Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[Shortbread]

The PS5 SDK looked twice the size of the XSex. That's a big boi.

I phrased that wrong (rushing on my part).

I was implying that the PS5 SDK with its heavily engineered ventilation design (inclusive of size) would seem like an engineering failure if the TF performance can’t match or falls well below a consumer product (XBSX) that has a smaller footprint and more simplified ventilation design. Meaning, if the PS5 SDK is less capable than its rival consumer product, then Sony really needs to question their engineering team’s capabilities.

 

[Betanumerical]

I phrased that wrong (rushing on my part).

I was implying that the PS5 SDK with its heavily engineered ventilation design (inclusive of size) would seem like an engineering failure if the TF performance can’t match or falls well below a consumer product (XBSX) that has a smaller footprint and more simplified ventilation design. Meaning, if the PS5 SDK is less capable than its rival consumer product, then Sony really needs to question their engineering team’s capabilities.

That was exactly my thought when i saw it. The PS5 SDK cooling solution is so over engineered that the console must be quite powerful. I really do not buy the 'stackable' explanation. I don't see Sony choosing a cooling solution based around developers saving a tiny amount of desk space it makes no sense.

 

[Shortbread]

Anyway as we loom close to the PS5 reveal here's my prediction.
Best case scenario: 13.2 RDNA TF, 24 GB GDDR6
Worst case scenario: 10.5 RDNA TF, 16 GB GDDR6
I have a feeling 16 GB of GDDR6 might not have enough bandwidth to feed a 13 TF gpu so it has to be balanced especially with that new CPU sharing it.

Hypothetically, if PS5 is reported to be 13TF by game tech pundits and Sony centric focused sites - before and after its February reveal. Are you guys going to give Sony the same energy and pass if they don't personally state it themselves? Just curious...

Edit: This wasn't directly aimed at you Ultra... I was just piggybacking off your specs.

 

[RobertR1]

RayTracing to me is the most interesting piece here. There’s been no current elegant or efficient implementation of it. I have a 2080ti and have tested it across various games.

while it has promises, it’s actual implementation is just ok. However the budget hit it brings is never worth it and you always get some small piece of it instead of the full stack to due lack of gpu power.

I don’t expect nvidia to just be pure crap at designing a gpu to the point that somehow consoles will be many generations ahead of what Nvidia rtx can produce.

If MS has done something like edram they did for the 360 which gave a huge benefit to AA implementation on consoles and really was next level, I think RT might just end up being fanboy ammo.

 

[JoeJ]

RayTracing to me is the most interesting piece here. There’s been no current elegant or efficient implementation of it. I have a 2080ti and have tested it across various games.

while it has promises, it’s actual implementation is just ok. However the budget hit it brings is never worth it and you always get some small piece of it instead of the full stack to due lack of gpu power.

At this point i realize NV has missed something here, marketing wise: They should have told the people RT can not be expected to be 'fast'.
Likely people do not know RT means doing >50 steps of traversal (or better, call it 'search') per pixel, which is very different from some constant time texture lookups.
Addressing this in marketing videos (beside showing awesome shiny robots) probably would have helped with so many people being disappointed form performance.

Now it could happen people remain disappointed from next gen improvements as well, i guess (talking about Ampere here, but applies to consoles as well.)

 

[Proelite]

Hypothetically, if PS5 is reported to be 13TF by game tech pundits and Sony centric focused sites - before and after its February reveal. Are you guys going to give Sony the same energy and pass if they don't personally state it themselves? Just curious...

Edit: This wasn't directly aimed at you Ultra... I was just piggybacking off your specs.

I would be suspicious of any rumor with 12+ TF navi in dev kits early this year. AMD couldn't do it with their discrete desktop GPUS. You would think they'll release a 12+ TF this year had they had one for early 2019. Such a GPU would have been GCN most likely. Vega 64 or Vega 7.

 

[ultragpu]

Hypothetically, if PS5 is reported to be 13TF by game tech pundits and Sony centric focused sites - before and after its February reveal. Are you guys going to give Sony the same energy and pass if they don't personally state it themselves? Just curious...

Edit: This wasn't directly aimed at you Ultra... I was just piggybacking off your specs.

I wouldn't worry about Sony not disclosing it as enough insiders from the the darkest corners of the interweb would leak us just that by then . But more than likely Sony would disclose the specs just like what they did last time which will be followed by a 1hour DF special with Dictator's face pumped to the 11.
As of now Sony is keeping it rather quiet, which does makes me think one, their specs are actually below 12 TF (Proelite becomes legit for me) so they don't wanna make too much noise, two, they wanna surprise the world by oneupping SEX with a 13 TF monster in a near future tweet, so this is the deep breath before the plunge, three, sticking to the plan as usual for a Feb reveal and simply doesn't care. Like damn, why can't things be more simpler without those contradicting insider scoops.

 

[RDGoodla]

Anyway as we loom close to the PS5 reveal here's my prediction.
Best case scenario: 13.2 RDNA TF, 24 GB GDDR6
Worst case scenario: 10.5 RDNA TF, 16 GB GDDR6
I have a feeling 16 GB of GDDR6 might not have enough bandwidth to feed a 13 TF gpu so it has to be balanced especially with that new CPU sharing it.

