Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

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But why would he have a melt down? He's one of those really neutral type if you read through his history.


Reasons: MADDs - Mutually Assured Destructive Discussions.

He's finally become self-aware of the community. He wants a civilized discussion but that's impossible when you have such large numbers of company fan camps. In his own words: https://www.resetera.com/threads/ne...-see-staff-post.159131/page-355#post-27798429

That's all we should talk about the status of Era on B3D.
 
gcn version was a dedicated dsp and it didn’t have the 3D audio capability. True Audio Next is strictly gpgpu and has no backwards compatibility with gcn True Audio. That’s interesting with respect to BC on PS5. I wonder if they’ll include the dsp just to make it easier. I think it’s pretty small.

The dedicated DSP was abandoned long before RDNA. True Audio Next has been supported by GCN since Polaris.
 
That was never the goal of any of the Xbox until, arguably Xbox One. You seem to be equating abstraction with compatibility but abstraction is designed to solve a different set of problems. As for abtracting code to run on different processors, nobody does this. Apple's iOS platform comes closest but this relies to recompilation of code as it's downloaded and/or updated by the App Store.

The difference in execution is tangible. Microsoft used attraction APIs and found an affordable way to run previous generation Xbox games on latter hardware which not only ran better, but looked better. Sony have used close-to-the-metal APIs which which limited their hardware choices and when they did deliver a limited form of B/C, the 'improvements' were limited to screen filters.

Another way to put it is that up until X360, MS has always (well at least since Windows 3.0... 2.0 and 1.0 were a bit rough) look both forwards and backwards WRT compatibility. It's a cornerstone of their approach to making computing accessible to the masses, small businesses and corporations.

IMO, even the original Xbox was based on this. It was basically just one step away from being just a standard Windows box and thus easy (for them) to maintain compatibility going forwards. However, after they learned all about the various pitfalls involved in competing in the console space WRT hardware, they changed course with X360. Their mistake with the OG Xbox was not knowing that reducing the cost to manufacture of the console over the course of a generation is arguably far more important than the cost of bringing the console to market.

So basically,
  • They determined that they couldn't continue with x86, Intel was certainly not interested in reducing any costs related to their CPUs, especially at that point in time.
  • They found that NV was transitioning from the GPU maker that made cheap affordable 3D accelerators in order to establish themselves into a company that was far more interested in maximizing operating margins. IE - they also weren't interested in reducing costs related to their GPUs.
  • AMD wasn't viewed as viable (low production capacity compared to Intel) and likely weren't interested in low margin parts at the time (this was when their Athlon 64 X2 architecture was coming into the picture, something that would outperform Intels chips for a time). That low manufacturing compacity hurt their ability to compete with Intel even when they had a compelling architecture. By the time they got their new Fab online, Intel were competitive once again...
So, they needed to find a new GPU and CPU partner. ATi was already at least somewhat familiar with the console business and it's associated costs having acquired ArtX back in 2000. IP from that also being used to get them competitive in the GPU space again (R300 and forwards). So that worked well.

Then the problem of getting a CPU. Well, at this point x86 was out of the question as MS needed a partner who was willing to pass on reduced manufacturing costs to them. Something neither Intel nor AMD were interested in at the time. So, in comes IBM who needed more partners.

At this point, WRT backwards compatibility, we run into the roadblock of having to make code targeting NV proprietary IP run on ATi hardware. Something NV weren't interested in without large sums of money being involved.

And there we run into the next lesson that MS learned.
  • While the OG Xbox had a Direct X like API, developers could still bypass the API and code directly to the metal (and many of them did just that). That becomes a problem if you are looking at compatibility across different hardware if the features being used are patented.
    • You see this crop up from time to time even on the PC side of things. S3TC, for example.
    • While S3 Graphics is no longer a competitor in the graphics accelerator market, license fees have been levied and collected for the use of S3TC technology until October 2017, for example in game consoles and graphics cards. The wide use of S3TC has led to a de facto requirement for OpenGL drivers to support it, but the patent-encumbered status of S3TC presented a major obstacle to open source implementations,[4] while implementation approaches which tried to avoid the patented parts existed.[5]
      From Wikipedia.
Anyway, because of this we see Microsoft moving to more abstraction in the XBO. Hypervisor, virtual machines, making the API more prevalent, etc.

Then for BC, get around some of the licensing costs associated with NV IP by having games from Xbox run in a virtual machine. They likely still have to pay NV some sort of licensing fee (assuming they couldn't come up with clean code to get around it), but at this point it's at the Virtual machine level and not per title. That also has benefits WRT future compatibility across hardware generations while also allowing developers some freedom to bypass the API.

And now we're back full circle to a machine that is again just a step or two away from being a standard Windows machine. Except now, things are sufficiently abstracted that in theory they could move to any architechture in the future as long as it had hardware components that were fast enough (CPU, GPU, etc.) to emulate a previous console in a virtual machine.

