Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]
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And changing any clock means you stray away from your calculated cost/performance analysis. Changing the clock would be based instead on better than expected process results.
I really expect 16GB to 20GB for both, but memory amount is the one thing that has been changed twice in the past based on leaks, if one have 32GB and the other have 16GB, developers would eventually hint with subtlety and decorum.... "dude, if you have 16GB you're done!"... And they would want to be close enough not to have a clearly visible texture/asset detail gap on third parties. The nvme speed is putting a big question mark on real memory needs though.
I bet that NV was 'looking at it for a while' before going into production with their RT. It is still AMD's first commercial RT product.
Story time:
Let's say MS went to devs in late 2017 and early 2018 and shared these target specs.
CPU: 4x over XB1X
RAM: 1.5 over XB1X
GPU: 2x over XB1X
SSD: 40x over XB1X
I don't think we should doubt this, as it's the same multipliers that MS is still using to this day.
Now if you're a developer or insider and saw these targets prior to 2019, what's your only interpretation? These are clearly perf multipliers. The GPU is 12TF GCN. No one outside of people at AMD, or a few at MS/Sony might be privy to the massive leap in architecture that Navi was. Even AdoredTv, an AMD insider with a great track record, was down on Navi.
Let's say MS went to devs in late 2017 and early 2018 and shared these target specs.
CPU: 4x over XB1X
RAM: 1.5 over XB1X
GPU: 2x over XB1X
SSD: 40x over XB1X
I don't think we should doubt this, as it's the same multipliers that MS is still using to this day.
Now if you're a developer or insider and saw these targets prior to 2019, what's your only interpretation? These are clearly perf multipliers. The GPU is 12TF GCN. No one outside of people at AMD, or a few at MS/Sony might be privy to the massive leap in architecture that Navi was. Even AdoredTv, an AMD insider with a great track record, was down on Navi.
Sony maybe not, but i can bet Microsoft 100% will, it's not like that's first time for them, they boosted both CPU and GPU clock before back at August 2013, they definitely not a fan for taking an L.
You can make the data say anything. It happens all the time. We can write any story we want if you spend enough time manipulating data.
"Information is a quantity that reduces uncertainty about something" 1
You will always have uncertainty especially this early in the discussion of leaks and what not. It is fully to try to obtain certainty with so little information.
There is less uncertainty with the regression tests.
This is more uncertainty with insiders dolling out vague performance differentials.
In a naive probability situation each possibility has 50% chance (there are only 2 possibilities - xsx is stronger than ps5, xsx is weaker than ps5).
But the data that we are now aware of, one piece of information provides less uncertainty than the other. So in this situation, with the slightest advantage (some would give much more), but you'd give xbox at least a 51/49 chance of being stronger than PS5. Odds will change as better information is released. The reality is probably more in favour of xbox as of this moment.
It's a much simpler way of looking at it, then trying to graph an incomplete story.
The xbox was not designed in time, they were behind schedule. They had an external power supply (they wanted it internal) and they over compensated with a massive cooler (RROD fears) At launch. Because of the yield and quality of the chips and the room due to over cooling, they were able to up the chip higher.
The One S revision they were able to complete the product as they wanted it. There was no last minute upclock on the One S.
This is not something that I came up with in 5 minutes.
It'll took me a year to write my story.
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Because One S already boosted the clock again when they design the console.
Also do you think XSX not coming with massive cooler again with that trump tower design?
AbsoluteBeginner
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No, I said I doubt people will share it just like that. I know I won't. It was up long enough for everyone to go there, search for it, download a repo and read it.
It was and can be fact checked, that is why Digital Foundry checked it and made an article about it. The fact that some of you didn't should not be an issue.
Yeah, but what makes this like poker or dice is: It depends the most on how important AMD (or here their customers) rate the RT feature, how much chip area they think it is worth.
Anything can happen here, unlike established features like raster or compute, where solid expectations exist, making surprises unlikely.
Also, no leaks, no insiders that claim to know.
So any expectation is complete guessing, even if realistic.
At least, some secrets left...
Anything can happen here, unlike established features like raster or compute, where solid expectations exist, making surprises unlikely.
Also, no leaks, no insiders that claim to know.
So any expectation is complete guessing, even if realistic.
At least, some secrets left...
D
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He says the devkits being distributed in December are close to the final hardware being released 11 months later.
The github leak that no one can actually see but everyone believes it exists (which I will henceforth refer to as Gospel) is from June.
So the rules of product development that apply to the SeX devkits of December do not apply to Gospel, because Gospel is from June.
You can't just jump from "If it's being distributed to devs in December then it must be final" to "If it's being internally tested in June then it must be final". Do you know what happens in 6 whole months in tech development? A shit ton.
You seem convinced that the arrows in that figure are direct and easy upgrade paths. They're not.
The only actual direct upgrade path in that figure is the N7P -> N6 one, because TSMC made it so customers could use the same design rules. It's all the other "arrows" in that figure that require a substantial redesign:
anandtech said:
TSMC is claiming that most N7 chips that are planned to be produced across several years are expected to transition to N6. That will most probably include console chips on N7 where the 18% gain in density and improved yields will directly translate in short-term cost savings. Otherwise TSMC's CEO wouldn't be so confident that N6 is set to be a very popular node.
That figure shows no "ports" (arrows) from N6 to other nodes because the ports would be the same from N7.
Yeah this is bullshit.
Why wouldn't people share it? Is it copyright protected? If it was so freely read and distributed by so many people, it wouldn't be so hard to find.
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You're not the only one on this forum with information, you're just the only one willing to share itThis is not something that I came up with in 5 minutes.
It'll took me a year to write my story.
I'm not saying there couldn't be changes. I just wanted to share approximate timelines so that you could work backwards from there.
Yes, I do agree there could have been some changes from June to Dec.
You both have MS information right?
I was thinking it should be actually much more than that. Ok the 1X's higher 2.3ghz clock muddles things a tad, but just compare it to base Ps4 which as the LCD is the real base of current gen. Clock: probably ~3.6 vs 1.6, >2x. Threads: 16 vs 8, 2X. So we're at >4X so far. IPC: lord knows, but an absolutely massive amount. Double? Triple?.
The CPU's are going to be along with the SSD's such a quantum leap. You can do a similar thing for the GPU vs One. One: 1.3 TF. Series X>12TF. Almost 10 X, but you add in architecture gains and you're maybe 15X? That's absolutely the grand canyon.
Of course the RAM is an outlier the other way, maybe 2X.
All this cut and thrust makes me think of the phrase
"Do not feed the trolls"
Which in turn makes me ask
"Do people pay the trolls?"
Now that's is not to say these are trolls, but they are an influencers on very large gaming sites which seem to steer more mainstream publications.
Chump change spent here with makes bigger waves than pretty much any other investment per $ I would think.
The bonus being it's so early if it's wrong everyone walks away happy, good old "things change" and plausible deniability.
Whatever happened to the rumours Sony paid for most of Navi? It almost reads like a campaign of misinformation, the narrative is now getting more specific, but the "leaks" have all be totally vague but assuring what is basically the Sony congregation that PS5 is superior.
I am drunk and this is baseless so just tossing this out there.
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