current 100+ million PS gamers, which Sony wants to keep, are mostly the same ones who didn't think 2.3x more power was worth $100 more for the Pro. I don't see how 30% more teraflops could have a significant impact even if they end up the same price. There are much more important factors at play.

An accessible price or a price drop is important as soon as they had the launch peak from the early adopters who will buy it no matter what.
 
The next Xbox will be most powerful Xbox in history just as the next PlayStation will be the most powerful Playstation ever. Only forum warriors argue how those two statements relate to each other and often still manage to screw up the analysis.
 
Can we get back to speculating more on the consoles and less on various people?
Just let me say one more thing since this is baseless thread...

Below is a reason why I refrain from believing in vague "insiders" who repeatedly avoid to give any concrete info about what they allegedly know.

Kleegamefan's posts threadmarked on Resetera

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ps...9-for-flops-sake.162235/page-94#post-27945143

Yeah. PlayStation 5 was originally planned to come out next month. The software engineering needed to get BC 101% right was not progressing as fast as they needed.

It is my belief that this is one of (but not the only) reasons Sony delayed PlayStation 5 to holiday 2020.

They made this change in 2017.
How would he know this? He started of as saying his old friend from one studio showed him internal next gen video, a vertical slice that is from USB. So going from that, to knowing why and when was PS5 cancelled is alot. Note he is not talking from position of guessing, he is saying "PS5 was originally planned to come out next month".

BTW, this rumor about BC being the culprit of PS5 development has been there for entire 2019...

*wise fwom your gwave*


OMG where are all the Xbox insider evangelicals to clarify all this


NO it’s not GCN flops


YES it’s Navi flops


Xbox Series X performance is actually slightly ABOVE 12(Navi) TFs


Xbox (Anaconda) Series X eats monsters (Scorpio) for breakfast


The GCN architecture is HISTORY, y’all. MS/Sony only talk in terms of RDNA now


Ay Carumba


Now I’m actually leaving for sure.


I will return to talk about Next gen again after the PS5 reveal.


Buh-bye

"Where are MS insider evangelicals to clarify this?". You mean, where are guys that reported it 5 days before you posted this and XSX was announced at TGA?

Possible Xbox Series X GPU Compute Unit Count? (Retail? Dev Kit?)


Post made in response to GPU clock speed calculation

1475MHz x 4096 stream processors x 2 = 12.083 teraflops



anexanhume said:
64 CUs is 12.083TF.

Kleegamefan said:
Bingo

Bingo to what? 64CUs 12.083TF? Started of as "I have seen NG game it looks amazingballs" to bingo to "64CUs at 1475MHz"? And even that is wrong, lol.

There are many more posts that are wtf inducing and more often then not, they don't really say much at all. Most specific prediction he had was "PS meeting is in February".

As for where he got that both consoles are 10+ TF?

So here is the deal.


I specifically asked about general Teraflop performance about Scarlett and PS5.


He said " from what I know, both final console should have double digits TF."


.....keep in mind, this conversation was in late June, after AMD already outlined 5700 and 5700xt were shipping July 7th.....


So then I specifically said."well that would mean greater performance than the new AMD Navi GPUs right?"


....he nodded his head yes!


Now don't shoot me.....I'm just the relay guy... I am not sure how they can ship that much power in a console form factor/price...


Don't @me

So, even in best case where developer actually told him TF number, it was told " from what I know, both final console should have double digits TF." Thats obviously assuming he didn't make things up, but reading all threadmarked posts he had there I have to say, it really does sound far fetched. To hanging out with his old friend from studio XYZ to knowing when and why Sony cancelled 2019, and how many CUs are in XSX (and that was wrong) etc.

And now the most important thing to ask yourself is, if Klee confirmed 64CUs at 1475MHz, and he said in December he has specs, obviously he knows it from specs he has, right? But, Github has Arden at 56CU and 320bit bus, so it cannot possibly be that right? So the question is, why is he lying? Or is Github outdated for 320bit 56CU Xbox console as well?

I see alot of fluff in his posts, and when he tries to be specific, he makes mistake.
 
Last edited:
If we look at the mid-gen sales ratio. The vast majority of the current 100+ million PS gamers, which Sony wants to keep, are mostly the same ones who didn't think 2.3x more power was worth $100 more for the Pro. I don't see how 30% more teraflops could have a significant impact even if they end up the same price. There are much more important factors at play.

An accessible price or a price drop is important as soon as they had the launch peak from the early adopters who will buy it no matter what.


It's hard to read into the mid-gen sales though. I think most people are aware of the difference between these mid-gen consoles and a new generation and were relucatant to spend money anyway. My take is there are probably a chunk of 360 owners from last gen(particularly in North America) that migrated to PS4 this gen that could possibly switch back once decision time comes.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top