Obviously they'd like to avoid that and stick to x86 + PC GPU derived tech., but with their work in getting Windows on Arm working (currently compatibility focused, but at some point they're likely to start focusing on cross vendor CPU performance) I don't think it's out of the question that at some point in the future an ARM based console is possible for MS.

Regards,
SB
 
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And hope Sony isn't contradicting themselves when the CEO had this to say awhile back.

I really don't see $399/9.2 TF to be aimed at that consumer crowd, $499, 13 TF, HBM, sound more fitting. Unless they backtracked recently?

Looking back at prior Sony CES events and having similar thoughts as the editor quoted below, I believe this upcoming CES event will have PS5 related information. Sony's messaging for this event is drastically different than prior ones. If Sony is going to present something more high-end, then CES would be a good place on doing so.
Sony needs a revival, and the best time to do it is at CES. Typically, the company shows off a mixture of TVs, projectors, headphones and speakers. We see the occasional smartphone and wacky R&D project, but they're never more than a sliver of its showing. There's nothing wrong with this focus, given that personal audio and home-theater represent a large part of its business. But so often these products are iterative, offering minor improvements over the previous year's model. They might be best in class, but Sony needs a bolder, wilder hand at CES to grab headlines and get the public excited again.
 
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PS4Pro - 911 x 64 - 58 GP/s
XBX - 1172 x 32 - 37.5 GP/s
Oberon (rumored) - 2000 x 64 - 128 GP/s
XSX (rumored) - 1700 x 64 - 108.8 GP/s

PS4 Pro Fill rates vs 217.6 GB/s memory bandwidth
@RGBA8 = 911 Mhz * 64 ROPS * 4 bytes = 233 GB/s (bandwidth bound)
@RGBA16F = 911 Mhz * 64 ROPS * 8 bytes = 466 GB/s (bandwidth bound)
@RGBA32F = 911 Mhz * 64 ROPS * 16 bytes = 932 GB/s (bandwidth bound)

Xbox One X fill rates -> vs 326 GB/s memory bandwidth
@RGBA8 = 1172 Mhz * 32 ROPS* 4 bytes = 150 GB/s (ROP bound)
@RGBA16F = 1172 Mhz * 32 ROPS* 8 bytes = 300 GB/s (~ROP bound)
@RGBA32F = 1172 Mhz * 32 ROPS* 16 bytes = 600 GB/s (bandwidth bound)

Using the above theoreticals.
edit:
576GB/s for PS5
720GB/s for XSX

edit 2 using DF recent numbers on possible leaked numbers
448-512 GB/s for PS5
560 GB/s XSX

Oberon fill rates -> vs 448-512 GB/s GB/s
@RGBA8 = 2000 Mhz * 64 ROPS* 4 bytes = 512 GB/s (~ROP/Bandwidth bound)
@RGBA16F = 2000 Mhz * 64 ROPS* 8 bytes = 1024 GB/s (bandwidth bound)
@RGBA32F = 2000 Mhz * 64 ROPS* 16 bytes = 2048 GB/s (bandwidth bound)

XSX fill rates -> vs 560GB/s for XSX
@RGBA8 = 1700 Mhz * 64 ROPS* 4 bytes = 435 GB/s (ROP bound)
@RGBA16F = 1700 Mhz * 64 ROPS* 8 bytes = 870 GB/s (bandwidth bound)
@RGBA32F = 1700 Mhz * 64 ROPS* 16 bytes = 1640 GB/s (bandwidth bound)
 
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And hope Sony isn't contradicting themselves when the CEO had this to say awhile back.

I really don't see $399/9.2 TF to be aimed at that consumer crowd, $499, 13 TF, HBM, sound more fitting. Unless they backtracked recently?
That sounds more than $499.
 
I like meltdowns.

Meltdowns mean surprises.

picard.png
 
PS4 Pro Fill rates vs 217.6 GB/s memory bandwidth
@RGBA8 = 911 Mhz * 64 ROPS * 4 bytes = 233 GB/s (bandwidth bound)
@RGBA16F = 911 Mhz * 64 ROPS * 8 bytes = 466 GB/s (bandwidth bound)
@RGBA32F = 911 Mhz * 64 ROPS * 16 bytes = 932 GB/s (bandwidth bound)

Xbox One X fill rates -> vs 326 GB/s memory bandwidth
@RGBA8 = 1172 Mhz * 32 ROPS* 4 bytes = 150 GB/s (ROP bound)
@RGBA16F = 1172 Mhz * 32 ROPS* 8 bytes = 300 GB/s (~ROP bound)
@RGBA32F = 1172 Mhz * 32 ROPS* 16 bytes = 600 GB/s (bandwidth bound)