1. From Wires article we know PS5 devkits are low speed version in April.

2. We know that Gonzalo was 1GHz, then 1.8GHz, now PS5 is rumored at 2GHz.

That means Sony probably taped out APU several times and each time they try to improve performance. So early devkits is lower speed with low clock or even some CUs disabled.

From those verified insiders PS5 is certainly above 10.7TFlops. It’s very likely that SONY is trying to test some extremely high performance (above target performance, like 14TFflops) since they have V shaped case capable of more heat than other consoles.

 

[ultragpu]

1. From Wires article we know PS5 devkits are low speed version in April.

2. We know that Gonzalo was 1GHz, then 1.8GHz, now PS5 is rumored at 2GHz.

That means Sony probably taped out APU several times and each time they try to improve performance. So early devkits is lower speed with low clock or even some CUs disabled.

From those verified insiders PS5 is certainly above 10.7TFlops. It’s very likely that SONY is trying to test some extremely high performance (above target performance, like 14TFflops) since they have V shaped case capable of more heat than other consoles.

It's an impressive cage, not built I think, for a 10 TF devkit. Built for something a lot stronger, than it. Oh I've heard, a mindless beast makes play it's still a devkit. How desperate is Cerny, to call on such a lost design to defend against Microsoft?

 

[Deleted member 11852]

As I understand it, Apple led the way in that regard with the 2013 model of the Mac Pro. The cylindrical arrangement allowed for a cooling vortex, enabling much more effective cooling.

The 2013 Mac Pro design has serious overheating issues leaving it no way forward to upgrade internals for faster/hotter variants. Apple only led the way in how not to do this.

 

[RobertR1]

From those verified insiders PS5 is certainly above 10.7TFlops. It’s very likely that SONY is trying to test some extremely high performance (above target performance, like 14TFflops) since they have V shaped case capable of more heat than other consoles.

This is a great example of bullshit. Each time the target jumps up due to the power of make believe.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The 2013 Mac Pro design has serious overheating issues leaving it no way forward to upgrade internals for faster/hotter variants. Apple only led the way in how not to do this.

It lacked upgradeability for sure, but the problem with overheating was because Apple went too far towards silence. If you look at heat management for case volume, with very hot, powerful hardware in a tiny, quiet case, it was clearly more effective than conventional cooling. For the pro market, these qualities don't matter, so it's understandable why they went back to big boxes and big fans. For a console built on fixed hardware that won't need upgrading, it make a lot of sense. Get a quieter, cooler box for the components you have, and then over time these'll only get cooler and quieter! I expect the primary reason not to though is cost.

 

[RobertR1]

It lacked upgradeability for sure, but the problem with overheating was because Apple went too far towards silence. If you look at heat management for case volume, with very hot, powerful hardware in a tiny, quiet case, it was clearly more effective than conventional cooling. For the pro market, these qualities don't matter, so it's understandable why they went back to big boxes and big fans. For a console built on fixed hardware that won't need upgrading, it make a lot of sense. Get a quieter, cooler box for the components you have, and then over time these'll only get cooler and quieter! I expect the primary reason not to though is cost.

https://www.gamersnexus.net/hwreviews/3384-cooler-master-sl-600m-review-thermals-build-quality-noise

That's a good consumer case showing the chimey cooling setup.

It has a few good points in that first chipset (gpu in this case) gets very cool air and performs great but then you're exhausting warm air over the rest of the units. While this hurts CPU performance in a split chip design of a PC the mobo VRM's actually rather have some air going over them vs nothing so there are additional benefits. Airflow is pretty OP for VRM cooling in generally.

I'm interested in a tear down to see how they suck in the air and minimize the dust. 7nm+ should run even cooler esp given Ryzen 3000 is pretty easy on thermals and power draw and this will be clocked lower. RDNA2 is unknown and the 5700XT chips actually do run pretty hot. How they intake fresh air will be what I'm most interested in.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

It lacked upgradeability for sure, but the problem with overheating was because Apple went too far towards silence. If you look at heat management for case volume, with very hot, powerful hardware in a tiny, quiet case, it was clearly more effective than conventional cooling.

Even when you used tools to modify the fan behaviour, the 2013 Mac Pro was susceptible to overheating. Apple were quite frank about the thermal issues and why it left them nowhere to develop the product. The trashcan was not a good design for how much blazingly-hot silicon Apple squeezed in there. And believe me, they did not run quiet - source: me, we had eight 2013 Pros!

 

[McHuj]

I think there has to be some sort of intake on the backside (at least I hope)

Given the dimensions of the box, I think they allow for a more traditional PC cooler design since height isn't an issue. It wouldn't surprise me to seem something similar to a Noctua NH-D9L style cooler.

 

[ultragpu]

Proelite, do you know how many CUs or clock speed XSX runs at?

 

[mpg1]

60 CU's @ 1570 MHz gets you 12 TFlops.

 

[AlNom]

what if you had just one Extreme pipe

 

[Proelite]

Proelite, do you know how many CUs or clock speed XSX runs at?

IDK but my educated guess is 48/52 at 2.0ghz/1.8ghz.

 

[PSman1700]

From those verified insiders PS5 is certainly above 10.7TFlops. It’s very likely that SONY is trying to test some extremely high performance (above target performance, like 14TFflops) since they have V shaped case capable of more heat than other consoles.

This is a great example of bullshit. Each time the target jumps up due to the power of make believe.

It's not BS, PS5 will be over 15TF next year, a smaller node and a V shaped design allows such extremes.