Using the above theoreticals.
Oberon
@RGBA8 = 2000 Mhz * 64 ROPS* 4 bytes = 512 GB/s (ROP bound maybe?)
@RGBA16F = 2000 Mhz * 64 ROPS* 8 bytes = 1024 GB/s (bandwidth bound)
@RGBA32F = 2000 Mhz * 64 ROPS* 16 bytes = 2048 GB/s (bandwidth bound)
I hope Oberon has a lot of memory.. lol otherwise it's going to be entirely bandwidth bound

XSX
@RGBA8 = 1700 Mhz * 32 ROPS* 4 bytes = 435 GB/s (ROP bound maybe?)
@RGBA16F = 1700 Mhz * 32 ROPS* 8 bytes = 870 GB/s (ROP bound maybe?)
@RGBA32F = 1700 Mhz * 32 ROPS* 16 bytes = 1640 GB/s (bandwidth bound)

If you have the memory speeds and amount you can work out if it's ROP or bandwidth bound.Some folks here are good with memory that can give you some estimates on likely GDDR6 speeds with 16GB of memory. I'm guessing its likely to be bandwidth bound. Using samsung as my proxy; 16GB memory packages will hit about 768 GB/s.
Are there any reason you think XSX will still only have 32 ROPS?
 
Are there any reason you think XSX will still only have 32 ROPS?
not my numbers. Just using other peoples stuff. I just wanted to showcase that you can't just multiply across ROPs and frequency and get filtrate.

edit: sorry that was a typo from copy and paste. its 64 when I did the calculations.
 
HBM2 is still a thing huh.

I saw how calculated how big 2048 and 4096 bit HBM2 controllers are and noped the f out.

#NeverHBM2
 
I think this is a reason why Sony pushed clocks.
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They were up against the wall with their BC method so 36 Navi CUs clocked very high were always a way to achieve all 3.

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Its pretty much halving X vs Pro difference. Only problem for Sony would be PR (TF war) ....

BC is number one concern for Sony and also not let PS4 behind giving at the same time a "true" next gen feeling (mostly coming from the SSD).... people owning a ps4pro will not hurry to buy a ps5... If ps5 has an adeguate TF/Bandwith ratio can be a really well priced and nice balanced system

So how often do retail units hit their target specs? Did Jason not mention how both of them are trying to surpass 9.7 TF Stadia? I guess Anaconda not only makes it but goes way further and beyond while PS5 falls short by half Teraflop?

Yes, that's why I believe in a bit above 10 TF ps5 (10.2)... just for PR... [emoji41]

Well I don't necessarily think it means PS5 is "hamstrung".

But I think 2 things are fairly true:
1. Having PS4 BC on PS5 was pretty important for them given the large user base of PS4
2. They don't have the same level of resources, experience and expertise as MS when it comes to software compatibility so they probably can't be as flexible.
That is
 
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He wants a civilized discussion but that's impossible when you have such large numbers of company fan camps.
He should join B3D. ;)

And hope Sony isn't contradicting themselves when the CEO had this to say awhile back.
They're already contradicting themselves when they said they wanted PS5 to be the fastest console transition (fastest selling) they've ever had. I think these PR remarks are different for different audiences. This quote of yours is from the WSJ. I haven't access to the article so we don't have the true context, but looking at the intro, I get a feeling Yoshida is talking about the difference between Stadia gamers streaming blurry mess on their laggy phones versus 'hardcore gamers' who want a quality experience. Console gaming is a niche when compared to 'casual', mobile gaming.
 
Games are slightly different now. This gen has been chock full of GaaS titles that would die if next gen triggered with no BC. I think that would be detrimental to their player base considering how much was invested in Destiny.
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going into another launch year with a limited library while The competition is going in with a massive enhanced back catalog that is readily available at a mere $15 a month sounds risky.

Risky ? Suicidal.... [emoji1]

It's a guess based on the PS4 reveal, which happened in February 2013.
I find also strange the ps-plus games for January have not been announced... something is boiling at Sony... ?!? maybe even first days of January...
 
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Oberon has three modes.

Native - 2Ghz - 36 CU
BC1 - 911mhz - 36 CU
BC2 - 800mhz - 18 CU

Maybe also a 1822 mhz as ps4-pro-turbo mode.... Is gonne be really usefull to see ps4-pro 30 fps games magically (with minimal effort) running so smoothly at 60 fps...
 
What's the implications of a console having all CUs enabled for retail? If PS5 were to say be 40 instead of 36. I think that's one quick but potentially expensive way to get perf gain late in the development.
 
What's the implications of a console having all CUs enabled for retail? If PS5 were to say be 40 instead of 36. I think that's one quick but potentially expensive way to get perf gain late in the development.

Depends on the yields I guess. If they are crap, there would be more going into the bin, making the console costlier to manufacture. If yields are better than expected than there is virtually no extra cost.
 
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